Former chief U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq Hans Blix (shown here accepting an award from the Association for the United Nations of Spain last week) is currently touring the United States to promote his new book on the efforts to disarm Iraq (AFP photo/Cesar Rangel). Blix Says Iraq War Could Have Been Averted By Jim Wurst Global Security Newswire UNITED NATIONS — On the first anniversary of the withdrawal of weapons inspectors from Iraq, Hans Blix, the former chief U.N. weapons inspector, said yesterday that the war was not “predetermined” but could have been avoided if the United States thought more critically about its evidence of weapons of mass destruction, if inspections had continued or if Iraq had cooperated better with the United Nations (see GSN, March 16)...Full Story

Libya Insulted by U.S. Display of Recovered Nuclear Materials, Official Says Libya was offended by the U.S. display earlier this week of equipment recovered from Tripoli’s former nuclear program, an official close to the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday (see GSN, March 16)...Full Story

Computer Retailers Seek to Avoid WMD-Related Sales By Chris Schneidmiller Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Although sales of high-powered, U.S.-built computers are subject to U.S. export control laws, two U.S. computer retailers are taking additional steps to prevent their less-powerful products from falling into the wrong hands (see GSN, Oct. 24, 2003)...Full Story

	Wednesday, March 17, 2004

Cargo Shippers Work to Meet Antiterrorism Deadline A looming deadline for compliance with a worldwide maritime antiterrorism law is creating uncertainty in world shipping, said industry insiders, Singapore’s Business Week reported today (see GSN, March 12). The International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code, the new security regulations of the International Maritime Organization, was adopted by the United Nations in December 2002 in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The rules require all ships to be security-certified by July 1, or risk being barred from many ports of call. To become certified, ships and ports must train staff on security measures, and prepare plans to respond to terrorist attacks. The rush to beat the deadline is creating dangerous loopholes, said Bruce Underwood, director of the maritime security and ship tracking systems firm Meridian SSAS Pte. Some ship owners are seeking “easy certification,” he said. “How rigorous are the certification of crew and vessels with flags of convenience?” Underwood said. He also said the code does not provide governments with guidelines for meeting its requirements. “The ISPS … is a very comprehensive vision paper,” Underwood said. “But it does not provide a roadmap on how to achieve the objectives,” he added. Another difficulty for many countries is that the United States is expected to strictly enforce the code, and U.S. ports remain the most important for many vessels. “Make no mistake — America will enforce the security rules for all ships who seek to enter her waters and harbors,” Underwood said. Noncompliance with the code could lead to serious economic consequences. For example, turning oil tankers away at U.S. ports could lead to an artificial oil shortage and drive up world oil prices, according to Business Week (Ven Sreenivasan, Business Week, March 17). Back to top

