Two Iraqi ballistic missiles recovered by U.S. forces after Operation Iraqi Freedom. Captured Iraqi officials have said that even this year, Saddam Hussein actively pursued several illegal missile programs (AFP/Getty). Hussein Ordered Several Long-Range Missile Programs Prior to War, Aziz Says Former Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz has told U.S. forces that, while Iraq did not possess stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had ordered several secret programs to develop or purchase long-range ballistic missiles, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 6)...Full Story

Iranian Religious Leader Warns Against Excessive Foreign Pressure Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the top official in Iran, has said that Tehran would not cooperate with U.N. nuclear inspectors if the nation were faced with heightened international pressure or “excessive demands,” the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 31)...Full Story

Smallpox Terrorism Should Be Feared Less, Scientist Says An analysis of historical smallpox outbreaks suggests that the disease is less contagious than many public health planners fear and is an improbable tool for terrorists, a Scottish university researcher concluded in a recent paper (see GSN, Oct. 28)...Full Story

	Monday, November 3, 2003

Hussein Ordered Several Long-Range Missile Programs Prior to War, Aziz Says Former Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz has told U.S. forces that, while Iraq did not possess stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had ordered several secret programs to develop or purchase long-range ballistic missiles, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Oct. 6). Aziz has described one discussion he had with Hussein in 1999, when Hussein said that U.N. Resolution 687 prohibited Iraq from possessing long-range missiles only if they were armed with weapons of mass destruction. Aziz told Hussein, “No, it’s a range limit” and that all missiles with a range beyond 150 kilometers were banned, according to a senior U.S. official familiar with interrogation reports. Hussein then said, “No, I want to go ahead,” according to the senior U.S. official (Steve Coll, Washington Post, Nov. 3). The United States has learned through captured Iraqi documents and interrogations with Iraqi officials that two teams of Yugoslav missile experts traveled to Iraq in 2001 to help extend the range of Iraqi Scud missiles by attaching several rocket motors together, a senior U.S. official said. The official added that the Yugoslav experts and experts from a second country worked in Iraq into 2003 (Kempe/Cloud, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 3). “We know the regime had the greatest problem with the 150-kilometer limit” on missile ranges, said Hamish Killip, a former U.N. arms inspector now working with the Iraq Survey Group. Hussein and senior Iraqi military officers viewed the U.N.-imposed missile-range limit “as an invasion of their sovereignty,” Killip said. The Iraq Survey Group, however, has found no similar evidence that Iraq was willing after 1999 to violate U.N. bans on the development of weapons of mass destruction, officials said. “They seem to have made a mental separation between long-range missiles and weapons of mass destruction,” Killip said. Several high-ranking captured Iraqi officials have said Hussein believed that Iraq gained international respect by the perception that it had weapons of mass destruction, according to the Washington Post. Hussein believed other Arab countries respected him because they believed he possessed weapons of mass destruction, and Hussein did not want to reveal otherwise, the captured officials said. “From a military point of view, if you did have a special weapon, you should keep it secret to achieve tactical surprise. … But he wanted the whole region to look at him as a grand leader. And during the period when the Americans were massing troops in Kuwait, he wanted to deter the prospect of war,” Iraqi Maj. Gen. Walid Mohammed Taiee said in an interview with the Post. When asked by interrogators if Hussein was also trying to mislead Iran because of fears that Tehran might be developing similar weapons, Aziz said Hussein discounted the idea that Iran posed a threat, the Post reported. Aziz said, “Every time I brought up the issue with Saddam, he said, ‘Don’t worry about the Iranians. If they ever get WMD, the Americans and Israelis will destroy them,’” according to the senior U.S. official familiar with interrogation reports (Coll, Washington Post). ElBaradei Calls For Return of U.N. Inspectors to Iraq Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency Director Mohamed ElBaradei said yesterday that U.N. weapons inspectors should be allowed to return to Iraq as soon as possible to “finish the job.” All the evidence that has been made public so far “supports our tentative conclusion before the war that we haven’t seen any evidence that Iraq was trying to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program,” ElBaradei said. “We need to bring that file to closure,” he said. “We need to show the international community that Iraq is completely clean from any effort to reconstitute a nuclear weapon program,” ElBaradei added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 2). Back to top       Former U.S. Officials, Experts, Charge Bolton With Exaggerating Proliferation Threats Nonproliferation experts and former U.S. intelligence officials have criticized U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton for exaggerating the WMD proliferation threats posed by Cuba, Libya and Syria, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, Oct. 10). “Very often, the points he makes have some truth to them, but he simply goes beyond where the facts tell intelligent people they should go,” said Carl Ford, the recently retired former head of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Nonproliferation experts also charged Bolton with exaggerating the proliferation threat posed by some countries. “Undersecretary Bolton repeatedly goes beyond the current public intelligence estimates in his description of the proliferation threats,” said Joseph Cirincione, director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “He