Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

    Issue for Friday, April 23, 2004

    Week in Review

    Search and View Past Issues

  wmd  
U.N. Resolution on Weapons of Mass Destruction Sparks Debate Full Story
Russian Defense Ministry to Oversee Export Controls Full Story
U.N. Security Council Praises Libya; U.S. Faces Political Hurdles in Lifting Sanctions Full Story
Intelligence Warns of Attack on House of Commons Full Story
Weather Radar Might Be Used to Detect WMD Attacks Full Story
FBI Interviews Crop-Duster Pilots Full Story
Recent Stories

  nuclear  
Indian, Pakistani Nuclear Experts to Meet Next Month; India Said to Possess “Mini-Nukes” Full Story
Iran Denies Nuclear Ambitions; Foreign Minister Meets With Blair in London Full Story
Energy Department Finds Lax Nuclear Weapons Maintenance Full Story
U.S. Doubts North Korean Commitment to End Nuclear Crisis Full Story
Annual NPT Meeting Begins Next Week Full Story
Recent Stories

  chemical  
Japan, China Set to Build Chemical Weapons Disposal Facility Full Story
Army Won’t Move Chemical Weapons in Alabama During NASCAR Weekend Full Story
Utah Chemical Weapon Destruction Reaches Milestone Full Story
Senator Lashes Out at Changes to Chemical Depot Plan Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile2  
No Plans for Missile Defense Radar in Japan, U.S. Agency Says Full Story
Recent Stories

 

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Go enjoy the race, and don’t worry about the incinerator
—Talladega County Emergency Management Agency director Nelson Bates on plans to suspend some Anniston depot chemical weapons destruction activity during NASCAR races this weekend at the nearby Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama.


Spanish U.N. Ambassador Inocencio Arias yesterday defended the limited scope of a draft Security Council resolution on WMD proliferation (Photo courtesy Spanish Mission in New York).
Spanish U.N. Ambassador Inocencio Arias yesterday defended the limited scope of a draft Security Council resolution on WMD proliferation (Photo courtesy Spanish Mission in New York).
U.N. Resolution on Weapons of Mass Destruction Sparks Debate

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

UNITED NATIONS — During a Security Council debate yesterday, a wide range of countries found much to praise and criticize in a draft resolution before the council that would require states to ensure terrorists and other “nonstate actors” are denied access to weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, April 9).

There was no disagreement over the premise of the draft — that more needs to be done to ensure terrorists and other nonstate actors do not acquire nuclear, chemical or biological weapons — but there were concerns over whether this resolution was the best way to accomplish that...Full Story

Russian Defense Ministry to Oversee Export Controls

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

MOSCOW — As part of a massive government reorganization, Russia’s export control regulatory system will be formally placed under the auspices of the country’s Defense Ministry, an export controls expert here told Global Security Newswire yesterday...Full Story

No Plans for Missile Defense Radar in Japan, U.S. Agency Says

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The United States currently has no plans for deploying an early warning missile defense radar in Japan as part of its national missile defense effort, U.S. officials said, appearing to contradict Japanese news reports this week that a request has been made to Tokyo...Full Story

Current Issue Friday, April 23, 2004
wmd

U.N. Resolution on Weapons of Mass Destruction Sparks Debate

By Jim Wurst
Global Security Newswire

UNITED NATIONS — During a Security Council debate yesterday, a wide range of countries found much to praise and criticize in a draft resolution before the council that would require states to ensure terrorists and other “nonstate actors” are denied access to weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, April 9).

There was no disagreement over the premise of the draft — that more needs to be done to ensure terrorists and other nonstate actors do not acquire nuclear, chemical or biological weapons — but there were concerns over whether this resolution was the best way to accomplish that.

The draft would require states to “adopt and enforce appropriate effective laws” to deny weapons of mass destruction, their components and “means of delivery” (such as missiles and drones) to any “nonstate actors.” The primary goal of the draft, according to its sponsors, is to close loopholes to make it harder for terrorists to obtain such weapons, because existing treaties only deal with governments.

The draft originated with the United States and was presented to the council in March on behalf of all five permanent members of the council — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Spain has joined as a co-sponsor.

One common complaint was that the draft focuses on nonproliferation at the expense of disarmament. The text contains one reference to disarmament.

The goals of arms control treaties “are first and foremost to achieve effective progress toward general and complete disarmament,” said Canadian Ambassador Gilbert Laurin. “The resolution should recognize this important balance and equal emphasis on nonproliferation and disarmament obligations,” he said.

