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Concerns Grow Over Possible “Dirty Bomb” Attack
There is growing concern among intelligence analysts and independent experts that terrorists could detonate a “dirty bomb” — which combines radioactive materials and conventional explosives — in a U.S. or European city, the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday (see GSN, May 7). While there have been no specific threats of a terrorist attack involving crude nuclear or radiological weapons, senior U.S. and European officials, as well as unofficial experts, said that several factors recently increased concerns over such an incident. The concerns involve three al-Qaeda operatives who conducted dirty bomb and chemical weapons experiments, as well as suspicion that al-Qaeda is planning a large-scale attack, the sources said. In addition, there has been increased discussion on radical Islamic Web sites concerning the use of nuclear weapons against the United States, they said. Governmental and independent experts could not say why terrorists have not yet conducted a dirty bomb attack, according to the Times. “I’m very surprised that a radiological device hasn’t gone off,” said Matthew Bunn of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. “There is a bigger puzzle — why no al-Qaeda attacks since Sept. 11 in the U.S.?” he added. The arrest of a number of al-Qaeda operatives has hindered the group’s ability to plan large-scale attacks, a European intelligence official said. The official added, though, that “the division is still focused on spectaculars, and they take three or four years to plan and execute.” According to counterterrorism experts, al-Qaeda has seemingly divided into two tiers — one that focuses on so-called “soft” targets, such as the conventional bomb attacks in Indonesia, Morocco and Spain, and another group of more experienced operatives involved in longer-term planning for an attack in the United States or Europe. “There is a sense that one part of al-Qaeda is waiting and putting into place the big, spectacular attack,” said Magnus Ranstorp, director of the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. “It will come out of left field, and it may well be a dirty bomb,” Ranstorp said (Douglas Frantz, Los Angeles Times, May 9).
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