Iranian representative to the IAEA Ali Akbar Salehi in Vienna today. Iran maneuvered to gain a friendlier resolution from the IAEA Board of Governors, which began meeting this morning (AFP/Getty). Iran Balks at Intrusive Inspections; European Draft Buffeted By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire VIENNA — In an abridged day of talks here at the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iranian delegates succeeded today in postponing the IAEA Board of Governors’ discussion of more intrusive nuclear inspections in Iran, while the board failed to come closer to agreement on a European draft resolution on the country’s acknowledged, longstanding concealment of nuclear activities (see GSN, Nov. 19)...Full Story

Lugar Calls for Permanent Presidential CTR Waiver Authority By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) yesterday called on Congress to provide the president with a permanent authority to waive certification requirements to allow Russia to receive U.S. cooperative threat reduction funding (see GSN, Nov. 11)...Full Story

Iraq’s “Built-In” WMD System Posed Threat, Former Chief U.N. Inspector Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Iraq’s lingering WMD architecture, including cadres of weapons scientists, posed a threat to the international community before the United States invaded this year, former chief U.N. weapons inspector Rolf Ekeus told Global Security Newswire yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 17)...Full Story

	Thursday, November 20, 2003

Lugar Calls for Permanent Presidential CTR Waiver Authority By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) yesterday called on Congress to provide the president with a permanent authority to waive certification requirements to allow Russia to receive U.S. cooperative threat reduction funding (see GSN, Nov. 11). The United States helps fund Russian efforts to secure and destroy its WMD stockpiles through the Cooperative Threat Reduction program, also known as the Nunn-Lugar program for its creators — Lugar and former Senator Sam Nunn (D-Ga.). Under current law, the president must first certify that Russia is meeting six congressionally mandated conditions before U.S. CTR funds can be expended. The certification conditions require a country receiving CTR assistance: to make a “substantial investment of its own resources” for destroying weapons of mass destruction; to forgo military modernization that exceeds legitimate defense needs; to forgo using fissile materials taken from destroyed nuclear weapons in new nuclear weapons; to aid U.S. verification of the destruction of weapons of mass destruction involving U.S. funds; to comply with all relevant arms control agreements; and to observe internationally recognized human rights, according to a Lugar press release. Last year, however, the White House for the first time could not certify that Russia had met all six conditions. In particular the arms control compliance provision raised difficulties as U.S. officials have complained that Russia has not disclosed the full extent of its chemical weapons stockpile and its suspected biological weapons programs. As a result, U.S. President George W. Bush sought and obtained the authority to waive the certification requirements for one year, an authority he exercised in January. A provision expanding the presidential waiver authority to 2005 was included in the fiscal 2004 defense authorization bill, which was passed by both houses of Congress earlier this month. In a speech yesterday before a conference held here by the Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, Lugar called on Congress to comply with White House requests to make the waiver authority permanent. “This bureaucratic logjam must be corrected. I share the policy goals associated with the certification requirements, but the elimination of weapons of mass destruction must be our top priority,” he said. While Russian officials have worked to satisfy five of the six certification requirements, Lugar said, Russian officials still needed to provide a “full and accurate disclosure” of Russia’s chemical weapons stockpile because of concerns that Russia’s Chemical Weapons Convention declaration was not accurate. He called on Russia to resolve the matter this year. Lugar also called for increased Russian cooperation regarding CTR efforts related to Russia’s biological weapons program. Currently, four former Russian military facilities refuse to cooperate with CTR efforts, he said, adding that some Russian officials maintain the “audacious” position that the former Soviet Union never possessed a biological weapons program. “Our Russian partners must get over this denial and obfuscation. We are anxious to assist Russia in transforming these facilities to peaceful purposes. But success depends on honesty and transparency,” Lugar said. During his remarks yesterday, Lugar praised Congress for allowing as much as $50 million in CTR funding to be used for projects outside the former Soviet Union, a provision that was also included in the fiscal 2004 defense authorization bill.  “This new venture, like its predecessor, will take time to organize and to establish operating procedures, but I am hopeful that a decade from now, we will look back on this effort and marvel at the successes we have enjoyed,” Lugar said. He also said, however, that the initial $50 million would not be enough to fund a large number of projects outside the former Soviet Union if the United States “ever got serious” about the effort. Lugar yesterday declined to propose candidate countries for projects under the expanded effort. “I’m going to refuse that impulse,” he said. [EDITOR’S NOTE: Sam Nunn is chief executive officer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and Richard Lugar serves on NTI’s Board of Directors. NTI is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by National Journal Group.] Back to top       Iraq’s “Built-In” WMD System Posed Threat, Former Chief U.N. Inspector Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Iraq’s lingering WMD architecture, including cadres of weapons scientists, posed a threat to the international community before the United States invaded this year, former chief U.N. weapons inspector Rolf Ekeus told Global Security Newswire yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 17). Prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom, the Bush administration asserted that Iraq held actual stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction and related WMD programs, but coalition forces scouring the country following the overthrow of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein have had relatively little success in finding evidence to back such claims. Last month, chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq David Kay reported that his Iraqi Survey Group had uncovered no actual weapons of mass destruction or evidence of active chemical and nuclear weapons programs in Iraq. Kay also reported, though, that a large number of WMD program-related activities had been discovered. In a brief interview with GSN yesterday on the sidelines of a conference held here by the Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, Ekeus said that prewar Iraq’s “built-in” WMD system posed a threat to the international community (see GSN, Sept. 5). Ekeus is the former executive chairman of the U.N. Special Commission on Iraq, which conducted weapons inspections in Iraq following the 1991 Gulf War. He also said, however, that he believed that international inspections conducted in Iraq immediately before the U.S.-led invasion began would have been successful if they had been allowed to continue. He described the effort carried out by UNSCOM’s successor, the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), as a “search job” and said that UNMOVIC had not been structured to penetrate Iraqi WMD capabilities, which would have required the addition of additional scientists and technicians to the inspection teams. During a conference panel, Ekeus praised the efforts of UNSCOM’s inspections in Iraq, noting that the organization had discovered a secret Iraqi program to manufacture VX nerve agent and the existence of an Iraqi biological weapons program. He also discounted the impact of information provided by Iraqi defector Hussein Kamal al-Majid on UNSCOM’s search for evidence of Iraqi biological weapons efforts. According to reports, al-Majid, a son-in-law of Hussein who defected in 1995, provided information that led UNSCOM to find a supply of documents at an Iraqi chicken farm. Ekeus said yesterday, however, that it was “good homework” on the part of UNSCOM that cracked Iraq’s secret WMD programs. Back to top       CIA Expands Internal Inquiry Into Prewar U.S. Intelligence on Iraq The CIA this week has expanded its internal inquiry into prewar U.S. intelligence on Iraq, with the aim of determining if signs were missed prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom that Iraq had destroyed its weapons of mass destruction, according to USA Today (see GSN, Nov. 4). A four-member team of former senior CIA analysts has conducted the CIA inquiry, which was broadened on the order of agency Director George Tenet, since early this year. The inquiry will now examine more of the 20 volumes of raw intelligence on Iraq, according to USA Today. The expanded inquiry was disclosed by two intelligence officials and confirmed by former CIA Deputy Director Richard Kerr, who heads the four-member analyst team, USA Today reported. “It’s important to figure out, from an intelligence point of view, if we didn’t do it well, how could we have done better,” Kerr said (John Diamond, USA Today, Nov. 20). Back to top       NATO Exercises New Rapid Response Force NATO officials today unveiled their new rapid response force in a series of war games involving Czech, French, German, Spanish and Turkish military units (see GSN, Sept. 25, 2002). The new force is scheduled to be at full strength by 2006 and include 20,000 elite military personnel from Europe and North America. The current exercise involves about 1,000 personnel dealing with a terrorist threat to U.N. personnel on the coast of Turkey. Czech troops, specially trained in dealing with chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, are set to step in during the simulation to address a WMD threat (see GSN, Oct. 9). NATO’s military commander, U.S. Marine Gen. James Jones, praised the new effort and said it will keep the alliance relevant. “It marks an important recognition on the part of the alliance that the international security environment has changed dramatically,” Jones said (Paul Ames, Associated Press/Tuscaloosanews.com, Nov. 20). Back to top