Indian Ambassador V.K. Nambiar said, “Exclusive focus on nonproliferation does disservice to the essential principle of the mutually reinforcing linkage between disarmament and nonproliferation.”

Two other criticisms of the draft dealt with the increasing power that some nations felt the resolution would confer on the council. Specifically, by creating binding obligations, the council would override existing treaties and by invoking Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter — the provision justifying enforcement against noncompliant states — the council would have too much coercive power, according to the critics.

South African Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo said the draft would “establish a mechanism in the Security Council that is isolated” from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the Biological and Chemical Weapons Conventions. Nambiar said he was concerned “over the increasing tendency of the council in recent years to assume new and wider powers of legislation on behalf of the international community, and binding on all states.”

While acting under Chapter 7, “the resolution ought to steer clear of any coercive or punitive approach,” said Nambiar.

Deputy British Ambassador Adam Thomson sought to address these concerns. Progress on disarmament is “important,” he said, but added that “it has always been clear” that the draft should be about nonstate actors and proliferation. “The resolution does not in any way undermine the importance of disarmament, it is just that disarmament is not its primary focus,” he said.

Citing Chapter 7 does not mean it is “about coercion or enforcement,” said Thomson, it “simply reflects the fact that what we are dealing with is a clear threat to international peace and security.” He added, “It would send an odd message if the Security Council were to act on any other basis.”

“The resolution does not negate the importance of existing multilateral arrangements,” Thompson added. “It is clear that in the face of this urgent threat, only the Security Council can act with the necessary speed and authority.”

Ambassador Don MacKay of New Zealand said this is only an urgent matter now because “there has not been sufficient will to see the existing multilateral disarmament and nonproliferation regimes significantly strengthened, with the result that the council is now being asked to step forward to fill a gap, with the required urgency.”

The European Union, Australia, Israel, Japan and Singapore were generally supportive of the draft as it stands. “Sweden has consistently advocated that a strong and central role be given to the Security Council in addressing these issues,” said Ambassador Pierre Schori of Sweden, an EU member country. “In our view it is both timely and proper” that the council deal with WMD proliferation.

While this session was called to give noncouncil members an opportunity to comment on the draft, it was also the first opportunity for council members to make their cases publicly. Among the council members, there were enough concerns to make clear that the resolution as it stands could not be approved by consensus. Algeria, Brazil, Germany and Pakistan all had substantial questions about the text, while Angola, Benin and Romania largely favored the draft.

Algerian Ambassador Abdullah Baali said, “It is appropriate and necessary to have this draft resolution reaffirm the need to work for disarmament.”

On the other hand, Spanish Ambassador Inocencio Arias said, “If there are too many paragraphs on disarmament in the draft, we run the risk of diluting the objective of the resolution.”

Approving this resolution would mean the council is “acting in an exceptional manner since, clearly, the Charter does not confer to it a mandate to legislate on behalf of the international community,” said Baali.

Arias called the initiative “part of the global struggle against terrorism,” therefore “this council is competent to act.” Acting under Chapter 7 will “send a strong political message,” he added.

More than 50 countries addressed the session.


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Russian Defense Ministry to Oversee Export Controls

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

MOSCOW — As part of a massive government reorganization, Russia’s export control regulatory system will be formally placed under the auspices of the country’s Defense Ministry, an export controls expert here told Global Security Newswire yesterday.

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin eliminated about half of Russia’s 30 Cabinet-level ministries in a move described by Russian officials as necessary “administrative reform.” Among the ministries eliminated was the Atomic Energy Ministry, which has had its activities transferred to the new Industry and Energy Ministry and the Defense Ministry (see GSN, March 26).

Previously, all export control activities were conducted by a department within the Economic Development and Trade Ministry, said Elina Kirichenko of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. The department was responsible for preparing export licensing documents for a state review by experts from the appropriate ministries, such as Defense, Science and Technology and the former Atomic Energy Ministry.   The item to be exported and on which control list it appeared determined which ministry was responsible for the review, according to Kirichenko.

Oversight of Russia’s export control framework would now be transferred from the Economic Development and Trade Ministry to the Defense Ministry, Kirichenko said. Under the new system, the Defense Ministry will oversee the Service of Technical Regulation and Export Control, which in turn will oversee the export control department, she said.

Kirichenko said an interagency export control commission, which had worked to develop a nonproliferation export control strategy and was also responsible for reviewing “difficult” export control decisions, would be maintained. She said that Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov would probably head the commission, but the rest of its membership, which consisted of deputy heads of relevant ministries and agencies, may change as part of the reorganization.