offers definitive judgments where there is, at best, only informed speculation about capabilities. In some cases, notably his claim that Cuba has biological weapons, he goes way beyond known capabilities,” Cirincione said (see GSN, May 15, 2002). Bolton, however, has strongly denied using intelligence for political purposes and has said that all of his statements on the WMD capabilities of certain countries were cleared in advance by the appropriate agencies. “I have always used intelligence properly,” Bolton said. “Of course, I sometimes go beyond previous statements, but in every case I do, it’s been previously cleared. You bet I do — we do it all the time,” he added. The alleged WMD capabilities of Cuba is the area where Bolton has come into the most conflict with other officials and experts, according to the Times. Three current and former State officials have said that Bolton tried to pressure them into endorsing his view that Cuba had developed a biological weapons program, the Times reported (see GSN, June 25). “Bolton wanted to go far beyond what the intelligence community would support,” said Greg Thielmann, former head of the INR Strategic, Proliferation and Military Affairs Office. His assertions about Cuba’s biological weapons were “pure surmise as far as I know,” Thielmann said. Bolton dismissed Thielmann’s criticism. “Thielmann knows nothing,” Bolton said. “I wanted to state the best assessment the intelligence bureau had on Cuba’s (bioweapons) program, and I believe I did,” he added. In a May 2002 speech, Bolton said the United States “believes Cuba has at least a limited offensive biological warfare research and development effort” and that Cuba had provided dual-use biological equipment to “rogue states.” After Bolton’s speech, Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense Information, led a delegation to Cuba to learn more about Havana’s biotechnology efforts, according to the Times. Blair said the trip “confirmed the prevailing U.S. intelligence view that insufficient evidence exists to either accuse or exonerate Cuba. I do not believe that any reliable evidence, secret or public, exists to support Bolton’s accusation that Cuba has a bioweapons program” (see GSN, March 13). “He is either deceiving the public or himself, or both, and should be fired,” Blair said. Bolton and a U.S. intelligence official, however, disputed that Bolton’s speech did not reflect the U.S. intelligence view on Cuba, according to the Times. Since last spring, new information has arrived that has led to a reassessment by some analysts who previously doubted the progress made by Cuba and Syria in developing weapons of mass destruction, the intelligence official said. “One-quarter say he’s wrong, a quarter back him, and the rest don’t have an opinion,” the official said (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 3). Back to top       White House Agrees to Cooperate With Senate Intelligence Inquiry The White House and the U.S. Defense Department have agreed to provide the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence with documents and access to personnel related to U.S. prewar intelligence on Iraq, committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) said yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 30). “Every document we want will be made available,” Roberts said on CNN’s Late Edition With Wolf Blitzer. Roberts said a senior White House official had informed his staff Friday that “in a spirit of cooperation … the White House will provide us with the documents and interviews that we want” (Shogren/Chen, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 3). The materials committee Democrats have requested includes speech drafts and documentation for claims made in speeches by President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, including Bush’s State of the Union address, said congressional sources. The White House and committee Republicans, however, have interpreted the request more narrowly, according to the Washington Post.  Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), the top Democrat on the committee, said Roberts informed him about the White House’s promised cooperation as they appeared on CNN. Roberts said that he had not told Rockefeller beforehand because he had not had “a chance to call you over the weekend.” Rockefeller yesterday appeared to doubt the White House’s pledge of greater cooperation with the committee’s inquiry, the Post reported.  “I want to see the documentation … before I’m satisfied,” he said. “I want to know that we really have it in hand,” Rockefeller added (Mike Allen, Washington Post, Nov. 3). A White House spokesman, however, has refused to confirm Roberts’s claim that the White House has agreed to fully cooperate with the inquiry, according to the Los Angeles Times. “We have had productive conversations about ways we can work with and assist the committee,” said deputy press secretary Trent Duffy. “While the committee’s jurisdiction does not cover the White House, we want to be helpful, and we will continue to talk to and work with the committee in a spirit of cooperation,” Duffy said (Shogren/Chen, Los Angeles Times). Back to top       North Carolina Police Charge Men With WMD Possession Authorities in Kings Mountain, N.C., charged four men with WMD-related charges after searching a home laboratory, seizing chemicals and discovering a classic bomb-making guide called The Anarchist Cookbook, the Shelby Star reported Saturday. Phillip Lovelace, Jonathan Garrett, Roger Carl McFarland and George Marion Adams were charged with possession of weapons of mass destruction after police discovered a bomb-making laboratory in their house. Police also suspect the men are connected to a house fire across the street from their home. “We appear to be in the middle of the investigation,” said Kings Mountain Police Chief Melvin Proctor. The arrests might have prevented “something big,” Proctor said. While searching the laboratory police discovered stores of potassium cyanide, a poison that could potentially be used to contaminate a water supply. It was famously used by the Jim Jones cult in 1978 to poison the fruit punch that killed over 900 cult members (Shannon Blosser, Shelby Star, Nov. 1). Back to top

