International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei (shown in an October photo) may issue a positive report on Iran’s nuclear program if Iranian-European talks go well (AFP photo/Jung Yeon-je). ElBaradei Plans to Offer Positive Report on Iran If Talks With EU Are Constructive, Diplomats Say U.S. efforts to send Iran to the U.N. Security Council later this month could be undercut by a forthcoming International Atomic Energy Agency report on its two-year investigation of Tehran’s nuclear work, diplomats told Reuters yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 3). “[IAEA Director General Mohamed] ElBaradei told the Iranians that if the atmosphere in the EU three talks is positive, then his report on Iran will also be positive,” a diplomat said. “That is quite a carrot for Iran.”..Full Story

World Leaders React to Bush Win; Some Predict Greater Cooperation on WMD, Other Issues in New Term Some foreign policy experts believe that U.S. President George W. Bush in his second term could emphasize cooperation with allies in seeking solutions to disputes over North Korea’s and Iran’s nuclear programs and other issues, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 28)...Full Story

Soldiers Describe Looting at Iraqi Al-Qaqaa Site Several U.S Army reservists and National Guard members said they saw widespread looting of explosives from the al-Qaqaa facility in Iraq following the fall of Baghdad, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 2)...Full Story

	Thursday, November 4, 2004

British Nuclear Plants Can Survive Plane Hit British nuclear power installations can now withstand the impact of a jumbo jet crash, the security director of British Nuclear Fuels said yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 1). The company spent $37 million last year on plant upgrades, according to Reuters, including encasing facilities behind reinforced walls. “The walls are 7 meters thick and 7 meters high and are designed to take the full impact of a 747,” said Roger Howsley, BNFL security and safeguards director. “Even if you were able to target it, the reactor core is one of the most impenetrable structures in existence because it’s there to protect the work force — and the irradiation from the core,” he said. In addition, most of the world’s uranium and nuclear reactors are in stable democracies, making them less susceptible to diversion by terrorists, Howsley said. “Sixty percent of the world’s uranium comes from Canada and Australia,” he said, adding that most of the world’s 440 nuclear reactors are in mature democratic countries (Reuters/Yahoo!News, Nov. 3). Back to top

World Leaders React to Bush Win; Some Predict Greater Cooperation on WMD, Other Issues in New Term Some foreign policy experts believe that U.S. President George W. Bush in his second term could emphasize cooperation with allies in seeking solutions to disputes over North Korea’s and Iran’s nuclear programs and other issues, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 28). “The U.S. administration had already begun to seek multilateralism, to return to the United Nations to deal with issues such as North Korea and Iran and there exists a clear awareness of the need to continue on this path,” said Emilio Lara de Espinosa, head of Spain’s Elcano think tank (Christophe Schmidt, Agence France-Presse, Nov. 3). Bush has already realized the limits of unilateralism, said James Dobbins, director of international security and defense policy at the RAND Corp. “The election is over, there is no need to maintain we never made a mistake,” said Dobbins. “People learn,” he added. Bush has already made changes in personnel to reflect that understanding, said Dov Zakheim, an undersecretary of defense for part of Bush’s first term. “The core team that is making Iraq policy is not the same core team that was making the policy six months ago,” he said. Other experts doubt that much will change in Bush’s foreign policy philosophy during his next term. “It will be the same Bush,” said James Phillips, Middle East analyst at the Heritage Foundation. He added, however, that Bush “may make tactical adjustments in policy.” Difficulties with Iran are likely to play as large a role in Bush’s second term as Iraq did in his first, Phillips said. “Bush may try to pull the European allies into a multilateral strategy, especially on the nuclear issue, even if only to prove he is open to that,” Phillips said. A strike by Washington on Iran remains possible, Phillips said, adding that he hopes the crisis “can be resolved short of war.” (Barry Schweid, Associated Press/Sierra Times, Nov. 4). World leaders said yesterday they looked forward to working with the new administration on WMD nonproliferation, terrorism and other issues, the Associated Press reported. Some were openly supportive and others cautiously optimistic. French President Jacques Chirac wrote that he hoped Bush’s second term “will be the occasion for strengthening the French-American friendship.” German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder expressed “great expectations” in his letter for renewed cooperation between his country and the United States. “The world stands before great challenges at the beginning of your second term: international terrorism, the danger of weapons of mass destruction, regional crises — but also poverty, climate change and epidemics threaten our security and stability,” Schroeder wrote. “These challenges can only be mastered together.” Some leaders were less optimistic. “Europe will continue to criticize Bush the same way as earlier,” said Swedish Prime Minister Goeran Persson. “But I do not believe that he will be more willing to listen” (John Leicester, Associated Press/Michigan Daily, Nov. 3). Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda said Japan would “vigorously continue cooperation with the United States and other countries” to resolve the nuclear standoff with North Korea, according to AP. Taiwan pledged to work with the United States “on the base of common values in the fight against terrorism and against the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and to push for peace,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Michel Lu (Mike Corder, Associated Press/WPTV.com, Nov. 4). Back to top       China Rejects U.S. Allegations of Proliferation China today rejected accusations made late last month by U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton that it was engaged in proliferation activities (see GSN, Oct. 25). In an Oct. 27 speech in Tokyo, Bolton accused China of engaging “in outward proliferation.” While saying that she had not seen Bolton’s remarks, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue today defended Beijing’s nonproliferation record, according to the Associated Press. “China has done a lot of work in terms of legal measures and has passed a lot of regulations covering all possible aspects including nuclear [and] biological weapons, chemical weapons, as well as other conventional weapons and sensitive technologies,” she said. Bolton also said in his speech that the United States is working to have China join the Proliferation Security Initiative, which is intended to interdict shipments of WMD-related cargo. Zhang said today that China supports the effort’s objective, but still has concerns about the initiative. “Forceful measures taken by PSI — such as interceptions —go beyond the framework of international laws and U.N. Charter principles,” she said (Audra Ang, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 4). Back to top