While the overall impact of the transfer is yet to be known, Kirichenko said yesterday that she expected little change to Russia’s export control policies and activities. Many of the same officials and experts previously involved in the system have remained in place, though the names of their ministries and agencies may have changed. 

The export control department maintained a large degree of independence under the Economic Development and Trade Ministry, Kirichenko said, adding that it remains to be seen if it would maintain the same level of autonomy under the Defense Ministry.

One concern, though, is that the Defense Ministry might be assuming too much control of various governmental functions as a result of the restructuring, Kirichenko said, calling for a “more balanced mechanism.”  

It is also still unclear as to when the government reorganization will be officially completed, according to Kirichenko. Various export control-related guidelines must be rewritten to reflect the new changes to the government structure, she said. It took about a year to do so after Russia enacted a comprehensive export control law in 1999, Kirichenko added.

One possible deadline for the progress on the restructuring is the Group of Eight summit to be held in June in the United States, Kirichenko said. The summit is expected to include discussion of the G-8 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction, an effort launched in 2002 under which G-8 members agreed to pledge funding for nonproliferation projects in Russia. G-8 members would want to know at the summit who in Russia would be responsible for the Global Partnership’s efforts now that the government has been restructured, she said.


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U.N. Security Council Praises Libya; U.S. Faces Political Hurdles in Lifting Sanctions


The U.N. Security Council yesterday praised Libya for renouncing its WMD programs, while U.S. plans to lift economic sanctions on Tripoli could face political opposition from families of U.S. soldiers killed and wounded in a 1986 Libyan-backed bombing of a Berlin nightclub (see GSN, April 22).

The Bush administration is prepared to lift sanctions on Libya as early as today, but attorneys for families of the bombing victims said the move would reduce their leverage to bargain with the Libyan government for compensation, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“Lifting the sanctions will have the effect of the Bush administration abandoning U.S. servicemen at what looks like the altar of the interests of U.S. oil companies,” said Mario Mirabelli, a lawyer for the families.

Mirabelli and other lawyers earlier this month sent a letter to top administration officials seeking support from the White House. A White House official said the letter arrived earlier this week and is being reviewed (Robert Greenberger, Wall Street Journal, April 23).

Meanwhile, the Security Council yesterday unanimously adopted a statement welcoming “the decision (by Libya) to abandon its programs for developing weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.”

The statement encouraged Libya “to ensure the verified elimination” of the arms programs through inspections and hoped Libya’s decision would encourage international cooperation with Tripoli (Reuters/AlertNet, April 22).


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Intelligence Warns of Attack on House of Commons


There is “clear intelligence” that al-Qaeda could be planning to use ricin or anthrax to attack the British House of Commons, members were warned yesterday (see GSN, April 7).

Leader of the Commons Peter Hain said his information came from MI5 Director General Eliza Manningham-Buller. 

“If an al-Qaeda group managed to throw a vial of anthrax or ricin into the chamber, or even worse a suicide agent released it without anybody noticing, which we have been advised is quite feasible, the particles would immediately begin spreading throughout the chamber,” Hain said. “Because of the way the air flows work, within minutes total contamination could occur,” he added.

The Commons already had installed a temporary screen against chemical or biological attacks in front of the public viewing gallery, and members of Parliament yesterday approved erecting a $2.3 million permanent barrier (Ben Russell, London Independent, April 23).


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Weather Radar Might Be Used to Detect WMD Attacks


The U.S. Army is studying whether the Doppler radar weather-tracking system might also be used to detect the release of chemical or biological agents in the sky, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, 25, 2002).

Congress has designated $15 million to date for development of the “Homeland Defense Chemical Biological Umbrella.” The U.S. Army and researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are working to install the system in federal radar stations in about 36 cities; five detection sites could begin operating late this year, AP reported.

Testing began last year, but the Army declined to discuss results. Details of how the system would work were also vague — the Army would only say that computer programs would note differences between normal weather patterns around aircraft and a release of a chemical or biological agent. The system could track the cloud to protect civilians and direct first responders.

The Army has tested the radar’s ability to detect substances released in the air, AP reported. Final testing and a demonstration are planned for May and June.

Experts, though, said they were not convinced the system would be cost efficient and whether it would be able to differentiate between a chemical release and dust or pollution.

“You get a lot of false positives if you’re monitoring the area 24 hours a day, seven days a week,” said Tara O’Toole, a physician and bioterrorism expert at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. “Each of those false alarms uses up a lot of resources,” she added (Theo Emery, Associated Press, April 22).


