Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev (left) and Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi met in June. Nonproliferation specialists suggested yesterday that Kazakhstan’s approach to disarmament and nonproliferation could serve as a model for nations such as Iran seeking greater international stature (AFP/Getty). Kazakhstan Could Serve as Disarmament Model for Iran, Officials and Experts Say By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Kazakhstan’s experience in disarming itself of nuclear weapons following the fall of the Soviet Union could serve as a model for other countries, most notably Iran, a panel of officials and experts said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 6). During a symposium held here on Capitol Hill, Kazakh and U.S. officials, former officials and other experts detailed Kazakhstan’s transformation during the 1990s from a newly independent country possessing one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals to one that renounced nuclear weapons and has since worked to dismantle its Soviet-era WMD architecture with U.S. assistance. ..Full Story

United States Proposes New U.N. Nonproliferation Resolution The United States yesterday distributed a draft U.N. resolution to the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council that would prohibit the transfer of weapons of mass destruction to individuals and organizations, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, Sept. 23)...Full Story

Iran Expected to Sign Additional Protocol Tomorrow Iran has announced that it will sign the Additional Protocol to its nuclear safeguards agreement tomorrow, granting the International Atomic Energy Agency the right to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Iranian nuclear activities (see GSN, Dec. 15)...Full Story

	Wednesday, December 17, 2003

Kazakhstan Could Serve as Disarmament Model for Iran, Officials and Experts Say By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Kazakhstan’s experience in disarming itself of nuclear weapons following the fall of the Soviet Union could serve as a model for other countries, most notably Iran, a panel of officials and experts said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 6). During a symposium held here on Capitol Hill, Kazakh and U.S. officials, former officials and other experts detailed Kazakhstan’s transformation during the 1990s from a newly independent country possessing one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals to one that renounced nuclear weapons and has since worked to dismantle its Soviet-era WMD architecture with U.S. assistance.  Kazakhstan’s success in transforming into a non-nuclear state, and the resultant benefits and international goodwill, can serve as an example to other countries that possess nuclear weapons or are interested in joining the nuclear club, they said. Twelve years ago, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian state of Kazakhstan became simultaneously an independent country and one of the world’s largest nuclear weapons states. Among the Soviet weapons Kazakhstan inherited were 104 SS-18 ICBMs armed with a total of more than 1,000 nuclear warheads (an arsenal greater than that of China, France and the United Kingdom combined) and a fleet of 40 heavy bombers capable of carrying 370 nuclear-armed cruise missiles. In addition, Kazakhstan was also home to large sections of the Soviet WMD architecture, including the main Soviet nuclear weapons test site at Semipalatinsk — which Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev closed four months prior to the end of the Soviet Union — and the largest anthrax production site in the world at Stepnogorsk. Throughout the 1990s, Kazakhstan undertook a series of measures, with U.S. assistance, to disarm itself of the vast nuclear weapons arsenal and infrastructure that it had inherited, such as transferring its nuclear warheads and heavy bombers back to Russia, ratifying the START and Comprehensive Test Ban treaties, ratifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear weapon state and joining the International Atomic Energy Agency. Yesterday, Kazakh Ambassador to the United States Kanat Saudabayev said that his country had decided to renounce nuclear weapons because of the catastrophic effects of 40 years of Soviet nuclear testing on both the Kazakh people and the environment. He also said that in the early days of Kazakh independence, many elites in country were supportive of retaining the Soviet nuclear weapons left behind, noting that Kazakhstan would have been the first Muslim state to openly possess nuclear weapons. Nazarbayev made a “courageous and historic choice” to renounce nuclear weapons, Saudabayev said at yesterday’s symposium, co-hosted by the Kazakh Embassy and the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Noting the threat of terrorists possibly obtaining, and using, a nuclear weapon, Saudabayev said that Kazakhstan urges the international community to “follow our example” in disarming of weapons of mass destruction. Saudabayev’s call was echoed yesterday by NTI Chief Executive Officer and former Senator Sam Nunn (D-Ga.), who along with Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) developed the Cooperative Threat Reduction program, which seeks to provide U.S. technical assistance and funding to disarmament projects in the former Soviet Union (see GSN, Dec. 12). Kazakhstan “is a model of what we must see in the 21st century,” Nunn said. In the processing of disarming, Nunn said, Nazarbayev established good relations with a number of countries around the world, including European nations and the United States.  