International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei (right) met yesterday with U.S. Representatives Henry Hyde (R-Ill.) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) (AFP photo/Luke Frazza). IAEA Chief Says Board Losing Patience With Iran By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors are becoming impatient with Iran after a series of discoveries cast doubt on the country’s claims that it is coming clean about its long-hidden nuclear programs, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said yesterday (see GSN, March 15)...Full Story

U.S. Nonproliferation Efforts Insufficient, Experts Say By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The Bush administration’s recent nonproliferation proposals are insufficient for curbing the global spread of nuclear weapons technology, experts said this week (see GSN, Feb. 12)...Full Story

Al-Qaeda Looking to Use Ships in Attacks, Analyst Says Al-Qaeda could attempt to attempt to attack a port city using a weapon of mass destruction carried by ship, a defense analyst said yesterday (see GSN, March 17)...Full Story

	Thursday, March 18, 2004

Al-Qaeda Looking to Use Ships in Attacks, Analyst Says Al-Qaeda could attempt to attempt to attack a port city using a weapon of mass destruction carried by ship, a defense analyst said yesterday (see GSN, March 17). “The al-Qaeda network has serious maritime terrorism plans,” said Michael Richardson, a senior researcher at Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Al-Qaeda could seek to exploit gaps in shipping companies’ crew selection processes to plant operatives on cargo ships to eventually capture them, Richardson said. He warned that possible targets for such a maritime attack, possibly involving a weapon of mass destruction hidden within a cargo container, could be any of the world’s top 40 port cities or international shipping straits and canals. “Sooner or later, al-Qaeda or one of its affiliates will make and detonate a radiological bomb, whether it’s in a ship or a shipping container,” Richardson said. Singapore is at serious risk for such an attack, said Tony Tan, the nation’s coordinating security minister (D’arcy Doran, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, March 18). Back to top

U.S. Congressman Urges Tighter U.S. Technology Export Controls By Amy Klamper Congress Daily WASHINGTON — U.S. House Armed Services Chairman Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) yesterday called for stronger arms export controls to curb the spread of technologies that can be used by terrorists to develop weapons of mass destruction. Hunter said the United States faces “monumental challenges” in denying U.S. adversaries the technology needed to develop such capabilities. During a committee hearing yesterday, Hunter highlighted the need for a successor to the Cold-War era Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls to be directed at terrorist states. COCOM, a regime that controlled the shipment of dual-use technologies to Warsaw Pact states, was dismantled in 1994 under pressure from major U.S. trading partners. A number of smaller multilateral arms export regimes have since replaced it, including the 1996 Wassenaar Arrangement, but Hunter and other critics say these pacts lack teeth (see GSN, Dec. 17, 2003). “We really haven’t established a successor to deal with this area of terrorists,” Hunter told a panel of counterproliferation experts who testified before the committee. Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, agreed that the world needs an export control system specifically aimed at the new threat (see related GSN story, today).  “If we stick to the regimes we have now, they only affect what the good guys are doing, they don’t get to the problem points in the world,” Milhollin said. He pointed to the “amazing nuclear smuggling network” that supplied the means to make enriched uranium to Iran, Libya and North Korea for more than a decade. “Our failure to stop it or detect it should be considered as a great national security disaster,” Milhollin said, adding that participants in this black market operate outside the worldwide export control system. “The network was overseen by a Pakistani, it was operated from Dubai, and it ordered parts to be made in Malaysia,” Milhollin said. “None of these countries belong to the world’s export control regimes,” he said. Larry Wortzel, director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation, said an alliance-based multilateral regime such as COCOM might not be broad enough to take on the challenge posed by arms-smuggling terrorists, but said “the place to start is with your allies.” Hunter asserted the need for a “war-on-terrorism counterproliferation regime” to address the new threat, an idea supported by Ashton Carter, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. Carter saw the need for a “counterproliferation effort that is as vigorous in parallel to our counterterrorism effort” in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. Carter called for better intelligence on weapons of mass destruction and stronger enforcement of export controls by all countries. “The issue is whether the governments concerned have laws on the books and the incentive to mount the enforcement and intelligence effort required to make sure the laws are abided by,” Carter said. He also called for the expansion of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which provides U.S. funding to dismantle and dispose of weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems in the former Soviet Union, and more Defense and Homeland Security department resources dedicated to counterproliferation efforts. Back to top       United States Nears Implementing Syria Sanctions The Bush administration moved closer this week to imposing sanctions against Syria, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, March 12). A White House interagency group met Tuesday and yesterday to discuss what sanctions in the Syria Accountability Act to impose against Damascus. The law bans U.S. exports of military and dual-use items to Syria and requires the president to impose at least two additional sanctions from a list of six economic and diplomatic measures if Syria fails to end its suspected WMD programs and official support for terrorism. “Expect a decision soon,” U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said yesterday (Sands/Behn, Washington Times, March 18). In a radio interview yesterday, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said the Bush administration plans to impose strong sanctions on Syria as called for in the act. “There is not a question of sanctions; there will be sanctions and there will be very firm sanctions very soon,” he said. Armitage also warned Syrian President Bashar Assad that “he’s at a fork in the road” with respect to Syria’s support for terrorist groups. Assad “can either go and have a fine life or he can be further isolated and be the only Baath Party left in the region,” Armitage said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 17). Back to top