ElBaradei Plans to Offer Positive Report on Iran If Talks With EU Are Constructive, Diplomats Say U.S. efforts to send Iran to the U.N. Security Council later this month could be undercut by a forthcoming International Atomic Energy Agency report on its two-year investigation of Tehran’s nuclear work, diplomats told Reuters yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 3). “[IAEA Director General Mohamed] ElBaradei told the Iranians that if the atmosphere in the EU three talks is positive, then his report on Iran will also be positive,” a diplomat said. “That is quite a carrot for Iran.” Officials from France, Germany and the United Kingdom are scheduled to meet with Iranian representatives tomorrow in Paris. The IAEA Board of Governors will take up the issue when it begins its next meeting Nov. 25. The agency has found no “smoking gun” proving that Iran has a clandestine nuclear weapons program, Reuters reported. “ElBaradei plans to say in his November report on Iran that the agency has so far found no evidence of diversion (to a nuclear weapons program),” said another diplomat who follows the IAEA investigation of Iran. “But he will balance that by saying that Iran’s fuel cycle activities would appear to be out of proportion with the other parts of its nuclear program,” the diplomat added. Several diplomats told Reuters that a report favoring Iran would not completely block the potential for a Security Council referral. An IAEA spokeswoman declined to comment, according to Reuters. The report is still being prepared, she said (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Nov. 3). Meanwhile, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said that a U.S. attack to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program is “inconceivable,” Agence France-Presse reported “I don’t see any circumstances in which military action would be justified against Iran,” Straw told the BBC yesterday. The international community wants the matter resolved “constructively,” he added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 4). Iran has the ability, but not the intent, to create nuclear weapons, an Iranian official said yesterday. “We do not intend [to make] nuclear weapons,” Interfax quoted Ali Akbar Soltan, deputy director general of Iran’s Foreign Ministry political department, as saying. “If we had had such an intention, we would have done so a long time ago because Iran has the capacity to do so, especially talented scientists,” he said. “But we are interested only in nuclear power for peaceful purposes.” (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 3). Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing is scheduled to make a two-day visit Iran beginning Saturday for discussions on Tehran’s nuclear standoff with the United States and Europe, Reuters reported. “At present, Iran’s nuclear issue is an issue of concern to the whole international society,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said today. “During meetings with Iran’s leaders, Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing will raise this (nuclear) issue. We hope this issue can be solved within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency,” Zhang said (Reuters, Nov. 4). Back to top       Soldiers Describe Looting at Iraqi Al-Qaqaa Site Several U.S Army reservists and National Guard members said they saw widespread looting of explosives from the al-Qaqaa facility in Iraq following the fall of Baghdad, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 2). Nearly 380 tons of explosives — some of which could be used to detonate nuclear weapons — were reported missing last month from the site. About a dozen U.S. troops guarding the facility were unable to prevent the theft of explosives in spring 2003 because they were outnumbered, the soldiers said. Soldiers with the 317th Support Center said they received no response to a message sent to commanders in Baghdad requesting aid in securing the site, according to the Times. “We were running from one side of the compound to the other site, trying to kick people out,” said one senior noncommissioned officer. “On our last day there, there were at least 100 vehicles waiting at the site for us to leave.” “It was complete chaos. It was looting like L.A. during the Rodney King riots,” another officer said. The solders could not confirm that HMX and RDX explosives — two of three types reported missing from al-Qaqaa by the International Atomic Energy Agency — were among the looted items, according to the Times. One soldier said that trucks used by the looters carried