Libyan representative to the IAEA Mohamed Matooq (left) and IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei signed Libya’s Additional Protocol to its nuclear safeguards agreement last Wednesday (AFP Photo/Johannes Kernmayer). Libya Paid $100 Million for Nuclear Technology; U.S. Displays Libyan Nuclear Equipment The Bush administration announced yesterday that Libya paid $100 million for nuclear technology from the international smuggling network createad by Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, the New York Times reported (see GSN, March 12)...Full Story

Panel to Speed U.S. First-Response Funding By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The United States yesterday announced the appointment of 20 top state and local officials to a new panel that will seek to speed the flow of federal terrorism- and WMD-response funds to local officials (see GSN, Feb. 23)...Full Story

Inspections Hindered Iraq’s WMD Efforts, Kay Says U.N. weapons inspections played a major role in preventing prewar Iraq from rebuilding its WMD programs, former chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq David Kay said in an interview with Arms Control Today released yesterday (see GSN, March 15)...Full Story

	Tuesday, March 16, 2004

Panel to Speed U.S. First-Response Funding By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The United States yesterday announced the appointment of 20 top state and local officials to a new panel that will seek to speed the flow of federal terrorism- and WMD-response funds to local officials (see GSN, Feb. 23). The creation of the panel, which is chaired by Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, followed months of squabbling between state and local officials over what U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge last month called a state-level “logjam” preventing federal funds from reaching community emergency responders. The U.S. Conference of Mayors said in a January survey that 76 percent of cities polled had received no money from the Homeland Security Department’s largest first-responder programs. Many state-government advocates have rejected blame for the problem, charging among other things that local officials have misunderstood the grant process. Romney adviser John Cohen, a homeland security expert who is the governor’s staff contact for the task force, said the funding problem is “extraordinarily complex” and that the group will not seek to assign blame for delays in the pipeline. “It is a flawed assumption to try to level blame on one party. What we’re finding is that there is a whole series of reasons why this money is not finding its way to where it needs to go. … It’s not accurate to say that the sole reason why this money has not gotten where it needs to go is because state governments have dropped the ball,” Cohen said today in an interview. Among reasons for funding delays, Cohen cited lengthy state procedures, including legislative involvement in grant allocation, and county and local procurement systems and administrative procedures. The task force, which has been meeting for about two weeks and is expected to issue recommendations to the department within two months, brings together governors, mayors, county executives and other officials in a bid to “examine the funding process and ensure that Department of Homeland Security funds move quickly to local first responders,” the department said in a press release. It said the group would address “impediments to the efficient and effective distribution of state and local homeland security funds.”  “The Department of Homeland Security shares the concerns of communities anticipating these funds. … The task force will put homeland security dollars into the hands of first responders more rapidly,” Ridge said yesterday. One official familiar with the task force’s work said the group was convened for political as well as policy reasons. “From the standpoint of the administration,” the source said, “they want to be able to demonstrate that they are getting this money out the door from their bank and getting it into the hands of local communities.” At the same time, the source said, opponents of the administration will cite the funding delays as an example of a flawed federal approach to homeland security. Back to top