IAEA Chief Says Board Losing Patience With Iran By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors are becoming impatient with Iran after a series of discoveries cast doubt on the country’s claims that it is coming clean about its long-hidden nuclear programs, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said yesterday (see GSN, March 15). ElBaradei stressed progress made in Iran by the agency, and refused to speculate about what actions the board could take at its June meeting if Iran is again found to have failed to reveal key aspects of its nuclear activity. On Saturday, the board adopted a resolution that was critical of Iran’s lack of candor but deferred further action until June. “June is an important date.   By that time, we will have been working in Iran for almost two years, and people are getting somewhat impatient that the process is being dragged out,” ElBaradei told reporters shortly after meeting with President George W. Bush and national security adviser Condoleezza Rice. “We are not concluding one way or another,” said ElBaradei, who leaves Washington tomorrow after four days of meetings. ElBaradei refused to say whether he brought a message from Iran to the White House, but he expressed support for direct talks between Washington and Tehran on nuclear matters. “I think it is clearly an idea which they [U.S. officials] have to mull … over,” he said. While U.S. negotiators pressed for a harder line than was ultimately conveyed in Saturday’s IAEA resolution, ElBaradei said Bush expressed satisfaction with the statement. “He said that they [U.S. officials] were pleased because there was a powerful message sent to Iran,” ElBaradei said. As the IAEA board finalized details of its resolution, Iran announced it was barring an imminent visit by IAEA inspectors. Top Iranian officials have since said the visit can take place later this month, a move that President Mohammad Khatami confirmed yesterday. U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said Tuesday that by delaying the visit, Iran has demonstrated “a continuation of a pattern of delay and deception and denial.” ElBaradei also discussed with U.S. officials the state of U.S.-IAEA cooperation on Libya’s recently revealed nuclear programs, which the agency and the United States have begun dismantling. Much of the Libyan nuclear material has been brought to the United States under IAEA seal. An official close to the agency reportedly said this week that the administration’s display Monday of some Libyan nuclear materials at a facility in Tennessee created an impression of “unilateral U.S. disarmament of Libya” and that Libya objected to the maneuver (see GSN, March 17). The director general said the agency and Washington must work together on the project while defending their respective prerogatives regarding the material. “We made it clear that our equity is non-negotiable and we will respect their equity. … We can’t afford but to work together,” ElBaradei said. The IAEA head expressed hope that progress in Libya can serve as a steppingstone toward peace and disarmament in the region. He voiced hope for a WMD-free zone in the Middle East and a broad reassessment of the security of countries in the region. “In the Middle East, we will need a dialogue on security structure, and that could be part of the peace process. … Libya … should be the beginning of a process in the Middle East,” said ElBaradei, an Egyptian. ElBaradei said new IAEA inspections in North Korea, whose nuclear programs will next be discussed in June by countries involved in the six-nation talks, would have to be “comprehensive.” “The system that we had before [the 1994 U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework] was completely inadequate [and] gave the North Koreans a green light to delay giving us full-fledged inspections,” ElBaradei said. “We know that they [the North Koreans] have the capability if not the bomb already,” he added. ElBaradei said his U.S. interlocutors agreed that the existing international nonproliferation regime needs an update. “We have to think outside the box,” he said (see GSN, Jan. 7). In recent months, the IAEA head has proposed a series of measures to strengthen the regime. Some of the recommendations dovetail with U.S. goals such as universal adherence to an IAEA protocol that allows the agency’s inspectors a freer hand in signatory countries. Other proposals, including ElBaradei’s repeated call on nuclear weapon states to renew their commitment to disarmament, imply criticism of Washington. ElBaradei said yesterday that the reform proposals were a major focus of his meetings with U.S. officials. In particular, he said he stressed the need to better protect existing fissionable materials, particularly in the former Soviet Union; to tighten international controls on exports and imports of nuclear materials; and to bring sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle under international control. “Maybe we should find a way to apply a moratorium in exchange for assurances on supply,” the director general said. Back to top       U.S. Nonproliferation Efforts Insufficient, Experts Say By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The Bush administration’s recent nonproliferation proposals are insufficient for curbing the global spread of nuclear weapons technology, experts said this week (see GSN, Feb. 12). The proposals fail to address a major weakness in international controls that has permitted dangerous proliferation to occur legally, and could face a first major test with an anticipated deal for China to sell Pakistan a nuclear power reactor, according to the experts (see GSN, Nov. 5, 2003). In a Feb. 11 speech, Bush proposed seven new initiatives for countering nuclear proliferation, on top of the numerous arms control, nonproliferation and counterproliferation initiatives the United States has pursued for years. “The president’s proposals are all good as far as they go, but I don’t think they will stop the kind of nuclear black market we have just read about in the newspapers,” said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, referring to a recently disrupted nuclear smuggling network involving former top Pakistani nuclear weapons program official Abdul Qadeer Khan (see GSN, March 16). The Bush plan “would not stop the sale of centrifuge parts to Iran or Libya or Syria from places like Malaysia or Dubai, or a number of other places,” Milhollin said in testimony yesterday before the House Armed Services Committee. A Major Loophole Milhollin said that Bush’s proposals focused on modifying the behavior of countries that generally adhere to international restrictions, whereas the Pakistani network involved countries — Pakistan, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates — that are not members of global export control regimes. “It is perfectly legal to ship centrifuge parts from any of these countries to Iran or Libya without any restrictions. This is true even though Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates belong to the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). In my opinion this is a serious loophole,” he said. He added that transfers of advanced centrifuges are allowable from nearly every country — “as long as the recipient is a member of the NPT. And that is the case for both Iran and Libya.” The Bush plan seeks to prevent such transfers by proposing new rules for the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a forum of 40 nations that develop and share a set of common nuclear export control guidelines. Bush urged the group to adopt a rule barring exports of uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing technology to countries that have not already established those capabilities. Milhollin said that Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea, nuclear-weapon-capable nations that are not party to the NPT or the NSG, already have the ability to produce nuclear materials, and some might be willing to share it with other nations.  “So it’s not clear what impact this proposal would have on any of them,” he said. Milhollin praised Bush’s recommendation to begin restricting civilian nuclear exports to countries that have not ratified the Additional Protocol to their international nuclear safeguards agreements. The protocol permits the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct more intrusive monitoring of nuclear activities and trade in the nations that sign up. He added, though, that the United States itself and many other countries have not ratified the protocol (see GSN, March 4). A First Test of Bush Proposals? Earlier this week, Henry Sokolski, a nonproliferation expert who served in the Pentagon during George H.W. Bush’s presidency, questioned the administration’s commitment to stopping proliferation. He urged the administration to oppose a potential deal by China to sell Pakistan a 300-megawatt nuclear reactor that would be constructed at Chasma, southwest of Islamabad. “You’d think that after the illicit Pakistani nuclear sales to North Korea, Iran, and Libya, the U.S. and its allies would want to boost the rules on nuclear exports, especially for nuclear goods bound for Islamabad,” he wrote in a National Review article. Sokolski said the lucrative sale defies NSG guidelines barring the supply of nuclear goods to states, such as Pakistan, that refuse to allow IAEA access to all their nuclear facilities. Although China is not an NSG participant, the Bush administration should protest the reactor deal, Sokolski said, but he acknowledged that doing so could harm U.S. reactor vendors competing with French and Chinese companies to do business in China. “Saying nothing to protest this sale to Islamabad would confirm that the worst proliferators, such as Pakistan, can not only go scot-free for their proliferating past, but also receive more nuclear technology without having to follow the rules,” he wrote. Sokolski said countries should band together and require China to forgo the Pakistani deal as a condition for China purchasing foreign reactors. A State Department official on Wednesday said that the administration has expressed concern about the deal, and that the International Atomic Energy Agency should safeguard the reactor. “China understands our concerns with Pakistan’s unsafeguarded nuclear program and pledged in 1996 not to provide assistance to any unsafeguarded nuclear facilities in any country,” the official said. “We expect that any nuclear cooperation China has with Pakistan, including the Chasma 2 project, would be safeguarded under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency,” the official said. Sokolski argued the deal should be opposed outright. “Letting these reactor sales proceed can only persuade Pakistani officials they are off the hook for behavior that has distinguished them as the worst nuclear proliferator since the advent of nuclear energy,” he wrote in his article. “The U.S. and its allies can hardly sell China reactors and say nothing about Beijing’s Pakistani reactor deal without making a hash of the NSG’s guidelines and President Bush’s own most recent nonproliferation proposals,” he said. Back to top       Chinese Foreign Minister to Visit North Korea; Japan Says Working Groups Likely in April The first working group meeting on North Korea’s nuclear program will likely seek the definition of North Korea’s “complete abolition of arms,” as well as procedures for freezing and dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear activities, the Kyodo News Service reported today (see GSN, March 15). Japan, South Korea, the United States and China are finalizing plans for an early April meeting, Japanese government sources said (Kyodo News Service, March 18). China is eager to begin further talks, Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said today. “China and the various parties have maintained exchanges,” Kong told the Associated Press. “We hope the working groups will be launched as soon as possible in order to facilitate and prepare for the third round of six-party talks,” he added. Kong also announced that Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing will visit North Korea next week to discuss the talks. China is North Korea’s last major friend, and it has coordinated and hosted the six-nation discussions on the North Korean nuclear crisis (Audra Ang, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, March 18). North Korea said today that dismantling its nuclear program — to which it has referred as its “nuclear deterrent” — would open the door to a U.S. invasion, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, March 10). “What has happened in Iraq shows that if we agree to disarmament through unjustified inspections, it will not prevent a war but actually invite one,” said North Korea’s official news agency (Sang-Hun Choe, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, March 18). Back to top       U.S. to Designate Pakistan as “Major Non-NATO Ally” Despite lingering concerns over the nuclear proliferation activities of Pakistani scientists, the United States plans to elevate Pakistani relations with Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said today (see GSN, March 16). “I advised the foreign minister this morning that we will also be making a notification to our Congress that will designate Pakistan as a ‘major non-NATO ally’ for the purposes of our future military-to-military relations,” Powell said after meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri in Islamabad. The designation would allow for increased military cooperation between the two countries and would allow Pakistan to purchase certain military equipment from the United States, according to Agence France-Presse. The designation would not allow Pakistan to acquire U.S. F-16 fighter aircraft, a deal that was curtailed over nuclear proliferation concerns, officials said (Matthew Lee, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 18). Powell also said today that the United States would aid in discussions between Pakistan and India, but that negotiations ultimately must be resolved by the two nuclear-armed rivals (see GSN, March 11). “At any point in this dialogue where we can be helpful, we will be helpful,” Powell said before meeting with President Pervez Musharraf. “But it is essentially a matter that has to be resolved between the two sides or it will not be resolved in a satisfactory way,” Powell added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 18). Back to top       Malaysia Stopped Suspected Nuclear Shipment in 1990s Malaysia stopped a shipment of suspected nuclear parts upon U.S. request in the early 1990s, but apparently found no components on board the ship, Malaysia’s former prime minister and a U.S. official said today (see GSN, March 9). Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad told the Associated Press that Malaysia honored a U.S. request to halt a shipment of stainless steel pipes made by a local company during his tenure, years before the nuclear black market scandal involving a Malaysian company came to light (see GSN, March 5). “We didn’t know where they were headed,” Mahathir said. “They didn’t say if it was for centrifuges. There were some reports submitted to me, saying that there was this American objection. They said it was meant for some nuclear thing,” he added. A U.S. official posted in Malaysia at the time, speaking on condition of anonymity, was unclear on details but recalled that a ship was searched but no parts were found. A Libya-bound shipment of 25,000 Malaysian-manufactured centrifuge parts for uranium enrichment bound was seized in October, a development that contributed to the unraveling of the nuclear smuggling network involfving Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation John Wolf visited Malaysia three weeks ago to encourage its officials to tighten export controls, but Malaysia would make no firm commitment (see GSN, March 3; Jasbant Singh, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, March 18). Back to top       China Has Held At Least Five Missile Tests This Year, U.S. Officials Say China has conducted at least five missile tests so far this year as part of efforts to modernize its armed forces, U.S. intelligence officials said yesterday (see GSN, June 18, 2003). “There is a big push under way and missile development and testing is a large part of their military modernization effort,” an official said. According to the officials, the tests involved China’s new DF-31 road-mobile ICBM, which has an estimated range of about 5,000 miles. China has also tested this year the DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile, which can be launched from land-based silos and submarines, and the DF-11 and DF-15 short-range missiles. China has deployed about 500 short-range missiles across from Taiwan, according to Washington Times. All the missile tests were conducted from the Wuzhai missile-testing center in central China, and the tested missiles were fired toward the western section of the country, the Times reported. Meanwhile, Taiwan is scheduled to hold a referendum Saturday that asks voters whether Taiwan should purchase missile defense systems if China refuses to redeploy the missiles it has targeting the island (see GSN, Feb. 20; Bill Gertz, Washington Times, March 18).   Back to top       Israeli Parliament to Debate Bill Calling for Closure of Nuclear Facility The Israeli Knesset was expected this week to debate a bill calling for the closure of the Dimona nuclear plant in southern Israel, which some experts have said is used to produce weapon-grade material for Israel’s long-suspected, but never acknowledged, nuclear arsenal (see GSN, March 3). Issam Makhul, a member of the Arab-Israeli Hadash party, introduced the bill, Agence France-Presse reported. According to the bill, the designed life span of a nuclear reactor is 40 years and the infrastructure of the Dimona facility was built 40 years ago. Makhul said Tuesday that he did not expect the bill to be approved by the Knesset. “We know it doesn’t have a chance of going through but its aim is to break the wall of silence surrounding Dimona,” Makhul said. “The fact that it is going to be discussed tomorrow has already generated a lot of debate,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 16). Back to top

