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Threat Assessment: Latest CIA Report Assesses WMD Proliferation; Highlights North Korea By David Ruppe The congressionally mandated assessment covers the first half of 2002 and assesses the WMD threat posed by nations of concern to the United States, including North Korea, Iran, Libya, Syria, Sudan, India and Pakistan. The report excludes countries already possessing substantial weapons of mass destruction, namely China and Russia, and those “that demonstrated little WMD acquisition activity of concern.” Cuba, which Bush administration officials have said has a limited biological weapons research and development “effort,” was not included (see GSN, May 7, 2002). North Korea For the most part the report repeats previous assessments of other countries’ suspected WMD pursuits, but it does offer new descriptions of North Korea’s capabilities. The assessment says North Korea began seeking centrifuge-related materials in large quantities in 2001, and that its goal “appears to be a plant that could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for two or more nuclear weapons per year when fully operational.” The report does not, however, include language that appeared in the previous report: “North Korea probably has produced enough plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons.” Separately, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said yesterday that “there is no clear evidence” to support previous U.S. allegations that Pyongyang has developed nuclear weapons (see related GSN story, today). In a more explicit description than previously made, the report said North Korea has chemical warfare capabilities that include an ability to produce bulk quantities of nerve, blister, choking and blood agents and during the last half of 2002 was believed to possess “a sizeable stockpile of such agents and weapons, which it could have employed in a variety of delivery means.” It said, further, North Korea in the latter half of 2002 was believed to have possessed a biological weapons munitions production infrastructure “that would have allowed it to weaponize BW agents and may have such weapons available for use.” Iran The report says Iran “has” technology that could support fissile material production for a nuclear bomb, as opposed to the previous assessment that Iran had sought foreign materials and technology for that purpose. The assessment also states more bluntly than before that Iran “probably maintains an offensive” biological weapons program. The previous assessment said certain foreign imports have legitimate uses, “but Iran’s biological warfare program also could benefit from them.” “It is likely that Iran has capabilities to produce small quantities of BW agents, but has a limited ability to weaponize them,” the latest report says. Libya and Syria While senior Bush administration officials have recently stepped up charges that Libya is seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction, the CIA report largely repeats its earlier assessment that Libya continues to develop its civilian nuclear infrastructure and to seek technical information on WMD development (see GSN, April 7). Administration officials also lately have identified Syria as a proliferation concern, but the assessment includes no new information, noting Syrian efforts to increase its civilian nuclear infrastructure. The report also charges that Syria possesses stocks of the nerve agent sarin and is developing more toxic nerve agents with aid from foreign sources. The report adds that it is “highly probable” Syria continues to develop an offensive biological weapons capability. Terrorists The report says the threat of terrorists using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear materials “continued to rise.” “Increased publicity surrounding the anthrax incidents since the September 11 attacks has highlighted the vulnerability of civilian and government targets to CBRN attacks,” it said. Using more assertive language than previously, the assessment says, “terrorist groups are capable of conducting attacks using radiological dispersal devices.”
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