U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, shown with French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin earlier this month, defended the U.S. war in Iraq today (AFP photo/Frederic de la Mure). Hussein’s Intentions Made War Necessary, Says Powell By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell today mounted a fresh defense of the war in Iraq on the grounds that now-toppled Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would have acquired stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction if the war had not taken place (see GSN, Feb. 18)...Full Story

Iranian Nuclear Discoveries Raises Doubts Over Peaceful Intentions The recent discoveries made by international nuclear inspectors working in Iran have cast doubt on Tehran’s pledge of seeking only a peaceful civilian nuclear power program, diplomatic officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 19)...Full Story

Questions Linger Over Pentagon’s Use of Multiple, Simultaneous Vaccinations By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Questions persist about possible serious health risks faced by U.S. military personnel who are required to receive multiple, simultaneous vaccinations, some national experts said this week...Full Story

	Friday, February 20, 2004

Hussein’s Intentions Made War Necessary, Says Powell By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell today mounted a fresh defense of the war in Iraq on the grounds that now-toppled Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would have acquired stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction if the war had not taken place (see GSN, Feb. 18). “There was no intention on his part not to have the intention for such weapons and programs,” Powell said in a speech at Princeton University to mark the 100th birthday of George Kennan, the former U.S. statesman who heavily influenced U.S. Cold War policies. “We will get to the bottom of this,” Powell said of widely discredited prewar assertions that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Powell added, though, that Hussein had the capability and the intention to produce such weapons and that whether Iraq had weapon stockpiles should not now be the focus of U.S. intelligence efforts. In a landmark speech last February, Powell warned the U.N. Security Council of “the threat that Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction pose to the world.” Powell told the council that “there can be no doubt that Saddam Hussein has biological weapons” and cited a “conservative estimate” that Iraq had 100-500 tons of chemical weapon agents. Bush administration descriptions of the prewar Iraqi WMD threat, however, have become considerably more cautious since former Iraq Survey Group head David Kay’s assertion last month that he and others who believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction were “wrong” (see GSN, Jan. 29). Powell said today that Iraq “kept waving the specter of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons into the face of the civilized world.” He said “most responsible intelligence agencies around the world” believed Iraq had stockpiles of banned weapons. Repeating the U.S. claim that Hussein had ties to terrorist groups, Powell said that Hussein “created a laboratory where weapons of mass destruction and terrorism could mix,” making Iraq “an even more dangerous place” than Afghanistan under the Taliban. Speaking Jan. 8, Powell said there is no hard evidence linking Hussein’s government to al-Qaeda, the terrorist network behind the September 2001 attacks on the United States (see GSN, Jan. 9). “If the international community had not acted at this time … it was just a matter of time before that intention, capability, delivery system and all the other wherewithal that he had would have produced the stockpiles,” Powell said today. Powell also discussed recent developments in Iran, Libya, North Korea and the Asian subcontinent, calling himself “optimistic” about the chances for curbing nuclear proliferation around the world. “U.S. policies over many administrations have reassured friends and allies that they don’t need to pursue nuclear weapons,” said Powell, calling the reassurance the “most important” reason for progress in combating proliferation. Another reason, he said, is that “nearly every government wants good relations with the United States, but not all. I wish it were all, but not all.” Back to top       Washington May Delay Implementing Syria Sanctions Law The Bush administration might delay imposing new economic sanctions against Syria to give Damascus more time to comply with demands to end the activities of terrorist groups within its borders and to prevent militants and weapons from entering Iraq, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 13). Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the Bush administration is considering how to implement the Syria Accountability Act, a law created last year that that requires Syria to suffer economic penalties if it fails to end its alleged WMD activities and official support for terrorism. While the administration is frustrated with Syria, Damascus may be given as much as six months to comply with U.S. demands before the sanctions called for in the law are imposed, a State Department official said (Salamander Davoudi, Financial Times, Feb. 20). Back to top       Greece May Seek NATO Help With Olympics Security Greece is likely to seek NATO assistance with security at this summer’s Olympic Games, top Greek officials said (see GSN, Jan. 23). According to Paul Anastasi, a spokesman for the Athens city government, preparations for the event already resemble “a semi-military operation.” With security costs alone already nearing $1 billion, which is more than triple the amount spent on security at the last summer games in Sydney in 2000, officials said that Greece could submit a formal request to the alliance as soon as Friday, when NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer is set to visit Athens. Even if the