U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday said there was no “smoking-gun” evidence of ties between prewar Iraq and al-Qaeda (U.S. State Department photo). Powell Defends Iraq WMD Stance but Reverses Course on Al-Qaeda Link By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — All but disowning a central claim in the U.S. case for invading Iraq, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday said he believes there is a “possibility” that the Iraqi government of now-toppled President Saddam Hussein had links to the al-Qaeda global terrorist network but that he has seen no hard evidence to support the allegation (see GSN, Jan. 8)...Full Story

Pentagon Advisers Review Troop Vaccine Safety By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A U.S. Defense Department advisory board is reviewing the military’s practice of giving soldiers multiple, simultaneous vaccinations to protect them from certain biological agents and natural diseases...Full Story

North Korea Says It Will Not Copy Libyan Disarmament Policy North Korea said today that it would not adopt a Libyan-style move to disarm its WMD programs in exchange for promises of improved international relations (see GSN, Jan. 8)...Full Story

	Friday, January 9, 2004

U.S. Terrorism Alert Level Lowered to “Elevated” The Bush administration today reduced the national terrorism alert level from orange, representing a “high” risk of attack, to yellow, representing an “elevated” risk (see GSN, Dec. 29, 2003). Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said the alert level was reduced because an urgent threat had passed. “I know we are all thankful that nothing happened,” he said. U.S. airlines and airports, though, will remain at a heightened level of security, a U.S. official said (John Lumpkin, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Jan. 9). Back to top       U.S. Hospitals Are Not Ready for Mass Casualty Events, Paper Says U.S. hospitals remain unprepared to respond to the results of a major incident such as a terrorist attack, according to a paper published this month in the Journal of Homeland Security (see GSN, Oct. 21, 2003). “Despite requirements, standards, and best intentions … most hospitals are still unprepared to effectively manage the results of a major incident — whether due to mishap, terrorism, natural disaster, or infectious disease outbreak — requiring treatment of mass casualties,” says the paper, written by Jeffrey Rubin, a member of the Oregon Health Preparedness Advisory Committee. Rubin outlines several challenges that U.S. hospitals still face in responding to a mass casualty incident, such as communication, decontamination and security concerns. For example, the paper urges hospitals to develop decontamination plans capable of coping with small-scale incidents before they develop unrealistic measures to treat mass casualties.  Currently, most hospital plans “likely fall into the category of ‘fantasy documents’ — that is, meeting legal and political requirements but not grounded in realistic capabilities or expectations and not conferring functionality. The great majority still find single-patient decontamination an elusive goal,” the paper says. The paper also notes continuing challenges in hospital staff training and in staff protection. For example, insufficient and inappropriate personal staff protective gear during last year’s outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) help to disrupt health systems and led to increased risk of exposure by health care workers, the paper says. In addition, the design and implementation of training exercises also poses challenges to hospitals’ abilities to respond to major incidents, it says. Many exercises conducted by hospitals focus more on decision-making and response plan evaluation that actual “hands-on operations,” as well as lack an element of surprise and focus on the most populated shifts, according to the paper. “The combination of insufficient training and ineffective exercises deprives staff of experience in improvisation and decision-making, thus increasing the likelihood that a single significant obstacle (for example, difficulty setting up decontamination equipment, or even presentation of a contaminated patient) can derail the exercise or actual response,” the paper says (Jeffrey Rubin, Journal of Homeland Security, January 2004). Back to top