U.S. Promises Kurds Justice for Iraqi Chemical Attack Former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and his aides will face justice for a 1988 chemical attack on Iraqi Kurds, the administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq told victims’ families yesterday in Halabja, Reuters reported (see GSN, Jan. 3, 2003). Paul Bremer spoke at the town’s memorial building and assured Kurds that Hussein and his cousin Ali Hassan al-Majid, nicknamed “Chemical Ali” for his alleged orchestration of gas attacks, would be held accountable. “I can promise you that justice will be done,” he said on the 16th anniversary of the bombing attack that killed 5,000 people. The March 16, 1988 Halabja attack was the pinnacle of a campaign of terror against Iraqi Kurds to punish them for seeking autonomy in northern Iraq during its war with Iran, according to Reuters. Many people still suffer from the attacks, said Aras Akram, head of the Halabja Anti-Chemical Society, which helps survivors. “They dropped napalm and mustard gas,” he said. “People still have problems with their eyes — asthma and cancer are also very common,” Akram added. Akram, whose parents, seven sisters and three brothers were killed in the attack, said that Hussein’s execution would not be a just punishment for the crime. “Even if [Hussein] were executed, that would not be enough,” he said. “Saddam committed genocide.  He should be put in a cage so that everybody can go and see him,” he added. U.S. troops captured Hussein in December. Al-Majid was arrested in August (Seb Walker, Reuters/Yahoo!News, March 17). Back to top

