Terrorist Threat Persists Despite Al-Qaeda Setbacks, Tenet Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — While the United States is moving closer to fully dismantling terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda organization, the end of the terrorist group will not eliminate the risk of continued attacks against the United States, CIA Director George Tenet said today (see GSN, Feb. 3).

Tenet, along with FBI Director Robert Mueller and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, testified today before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence to give their annual assessment of the terrorist and proliferation threats faced by the United States. In addition to the continuing threat posed by terrorists, the United States over the past year has achieved a mixed record on reducing the threat posed by countries whose nuclear programs make them proliferation concerns, according to the officials.

In his prepared testimony, Tenet described the progress made over the past year-and-a-half in combating al-Qaeda. The United States has killed or captured al-Qaeda leaders involved in every aspect of the group’s operations, from attack planning to training to financing, Tenet said. The war on terrorism has caused massive disruptions to al-Qaeda’s leadership, resulting in local cells being forced to act increasingly on their own, Tenet said.

Tenet warned the committee, however, that al-Qaeda remains a threat. He pointed to attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Indonesia and other countries, and to continued training and funding of regional operations.

“Do not misunderstand me. I am not suggesting al-Qaeda is defeated. It is not.  We are still at war,” he said.

Tenet also highlighted the growing threat posed by smaller and more regional terrorist groups influenced by al-Qaeda’s ideology, which he said portrays the United States as “Islam’s greatest foe.”

“What I want to say to you now may be the most important thing I tell you today,” Tenet told the committee. “The steady growth of Osama bin Laden’s anti-U.S. sentiment through the wider Sunni extremist movement and the broad dissemination of al-Qaeda’s destructive expertise ensure that a serious threat will remain for the foreseeable future — with or without al-Qaeda in the picture,” he said.

Tenet characterized the terrorist groups influenced by al-Qaeda as falling into two types. The first are smaller Sunni Islam extremist groups that have had connections to al-Qaeda itself, such as Ansar al-Islam in Iraq, the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (see GSN, Jan. 9). The second type are small local terrorist groups with domestic agendas, such as the Moroccan-based Salifiya Jihadia, responsible for a set of bombings in Casablanca in May 2003, Tenet said.

According to Tenet, al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups maintain interest in conducting both crude and more sophisticated attacks using weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, June 3, 2003). He said the U.S. intelligence community has detected “a heightened risk” of attacks using various poisons — attacks that could grow in sophistication as non-al-Qaeda groups share methods and tactics.

In addition, the U.S. intelligence community detected over the past year an increasing threat of more sophisticated WMD attacks, Tenet said. He said the most immediate threat facing the United States is al-Qaeda’s efforts to develop anthrax (see GSN, Dec. 2, 2003). Tenet also noted the dissemination of information on constructing a crude chemical weapons device that could cause casualties in a closed area, al-Qaeda’s continued pursuit of a “strategic nuclear capability” and its interest in developing radiological weapons. 

DIA Director Lowell said there were also concerns about the possibility of states or rogue scientists providing WMD-related technical assistance to terrorist groups. 

As for potential targets within the United States, Mueller told the committee that there are “strong indications” that al-Qaeda would revisit targets missed in previous attacks, such as the White House and the U.S. Capitol. Those sites have been previously suggested as intended targets during the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. In addition, al-Qaeda continues to focus on possible attacks against U.S. transportation systems, “particularly the subways and bridges in major cities,” Mueller said.

In their prepared testimonies, both Tenet and Lowell described in a country-by-country fashion the WMD threats posed by several countries of concern to the United States, including Iran and North Korea. Noting the decision made by Libya to dismantle its WMD programs, Tenet praised the successes achieved over the past year in reducing the WMD threat to the United States, but said more work needed to be done.

“[The] picture is changing before our eyes — changing at a rate I have not seen since the end of the Cold War,” Tenet said. “Some of its shows our years of work paying off, and some of it shows the work ahead is harder,” he added.

Both Tenet and Lowell devoted large sections of their prepared testimonies to the threats posed by North Korea, primarily by its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs (see related GSN story, today). 

“The North Korean regime continues to threaten a range of U.S., regional and global security interests,” Tenet said.

The two officials noted the U.S. intelligence community’s belief that North Korea has probably developed one or two nuclear weapons, and said its reported processing of 8,000 spent fuel rods previously stored at the Yongbyon facility has provided enough plutonium for several more warheads. They also said the United States suspects North Korea has developed a uranium enrichment capability in addition to its plutonium-based efforts.