Powell Defends Iraq WMD Stance but Reverses Course on Al-Qaeda Link By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — All but disowning a central claim in the U.S. case for invading Iraq, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday said he believes there is a “possibility” that the Iraqi government of now-toppled President Saddam Hussein had links to the al-Qaeda global terrorist network but that he has seen no hard evidence to support the allegation (see GSN, Jan. 8). The secretary’s remarks came in response to a report released yesterday by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace scholars Joseph Cirincione, Jessica Mathews and George Perkovich that indicated Bush administration officials misrepresented intelligence in making a case for war in Iraq. Last Feb. 5, Powell presented the case for war to the U.N. Security Council, devoting more than 1,500 words to the alleged link between al-Qaeda and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s government (see GSN, Feb. 5, 2003). “Iraqi officials,” Powell said last February, “deny accusations of ties with al-Qaeda. These denials are simply not credible. … Going back to the early and mid-1990s, when bin Laden was based in Sudan, an al-Qaeda source tells us that Saddam and bin Laden reached an understanding that al-Qaeda would no longer support activities against Baghdad. Early al-Qaeda ties were forged by secret high-level intelligence service contacts with al-Qaeda, secret Iraqi intelligence high-level contacts with al-Qaeda.” In the same presentation, Powell said an agent of Hussein was among the senior leadership of the group Ansar al-Islam, which was allegedly harboring al-Qaeda members from Afghanistan in Iraq, and that, according to a “senior al-Qaeda terrorist,” Iraq had directly provided chemical and biological weapon training to al-Qaeda members. After the Carnegie experts yesterday called into question claims of an Iraq-al-Qaeda connection, however, Powell did not repeat or defend such assertions. “I have not seen smoking-gun, concrete evidence about the connection, but I think the possibility of such connections did exist, and it was prudent to consider them at the time that we did,” he said. Powell also told the council last year that Hussein was harboring Abu Massad al-Zakawi, described by Powell last February as an “associate and collaborator” of al-Qaeda head Osama bin Laden, and that al-Zakawi had set up a terrorist training camp in Iraq where ricin production was being taught, as well as a base for “al-Qaeda affiliates” in Baghdad. Yesterday, the secretary limited himself to defending what he called “a pretty solid case” for the U.S. claims about al-Zawaki. The Carnegie report said, “There was and is no solid evidence of a cooperative relationship between Saddam’s government and al-Qaeda.  There was no evidence to support the claim that Iraq would have transferred WMD to al-Qaeda and much evidence to counter it.” Powell did not respond yesterday to a reporter’s question about whether Iraq would have given weapons of mass destruction to the terrorist group. Powell Says Iraq “Thwarted” Inspections, Maintained WMD Programs The Carnegie report alleges that the Bush administration both misrepresented the views of intelligence agencies on Iraq and appears to have unduly influenced the agencies’ work. Despite backtracking on al-Qaeda, Powell generally defended the intelligence cited by the administration. “I am confident of what I presented last year. The intelligence community is confident of the material they gave me. I was representing them.  It was information they presented to the Congress. It was information they had presented publicly, and they stand behind it, and this game is still unfolding,” Powell said. “The fact of the matter is Iraq did have weapons of mass destruction and programs of weapons of mass destruction. … There is, I think, a solid case that has been made to many governments by their intelligence agencies, and that has been the consistent view of U.N. inspectors and of the United States intelligence community, that this was a danger we had to worry about,” he said. Powell contradicted the report’s claim that Iraq’s nuclear, biological and chemical programs presented no immediate threat and that only Iraq’s missile program was still in active development before the war. Saddam Hussein “kept the infrastructure. He kept the programs intact,” Powell said, adding that the question of why U.S. inspectors “haven’t … found huge stockpiles” of weapons has not yet been resolved. “Let’s let the Iraqi Survey Group complete its work,” he said of the U.S. weapon hunt team led by David Kay. Cirincione responded in an interview today, “All the evidence, including the testimony of Dr. David Kay, indicates that there was no ongoing capability in Iraq for the production of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, nor is there any evidence that there was a large stockpile of chemical or biological weapons left in Iraq after the mid-1990s.” In general, Powell played down the difference between the report’s findings and the positions of the United States, saying that the report ― which he said he had not read ― indicates “there was that capability within Iraq, and they were doing these kinds of things, and they [the Carnegie experts] believe that we perhaps overstated it, but they did not say it wasn’t there.” “Our very first finding,” replied Cirincione today, “is that Iraq’s WMD programs represented a long-term threat that could not be ignored. However, they did not pose an immediate threat to the United States, to the region or to global security, and what we mean by that is what Secretary Powell also said: that there may have remained an intent by Saddam Hussein to reconstitute these programs sometime in the future.” “However,” he continued, “that is not what the administration said before the war. We didn’t go to war over intent.” The Financial Times reported today that the CIA is planning to use congressional hearings on the Iraq intelligence to defend its assessments of the Iraqi threat and to deny that the administration inappropriately influenced intelligence work. Back to top