government does not choose to formally seek assistance from the alliance, Greece has already called on individual NATO allies for help. Officials said that NATO surveillance aircraft will monitor the city during the games. The 6th U.S. Fleet would also be “on standby,” according to Greek Defense Minister Yannos Papantoniou. About 90,000 Greek troops and police officers are scheduled to monitor borders and patrol the capital, but it remains unclear whether Greece would allow foreign troops or foreign armed guards for international athletes. Because the Greek Constitution gives Parliament the power to approve the presence of foreign military in the country, such requests could be delayed until after the March 7 general elections, in which a close struggle between the Socialist government and conservative opposition is being waged. The Athens Games, scheduled for Aug. 13 to 29, will be the first summer Olympics since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. “In a sense this has become the big global test,” said Alex Rondos, an official at the Greek Foreign Ministry responsible for international coordination of Olympic security. “Given what we have learned since 9/11 about the nature of international terrorism, can we — internationally — handle such an event with a sense of assurance about the security?” he added (Thomas Fuller, International Herald Tribune, Feb. 20). Back to top

Iranian Nuclear Discoveries Raises Doubts Over Peaceful Intentions The recent discoveries made by international nuclear inspectors working in Iran have cast doubt on Tehran’s pledge of seeking only a peaceful civilian nuclear power program, diplomatic officials said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 19). Last week, international inspectors discovered designs for a previously unknown Iranian uranium enrichment program, according to the Washington Post. In addition, a small number of complete P-2 advanced enrichment centrifuges have been found at one Iranian location, and machine tools used to produce centrifuge components have been found at a different site described as a “military-related” facility, the Post reported. Tests conducted on centrifuge equipment have found traces of two distinct types of highly enriched uranium, according to U.S. and European experts. One type is believed to have originated in Pakistan, with the origin of the other still unknown, the Post reported. The discoveries will be included in a report set to be soon released by the International Atomic Energy Agency. A Vienna-based diplomat said the agency report would provide “evidence that the Iranians’ dossier was neither complete nor correct.” A U.S. State Department official said yesterday that the agency’s Board of Governors would probably not refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, despite the recent discoveries, because of a reluctance to impose tough measures against Tehran. The finds, however, have damaged chances for improved U.S.-Iranian relations, the official said. “It was always the hope that you could lead them away from the conclusion that they needed a nuclear weapon through a policy of inducements. But it’s starting to look more and more like they want the inducements and the bomb,” the State Department official said (Slevin/Warrick, Washington Post, Feb. 20). White House press secretary Scott McClellan said yesterday that the recent Iranian discoveries “raise serious concerns,” and reiterated the U.S. assessment that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. “We have always stated our belief that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons program under the cover of pursuing nuclear power for peaceful reasons. A country with the vast oil and gas resources of Iran has no legitimate need for nuclear energy, and full confidence about Iran’s nuclear program requires Iran to abandon uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities,” McClellan said (U.S. State Department release, Feb. 19). Iran today, however, issued a broad denial of allegations that it was seeking a nuclear bomb. “There was a report that they found (nuclear equipment) parts in some military base, which was not true,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said. “What we have is a research project that hasn’t been implemented yet. There are no parts in any place in Iran. They are just trying to create a fuss about this,” he said (Reuters, Feb. 20). Back to top       Backroom Bargaining Is Underway on North Korea Nuclear Talks With only four days left before multilateral nuclear talks over the North Korean nuclear crisis begin in Beijing, behind-the scenes negotiators have already worked to shape a joint statement that will conclude the round, the Straits Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 19). The six-nation talks — including China, Japan, Russia, North and South Korea and the United States — are attempting to produce more substantial results than the initial round of talks did in August 2003, according to the Times. This time, the parties are hoping that a draft agreement prior to the talks could help yield a signed statement, as well as prevent dragging out the meeting (Jason Leow, The Straits Times, Feb. 20). North Korea has long acknowledged the existence of a plutonium-based nuclear program, but in 2002, the United States accused Pyongyang of developing a parallel uranium-based program that was subsequently denied by Pyongyang. The issue of North Korea’s uranium enrichment capabilities remains at the heart of Bush administration concerns leading into the talks. An administration official today reiterated the U.S. position that North Korea must halt all nuclear activities (Steven/Sanger, New York Times, Feb. 20). According to the Washington Post, North Korean officials have hinted in recent weeks to other Asian diplomats that Pyongyang might be willing to acknowledge the existence of a uranium-based program. A senior U.S. official also received information recently from a North Korean representative to the United Nations that North Korea is ready