Iranian Religious Leader Warns Against Excessive Foreign Pressure Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the top official in Iran, has said that Tehran would not cooperate with U.N. nuclear inspectors if the nation were faced with heightened international pressure or “excessive demands,” the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 31). Iran agreed last month to sign the Additional Protocol to its international nuclear safeguards agreement, which would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor Iranian nuclear activities more rigorously. “If parties to the talks with us or centers of global power come up with excessive demands and we feel that our interests and values are harmed, we won’t hesitate to end this trend (of cooperation),” Khamenei said (Associated Press/CNN.com, Nov. 2). “So far, nothing has been done against our principles,” he said. “Wherever I feel that a step has been taken against the directions and goals of the establishment, I will stop it,” Khamenei added. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said that agency officials are still reviewing Iran’s nuclear declaration (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 2). Addressing complaints from hard-liners in Iran who have protested the decision to cooperate more with the IAEA, Khamenei said Iran has made no concessions. “What happened was right and well managed in order to foil the U.S. and Zionist conspiracy,” he added (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 3). Khamenei’s remarks followed a Thursday speech by U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton in which he suggested that Iran’s agreement to sign the Additional Protocol would not satisfy the United States. “It still remains to be seen whether these initiatives will amount to more than mere words, and even if Iran follows through with its promises, many further steps will still be required in order to prove beyond doubt that Iran is foreswearing the pursuit of nuclear weapons,” Bolton said (State Department release, Oct. 30). Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, meanwhile, arrived in Moscow yesterday and is expected to discuss Iran’s nuclear program with Russian President Vladimir Putin (Steve Weizman, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 2). Back to top       Russia Seeking Fewer Restrictions on Nuclear Transfers to India Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev has said that he will ask U.S. officials to agree to ease international rules restricting the transfer of nuclear technology to India, the Hindu reported today (see GSN, June 4). Trade restrictions created by the 40-member Nuclear Suppliers Group have limited India’s ability to import nuclear technology, according to the Hindu. Rumyantsev said that such restrictions should be eased because India indigenously developed its nuclear program and because of its nuclear nonproliferation record. “There is a pressing need to review the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and work out a special arrangement for India to allow it to cooperate with other countries in the nuclear field,” Rumyantsev said (Vladimir Radyuhin, The Hindu, Nov. 3). Back to top       China, Pakistan Expected to Sign Nuclear Cooperation Agreement China and Pakistan yesterday were expected to finalize an agreement for China’s construction of a nuclear power plant in Pakistan, Reuters reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 29, 2002). The agreement for the 300-megawatt reactor, to be constructed at Chashma about 170 miles south of Islamabad, was set to be signed during a visit by Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to Beijing. The plant is expected to take at least six years to build and cost $600 million, energy experts said. Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Masood Khan said the plant would be built under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. “It will be meant for civilian use of nuclear energy,” Khan said (Zeeshan Haider, Reuters, Nov. 2). Back to top       Honduras Ratifies Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Honduras submitted its ratification to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Thursday, according to the CTBT Organization (see GSN, Oct. 14).  To date, 169 countries have signed the CTBT and 107 have ratified it, including 32 of the 44 nations whose ratifications are necessary for the treaty to enter into force (CTBT Organization release, Oct. 30). Back to top       U.S. Lawmakers Angry With White House Over Blocked North Korea Visit A bipartisan delegation of U.S. lawmakers was “offended” by White House staff who prevented them from traveling to North Korea this week, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Saturday (see GSN, Oct. 31). Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) was set to lead the second congressional delegation to Pyongyang this year but the National Security Council officials blocked the trip at the last moment. In a letter to U.S. President George W. Bush Thursday, the 10 lawmakers who were scheduled for the trip said the White House staffers were “arrogant and disrespectful.” The letter also told Bush that “you are being ill-served by your National Security Council staff.” Weldon intended to present North Korea officials with a document signed by 41 members of Congress, supporting Bush’s stance on the Korean nuclear standoff. The delegation was also hoping to visit the North Korean nuclear facility at Yongbyon. The letter accused national security staffers of “irresponsibly fabricating with malicious intent a rumor” that Weldon’s earlier delegation had passed documents to North Korean officials (Steve Goldstein, Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 1). Smuggling Arrest A New Jersey man, meanwhile, was arrested Friday on charges that he tried to supply North Korea with blueprints for specialized valves that are critical to the operation of a nuclear plant. Sitaraman Ravi Mahadevan was charged in U.S. District Court in Manhattan with sending the blueprints to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in New York, knowing that the information would be passed on to North Korea. The documents were seized before they left the country, the New York Times reported (New York Times, Nov. 1). The criminal complaint said that Mahadevan “violated and attempted to violate” provisions of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Mahadevan is an eight-year employee of Valcor Engineering in Springfield, New Jersey, according to his defense attorney (Phil Hirschkorn, CNN.com, Nov. 1). Back to top

