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U.S. Defense Officials Predict Growing Ballistic Missile Proliferation
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld last week said that he believed there would be a significant increase in the number of countries armed with ballistic missiles within the next 20 years, according to Aviation Week & Space Technology (see GSN, Nov. 11). In a closed-circuit speech to a missile defense conference, Rumsfeld said the number of countries armed with ballistic missiles was likely to “double in the next decade or two.” Rumsfeld blamed the spread of ballistic missile technology primarily on North Korea, which he dubbed “the world’s most aggressive proliferator.” U.S. intelligence has also estimated a large increase in ballistic missile arsenals around the world, particularly those missiles with ranges of 500-3,500 kilometers, Aviation Week reported. Kenneth Knight, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency’s defense warning office, said that both Iran’s and North Korea’s missile programs continue to make progress, noting that Tehran could quickly deploy Shahab 3 missiles, with a range of 1,300 kilometers, and is continuing work on longer-range variants (see GSN, Nov. 10). North Korea could likely make quick progress in developing its Taepodong 2 missile if it were to resume flight-testing, Knight said (see GSN, Oct. 30). In addition to an increase in the number of missiles worldwide, there has been an increase in system capabilities, Knight said. “I’m not sure we’ve even seen the worst yet,” he said (Robert Wall, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Dec. 15).
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