away bags labeled “hexamine,” which is an ingredient of HMX, according to the Times (Mark Mazzetti, Los Angeles Times, Nov. 4). Back to top       IAEA, Brazil Close to Final Agreement on Inspections for Resende Uranium Enrichment Site International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors would have partial access to centrifuges at Brazil’s uranium enrichment plant under a tentative agreement between the U.N. agency and Brazilian leaders, diplomats said yesterday (see GSN, Nov. 1). The agency had been waiting for the return of a team of experts sent to the Resende plant before finalizing an agreement, according to the Associated Press. The compromise reached between the agency and Brazil would allow inspectors to see some centrifuge parts while others would be concealed, with computer-generated diagrams provided for additional information, a diplomat said. Inspections would help verify that the Brazilian uranium is developed for weapons uses and not diverted to other locations, AP reported. Limited access, however, would leave open the question of whether Brazil used illicit technology in developing its program. The agency would make its final decision on an agreement after examining the report prepared by the expert team that visited the plant, IAEA spokesman Mark Gwozdecky said (George Jahn, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 3).  Back to top       North Korea Nuclear Talks Expected to Resume Following Bush Re-Election North Korea is more likely to resume negotiations over its nuclear program now that the U.S. presidential election is over, South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said today, according to Reuters (see GSN, Oct. 29). “With the U.S. election over, if the United States pursues an early resumption of the six-party talks, there is a chance that North Korea will respond to a resumption, considering it now has to continue dealing with the Bush administration,” the Yonhap news agency quoted Ban as telling a closed-door meeting of parliament’s foreign affairs committee. A Foreign Ministry spokesman could not confirm the remarks, according to Reuters, but said they generally reflect Seoul’s take on the matter (Reuters, Nov. 4). “At the next round of six-party talks, we will strongly urge North Korea to make a bold decision concerning the issue of the uranium-enrichment program and the dismantlement of its nuclear programs,” Ban said today in testimony to the South Korean National Assembly. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun is scheduled to meet with U.S. President George W. Bush later this month to coordinate policies toward North Korea, Ban said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 4). Some analysts in South Korea predicted that the situation could worsen if Washington does not show an interest in engaging with Pyongyang, AFP reported. “I expect some flexibility (in the U.S. policy toward Pyongyang) because the Bush administration cannot afford to allow this situation in Northeast Asia to become more tense or to threaten a military action,” said Edward Reed, the Seoul-based representative of the Asia Foundation. “With the situation in the Middle East, there is no way [Washington] can afford that,” he added. Bush is likely to push for a settlement to the standoff following criticisms during the U.S. presidential campaign that he had stalled for too long, said Yun Duk-min of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul. “If North Korea keeps refusing to abandon its nuclear program, Bush would shift to a ‘Plan B’ focusing on heaping multipronged pressure on Pyongyang,” said Yun. Seeking to send Pyongyang’s case to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions remains a possibility, Yun added. Paik Hak-soon of the Sejong Institute said North Korea would respond to the added pressure by increasing its nuclear arms efforts. “Bush will turn on Pyongyang with a vengeance and North Korea will see no alternative but to arm itself with nuclear weapons,” Paik said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 4). Back to top       Y-12 Seeks Warhead Manufacturing Plant Upgrade Federal approval is needed for a plan to build a new warhead manufacturing facility at the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Sept. 7). There is widespread support within the National Nuclear Security Administration for replacing the existing operation, according to Y-12 federal manager Bill Brumley. The project is estimated to cost upwards of $1.1 billion. The new facility could take a decade to complete and would replace Y-12’s 9212 