to make a “bold concession” at the talks. However, a senior State Department official yesterday sought to lower expectations, stating, “this needs to be seen as a step in a process, that the success or failure will be judged at a later point in the process when we have results.” The administration’s expectations are “neither high nor low,” he added (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Feb. 20). Back to top       Suspected Nuclear Smuggler May Have Aided India as Well as Pakistan An Israeli businessman charged in the United States with exporting nuclear weapon-capable technology to Pakistan may also have worked to help arm India, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, Jan. 13). Last month, U.S. authorities arrested South Africa-based Asher Karni during a visit to the United States on allegations that he obtained the equipment that could be used as nuclear weapon “triggers” for Pakistan from a U.S. company through front companies and fraudulent documents, AP reported. Court papers filed by U.S. federal prosecutors in the case include e-mail exchanges between Karni and an Indian businessman seeking to covertly obtain materials for two Indian rocket factories, AP reported. The e-mails, from Raghavendra Rao of Foretek Marketing (Pvt.) Ltd., ask Karni to obtain three types of high-tech equipment while concealing that they were meant for the rocket laboratories Liquid Propulsion System Center and the Vikram Sarabhai Space Center, according to AP. The United States restricts exports to the two Indian rocket facilities. The court documents also describe additional deals Karni made with his Pakistani contact, Humayun Khan of the company Pakland PME, AP reported. One such deal involved an attempt by Karni to obtain an oscilloscope capable of being used in nuclear weapons efforts through the same U.S. company, Giza Technologies Inc., that he used to acquire the triggers. In May, Karni asked Tektronix Inc., which makes the oscilloscope, if he could purchase one for Pakistan, according to the court records. The company, however, told Karni he needed to first obtain a U.S. export license, and there was no indication Karni contacted Tektronix again. Prosecutors and Karni’s lawyers agreed yesterday to postpone a hearing to determine if he can be freed on bond while awaiting trial (Matt Kelley, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 20).  Back to top       Malaysian Police Report Details Nuclear Smuggling Network An alleged middleman in the international nuclear network has told Malaysian authorities that top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan sold nuclear equipment to Iran and shipped Pakistani uranium to Libya, Malaysian police said today (see GSN, Feb. 19). Malaysian authorities have questioned Buhary Syed Abu (B.S.A.) Tahir in connection with his alleged activities on behalf of Khan in Malaysia, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Feb. 13). A police report released today says Tahir told authorities that Khan had asked him to send two containers of used uranium enrichment centrifuge components from Pakistan to Iran in 1994 or 1995. In exchange, an unnamed Iranian paid “about $3 million,” the report says. Tahir has also told authorities that Libya received enriched uranium from Pakistani in 2001, according to police. Malaysian authorities said the report would be provided to the International Atomic Energy Agency, and that they would cooperate with the agency if it seeks further action. There are no plans yet, though, to arrest Tahir because it does not appear that he violated any Malaysian laws, officials said (Rohan Sullivan, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 20). Back to top

Questions Linger Over Pentagon’s Use of Multiple, Simultaneous Vaccinations By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Questions persist about possible serious health risks faced by U.S. military personnel who are required to receive multiple, simultaneous vaccinations, some national experts said this week. The Armed Forces Epidemiological Board met in Florida this week to review that question and other possible consequences of the vaccine policy, such as the risk of lesser side effects. The review could prompt the board to recommend spreading out military vaccinations over time when possible. “There are reasons that if you have that opportunity, it probably makes sense to try to do it,” board president Stephen Ostroff, who is the associate director for epidemiologic science at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an interview yesterday. The military is evaluating simultaneous vaccinations in response to the April 2003 death of 22-year-old Army Reservist Specialist Rachel Lacy, who was vaccinated against anthrax, hepatitis B, measles-mumps-rubella, smallpox and typhoid fever a month earlier as she was preparing for service in Afghanistan (see GSN, Jan. 9, 2004). Low Risk of Serious Illness Reviewing previous studies, national experts presenting to the board Tuesday reported little biological or epidemiological evidence suggesting that simultaneously administering vaccinations could pose a risk of serious illness to the average soldier. “There are a lot of individuals who have received multiple vaccinations over long periods of time, both inside the military and outside the military … and there is relatively little data that suggests it is a particular problem,” Ostroff said. Some presenters concluded, however, that more research is needed to examine whether simultaneous military vaccinations could prompt perfectly healthy personnel with latent immunologic diseases such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis to contract those diseases. A post-mortem examination of Lacy’s blood specimens showed evidence of latent antibodies suggesting a predisposition to lupus, Ostroff said. “There is at least some scientific information that suggests that it is possible that this could stimulate some parts of the immune system that could potentially activate latent disease,” Ostroff said. “Now that’s all based on basic research and how well that translates into clinical experience is always difficult to know,” he added.   