Blix Says Iraq War Could Have Been Averted By Jim Wurst Global Security Newswire UNITED NATIONS — On the first anniversary of the withdrawal of weapons inspectors from Iraq, Hans Blix, the former chief U.N. weapons inspector, said yesterday that the war was not “predetermined” but could have been avoided if the United States thought more critically about its evidence of weapons of mass destruction, if inspections had continued or if Iraq had cooperated better with the United Nations (see GSN, March 16). Blix, the former executive chairman of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), said at a news conference, “I don’t think it was predetermined even into the last days of the buildup.” While numerous media accounts have reported that U.S. President George W. Bush had settled on war by the summer of 2002, “I don’t think that really says that the war is predetermined; preplanned, yes, but predetermined, no,” said Blix. War could have been averted if Iraq cooperated more, he added, but once the armed forces on Iraq’s borders exceeded 200,000 troops, “I think it would be very hard to do anything else but to go in unless they had very spectacular progress” on inspections. Blix added, “I have never accused (Bush or British Prime Minister Tony Blair) of bad faith. Misleading, yes, deceptive, no.” “There was a lot of spin,” he said, “meant to convey a more ominous picture than it was.” Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was not a threat to the world or his neighbors, he said, but “he was a horror to his own people and that was the reality. The spin wanted to make him an immediate threat to the rest of the world, that was an oversell.” Blix, who retired as the head of UNMOVIC in June 2003, was at the United Nations promoting his new book, Disarming Iraq. He said that in December 2002, after the inspections had resumed, he thought there were weapons of mass destruction remaining in Iraq, but when his inspectors visited sites named by intelligence agencies “and we did not find any weapons of mass destruction in the place intelligence agencies thought were the best, that was when we began to be more skeptical about the evidence.” In contrast, U.S. officials “had a conviction that was very faith-based and was erroneous; we had preserved more of a critical thinking and that brought us closer to reality,” he added. It is possible that all the weapons had been destroyed in the early 1990s as the Iraqis claimed, he said, since no undeclared weapons of mass destruction were found after 1994. However, he said, “with the attitude of the Iraqis I could not have gone in good conscience to the Security Council and say I am convinced that they destroyed them.” While you can’t prove a negative, Blix said, “You can try to make it plausible.” “The fact is that they did not cooperate very well and that kept the suspicion strongly alive that what was unaccounted for might have existed,” he said. On the other hand, “the U.S. and U.K. had a tendency from time to time to say that if it is unaccounted for it exists and that is not admissible,” Blix added. If UNMOVIC had more time “going to all the sites that we were given by intelligence agencies and having found nothing there, the intelligence agencies themselves would have become skeptical,” said Blix. On March 17, 2003, the UNMOVIC inspectors — as well as all other U.N. staff members — were ordered out of Iraq. The U.S.-led force invaded Iraq on March 20 with the White House spokesman announcing, “The opening stages of the disarmament of the Iraqi regime have begun.” While he was willing to give the United States and United Kingdom the benefit of the doubt on the overall controversy, on the question of nuclear weapons, Blix said, “Clearly there was a hyping, there was an exaggeration of the nuclear threat.” After the 1991 war, “there is no infrastructure left by which they could use enriched uranium (for nuclear weapons), but there were questions left” about Iraq’s intentions, he added. By 1998, the International Atomic Energy Agency was certain that nothing of the nuclear weapons program still existed and the program was not reconstructed during the four years inspectors were barred from Iraq. Yet the nuclear threat was always a key argument in the case for pre-emptive war. Four days before the invasion, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said Iraq “has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons.” Washington and London “really pressed on that issue and conjured up a suspicion that there was something nuclear,” Blix said. The U.S. search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction has turned up none, although Bush said in his State of the Union address in January that there are “dozens of weapons of mass destruction-related program activities.” “We have seen how much evidence has crumbled in the past year,” Blix said. “If anyone maintains there are programs then I would like to see evidence of that.” Back to top       Computer Retailers Seek to Avoid WMD-Related Sales By Chris Schneidmiller Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Although sales of high-powered, U.S.-built computers are subject to U.S. export control laws, two U.S. computer retailers are taking additional steps to prevent their less-powerful products from falling into the wrong hands (see GSN, Oct. 24, 2003). Computer makers Dell and Sun Microsystems include language in their online terms of sale designed — in theory at least — to block their products from being used to develop weapons of mass destruction. Shoppers on Dell’s U.S. Web site are asked several questions if they indicate their purchase will be shipped outside the United States. After listing the recipient’s name and country of residence — from Albania to Zimbabwe — they must answer this: “Will the product be used in connection with weapons of mass destruction, i.e. nuclear applications, missile technology, or chemical or biological weapons purposes?” An affirmative answer would not necessarily quash the sale, but it would probably mean the buyer would have to talk to a Dell representative seeking further information on the computer’s final destination, its user and the purpose of the purchase, company spokesman Bryant Hilton said yesterday. Sales to U.S. agencies involved in WMD work would probably be allowed, but sales to “axis of evil” countries would definitely not be. “A lot of what you see is regulated by law, and it’s our attempt to comply with U.S. export laws,” Hilton said. Only a “small, small percentage” of orders need this heightened attention from the Texas company, he said. “I think it’s a good sign, that they’re cognizant of the fact that their computers could be used for the development of weapons of mass destruction,” said Michael Powers, a senior fellow with the Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute. Powers said, though, that the legal language is unlikely to deter terrorists or others who want to use the companies’ computers to develop weapons of mass destruction. More useful would be creating “watch lists” of people who might buy the computers with questionable intent, Powers said, adding that he doubted law-enforcement agencies would willingly share that information. It is the job of government, not business, to decide what exported items could be security risks for the United States, said William Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council. The government maintains watch over these items through export controls, licensing and checks on potential buyers, he said. While personal computers could be used in developing nuclear weapons, the administration “isn’t spending a lot of time these days trying to track down misuse of PCs,” Reinsch said. “PCs are out of the box. The Chinese make PCs,” he said. U.S. law bars the sale of goods to restricted countries or to users engaged in “activities related to the design, development, production or use” of missiles and nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, according to Dell’s U.S. terms of sale. Iran, Iraq and North Korea are among the countries that may not receive Dell computers.  The terms for the company’s British Web site are even more stark: “Product may not be sold, leased or transferred to restricted/embargoed end users or countries or for a user involved in weapons of mass destruction or genocide without the prior consent of the U.S. or competent EU government.” Terms of sale are standard for retailers, all of whom must comply with U.S. export laws. An online search of other computer manufacturers, though, found that only Sun Microsystems had anything approaching the detail included in Dell’s policies. The California company and its customers agree to abide by all U.S. export laws and not to “use or provide products, services, technology, materials, tools, and technical data” for use on weapons of mass destruction. Details of the WMD-oriented sales language were noted in February by ZDNet UK, a British technology news Web site. Such documentation pales in importance to the need for stronger oversight on the final destinations of the most advanced computers that are of the most use in developing weapons of mass destruction, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “I would say that it is mainly to protect companies like Sun and Dell from responsibility regulating end-user uses of their systems,” Kimball said. Terms of sale details are just one part of Dell’s efforts to block misuse of its products, Hilton said. “I think it’s a protection,” he said. “It’s not the only protection we have in place.” Back to top       Reduction in Terrorism, Other Countries’ Example Led Libya to Abandon WMD Programs, Sources Say Several factors contributed to Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi’s decision last year to dismantle and abandon his WMD efforts, including a reduction of international terrorist activity, Insight Magazine reported Monday (see GSN, March 11). One factor, according to an adviser to Qadhafi, was the realization that Libya’s security would be improved by dismantling its nuclear weapons program. The adviser said he told Qadhafi that Libya lacked the missiles needed to employ nuclear weapons, even if they had been developed. “We had no delivery system,” the adviser said. “I told the guide, ‘If Libya were to start a nuclear war, our missiles won’t even reach Malta. If the U.S. starts it, Libya will be erased from the map,’” the adviser said. Qadhafi also learned from the example of Ukraine, one of three countries that voluntarily surrendered the nuclear arsenal it inherited after the fall of the Soviet Union, according to Insight. A month before Qadhafi’s announcement last year that he would abandon his WMD efforts, he met with Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma. “During their private meeting, Qadhafi asked Kuchma how America had treated him when he gave up his nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union,” said U.S. Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), who learned the story from Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Hryshchenko, according to Insight. The capture of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein by U.S. forces in early December 2003 also had an effect on Qadhafi, according to sources. Until then, “we were still negotiating. Both sides were sparring back and forth,” said a British official who was involved in the talks last year to dismantle Libya’s WMD programs. “Things radically changed course after that,” the British official said (Kenneth Timmerman, Insight Magazine I, March 15). Qadhafi also determined that Libya had suffered too much isolation and a lack of economic development due to its support of international terrorist organizations, according to sources. During a speech in Tripoli attended by a U.S. congressional delegation, Qadhafi said that many of the groups that Libya had supported, such as the Irish Republican Army and the Palestinian Liberation Organization, had made peace with their former adversaries. “Are we more Irish than the Irish?” Qadhafi said during his speech, according to Insight. “Are we more Palestinian than the Palestinians? … How can (Yasser Arafat) enter the White House and we not improve our relations with the United States?” he added (Kenneth Timmerman, Insight Magazine II, March 15). Back to top       Japan to Train ASEAN Nations in Nonproliferation Japan announced Saturday that it would conduct nonproliferation training in late May for members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported yesterday (see GSN, March 1). The Japanese Foreign Ministry, Coast Guard and other agencies would conduct the training, which comes amidst the ongoing dispute over North Korea’s alleged nuclear weapons program, according to the Yomiuri. Japanese officials said the training would focus on nonproliferation of materials and technology related to weapons of mass destruction in Asia (Yomiuri Shimbun, March 16). Back to top

