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Former U.S. Officials, Experts, Charge Bolton With Exaggerating Proliferation Threats
Nonproliferation experts and former U.S. intelligence officials have criticized U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton for exaggerating the WMD proliferation threats posed by Cuba, Libya and Syria, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 10). “Very often, the points he makes have some truth to them, but he simply goes beyond where the facts tell intelligent people they should go,” said Carl Ford, the recently retired former head of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Nonproliferation experts also charged Bolton with exaggerating the proliferation threat posed by some countries. “Undersecretary Bolton repeatedly goes beyond the current public intelligence estimates in his description of the proliferation threats,” said Joseph Cirincione, director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “He offers definitive judgments where there is, at best, only informed speculation about capabilities. In some cases, notably his claim that Cuba has biological weapons, he goes way beyond known capabilities,” Cirincione said (see GSN, May 15, 2002). Bolton, however, has strongly denied using intelligence for political purposes and has said that all of his statements on the WMD capabilities of certain countries were cleared in advance by the appropriate agencies. “I have always used intelligence properly,” Bolton said. “Of course, I sometimes go beyond previous statements, but in every case I do, it’s been previously cleared. You bet I do — we do it all the time,” he added. The alleged WMD capabilities of Cuba is the area where Bolton has come into the most conflict with other officials and experts, according to the Times. Three current and former State officials have said that Bolton tried to pressure them into endorsing his view that Cuba had developed a biological weapons program, the Times reported (see GSN, June 25). “Bolton wanted to go far beyond what the intelligence community would support,” said Greg Thielmann, former head of the INR Strategic, Proliferation and Military Affairs Office. His assertions about Cuba’s biological weapons were “pure surmise as far as I know,” Thielmann said. Bolton dismissed Thielmann’s criticism. “Thielmann knows nothing,” Bolton said. “I wanted to state the best assessment the intelligence bureau had on Cuba’s (bioweapons) program, and I believe I did,” he added. In a May 2002 speech, Bolton said the United States “believes Cuba has at least a limited offensive biological warfare research and development effort” and that Cuba had provided dual-use biological equipment to “rogue states.” After Bolton’s speech, Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense Information, led a delegation to Cuba to learn more about Havana’s biotechnology efforts, according to the Times. Blair said the trip “confirmed the prevailing U.S. intelligence view that insufficient evidence exists to either accuse or exonerate Cuba. I do not believe that any reliable evidence, secret or public, exists to support Bolton’s accusation that Cuba has a bioweapons program” (see GSN, March 13). “He is either deceiving the public or himself, or both, and should be fired,” Blair said. Bolton and a U.S. intelligence official, however, disputed that Bolton’s speech did not reflect the U.S. intelligence view on Cuba, according to the Times. Since last spring, new information has arrived that has led to a reassessment by some analysts who previously doubted the progress made by Cuba and Syria in developing weapons of mass destruction, the intelligence official said. “One-quarter say he’s wrong, a quarter back him, and the rest don’t have an opinion,” the official said (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 3).
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