complex, where uranium warhead parts are manufactured. “It’s where we do all of our processing, manufacturing, rolling, machining and assembly of our components,” Brumley said. Y-12 is responsible for the manufacture of parts for every weapon in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, according to AP (Associated Press, Nov. 4). Back to top       Bin Laden Seeks Nuclear Weapons, Canada Says Canadian intelligence has warned that terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, the Canadian Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 29). The assessment is included in a June report, entitled Al-Qaeda Possessing Russian Nuclear Briefcases: Fiction or Fact?, prepared by an agency within the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. The report addresses long-standing concerns that al-Qaeda may have obtained Russian “suitcase” nuclear bombs, CP reported. “Al-Qaeda is interested in acquiring nuclear capabilities in order to expand its attack arsenal,” the report states. Russian officials and scientists have said that a suitcase nuclear weapon would be too difficult for terrorists to maintain and have a lifespan of no more than three years, the report states. University of Toronto history professor Wesley Wark said that it was unlikely that al-Qaeda had been successful in obtaining such devices. “I think that there’s great confidence that those kinds of weapons are accounted for and under control,” he said. A “dirty bomb” combining radioactive material with conventional explosives could be a “feasible” alternative for terrorists to a suitcase weapon, according to the report. “Except in the most extreme circumstances, it is unlikely that a radiological ‘dirty bomb’ would result in more casualties than could be achieved with a comparable conventional weapon,” the report states. “However, a contaminated area would pose long-term health concerns and could cause panic within the population” (Jim Bronskill, Canadian Press/Yahoo!News, Nov. 3). Back to top       IAEA Team Visits South Korean Research Facility IAEA inspectors yesterday visited the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute in the South Korean city of Taejon as part of the agency’s investigation into past nuclear experiments by Seoul, according to the Korea Times (see GSN, Nov. 3). A senior South Korean official yesterday called on the U.N. agency to be fair in its investigation, the Times reported. “We hope the U.N. watchdog will fairly and promptly address the case,” said Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Ban Ki-moon (Korea Times, Nov. 4). Back to top       Pakistani Scientist Khan Seeks Health Review Former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who confessed to transferring nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea, may be suffering from declining health while under house arrest, Reuters reported today (see GSN, Oct. 27). Supporters filed a petition yesterday asking that Khan be produced in court so that his health can be assessed. “We are worried about his health. He is psychologically disturbed and is suffering from mental torture ... he is also reported to have had a mild heart attack about 2 1/2 months ago,” said attorney Mohammad Ikram Chaudhry, who filed the petition in the Pakistani Supreme Court. The Pakistani military said last week that the 69-year-old Khan suffered blood pressure and weight loss troubles earlier this year, but has recovered since June, according to Reuters. In a statement, the military said that a checkup conducted last month found Khan in “perfectly good health” (Reuters, Nov. 4). Back to top

Lockheed Martin Delivers Airborne Laser Component U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin announced yesterday the delivery of the flight turret assembly for the Airborne Laser system, intended to be used in U.S. missile defense efforts (see GSN, Aug. 20). The component will make up the “nose” of the modified Boeing 747 used to house the ABL system that would fire a laser to shoot down enemy ballistic missiles shortly after they are launched, according to a Lockheed Martin press release. The flight turret assembly has been shipped to Edwards Air Force Base in California for integration into the ABL system. “Integration and delivery of the FTA — the third major element of our Beam Control/Fire Control segment of ABL — marks a major milestone for both the program and our team,” said Paul Shattuck, ABL technical director for Lockheed Martin Space Systems (Lockheed Martin release, Nov. 3).     Back to top

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