Libya Insulted by U.S. Display of Recovered Nuclear Materials, Official Says Libya was offended by the U.S. display earlier this week of equipment recovered from Tripoli’s former nuclear program, an official close to the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday (see GSN, March 16). “Libya was quite unhappy with this dog-and-pony show because it hurts them domestically (and) in the Arab world,” the senior official said. “It looks like unilateral U.S. disarmament of Libya and Libya wants it recognized as disarmament under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and IAEA auspices,” the official added (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters/Yahoo!News, March 17). The United States yesterday, though, defended the display. “This is not a design to embarrass anyone.  It was simply designed to demonstrate the kind of materials that are involved here.  And anybody who sort of thinks that this is sending a message of seeking to cow anyone is really misreading it,” U.S. State Department deputy spokesman Adam Ereli said. “As I said before, this is a very cooperative process, and it is a process that is being led by, initiated by, and supported by Libya and the international community,” he added (U.S. State Department release, March 16). Back to top       U.S. Energy Department Watchdog Criticizes Security Training at U.S. Nuclear Weapons Sites U.S. nuclear weapons facilities have eliminated or reduced training for their security forces, leading to concerns that the sites may not be adequately defended against a terrorist attack, according to a report released last week by the U.S. Energy Department’s Inspector General Office (see GSN, Jan. 27). The Energy Department’s watchdog reviewed security training at 12 sites associated with the U.S. nuclear weapons complex, including the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Nevada Test Site, and found that 10 facilities had “eliminated or substantially modified” at least two blocks of instruction, according to the report. It also says that instruction at one site had been reduced by about 40 percent from the required 320 hours of training. At seven sites, training techniques characterized by some experts as critical, such as hand-to-hand combat and vehicle assaults, were modified by reducing their intensity or delivery method. Officials at some reviewed sites found that tactical skills were only taught in the classroom or at a limited force level, according to the report. Both the Energy Department and contractors indicated that site managers were concerned about the connection between the number of injuries suffered during security training and a contractor’s evaluation and subsequent fee determination, the report says. “At some sites instructors were specifically told to limit force used during training to avoid injuries,” it says. The report warns that “inconsistent” security training methods raise the risks of a lowered ability to fend off possible attacks or the potential use of excessive force during a security incident. “Defensive tactics training should be as realistic as possible. Anything less may rob the trainee of the exposure to the level of force, panic and confusion that are usually present during an actual attack and increase the possibility of an inappropriate response in high stress situations,” the report says (U.S. Energy Department release, March 12). Back to top       Russian Submarine Tests Ballistic Missile The Russian submarine Novomoskovsk has successfully tested an SS-N-23 sea-launched ballistic missile, Interfax reported today (see GSN, March 1; Interfax, March 17). Launched from the Barents Sea, the missile’s warhead struck Russia’s Kura testing ground in Kamchatka, according to Russian navy spokesman Capt. Igor Dygalo (ITAR-Tass, March 17). Last month, the navy experienced three missile mishaps, including the failure of the Novomoskovsk to launch two SS-N-23s (see GSN, Feb. 18). Russian President Vladimir Putin witnessed the nonlaunches from a nearby submarine and reportedly ordered more tests (Greg Webb, GSN, March 17). Back to top       ElBaradei and Tenet Discuss Nuclear Smuggling International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei and CIA Director George Tenet discussed new measures to prevent nuclear smuggling during a meeting yesterday, an IAEA spokeswoman said (see GSN, March 15). The meeting was “related to the need to discuss ways and means to curb the nuclear black market and trafficking in nuclear materials and parts,” agency spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said. Last month, ElBaradei called on countries to provide the agency with more intelligence information, according to Agence France-Presse. He is scheduled to meet today with U.S. President George W. Bush (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/ChannelNewsAsia.com, March 17). Back to top