Inspections Hindered Iraq’s WMD Efforts, Kay Says U.N. weapons inspections played a major role in preventing prewar Iraq from rebuilding its WMD programs, former chief U.S. weapons inspector in Iraq David Kay said in an interview with Arms Control Today released yesterday (see GSN, March 15). “I think in retrospect it is obvious that rigorous inspections and accompanying sanctions played an important role in limiting the possibilities of the Iraqis to restart their (prohibited weapons) program,” Kay said. He also said, though, that the combined use of inspections and sanctions may have had less of an effect on prewar Iraq’s to develop ballistic missiles that went beyond the U.N.-allowed range of 150 kilometers. “It was always a cat-and-mouse game throughout the UNSCOM [U.N. Special Commission on Iraq] years with the missiles: Were the missiles going to exceed a 150-mile range limitation or not, what was the payload, and all of that. I think that was, that was almost an inherent limitation that we had to live with regardless,” Kay said. While Iraq may have ultimately developed long-range advanced missiles if Operation Iraqi Freedom had not occurred, Kay said, Hussein’s regime would have still faced significant challenges in that effort. “My strong suspicion is that in fact they just weren’t technically capable of doing that, even with foreign assistance. It would have taken them longer.  They would eventually have gotten it, if the war hadn’t intervened, but their own technical chaos, the declining state of efficiency of all of their manufacturing areas just would make that very difficult even with foreign assistance,” he said. Kay said that Iraq failed to fully account for the destruction of weapons of mass destruction for several reasons, including that some stockpiles were “destroyed in ways the Iraqis were embarrassed to admit” and that some disappeared in the “normal chaos” that followed Iraq’s war with Iran during the 1980s and the 1991 Persian Gulf War. The final report prepared by the Iraq Survey Group, currently searching for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, will show that some WMD materials, including biological agents, were disposed of in a way harmful to the residents of Baghdad, Kay said. While agreeing with the need for long-term monitoring of postwar Iraq, Kay said such a task would be better handled by an Iraqi government itself and “some international body,” not by the U.S.-led coalition. In his interview with Arms Control Today, Kay criticized some senior Bush administration officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, for continuing to speculate that WMD stockpiles might still be found in Iraq. “I think people who hold out for a Hail-Mary pass … delay the inevitable: looking back at what went wrong.  I think we have enough evidence now to say the intelligence process, and the policy process that used that information, did not work at the level of effectiveness that we require in the age that we live in,” Kay said. He also criticized the U.S. military for failing to locate and secure suspect Iraqi WMD sites. “I do not think the U.S. military gave a very high priority to locating WMD. They gave the highest priority to WMD that might possibly be used against troops during the course of the war,” Kay said. “The longer-range issue of finding what was in the WMD, locating the infrastructure, and protecting it, was horrible,” he added (Arms Control Association release, March 15). Back to top       Bush Administration Convinced Itself of Iraqi WMD Stockpiles Despite Contrary Information, Blix Says Former chief U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq Hans Blix yesterday criticized the Bush administration for refusing to consider available information that indicated prewar Iraq did not possess weapons of mass destruction and for its claims that the invasion of Iraq has improved international security, according to the New York Times (see GSN, March 8). Blix is conducting a 10-day tour of the United States to promote his new book, Disarming Iraq, according to the Times. In an interview yesterday with NBC’s Today, he said the Bush administration decided prior to the war that former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s regime possessed weapons of mass destruction, despite evidence to the contrary. “They wanted to come to the conclusion that there were weapons,” Blix said. “Like the former days of the witch hunt, they are convinced that they exist, and if you see a black cat, well, that’s evidence of the witch,” he added. Blix also disputed the administration’s claims that deposing Hussein helped to improve international security. “Sorry to say it doesn’t look that way,” he said. “If the aim was to send a signal to terrorists that we are determined to take you on, that has not succeeded. In Iraq, it has bred a lot of terrorism and a lot of hatred to the Western world,” Blix added (Warren Hoge, New York Times, March 16). He also criticized the United States and the United Kingdom for claiming that the invasion of Iraq was based, in part, on Hussein’s years of refusing to abide by U.N. resolutions even as the rest of the U.N. Security Council failed to support military action. “The moral of this story was clearly a loss of credibility for the leaders of this war and that they didn’t think the council mattered, that was a mistake,” Blix said (Dafna Linzer, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, March 16). Back to top       INC Gave Inaccurate Iraqi WMD Information to Media The Iraqi National Congress, a former Iraqi opposition group that has been heavily criticized for providing inaccurate information on prewar Iraq’s WMD efforts to the Bush administration, also supplied misleading information to a number of international media organizations, Knight-Ridder reported today (see GSN, March 11). In a June 2002 letter to the Senate Appreciations Committee, the INC listed more than 100 articles published based on information provided by the group’s Information Collection Program, which is funded by the United States, according to Knight-Ridder.  