Possible Screening? The possibility could present difficulties for the military.  “Can you screen for [latent predisposition to such diseases] and if you do screen for that, what does that mean for their future careers? Is there something you would do differently?” Ostroff said. “I think that is part of what will ultimately have to be deliberated in terms of what our final response will be,” he said. For the sake of expediency, the military has for decades quickly given large numbers of service personnel simultaneous vaccinations against natural diseases and more recently against potential biological weapons agents such as anthrax and smallpox that they might encounter on a deployment. “Simultaneous immunization bears considerable advantage in efficiency increasing the immunity of military personnel, returning them to duty with few medical visits,” according to Col. John Grabenstein of the U.S. Army Medical Command, in a slideshow delivered to the board.   Citing numerous studies, Grabenstein concluded that, “Published evidence and accumulated experience of tens of millions of simultaneous vaccinations over decades suggests that harm from simultaneous vaccinations per se (in contrast to same number of separate vaccinations) is either very rare or nonexistent.” He wrote also though that, “Additional work is need[ed] to help identify risk factors that might predispose to rare problems.” Spreading Out Vaccinations Seems Preferable Lacy’s case raised another issue under consideration by the board relevant to the simultaneous vaccination issue. Two panels in November said they were unable to conclude whether her death might have been prompted by a reaction to one specific vaccine since the effects of one vaccine can be difficult to isolate when given simultaneously with others (see GSN, Nov. 19, 2003). “If they do have problems after receiving [a] vaccine, it’s hard to know which one they are having a reaction to if you’re giving them at the same time,” Ostroff said. Presentations to the board this week also suggested that the simultaneous vaccination practice could increase less-severe side effects, he said. “There was a sense that at least for the overall well being of the individual that’s getting them, it is preferable to spread them out,” he said. Back to top       Scientists Report Success in Using Hepatitis Drug to Treat Anthrax By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Anthrax treatment researchers at the University of Chicago reported success this week in using an already available drug intended to treat hepatitis B (see GSN, Oct. 8, 2003). The researchers, led by Wei-Jen Tang, an associate professor at the university’s Ben May Institute for Cancer Research, reported their findings in a study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Tang’s team discovered that the drug adefovir dipivoxil, sold commercially as Hepsera, blocked one of three toxins produced by the anthrax bacterium known as edema factor. According to a university press release, in the early stage of anthrax infection, edema factor interferes with the human immune system, allowing anthrax bacteria to replicate within the body and produce harmful toxins. Later, edema factor itself can also cause massive tissue damage, including the blackened lesions that give the disease its name. The word “anthrax” originates in the Greek word anthrakos, meaning “coal.”   In cell culture tests, Tang’s team found that adefovir dipivoxil, originally intended to prevent the hepatitis B virus from replicating, works to block the effects of edema factor. The drug’s effectiveness means that only a small amount would be necessary for use as a treatment, and that such small amounts would also reduce the possible risks of side effects, the university statement said.  The research could lead to new treatments to help combat anthrax during the later stage of infection, Tang told Global Security Newswire yesterday. At that stage, the use of antibiotics alone, as was done during the 2001 anthrax attacks for those infected with the disease, is not enough to combat the toxins produced by the damage and to prevent the resultant damage, he said.  “We want to create a line of defense at every possible stage [of infection],” Tang said. The next stage of research will involve testing the drug’s effectiveness on small animals infected with anthrax, such as mice, Tang said. Future animal testing will involve progressively larger animals, such as rabbits and monkeys, he said. Tang said that he is currently applying for grants from the National Institutes of Health to continue the research, and added that he would like to see NIH ultimately take over the project. In addition, Gilead Sciences, the maker of Hepsera, has also expressed interest in the research, but is unsure of the potential market for the drug, Tang said. One key benefit of adapting existing drugs for use against biological warfare agents, such as anthrax, is an acceleration of research because the safety of the drug is already known, Tang said. He added, though, that many drug companies are more interested in developing brand-new treatments because of the financial and “egotistical” benefits they bring. Back to top       U.S. Army Assigns Soldiers Who Refused Anthrax Vaccine to Iraq Despite a U.S. Defense Department policy requiring anthrax vaccinations for all service members assigned to combat areas, at least four soldiers who refused the vaccine have been sent to Iraq, the Hartford Courant reported Tuesday (see GSN, Jan. 9). Three of the four soldiers were charged in the last two months with disobeying a direct order to receive the vaccine, but the Army chose to deploy them in Iraq instead of prosecuting them, according to the Courant. The fourth soldier was charged over a year ago before he was sent to Iraq. Critics of the Pentagon’s anthrax vaccination policy have said the deployments demonstrate the lack of an anthrax threat, the Courant