Activists Slam Russian Chemical Weapons Disposal Russian environmental and human rights activists yesterday criticized Moscow’s efforts to dispose of the country’s vast stockpiles of chemical weapons, according to the Associated Press. The activists charged that chemical weapons destruction laws are insufficient by international standards and that Russian officials violate the laws that do exist, AP reported (see GSN, March 11). Russia is also failing to provide adequate security and safety for its work, critics said. “The entire state machine is deliberately violating all possible laws, regulations and procedures for disposing of chemical weapons,” said Lev Fyodorov, head of the environmental group For Chemical Safety (Associated Press/Moscow Times, March 17). Back to top       Firm to Sell Army Chemical Decontamination Enzyme A U.S. biotechnology company and a U.S. Army chemical and biological center have agreed to an exclusive deal for the manufacture and sale of a decontamination enzyme for chemical nerve agents like sarin, Drug Week reported (see GSN, March 5). Genencor International and the U.S. Army Edgewood Chemical Biological Center (ECBC) signed an exclusive license for the enzyme, which can be added to water and dispensed in foams, sprays and detergents. The noncorrosive, environmentally friendly substance is said to neutralize chemical agents. “By licensing to Genencor our enzymatic decontamination system for commercial production and sale, this breakthrough technology will become available as an environmentally sound, cost-effective option for a range of military and civilian application,” said ECBC Technical Director Joseph Zarzycki. The company expects to have the product available to military and civilian first responders between April and June (Drug Week, March 19). Back to top