While the INC helped to create an impression there were multiple sources of information on prewar Iraq’s WMD efforts, many of the allegations were made by a small group of defectors and were not confirmed by available intelligence, Knight-Ridder reported.  The articles based on INC-provided information made a number of allegations that so far have not been proven, including that former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had involvement in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, that Iraq had developed mobile biological facilities disguised as milk trucks and that Iraq could launch Scud ballistic missiles armed with weapons of mass destruction at Israel. The INC letter also listed the international publications where the 108 articles appeared, including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the London Times, the Atlantic Monthly and the Sunday Age of Melbourne, Australia, Knight-Ridder reported (Landay/Wells, Knight-Ridder/MENAFN.com, March 16). 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Libya Paid $100 Million for Nuclear Technology; U.S. Displays Libyan Nuclear Equipment The Bush administration announced yesterday that Libya paid $100 million for nuclear technology from the international smuggling network createad by Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, the New York Times reported (see GSN, March 12). “The network’s financial dealings were deliberately complex and we do not yet have a complete picture,” said Tim Wilkinson, a deputy national security adviser. “The developing picture, however, indicates that the Khan network received at least $100 million for supplying technology, equipment and know-how [to Libya]. It was truly one-stop shopping,” he added. The previous estimate of what Libya had paid to start up its nuclear weapons program was less than $50 million, according to the New York Times. The new $100 million estimate does not include what Iran, North Korea or other Khan customers paid for their nuclear contraband (Sanger/Broad, New York Times, March 16). Meanwhile, the Bush administration yesterday displayed some of the 55,000 pounds of equipment and materials recovered from Libya’s nuclear weapons program, CNN.com reported. The displayed equipment, part of an initial shipment of Libyan WMD-related materials sent to the United States in January, included a dozen of the aluminum casings that would have enclosed uranium enrichment centrifuges, CNN.com reported. The United States recovered about 4,000 such centrifuges from Libya, which was ultimately seeking about 10,000 of the machines — enough to produce enough weapon-grade material each year to develop several nuclear warheads, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said. The nuclear equipment is being stored at the Energy Department’s Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tenn. A 500-ton second shipment of Libyan WMD-related materials, reportedly including the remainder of its nuclear weapons program, is expected to reach a North Carolina port later this month, CNN.com reported (CNN.com, March 15). Abraham yesterday said the dismantlement of Libya’s nuclear weapons program made the world a safer place. “The United States and the nations of the civilized world are safer as a result of these efforts to secure and remove Libya’s nuclear materials,” Abraham declared. “Libya itself is safer, too … and has moved toward improved relations with the United States and the United Kingdom,” he added (Erika Pontarelli, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 16). Back to top       Powell Calls for End to Black Market Nuclear Network On the eve of a visit to Pakistan, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell today called for the complete dismantlement of the international nuclear network revealed by top Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, (see GSN, March 15). Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is as “determined as we are” to prevent nuclear proliferation, said Powell, who is set to travel tomorrow to Pakistan. “But we can’t be satisfied until the entire network is gone, branch and root,” he said during a visit to India. Powell praised Pakistan’s cooperation in investigating the network revealed by Khan, who has reportedly confessed to providing nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. “We are pleased that we are getting a great deal of information from Pakistani authorities as a result of their interrogation of Dr. Khan and his associates. We are pleased that this network is being broken up,” Powell said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 16). He also said yesterday that he would discuss with Musharraf whether any current or former Pakistani officials were involved in such transfers. “I will be seeking to learn from President Musharraf and the others I speak with what else they may have learned about the network that I have not yet been made aware of through normal intelligence channels,” Powell said. “Certainly, I’ll be interested to see whether there’s any involvement of past officials or any official involvement in any of this over the years,” he added. During his trip to Pakistan, Powell is also expected to discuss Islamabad’s long-held interest in purchasing U.S. F-16 fighter aircraft and Pakistan and India’s efforts to conduct a peace dialogue, according to the Los Angeles Times (T. Christian Miller, Los Angeles Times, March 16). Back to top