Smallpox Terrorism Should Be Feared Less, Scientist Says An analysis of historical smallpox outbreaks suggests that the disease is less contagious than many public health planners fear and is an improbable tool for terrorists, a Scottish university researcher concluded in a recent paper (see GSN, Oct. 28). Writing in October’s Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Aberdeen University biologist Hugh Pennington said smallpox is less contagious than other diseases — including measles, chickenpox, mumps and rubella — and can be quickly contained with standard isolation and ring-vaccination strategies. Pennington concurred with a 1972 assessment by another researcher that “under contemporary conditions smallpox cannot be said to live up to its reputation. Far from being a quick-footed menace, it has appeared as a plodding nuisance with more bark than bite.” Pennington found that previous smallpox outbreaks lasted “weeks rather than months or years, that their size was in single figures or tens rather than hundreds or thousands, and that more than three-quarters of the outbreaks ended with the generation being infected immediately after the detection of smallpox.” There is little evidence that smallpox patients can transmit their illness “further than a few meters,” Pennington said. In addition, while producing the smallpox virus would not be difficult, Pennington said, manufacturing anthrax would be much easier for terrorists because anthrax is much less dependent on precise environmental conditions. “None of these factors favor smallpox as a weapon of mass destruction,” Pennington said (Hugh Pennington, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, October 2003). Back to top

U.S. Defense Department Will Review SBIRS-High Development The U.S. Defense Department will review the Air Force Space Based Infrared System-High program after congressional auditors warned the missile tracking system could experience more cost increases and schedule delays, Aerospace Daily reported today (see GSN, Oct 23). The schedule for SBIRS-High was restructured in 2002 after defense officials discovered that the program’s cost had grown by more than $2 billion. The first satellite is now due to be launched in 2006, a slip of two years. The General Accounting Office said Friday that prime contractor Lockheed Martin did not, however, address some long-standing concerns identified by an independent review team. “While the Air Force has taken a number of actions as recommended by the IRT to improve program oversight, it has become increasingly evident that the underlying factors that led to the (breaching of the Nunn-McCurdy Act’s cost growth restrictions) — particularly the lack of critical knowledge — continue to cause problems, and additional cost and schedule slips beyond the revised acquisition program baseline appear inevitable,” according to the GAO (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily, Nov. 3). The GAO report found that the overall design for SBIRS-High is unstable and the software development and integration efforts are risky. The $8.6 billion price tag for the program could rise by as much as $432 million, according to the GAO (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg.com, Oct. 31). Back to top

Latvian Experts Identify Recovered Material as Strontium Latvian experts have determined that radioactive material recovered earlier this month by the Latvian secret service is strontium, a spokesman for the Latvian Constitutional Protection Bureau said last week (see GSN, Oct. 27). “The radiation security center is investigating the quantity, content, activity time and place of producing this substance. Strontium could be used in making a so-called ‘dirty bomb,’” said bureau spokesman Dainis Mikelsons. Four people who had been detained Oct. 23 at the University of Latvia’s solid-state radiation chemistry laboratory in connection with the recovered materials have been released, Mikelsons said. He added that the four people were not connected with the laboratory. “Latvian laws do not envisage bringing to trial persons suspected of illegal handling of radioactive substances if not repeated within a one-year period,” Mikelsons said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Oct. 29). Back to top       Energy Department Criticizes Leak of Yucca Mountain Concerns A senior U.S. Energy Department official last week criticized the Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board over the leak of a board assessment that the department’s design for a nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada could allow waste storage containers to corrode and possibly leak, Energy Daily reported today (see GSN, Oct. 21). The assessment was contained in a letter the board was reportedly preparing to send to the department. In a reply to the board made public last week, Margaret Chu, director of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management, said she was “deeply disappointed by the premature release” of the board letter’s contents. Chu said she was concerned that statements made in the board’s letter “might be misunderstood or misrepresented.” She also said the board’s analysis of the Yucca Mountain repository design was based on “extreme and unlikely environmental conditions” (Jeff Beattie, Energy Daily, Nov. 3).   Back to top

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