reported. “This is the first hint that a few courageous operational commanders are beginning to exercise judgment, and are acknowledging what Pentagon leaders will not — that the anthrax threat was simply political hype that is no longer worth losing good soldiers over,” said retired Air Force Lt. Col. John Richardson, who has participated in a campaign to end the mandatory inoculations (Thomas Williams, Hartford Courant, Feb. 17). Back to top       U.S. Smallpox Vaccination Program Hindered by Overburdened Health System, Study Finds An overburdened public health system, low volunteer rates and liability issues have undermined the U.S. smallpox vaccination program, according to a new study in the Journal of Homeland Security (see GSN, Jan. 30). The researchers assert that the “probability of a smallpox bioterrorist event remains unknown, but the level of vulnerability of the United States population makes the threat too great to ignore.” Due to such concerns, the United States announced a multiphase smallpox preparedness program in late 2002 that included a first-stage goal of vaccinating 500,000 public health workers on a voluntary basis. However, the number of health care workers vaccinated since then, about 40,000, has fallen far short of the goal. The researchers, American Public Health Association Executive Director Georges Benjamin and others, conclude that the vaccination campaign “fell on a public health system bereft of infrastructure and resources.” One state official quoted in the study called the program, “an unfunded mandate eating the [state] money.” The researchers add, “Despite the best of efforts, the lack of specifically awarded smallpox vaccination funding was an impediment to the … program.” The study also finds that many potential volunteers chose not to receive the vaccine because of perceived health risks, implying that “states needed to address the risk-benefit analysis that potential volunteers were likely conducting on a personal level before deciding to be vaccinated.” The study concludes that the resulting “logistical, recruitment, and screening challenges … contributed to lower-than-anticipated numbers of vaccines.” In addition, the study concludes that concerns about liability issues kept potential vaccinees away. Because of a risk of side effects, including the low risk of death, “public health officials had early concerns regarding compensation and liability,” the study says (Journal of Homeland Security, February 2004). Back to top       Fort Detrick Scientist Quarantined After Possible Exposure to Ebola After possibly exposing herself to the Ebola virus, a U.S. scientist has been placed in a special isolation facility at the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md., the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, Dec. 12, 2003). Working at the Army’s primary biological defense research facility, the researcher accidentally stuck herself with a needle last week while working with mice infected with a weakened form of the Ebola virus. The woman is now under observation in an isolation room at Fort Detrick and has shown no symptoms of Ebola, U.S. Army spokesman Chuck Dasey said. Immediately after the incident, the woman was allowed to go home because there was no risk of her spreading the infection, and she returned the next day to begin isolation, Dasey said. “She reported the incident appropriately to the clinic, and the staff there discussed it and determined there was no risk in her going home that night,” Dasey said. “If you get the disease and get sick, that’s when you would pass it on to people,” he added. The incubation period for Ebola lasts up to 21 days, but the woman will be kept in isolation for 30 days, Dasey said. If the woman does become ill with the disease, she will only receive “supportive care” because there is no known cure, he said (Avram Goldstein, Washington Post, Feb. 20). Back to top       Some U.S. Senate Ricin Investigators Consider New Theory Some investigators working to determine the origin of a small amount of ricin discovered earlier this month in the office of U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) have speculated that the discovered material may not be the toxin at all, NBC News reported Wednesday (see GSN, Feb. 10). So far, investigators have been unsuccessful in finding a letter that might have contained the ricin, which was discovered, mixed with paper dust, on a letter-opening machine in Frist’s mailroom. Some investigators are now interested in learning whether pulp made from the castor plant, also the source for ricin, is used in making envelopes. If so, that might explain how paper dust could test positive for ricin, NBC News reported. The FBI and the U.S. Capitol Police, however, have said that test results conducted on the material found on the letter-opening machine came back with several positive results for ricin alone (Pete Williams, NBC News, Feb. 18). Back to top

Taiwanese President Vows to Pursue Missile Defenses Regardless of Voter Sentiment Taiwan will continue with the planned purchases of U.S. missile interceptors regardless of the outcome of a missile defense referendum slated to be held next month, Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 15). The referendum, scheduled for March 20, poses two questions to Taiwanese voters — whether Taiwan should improve its missile defenses if China continues to threaten the island and whether Taiwan should seek to engage China in peace talks (Kathrin Hille, Financial Times, Feb. 19). Chen said yesterday, though, that regardless of the outcome of the referendum, Taiwan would continue with a planned $15 billion special budget that includes the purchase of Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missile interceptors. “Whether or not this referendum is passed will not affect our ongoing research. Likewise, ongoing arms purchase items listed under existing annual and special budget will go ahead,” he said (Reuters/Planet Ark, Feb. 20).   Back to top

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