Bush Administration Seeks Capability to Vaccinate 25 Million With New Anthrax Vaccine The U.S. Health and Human Services Department last week opened bidding for contracts to develop a stockpile of a new anthrax vaccine capable of inoculating 25 million people, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, March 9). The new vaccine, developed by federal scientists, would have fewer side effects and require about half as many injections as the current anthrax vaccine, according to the AP. Two companies — the U.S.-based VaxGen and the United Kingdom-based Avecia — have received initial contracts to produce a small amount of the new vaccine to conduct human safety tests. While any interested company can bid on the remaining vaccine production, the early involvement of VaxGen and Avecia will make them prime candidates for the new contracts, AP reported (Associated Press, March 12). The most likely use of the new vaccine would be to inoculate the entire population of a city after an anthrax attack, to provide long-term protection against lingering anthrax spores, according to experts. Preventive vaccinations may be considered for some high-risk occupational groups, such as hazardous material teams and postal workers, said National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci. The U.S. Defense Department has not publicly commented on using the new vaccine, but experts said the Pentagon is likely do so once it is licensed by the Food and Drug Administration, which could occur as early as 2006 (Justin Gillis, Washington Post, March 12). Back to top

SBIRS-High Cost Estimate Skyrockets The U.S. Air Force is again increasing cost estimates for the Pentagon’s next-generation missile early warning system, the Space-Based Infrared System High program, Defense Daily reported today (see GSN, March 2). The Air Force is expected to present the updated cost estimate in April, according to a spokesman at the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) at Los Angeles Air Force Base. The current SBIRS-High cost estimate is $8.6 billion. The center said the price increase is not expected to again breach the Nunn-McCurdy Amendment, which requires congressional certification for a program exceeding 25 percent of its original estimated cost. “At this time, the (system program office) does not believe that cost growth associated with recent (payload) technical issues will result in another Nunn-McCurdy congressional notification or certification,” Air Force officials said last week (Amy Butler, Defense Daily, March 16).   Back to top       NATO, Russia Hold First Joint Missile Defense Exercises NATO has completed its first joint theater missile defense exercises with Russia, Jane’s Defense Weekly reported this week (see GSN, March 10). The five-day exercise, held last week at the U.S. Joint National Integration Center in Colorado Springs, was a computer-assisted, real-time program focusing on the NATO-Russia theater missile defense. Its purpose was to test an experimental operations concept developed by the NATO-Russia TMD Ad Hoc Working Group. “Together with a joint interoperability study being conducted concurrently under the lead of the NATO Command, Consultation and Communications Agency, the exercise is expected to provide the basis for future interoperability enhancements as well as for a more robust NRC TMD exercise foreseen for 2005,” NATO said in a statement. Missile defense has long been considered one of the few strategic capacities where Russia could provide added value to NATO, according to Jane’s Defense Weekly. Missile defense cooperation between Russia and the alliance began in the mid-1990s but was suspended in 1999 at the start of the NATO-led operation in Kosovo (Luke Hill, Jane’s Defense Weekly, March 17). Back to top       Cruise Missile Defense Plan Due in April The top civilian leadership of the U.S. armed forces is set to complete a cruise missile defense implementation and funding plan by the end of April, as part of the Defense Department’s first-ever Strategic Planning Guidance, Inside Defense reported (see GSN, Feb. 10). A draft version of the Strategic Planning Guidance task list, obtained by Inside the Pentagon, lists numerous Pentagon studies and their due dates, which will guide fiscal 2006 budgets for the armed services. The service secretaries are also expected to complete a homeland defense strategy by the end of June, and are participating in coordinating a joint integrated air and missile defense plan expected by January 2005 (Keith Costa, Inside Defense, March 15).     Back to top

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