North Korea Says It Will Not Copy Libyan Disarmament Policy North Korea said today that it would not adopt a Libyan-style move to disarm its WMD programs in exchange for promises of improved international relations (see GSN, Jan. 8). Libya announced last month that it would scrap its WMD efforts and allow international inspectors to verify the shutdown (see GSN, Jan. 8). Pyongyang, on the other hand, said any expectations that it would follow suit would be “a folly of imbeciles utterly ignorant of the D.P.R.K.’s independent policy,” according to a Foreign Ministry statement released by the state-run Korean Central News Agency. “To expect any change from the D.P.R.K. stand is as foolish as expecting a shower from clear sky,” the statement said. “The D.P.R.K. has never been influenced by others and this will not happen in the future,” it added (Reuters, Jan. 9). The United States, meanwhile, would not offer a nonaggression pact to North Korea unless it agrees to drop its nuclear weapons ambitions, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said yesterday. “We have to begin with [North Korea saying], ‘We’re not going to do it and we’re not going to do it in a verifiable manner,” Powell said. “In return for that, we will describe the kind of security assurances we will give. And they also have to make it clear that what they’re doing is permanent, because we don’t want to see this movie again,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Jan. 9). Desire to Prove Nuclear Ability Might Spur Yongbyon Visit North Korea could allow a U.S. delegation of nuclear and foreign policy experts now in the country to visit the Yongbyon nuclear site in an attempt to demonstrate North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability. Pyongyang wants to “show how serious it is about nuclear development,” according to a diplomatic source in Tokyo. “It could be the last chance before North Korea decides whether to declare itself a nuclear state and negotiate with the United States,” the source added (Paul Eckert, Reuters, Jan. 9). On U.S. delegation member, Congressional staffer Frank Jannuzi, said today that “so far the visit has been good,” but refused to provide any details of the delegation’s activities (Agence France-Presse/International Herald Tribune, Jan. 9). Back to top