Iran Balks at Intrusive Inspections; European Draft Buffeted By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire VIENNA — In an abridged day of talks here at the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iranian delegates succeeded today in postponing the IAEA Board of Governors’ discussion of more intrusive nuclear inspections in Iran, while the board failed to come closer to agreement on a European draft resolution on the country’s acknowledged, longstanding concealment of nuclear activities (see GSN, Nov. 19). The panel is meeting following an agreement reached by European foreign ministers recently in Tehran under which Iran agreed to sign the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement — allowing for more intrusive nuclear monitoring — and to suspend its uranium enrichment activities. Last week, the IAEA submitted a report to the board detailing a long series of new Iranian acknowledgments about secret nuclear activities, including production of small amounts of plutonium and low-enriched uranium (see GSN, Nov. 11). In a related development, the Associated Press has reported, the IAEA has determined that Russia, China and Pakistan are the sources of equipment Iran claims was “contaminated” with traces of highly enriched uranium when the equipment was imported into Iran. The board was expected today to consider Iran’s protocol, but Iran balked at broaching the subject before the board settles on language for the resolution, in which it is sure to be taken to task to at least some extent. France, Germany and the United Kingdom crafted the draft resolution, which the United States and others have criticized as too weak. “The Iranians upped the ante today by implicitly threatening not to sign the Additional Protocol,” said a Western diplomat. According to a source familiar with this morning’s proceedings, Iranian Ambassador Ali Akbar Salehi said in the closed-door meeting that Iran’s vow to sign the protocol depends on arrangements it worked out recently with visiting European foreign ministers. The protocol is now scheduled to be taken up at the end of the board’s meeting, which was initially scheduled for today and tomorrow but now appears likely to run into next week. “They played the whole thing brilliantly,” the diplomat said of Iran’s move today. Another diplomat characterized the move as a clever bluff by Iran, which is not a member of the board and is participating in the talks only as an observer. The board unexpectedly adjourned for the day at lunchtime today. Board members, including the three European countries that prepared the draft, the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the Netherlands, are now in talks aimed at finding resolution language amenable to a critical mass of the governors. Diplomats said the European draft is still technically the basis for the board’s talks but stands to be changed substantially in key sections. The diplomats added that the changes will fall short of sending the matter to the U.N. Security Council, a measure the United States officially supports and which could lead to international sanctions against Iran. “The morphing EU-3 draft is still the basis for discussions,” said a diplomat. According to interviews, however, the measure appears likely to shift toward the U.S. approach, which two diplomats said relies on “the stick” where the Europeans prefer to hold out “the carrot.” One of the diplomats said the United States is focusing on “process” rather than “results” ― that is, favoring a more punitive approach and all but rejecting the Europeans’ idea of offering economic and other incentives to Iran for its compliance ― because “the process is the example for the future.” In one example provided by a diplomat here of controversial language in the original European draft, the board would limit itself to saying it “notes with serious concern” Iran’s record of concealment. “That would be a godsend for Iran, to get away that lightly,” the diplomat said, adding that the language raised objections from not only the United States but also some IAEA officials and even members of the Nonaligned Movement, which has in the past sought to soften the board’s stance toward Iran. No less a figure than IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei appeared to question the European approach this morning. In an implicit correction of European officials’ recent focus on Iran’s new honesty, ElBaradei told the board that both “newly available information and an array of new technologies” have allowed the agency to “shed light on verification outcomes that contradicted the explanations provided [by Iran] and on questions that remained unanswered.” ElBaradei said Iran is guilty of “many breaches and failures … to comply with its obligations under its safeguards agreement.” Whether the board should cite Iranian “breaches,” “noncompliance” or some other term is a matter of some disagreement among board members. One diplomat said that “in [ElBaradei’s] mind, ‘breach’ is tougher than ‘noncompliance,’ but ‘noncompliance’ in this forum has a specific meaning” ― potentially, a referral to the Security Council. “The agency continued to press systematically and professionally for the correct explanations and the right answers,” ElBaradei said in his statement, “but the process remained slow, piecemeal and frustrating at times.” ElBaradei nevertheless kept his distance from the tough U.S. approach, saying the IAEA should stick to “verification and diplomacy” in seeking to ensure Iran respects its commitments, and he praised Iran for opening a “new chapter of implementation” in the past month that has been “characterized by active cooperation and openness.” “I am pleased to note that corrective actions have already been taken or are being taken. However, these breaches and failures are, of themselves, a matter of deep concern and run counter to both the letter and the spirit of the safeguards agreement,” ElBaradei said. ElBaradei repeated the view expressed in the report that the IAEA has “no proof to date that Iran’s past undeclared activities have been linked to a nuclear weapons program.” “The report before you,” ElBaradei told the board, “is factual and comprehensive. It is intended to enable the board to exercise its responsibilities, prerogatives and options. I trust that in doing so, you will continue to foster the joint efforts of member states and the Secretariat to do their utmost to ensure full respect for nonproliferation obligations, primarily through verification and diplomacy.” “In the case of Iran,” he concluded, “we have made a good start, but we need to stay the course.” One diplomat placed the debate over how to handle Iran’s behavior in the context of recent Western dealings with Iraq and North Korea, the other two countries in U.S. President George W. Bush’s “axis of evil.” “Iraq,” the diplomat said, “showed the folly of military action [alone]. North Korea showed that diplomacy alone also doesn’t get you anywhere. … Maybe Iran is the test case that brings the two together.” Back to top       Kelly Visits South Korea, Discusses Potential Deal for Pyongyang South Korean and U.S. officials met today to continue drafting a security guarantee that they could offer North Korea when multilateral talks on the Korean nuclear crisis resume (see GSN, Nov. 19). James Kelly, the top U.S. envoy to Asia, and South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Soo-hyuck spent two hours poring over the proposed document. “They are discussing detailed wording,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Kim Sun-heung. The process, Kim said, was in the “early stages” (Charles Whelan, Agence France-Presse, Nov. 20). North Korean officials, meanwhile, told the executive director of the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization that Pyongyang wants compensation for the stoppage of work on two nuclear power plants (see GSN, Nov. 13). Charles Kartman, who visited Pyongyang earlier this week, rejected the demand, saying that North Korea initially violated the 1994 agreement that provided for the power plants. He said also that the work had been suspended, not terminated, Yonhap News Agency reported (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, Nov. 20). Back to top       Top Test Ban Treaty Official to Step Down in 2005 The head of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Organization announced last week that he would step down in 2005 (see GSN, Feb. 21). Wolfgang Hoffmann, executive secretary of the Preparatory Commission of the CTBT Organization, said he would not seek an extension of his contract past July 31, 2005. He added that this would allow for enough time to choose a successor. Hoffmann made his announcement during the commission’s 21st session, which ended Nov. 13 (CTBT Organization release, Nov. 19). Back to top       Pentagon Exploring Unpiloted Bomber With Global Reach U.S. defense officials have awarded contracts to three defense contractors to investigate designs and technologies for a unpiloted, hypersonic bomber that would be able to strike targets anywhere in the world in less than two hours, the Los Angeles Daily News reported Tuesday (see GSN, Oct. 28). Lockheed Martin, Andrews Space and Northrop Grumman were awarded the contracts under a U.S. Air Force and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program to minimize U.S. reliance on foreign bases. Pentagon officials are seeking a bomber that would be able to fly at least 3,500 miles per hour and carry 12,000 pounds of missiles or other munitions. The Defense Department is hoping to field an early version of the system by 2010. “This capability would free the U.S. military from reliance on forward basing to enable it to react promptly and decisively to destabilizing or threatening actions by hostile countries and terrorist organizations,” according to the contract solicitation (Jim Skeen, Los Angeles Daily News, Nov. 18). Back to top