Ottawa Politician Calls for Ending U.S.-Canadian Missile Defense Talks The leader of an opposition party in the Canadian Parliament said that Canada should end discussions with the United States about joining a U.S. missile defense plan, the Toronto Star reported today (see GSN, March 17). “We should withdraw from the talks,” said Jack Layton, leader of the left-wing New Democratic Party. “That would send a strong message to the world that we’re actually serious about re-engaging around disarmament,” he added (Bruce Campion-Smith, Toronto Star, March 18). Layton’s comments followed warnings from a former U.S. Defense Department official that the missile defense system is unworkable and that it would lead to the weaponization of space, something Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin opposes, according to the Toronto Star. Philip Coyle, an assistant defense secretary in the Clinton administration, told the Star that implementation of the system would lead to a new arms race but would not protect Canada. “I think there is a misunderstanding in Canada that somehow the United States is going to defend it with missile defenses,” Coyle said. “That’s not in the cards, at least not today, and it may never be,” he added. Coyle, a senior adviser at the Center for Defense Information, added that the system is not necessary for protection against missile attacks. He said if North Korea developed an intercontinental ballistic missile, the United States would not wait for it to be launched but would instead attack it on the ground. “It’s not like we are defenseless against such weapons, like some politicians and the Bush administration would have you believe,” said Coyle (Tim Harper, Toronto Star, March 17).     Back to top

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