Canadian Firms Want Antimissile Contracts Canadian defense contractors met yesterday with U.S. military officials in Ottawa in hopes of landing contracts for work on U.S. missile defense projects, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported (see GSN, March 12). “It’s an area where Canadian industry has been very successful in the past, supporting U.S. military programs, and hopefully if the Canadian government decides to participate in ballistic missile defense, that will help lever Canadian industrial participation in the program,” said Ron Kane, vice president of the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada. While some tests of the developing system have failed, according to U.S. Air Force Col. Jose Boluda, the system would one day protect the United States and its allies against missile attacks. “We are pushing the envelope,” Boluda said. “This is a very challenging program. We’re learning every day,” he added. Canada is still in discussions with the United States about participating in the missile defense system. Canadian defense firms say that, while a decision by Ottawa to join the program would help them win contracts, they expect to remain eligible to bid regardless of Canada’s decision. “Obviously, if Canada were to become involved, from a national point of view, I think that would create a more favorable climate,” said Norbert Cyr, spokesman for the Canadian Defense Industries Association (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, March 17). Back to top       Antimissile War Game Stops Mock Attack by “Midland” An simulated antimissile system, modeled after the U.S. system now under development, successfully repelled six ballistic missiles launched at the United States in a U.S. Air Force war game yesterday, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, March 11). At Schriever Air Force Base in Colorado, the Air Force demonstrated for journalists a scenario in which a fictitious nation in the Sea of Japan, dubbed “Midland,” fires all six of its missiles at the United States.  Base officials said one of the reasons for the exercise was to demonstrate the short time frame involved in missile defense, which leads to fast-paced activity and stress on participants. “It’s what war gamers call ‘organized chaos,’” said Schriever spokesman Robert McKinney. A missile launched from North Korea, on which Midland is modeled, according to the Washington Post, could reach the northwestern United States in approximately 30 minutes. Air Force officials said the process of launch detection, trajectory determination and interceptor course computation could take about eight minutes. Thomas Christie, the Pentagon’s chief weapons evaluator, recently questioned the value of such simulations (see GSN, March 12). Officials at Schriever defended the models’ accuracy, noting the success of a number of previous tests. Tension in Tuesday’s mock launch hit the high point, according to the Washington Post, when two interceptors were in the air against two remaining incoming missiles. One was headed toward Anchorage and one toward Boise. That left only one interceptor that could be fired. If the interceptors missed the missiles, officials could have attempted to save only one of the cities. After the Anchorage-bound missile was destroyed, the final interceptor was fired at the Boise-bound missile. But that proved unnecessary when the initial interceptor made contact. Were a real-life choice of this kind necessary, officials said issues such as population size would be a factor (Bradley Graham, Washington Post, March 17).   Back to top

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