Pentagon Advisers Review Troop Vaccine Safety By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A U.S. Defense Department advisory board is reviewing the military’s practice of giving soldiers multiple, simultaneous vaccinations to protect them from certain biological agents and natural diseases. Ellen Embrey, deputy assistant secretary of defense for force health protection and readiness, last October requested the review by the Armed Forces Epidemiological Board (AFEB), which is composed of top civilian experts from around the country. The board is expected to present its findings at a regular meeting next month. The request was made while a subcommittee of the board and another panel were investigating a possible relationship between military-administered vaccines and the illnesses or deaths of four personnel. Both panels in November concluded that vaccination might have triggered the April 2003 death of 22-year-old Army Reservist Specialist Rachel Lacy (see GSN, Nov. 19, 2003). In March last year, she received five vaccinations — against anthrax, hepatitis B, measles-mumps-rubella, smallpox and typhoid fever — at the time she was mobilized for service in Afghanistan.  The panels said they could not conclude whether a particular vaccination was a trigger in Lacy’s death, as the vaccines were administered simultaneously. In their publicly released findings, they did not address whether Lacy’s illness may have been triggered by complications from receiving the vaccinations concurrently. “To take it to the ‘Epi’ Board means there is somebody who is very concerned about it,” said AFEB member John Glen Morris, a University of Maryland Medical School professor and chairman of the school’s Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. Concern Over Anthrax Vaccine Military officials called Lacy’s case rare, citing a long-standing military practice of giving multiple, simultaneous vaccinations, noting that other soldiers in her unit had received the same vaccinations, and saying that there have been no other cases like Lacy’s. According to the Pentagon, more than 900,000 personnel have received the anthrax vaccine and 500,000 have been inoculated against smallpox. Some independent experts have questioned whether U.S. military vaccinations were responsible for other serious illnesses among U.S. forces. The military has not changed any of its vaccination policies, including that of giving multiple, concurrent vaccinations, as a result of the panel’s determination in the Lacy case. “At this point, we know of no objective evidence sufficient to warrant a change in the immunization practices common in both military and civilian clinics,” the Pentagon said in a Nov. 19 statement. As evidence of safety, officials point to a review of scientific evidence released by the U.S. Institute of Medicine in February 2002 that concluded that concurrent administration of common vaccines was safe for children. There have in recent years, however, been numerous investigations in the United Kingdom into the safety of concurrent immunizations given to military personnel. For at least five years, the Defense Ministry has been investigating possible health effects from concurrent vaccinations and tablets given for protection against biological and chemical warfare and natural diseases during the 1991 Gulf War. A senior British defense official last October disclosed that British health authorities as late as 1999 advised against administering the anthrax vaccine with others, and the British Medicines Control Agency earlier found no evidence for safe use of the anthrax vaccine in combination with others. In 1998, the Defense Ministry temporarily halted the concurrent administration of the anthrax vaccine (see GSN, Oct. 20, 2003). Other findings, however, have concluded there was no evidence suggesting anthrax vaccines should be administered alone. Preliminary conclusions from research on marmosets, a small primate, presented by a Defense Ministry laboratory last year, found no acute short-term health consequences resulted from administration of pyridostigmine bromide, a nerve agent pretreatment drug, and 10 vaccines, including those for anthrax, pertussis and plague. The issue is now under review by the U.S. AFEB because “there’s not a cut-and-dried answer,” Morris said. Army Study The U.S. military currently is facing a high-profile lawsuit by six anonymous personnel who oppose the mandatory anthrax vaccinations and are charging that the vaccine is unsafe and should only be considered as “investigational” for protection against inhalation anthrax (see GSN, Jan. 8). Col. John Grabenstein of the U.S. Army Surgeon General’s office said last month that no single vaccine has been singled out as a particular concern for multiple vaccinations in the U.S. research. “Anthrax vaccine, which is an FDA-licensed vaccine, will receive the same scrutiny as all other vaccines. There is no scientific basis for doing otherwise,” he said. He said the Pentagon also is planning to conduct its own study of concurrent immunization safety using military databases of inpatient and outpatient visits. Back to top       U.S. Authorities Arrest Two Women for Ricin Possession Two California women may face criminal biological weapons charges following their arrest this week for attempted murder, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Nov. 25, 2003). Astrid Tepatti and Ebony Wood were arrested after authorities found a container of ricin Sunday in their car, AP reported. Authorities also found a pistol, a recipe for ricin and a container of castor beans, which are used to make the toxin. Authorities have said that Tepatti and Wood were lovers who planned to kill Tepatti’s husband, a U.S. Marine, for insurance money. They also said that Tepatti had tried to kill her husband with Wood’s help earlier Sunday by shooting at him with a pistol equipped with a potato silencer, but the man was unharmed. Tepatti and Wood have been charged with attempted murder and could also face charges of manufacturing, possessing and transporting a biological weapon, according to AP (Seth Hettena, Associated Press/SignOnSanDiego.com, Jan. 8). Meanwhile, the FBI yesterday announced a reward of up to $10,000 for information leading to the arrest of the person or people responsible for a package containing ricin found at a South Carolina postal facility in October, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Oct. 24, 2003; Associated Press/USA Today, Jan. 8). Back to top

Utah Chemical Disposal Supervisor Sentenced Next Week A former supervisor at the Deseret Chemical Depot in Utah will be sentenced next week for falsifying the results of air monitoring tests, the Tooele Transcript Bulletin reported (see GSN, July 29, 2003). David Yarbrough was convicted last summer on seven counts of falsifying air monitoring tests and faces up to 35 years in federal prison. He is set to be sentenced Tuesday. Yarbrough worked in the Oquirrh Mountain Facility Plant, which was responsible for developing new technologies for chemical weapons destruction. Prosecutors alleged that Yarbrough submitted results falsely showing that depot equipment had passed safety testing. U.S. officials suspended operations at Oquirrh in July 2002 because of inconsistencies found in tests supervised by Yarbrough. Defense attorney Earl Xiaz said during the trial that the records were not falsified but instead Yarbrough was working with a different type of test. Yarbrough himself said that it was not possible to familiarize a jury with the technical workings of the chemical depot during the course of a three-day trial. “The court was total confusion amid objections, rulings and exaggerations,” Yarbrough said. “Then (government prosecutors) used the scare and terror of ‘weapons of mass destruction,’” he added. Yarbrough said that he is being used as a scapegoat for numerous failings at the plant and “the Army has decided to clean house” after disagreements over the correct form of testing. “Additional methods must be implemented to speed the removal of these deadly chemical agents,” he said. “The Army cannot hide the fact that the furnace stack monitoring is so seriously flawed that it is nonexistent,” Yarbrough added. Deseret spokeswoman Alaine Southworth said the facility is committed to operating safely. “This episode with Mr. Yarbrough has been an unfortunate violation of worker trust,” she said (Mary Ruth Hammond, Tooele Transcript Bulletin, Jan. 9). Back to top