“Pyongyang is expected to increase its weapons inventory by the end of the decade through plutonium production and a possible unlocated uranium enrichment capability,” Lowell said.

North Korea, however, has denied possessing a uranium enrichment program. The contentious issue is likely to be a key topic of discussion during a planned round of multilateral talks on North Korea’s nuclear efforts scheduled to begin tomorrow in Beijing.

Lowell told the committee that North Korea sees its nuclear weapons program as “critical” to its survival. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il believes the rapid U.S. military success against Iraq demonstrated the weaknesses of North Korea’s conventional military forces and heightened the value of nuclear weapons, Lowell said.  

He also said that “we do not know” what conditions would have to be offered to reach an agreement with North Korea that would result in Pyongyang abandoning its nuclear weapons program and submitting to inspections.

In addition to nuclear weapons, Tenet and Lowell also described North Korea’s ballistic missile efforts to the Senate intelligence panel. According to Tenet, North Korea may be near to becoming self-sufficient in developing missiles and continues to procure missile-related components and materials from other countries. While Pyongyang currently maintains a self-imposed moratorium on ballistic missile tests, its Taepodong 2 missile, capable of hitting targets within the United States with a nuclear warhead, “may be ready” now for flight-testing, Tenet said.

Lowell said North Korea is also reportedly close to fielding a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, similar to the Russian SS-N-6 submarine-launched ballistic missile. If the reports are accurate, Lowell said, such a North Korean missile could hit targets within Okinawa, Guam and possibly Alaska.

Regarding Iran, Tenet praised Tehran’s decision to acknowledge its covert nuclear program and to allow international inspections. Last year, Tenet said “no Iranian government, regardless of its ideological leanings, is likely to willingly abandon WMD programs that are seen as guaranteeing Iran’s security.” 

He warned today, however, that Iran’s missile program poses both a “regional threat and a proliferation concern.” Last year, Iran announced plans to develop space-launch vehicles, which contain many of the same components as ICBMs, and it could be able to begin flight-testing such systems by the latter part of the decade, Tenet said.

Lowell went even further , saying that Iran could have the “capability” to deploy an ICBM “by 2015.”

He also said, though, that while Iran is wary of the large U.S. military presence in Iraq, “fears of war” between the United States and Iran have “eased.” U.S. progress in improving the political and economic situations of Iraqis, especially Iraq’s Shiite Muslim community, could improve relations between Washington and Tehran, Lowell said.

In his testimony, Tenet praised the decision announced by Libya late last year to fully disclose and dismantle its WMD programs and outlined the progress made in the effort. Tripoli has acknowledged possessing a nuclear weapons program and nuclear weapon designs and having produced about 25 tons of sulfur mustard agent and “small amounts of nerve agent.” The country’s leaders also provided access to deployed Scud B missiles, and information on indigenous missile design efforts and missile cooperation with North Korea.

Tenet credited U.S. intelligence with having led to the decision by Col. Muammar Qadhafi to move to renounce weapons of mass destruction and to dismantle his own WMD programs.

“Our picture of Libya’s WMD programs allowed CIA officers and their British colleagues to press the Libyans on the right questions, to expose inconsistencies and to convince them that holding back was counterproductive,” he said.

Tenet’s praise of Libya and its efforts to dismantle its WMD programs stands in contrast to assessments included in his testimony during last year’s threat hearing. Then, Tenet said that Libya “clearly intends to re-establish” an offensive chemical weapons capability and that it had produced “at least” 100 tons of chemical agents.

Tenet today also briefly touched on what has been one of the key perceived WMD threats to the United States over the past year — Iraq. During last year’s threat hearing, Tenet laid out a detailed overview of prewar Iraq’s suspected WMD efforts, including mobile biological weapons production facilities and a “pattern of clandestine procurements designed to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program.”

Since the end of Operation Iraqi Freedom almost a year ago, however, coalition forces searching Iraq for evidence of alleged WMD stockpiles and programs have found almost nothing. During his testimony today, Tenet only called for the Iraq Survey Group to continue its search, citing the need to “explore every avenue in our quest to understand Iraq’s program” and to prevent materials or expertise from falling into the hands of other countries of concern or terrorists.

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