The Kazakh example demonstrates that other countries — specifically Iran, Nunn said — could both benefit and grow in stature on the world stage by remaining free of nuclear weapons (see related GSN story, today). “Iran and other nations can learn from Kazakhstan,” he said. Graham Allison, head of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said yesterday that Kazakhstan needed to take a more active role in promoting the benefits of disarmament and of renouncing nuclear weapons. He also said that Kazakhstan could play a particular role in persuading Iran, whose nuclear program has long raised suspicion of being a cover for weapons development, to remain a non-nuclear state, noting the developed set of ties between the two countries. Kazakhstan “should be less modest, less reserved” about its disarmament successes, Allison said. Cooperation In addition to serving as an example of the benefits of disarmament, Kazakhstan could also serve as a model for international nonproliferation efforts, said the officials and experts. For example, Nunn called for additional international actions in the vein of “Project Sapphire” — a 1994 secret joint U.S.-Kazakh operation that removed more than 1,200 pounds of highly enriched uranium from a Kazakh site to the United States. The operation has already served as a model for a September operation to remove weapon-grade material from a Romanian research reactor, and an operation last year that removed weapon-grade material from a Yugoslav research reactor, according to Nunn (see GSN, Sept. 22). “There are many others that must take place,” he said. Nunn also said that he hoped Kazakhstan would join the Group of Eight’s Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Under the partnership, which was launched during the 2002 G-8 summit in Kananaskis, Canada, the G-8 nations pledged $20 billion over 10 years for nonproliferation projects, primarily in Russia. In addition to the G-8 nations of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, several additional countries have since joined the effort (see GSN, Nov. 14). [EDITOR’S NOTE: Sam Nunn is chief executive officer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and Richard Lugar serves on the NTI board.  NTI is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by National Journal Group.] Back to top       United States Proposes New U.N. Nonproliferation Resolution The United States yesterday distributed a draft U.N. resolution to the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council that would prohibit the transfer of weapons of mass destruction to individuals and organizations, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, Sept. 23). The resolution, first proposed by U.S. President George W. Bush during a Sept. 23 U.N. speech, calls on U.N. members to criminalize WMD proliferation and to “refrain” from providing support to organizations and individuals seeking to develop such weapons. The resolution also would require U.N. members to establish “domestic controls” for strengthening border and export controls, according to the Post. The draft U.S. resolution does not include the authority for the Security Council to sanction U.N. members that fail to comply, the Post reported. While Russia and the United Kingdom had supported the inclusion of an enforcement mechanism, some Bush administration officials were concerned that it would give the Security Council too large of a role in monitoring illicit trade, U.N. diplomats said (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, Dec. 17). Meanwhile, former chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix yesterday announced the members of a new independent commission on weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, Dec. 15). The new commission, to be based in Stockholm, was first proposed last year and will be the first such group since the 1999 Tokyo Forum, according to the Associated Press. Blix said that the commission will meet up to three times a year and is expected to present its first report to the United Nations by the end of next year. “My ambition for this commission is that we will be able to provide realistic and constructive ideas and proposals aimed at the greatest possible reduction of the dangers of weapons of mass destruction,” Blix said (Mattias Karen, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Dec. 17). U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan yesterday praised the creation of the new commission. “The commission faces a task of the utmost importance — providing proposals on how to make progress in nonproliferation and disarmament of weapons of mass destruction and on how to minimize the risk of these weapons falling into the hands of terrorists,” Annan said (U.N. release, Dec. 16). Back to top       Wassenaar Arrangement Members Agree to Amend Export Control Lists By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Participants in a multilateral export control regime designed to govern the transfer of