Canadian Politicians Debate Missile Defense Cooperation Canada is not certain to join the U.S. missile defense shield, despite imminent high-level negotiations, Canadian Defense Minister David Pratt said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 8). Pratt is set to exchange formal letters soon with U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, paving the way for talks. “It’s an expression of goodwill in terms of good-faith negotiations. It’s a desire to have more access to detailed information about the security architecture of the ballistic missile defense system, and it’s nothing more than that,” Pratt said. “It’s not a road that we’re proceeding down from which we cannot turn and come back,” he added (Allison Dunfield, Globe and Mail, Jan. 9). Canada will make a decision before the defense shield is fielded. “Obviously, it has to be done before the rollout of the system in October,” Pratt said (John Ward, Canadian Press/Toronto Star, Jan. 8). Some Canadian lawmakers have opposed the effort and say that U.S. cooperation would cause international unrest. New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton said that the system is “a profoundly dangerous idea,” will not work and could cost a great deal of money. Even those who support the effort urged caution before joining the controversial missile defense system. “Test 1 is, do we have some effective role or influence,” said John Godfrey, lawmaker who favors negotiations. “Test 2 — does it significantly and demonstrably increase the security of Canadians? And thirdly, we absolutely have to draw the bottom line at anything that leads to the weaponization of space,” he added (Dunfield, Globe and Mail). A Canadian Department of National Defense report, however, warns that the missile shield could open the door to weapons in space. “A significant risk associated with BMD [Ballistic Missile Defense] from the nonproliferation and disarmament perspective is its reinforcement of trends towards the weaponization of outer space,” defense officials wrote in the report, produced last spring (Canadian Press/Edmonton Journal, Jan. 9). Pratt said that possibility, however, would not stop Canada from taking part in the missile defense shield. “I think there is a recognition that even the possible use of weapons in space is so far off into the future, that this is not a concern that we’re having to deal with, with the Americans,” he said (Daniel LeBlanc, Globe and Mail, Jan. 9). Back to top       Lockheed Plans Interceptor With “Several Dozen” Miniature Kill Vehicles U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin plans to build a Miniature Kill Vehicle system with “several dozen” small interceptors on top of a single rocket, Aerospace Daily reported today (see GSN, Jan. 8). The company won a Missile Defense Agency contract this week to develop the next generation missile defense system. The defense system is being developed to counter missiles that field multiple warheads or decoys. The interceptors would measure about 6 to 8 inches in diameter and about 10 inches long, according to Doug Graham, vice president of Lockheed Martin Space Systems. The soon-to-be fielded Raytheon missile defense system uses one kill vehicle that is about 24 inches in diameter and 55 inches long. The carrier vehicle would use an infrared seeker to close on a target area and it would then release the miniature interceptors. The kill vehicles would use their own infrared seekers to destroy warheads and decoys, according to Aerospace Daily. Lockheed officials said the actual number of miniature interceptors attached to a missile would depend on “operational scenarios.” Graham said that the miniature kill vehicles would be traveling at thousands of miles per hour and would destroy ballistic missiles despite their size. “The kinetic energy generated at those speeds is just huge,” he said (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily, Jan. 9). Back to top

Not Guilty Plea Expected Today From British “Dirty Bomb” Suspect A British man is expected to plead not guilty when he enters a U.S. court today on charges of attempting to sell a wide variety of weapons, including “dirty bombs” to undercover agents posing as terrorists, according to the Press Association (see GSN, Dec. 29, 2003). Hemant Lakhani, 68, has been charged with several counts, including attempting to provide material support to terrorists and the unlawful brokering of foreign defense articles, according to PA. Lakhani was arrested in Newark, N.J, in August after being captured in an undercover operation conducted by the FBI and Russian intelligence (Mark Sage, Press Association, Jan. 8).   Back to top

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