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Powell Draws Mixed Reviews from Nonproliferation Experts From Tuesday, November 16, 2004 issue.

Powell Draws Mixed Reviews from Nonproliferation Experts

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — On the day he announced his resignation, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday received mixed reviews from experts for his handling of arms control and nonproliferation issues (see GSN, Oct. 27).

Powell formally submitted his letter of resignation to President George W. Bush on Friday. During a press conference yesterday to announce his departure, Powell said he had “always” indicated to the president his intent to serve four years as secretary of state.

“As we got closer to the election and the immediate aftermath of the election, it seemed the appropriate time and we were in mutual agreement that it was the appropriate time for me to move on,” Powell said.

Bush issued a statement yesterday thanking Powell for his service, calling him “one of the great public servants of our time.”

“He is a soldier, a diplomat, a civic leader, a statesman, and a great patriot. I value his friendship.  He will be missed. On behalf of all Americans, I thank him for his many years of service,” Bush said.

During his tenure, Powell has had to address a number of arms control and nonproliferation issues, ranging from a successful effort with Russia to negotiate the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty — which calls for cuts to both countries’ deployed nuclear arsenals — to halting suspected nuclear weapons programs in Iran and North Korea.

Nonproliferation experts yesterday provided a mostly downbeat assessment of Powell’s record on such issues, with some saying that his views received little attention within the administration. 

Never before has a secretary “entered with such great expectations and left with such meager results,” said Joseph Cirincione, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nonproliferation Project.

Instead, Undersecretary of State John Bolton played a larger role than Powell concerning nonproliferation issues, according to William Potter, director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. Bolton has been called a leading neoconservative in the administration.

Arms Control Association Executive Director Daryl Kimball yesterday, though, described Powell as leaving behind “a mixed legacy” regarding nonproliferation. Kimball praised Powell’s efforts to have the White House engage North Korea on its nuclear program, as well as the secretary’s support for negotiations on a treaty to ban the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons.

Kimball also said, though, that Powell had “not succeeded” in some areas, such as achieving a permanent solution to the North Korean nuclear issue.

One issue likely to loom large in Powell’s legacy, according to experts, is the administration’s allegation that Iraq possessed widespread WMD capabilities prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom. In February, Powell presented a detailed overview to the United Nations of prewar Iraq’s alleged WMD efforts in an attempt to gain international support for the war. Powell’s presentation was later found to contain a number of errors, and coalition inspectors have determined that prewar Iraq did not possess WMD stockpiles or large-scale programs to produce them at the time of the U.S. invasion.

“We’ll have to see in his memoirs what he has to say about that,” said Charles Pena, director of defense policy studies at the CATO Institute.

Kimball said, though, that it was Powell’s influence that led the Bush administration to go before the United Nations in the first place before invading Iraq.

Experts said that Powell’s departure will remove a key voice of moderation from the Bush administration. 

“There’s really not a moderate voice left,” Cirincione said.

Potter said that Powell’s departure, along with the resignation of Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, would likely increase the influence of the Defense Department in arms control and nonproliferation issues “in the short term.”

In his remarks yesterday, Powell said that he would continue to serve as secretary of state until a replacement is in place. 

Earlier today, Bush nominated national security adviser Condoleezza Rice to replace Powell. Citing people close to Rice, the New York Times reported today that she had wanted to either replace Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense or return to Stanford University, where she had previously been provost, but would serve as secretary of state if asked.

In addition to Powell, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage has also decided to leave the State Department, according to reports. Armitage’s departure was hinted at yesterday during a department press briefing. 

I think all of us realize that the two of them, Secretary Powell and Deputy Secretary Armitage, have been a very successful team,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said. “So there’s generally the expectation that it’s like Bosnia: in together, out together.”

Boucher also suggested yesterday that other department officials may also leave following Powell’s departure.

“I do know personally for me and for many others that there was a something about working for Secretary Powell that made us sort of stay in jobs longer than we might otherwise have done. And so for, I think, various people it might be time to move on. We’ll just have to see how that sorts itself out,” he said.


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