Canada Pledges More Than $25 Million for Russian Chemical Weapons Destruction Canada yesterday signed an agreement with Russia to provide more than $25 million to aid Russian chemical weapons disposal efforts, according to the Montreal Gazette (see GSN, Nov. 19). The funds will be used to build an 18-kilometer road to a Russian chemical weapons disposal facility currently under construction near the city of Shchuchye. The United Kingdom will manage the funds on Canada’s behalf, the Gazette reported.  The Canadian-Russian agreement is part of Canada’s commitment to the Group of Eight’s $20-billion Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction (see GSN, Nov. 14). Under the partnership, Canada has agreed to provide $1 billion over 10 years for nonproliferation efforts (Michael Mainville, Montreal Gazette, Nov. 20). Back to top

MDA Investigating Terminal Phase Defense Against ICBMs The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is investigating the possibility of developing a terminal-phase missile interceptor for use against long-range ballistic missiles, Aerospace Daily reported today. Defense officials began an internal assessment of the prospective Long-Range Atmospheric Defense system about a year ago, according to Gary Payton, MDA’s deputy for advanced systems. The agency will continue a “conceptual investigation” for another 12-18 months before deciding whether to solicit information from defense contractors. If a feasible concept is developed, Payton said MDA could demonstrate the system in 2012 and field it in 2014. To address the long-range missile threat, the agency has pursued two boost-phase interceptors — the Kinetic Energy Interceptor and the Airborne Laser — as well as the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system. MDA officials have not yet attempted to develop a terminal-phase interceptor for ICBMs. “Our job is to defend every phase of flight, so we need a defense of terminal,” Payton said. The LRAD system might be an outgrowth of a terminal-phase system to defend against shorter-range missiles that is already being pursued, such as the Theater High-Altitude Area Defense system. LRAD “might be a growth version of THAAD, a THAAD on steroids or it might be a new interceptor,” Payton said (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily, Nov. 20). Back to top       U.S. Forces in South Korea Receive Advanced Patriot System U.S. Army forces at Osan Air Base in South Korea recently received the improved Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missile defense system, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Sept. 19). Army Capt. Ryan Foxworth, commander of a Patriot battery at the air base, said the new missile defense system had arrived in the last two months. Osan sits only 50 miles from North Korea and missile defense personnel there had been operating with an older Patriot missile interceptor system. “Anything that flies the profile of a (tactical ballistic missile), we can track it,” Foxworth said. “And if we can track it, we can knock it down,” he added. Foxworth said that the Patriot system is effective against the North Korean Scud or medium-range Nodong missiles (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Nov. 20). Back to top

Experts Warn of Ease of Attack on U.S. Food Supply Experts warned a U.S. Senate panel yesterday that it would be easy for terrorists to conduct primitive and effective attacks on the U.S. food supply and the agriculture industry, according to Knight-Ridder (see GSN, Oct. 15). Pathogens that cause animal diseases, such as foot-and-mouth disease, are easy to obtain and can be spread quickly, Tom McGinn, director of emergency programs for the North Carolina Agriculture and Consumer Services Department, told the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee. For example, if terrorists chose to attack a small number of livestock herds with foot-and-mouth disease, the disease could spread to 23 states in five days, causing billions of dollars of damage, McGinn said. “Agriculture is the perfect target and the perfect weapon,” McGinn said. “Imagine what it would be like to become a nation concerned about opening our refrigerators?” he added. Peter Chalk, an analyst with RAND, said the U.S. agriculture industry and food supply would probably remain lesser targets for terrorists. He added, however, that consolidation in the agriculture industry has concentrated large amounts of livestock in a small number of places, making them more susceptible to disease (Andrew Martin, Knight-Ridder/Oklahoma Daily, Nov. 20).   Back to top

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