conventional weapons and dual-use items agreed last week to amend the regime’s control lists (see GSN, Dec. 10). The 33 members of the Wassenaar Arrangement held their annual plenary meeting, chaired by the United States, Dec. 10-12 in Vienna. The arrangement seeks to control the transfer of conventional arms, dual-use items and technology that could be used to develop weapons of mass destruction by coordinating national export control policies. During this year’s meeting, regime members agreed to “strengthened controls” on several types of items, such as certain types of microwave electronic devices, semiconductor lasers and navigation equipment, according to a regime statement. It said that regime members took into account “advances in technology and market availability” when considering changes to the Wassenaar control lists. In addition, members also worked to make the control lists more user-friendly for national licensing authorities and commercial exporters, with an aim toward the clear identification of the “most sensitive” items on the control lists, the regime statement said. Last week, the United States formally amended the U.S. Commerce Control List to reflect the changes made to the Wassenaar control lists during the regime’s 2002 plenary meeting. Members also agreed during last week’s meeting that dual-use items not included on the regime’s control list should require governmental authorization when intended for military purposes before they can be transferred to countries subjected to a U.N. Security Council arms embargo or any relevant regional arms embargo, the regime statement said. In addition, Wassenaar members also discussed pending membership applications, which could be accepted on a “case-by-case basis.” A U.S. official told Global Security Newswire today that membership considerations need to be based on whether the prospective country shares the objectives of the regime and if it could a make a significant contribution to the regime’s efforts. If a country can meet both criteria, the official said, then “it’s more important to have them in than have them out.” “Arbitrarily keeping the regime at its current size is not in interest of the regime,” the U.S. official said. Back to top       Coalition Forces Need to Continue WMD Search in Iraq, Blair Says While the capture of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein may lead to clues about his past efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction, coalition forces currently searching Iraq for evidence of Iraqi WMD efforts need to continue their work, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 15). “I think it will take us time” to learn of the full extent of Iraqi WMD efforts, Blair said, “but we have got to carry on until we find it. Because frankly until we find it, (there are) obviously all sorts of issues about justification for war, but it also important to find it for reasons of making sure that we secure the peace.” Blair also expressed confidence that prewar Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, according to the London Independent. “That he [Hussein] had them is beyond doubt — I mean he used them,” Blair said. “He used them against Iran, he used them against his own people,” Blair added (Andrew Grice, London Independent, Dec. 17). The Financial Times reported today, however, that Blair seemed to suggest yesterday that actual banned weapons would not be found. In an interview with the BBC Arabic Service, Blair said he was “confident that the Iraq Survey Group, when it does its work, will find what has happened to those weapons, because that he had them, there is absolutely no doubt at all” (Eaglesham/Harding, Financial Times, Dec. 17). Meanwhile, former chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix said yesterday that it appeared that Iraq did not possess weapons of mass destruction at the time of Operation Iraqi Freedom, according to USA Today. “My guess is that there are no weapons of mass destruction left,” Blix said (USA Today, Dec. 17). He also said that Hussein might be able to help corroborate his regime’s oft-stated claim that any Iraqi weapons of mass destruction were destroyed following the 1991 Gulf War. “Saddam must have knowledge about what he ordered. He should know about what he built” and “he must have some information himself on when they destroyed their weapons of mass destruction,” Blix said (Aljazeera.net, Dec. 16). Back to top       Cheney Says Biological, Nuclear Weapons Are “Major Threat” U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said this week that the use of biological or nuclear weapons against the United States is a “major threat” and one of the “most important problems we face today” (see GSN, Sept. 29). In an interview with conservative talk show host Armstrong Williams, Cheney said that part of his job is “contemplating sort of worst-case scenarios for attacks on the United States.” Cheney said the United States had made progress in its efforts to capture or kill members of the al-Qaeda terrorist network but that “there are still a lot of folks out there.” One of his largest concerns, he added, is “the possibility of that group of terrorists acquiring deadlier weapons to use against us — a biological weapon of some kind, or even a nuclear weapon” (Mike Allen, Washington Post, Dec. 17). Back to top

