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China: New Export Control Regulations Are Significant, Experts Say By Mike Nartker Under the regulations, which have gone into effect, Chinese companies wishing to export ballistic missiles or missile-related items and technologies included on a control list must first apply for a license from the Chinese government. The receiving party must guarantee to China that the items will only be used for their stated end use and will not be retransferred to another party without Chinese consent. The regulations, published last week in China’s state-owned People’s Daily newspaper, also call for penalties and criminal charges against businesses that export missile-related items without a license. China’s new export control list is divided into two sections — Part I, which concerns the direct export of ballistic missiles, space launch vehicles, cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles — and Part II, which concerns missile-related items and technologies. This approach is similar to that of the Missile Technology Control Regime control list, according to Richard Speier, a former Pentagon official who served on the U.S. negotiating team for the MTCR. While the MTCR control list also has an explicit refusal of the transfer of complete ballistic missile production facilities, the Chinese list does not have this prohibition, Speier said. A number of arms proliferation experts praised China for releasing the regulations and control list. Robert Einhorn, former U.S. assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, said the Chinese regulations were “quite significant.” The regulations will give China the necessary tools to carry out a responsible policy toward missile-related exports, Einhorn said, adding that China now needed to make a political decision to act responsibly. By issuing the new regulations, China is trying to send a message that it is not an “egregious proliferator,” said Steve LaMontagne, an analyst at the Council for a Livable World. The new regulations can be seen as a response to past U.S. calls for clarification of the Chinese export control system, LaMontagne said. The new regulations also help address concerns by a number of countries, including the United States, over the transparency of China’s export control system, said Richard Bush, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution. China had previously said it had such a system, but until now, “who knew what it was?” Bush asked. The regulations also give other countries a standard with which to compare China’s performance, he said. Peter Scoblic, editor of Arms Control Today at the Arms Control Association, said the new regulations are a positive development, praising their specificity. By implementing the new regulations, China will be able to keep a pledge it made in November 2000 to curb missile exports, Scoblic said (see GSN, Jan. 31). Effectiveness While praising China for issuing the new missile export control regulations, the experts said Beijing’s past behavior casts some doubt on their effectiveness (see GSN, July 12). China’s history of cooperation on nonproliferation issues is one of “one step forward, two steps back,” LaMontagne said. China’s cooperation has often been linked to U.S. policies, LaMontagne said, and U.S. actions, such as increased support for Taiwan, could lead to a retraction of the regulations. A “wait-and-see” approach is needed in order to determine the effectiveness of the new regulations, Scoblic said. China has previously broken pledges to curb missile proliferation, he said. LaMontagne agreed, saying that evidence of Chinese transfers of missile-related technologies could still come to light. Bush agreed that the enforcement of the new regulations remains a major issue. The White House does not see the new regulations as a “magic cure” for concerns over China’s proliferation, but as “one more therapy,” he said. Einhorn, however, said some of China’s past proliferation problems could be traced to a lack of an export control system. Despite China’s past behavior, there is hope that the issuing of the new regulations will lead to better enforcement, Einhorn said. There are similarities between China’s recent attempts to control missile-related exports and past moves to curb nuclear weapons-related exports, according to Einhorn. China had an irresponsible policy toward nuclear weapon-related exports until Beijing made pledge to enact a more visible control system, Einhorn said. Once that pledge was made, China’s behavior improved. Quid Pro Quo China’s decision to issue the new regulations could be an attempt to create a more favorable climate for a U.S.-Chinese summit next month in Washington, Einhorn said, finding it significant, that China issued the new regulations without a “quid pro quo” from the United States. China, is expected to come to the October summit with some goals, possibly including the lifting of sanctions on a number of Chinese companies and on the launching of commercial satellites onboard Chinese rockets, which is seen as being potentially profitable, Bush said (see GSN, July 25). The United States, however, will want some things in return for an end to the sanctions, such as China’s punishing of companies for past behavior, he said. The United States will probably wait to see China’s track record of enforcing the new controls before it responds with any gestures of its own, Einhorn said. Other Agreements In a statement accompanying the missile export control regulations, a spokesman said China is ready to participate in international discussions concerning nonproliferation. “China will continue to take an active part in the international cooperation in nonproliferation, and is ready to conduct in-depth exchange and consultation with all parties concerned and actively participate in multilateral discussions and cooperation in this regard,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said in a press statement. Even with the new regulations, however, it is unlikely that China will choose to join the MTCR, experts said. China has previously been unwilling to join the regime because it played no role in its creation, Bush said, adding that the new regulations could be a unilateral attempt to achieve the same ends. Einhorn, however, said that China could be indicating a new willingness to join the MTCR by issuing the regulations. When China enacted a nuclear-weapons export control system, it also decided to join the Zangger Committee, an export control system designed to help the implementation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Einhorn said. The committee is the only international export control regime to which China belongs. For further information, see: Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Export Control of Missiles and Missile-related Items and Technologies (People’s Daily) U.S. State Department MTCR Summary
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