Iran Expected to Sign Additional Protocol Tomorrow Iran has announced that it will sign the Additional Protocol to its nuclear safeguards agreement tomorrow, granting the International Atomic Energy Agency the right to conduct more intrusive monitoring of Iranian nuclear activities (see GSN, Dec. 15). “Iran has decided to sign the protocol to prove that [the] Iranian nuclear program is for civilian purpose. Signature on the protocol will also end the propaganda campaign against the nuclear program,” Iranian nuclear chief Gholamreza Aghazadeh said. He said that Tehran had complied with the agreement reached earlier this year with a group of European foreign ministers to defuse the standoff over alleged nuclear weapons development. Aghazadeh claimed, however, that European officials have hampered the export of key technologies to Iran and violated their end of the deal. “They have promised to exercise full cooperation in helping Iran gain access to nuclear technology for civilian application. They are expected to honor their commitments and take effective steps in this respect,” he added (Islamic Republic News Agency, Dec. 17). Back to top

Judge Suspends Pathogen Shipments to Two U.S. National Laboratories A U.S. federal judge Monday suspended shipments of biological weapons pathogens to two U.S. Energy Department laboratories, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Oct. 8). The judge’s order suspends pathogen shipments for proposed biological weapons research facilities at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, according to AP. In August, two environmental groups filed a federal lawsuit against the Energy Department and the two laboratories claiming that the department had failed to conduct required environmental impact reports at the two laboratories. According to the order, a hearing on the issue is set for April 23, with a final decision expected by mid-May (Associated Press/San Jose Mercury News, Dec. 17). Back to top

Chinese Missile Tests Could Lead to Taiwanese Break, Chen Warns Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has said that future Chinese ballistic missile tests would be seen as acts of “force” against Taiwan, which could move the island closer to declaring independence, the Financial Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Dec. 10). In an interview with the Times, Chen repeated that he would abandon a promise to not declare independence from China if Beijing resorted to force against Taiwan.  “If China continues to deploy more missiles against Taiwan, and continues to threaten Taiwan with the use of force, it would only drive Taiwan further away. It would invite a backlash from the people of Taiwan, and would also cause even more people to see China as a hostile country rather than the motherland,” he said. Chen also said that Chinese ballistic missile tests conducted off the Taiwanese coast would be seen as an act of force. “It is an attack,” he said (Mallet/Hille, Financial Times, Dec. 16). Back to top

MDA Delays Lockheed Booster Test Again The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has delayed defense contractor Lockheed Martin’s booster rocket test launch until January, citing an electronic “fault” (see GSN, Dec. 15). Lockheed is developing one of two booster-rocket candidates for the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense program but the effort has been plagued by accidents and technical difficulties. The test was originally set for Monday and was then rescheduled for Thursday after the problem was initially discovered. Orbital Sciences is developing the other booster, which was tested earlier this year. The Pentagon will use Orbital’s booster for the initial deployment of the missile defense system. The Lockheed test launch was delayed because of an “extremely minor” problem in a circuit board in a module on top of the booster’s third stage motor, a Pentagon spokesman said yesterday. The test, Booster Verification-5, is expected to take place next month after technicians replace the faulty equipment. “They change out things all the time,” the spokesman said. “The only difference (this time) is that it was close to the launch date,” he added (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily, Dec. 17). Back to top       Japan Plans $930 Million Missile Defense Budget The Japanese government decided yesterday to formally endorse the acquisition of a missile defense system. The decision would be reflected in the government’s draft fiscal 2004 budget, expected to be submitted Saturday (see GSN, Dec. 4; Jiji Press Ticker, Dec. 17). Japan is planning to spend about $930 million to buy missile defense equipment from the United States, CNN.com reported Monday. The figure is slightly lower than earlier projections, but that is mostly attributable to the falling value of the U.S. dollar, according to CNN.com. Tokyo’s missile shield will include Standard Missile-3 interceptors based on Aegis ships in the Sea of Japan and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile defense systems based in Japan. Japanese leaders are planning to hold a security council meeting Friday to confirm the missile defense spending, according to the daily Nihon Keizai (CNN.com, Dec. 15).   Back to top

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