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FBI Interviews Crop-Duster Pilots


FBI agents have interviewed hundreds of crop-duster pilots in the last year as the war in Iraq increased fears of an attack by plane releasing chemical or biological agents, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, June 3, 2003).

More than 3,000 pilots and airplane owners have been questioned since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, most of them following the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, documents state. There have been no arrests under the Agriculture Aviation Threat Project, but interviews have led to continuing terrorism investigations, a senior law enforcement official told AP.

Agents asked whether pilots or owners knew of efforts by foreigners to buy crop dusters, said Andrew Moore, executive director of the National Agriculture Aviation Association.

Crop dusters were grounded after the attacks, and intelligence indicated terrorist groups were looking at using planes to spray a deadly agent, AP reported.

Crop dusters could be used to contaminate the U.S. food supply, but it remains unknown how successful they would be in a more immediate attack. The planes are hard to fly and are not allowed into urban areas and, Moore said. Loading a deadly agent would also require expertise and equipment, he said (Curt Anderson, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, April 22).


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nuclear

Indian, Pakistani Nuclear Experts to Meet Next Month; India Said to Possess “Mini-Nukes”


Nuclear experts from India and Pakistan are scheduled to meet next month for talks aimed at strengthening confidence in the relationship between the two nuclear-powered rivals, according to the South China Morning Post (see GSN, April 22).

The May 25-26 meetings were announced one day before a German newspaper reported yesterday that India has successfully developed low-yield nuclear weapons for battlefield use, the Morning Post said.

Citing the Berliner Zeitung, the report quotes diplomatic sources as saying that India has approached the United States, which lifted its own ban on researching low-yield nuclear weapons last year, for approval in testing the weapon off its eastern seaboard, possibly on an uninhabited island in the Bay of Bengal. The diplomats said there has not yet been a response from Washington on the request.

A “boutique bomb” would release a nuclear blast of less than one kiloton. Such “usable” weapons reduce the deterrent against nuclear war, critics said.

“They are dangerous because these are ‘usable’ nuclear weapons, and the moment one side uses it the other side will feel justified in using whatever bombs it has in its nuclear arsenal,” said Achin Vanaik, co-author of South Asia on a Short Fuse (Maseeh Rahman, South China Morning Post, April 23).


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Iran Denies Nuclear Ambitions; Foreign Minister Meets With Blair in London


Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi yesterday again denied U.S. allegations that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, Xinhua reported (see GSN, April 22).

“The Americans level a charge and make conclusions based on the same groundless charge,” Iran’s IRNA news agency quoted Kharazi as saying. “Iran definitely has no plan for producing nuclear weapons and any such plan is not part of our security strategies,” he added in an interview from London (Xinhua, April 23).

While in London, Kharazi met with British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Foreign Secretary Jack Straw to discuss Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“The key issue we discussed was Iran’s progress in respect of the nuclear dossier,” Straw said. “We discussed the letters the three European foreign ministers sent in August, the agreement which we reached in Tehran on Oct. 21 and subsequent discussions, and then we also went on to talk about Iraq,” he added.

During an October visit by European foreign ministers to Tehran, the United Kingdom, France and Germany secured Iran’s agreement to allow nuclear inspections. The International Atomic Energy Agency had criticized Iran prior to the agreement for failing to provide a complete account of its nuclear programs.

However, last month Iran’s nuclear chief said that the country had resumed experimental uranium enrichment (see GSN, March 29).

Kharazi told reporters after his meeting that Iran had been “working very hard” with European countries on the nuclear standoff. 

“Big steps have been taken so far,” he said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 22).


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Energy Department Finds Lax Nuclear Weapons Maintenance


A U.S. Energy Department investigation has found that the National Nuclear Security Administration repeatedly missed key surveillance and maintenance milestones for its nuclear arsenal, the Albuquerque Journal reported this week (see GSN, March 29).

The Inspector General’s report also alleges that the “Enhanced Surveillance” program is flawed because the government may not understand the nuclear stockpile’s long-term maintenance needs, such as when particular parts must be replaced.

In two examples listed in the report, Los Alamos National Laboratory missed the schedule for making plutonium parts for a study by 19 months, while development of high-resolution X-rays of plutonium parts was 15 months behind schedule at the Pantex weapons plant in Texas.

The Modern Pit Facility, a proposed plutonium factory for manufacturing replacement parts for nuclear weapons, could be among the projects delayed by the agency’s difficulties, according to the report.

NNSA officials said the report’s central claim is inaccurate, arguing their surveillance effort is on schedule to meet all of its most important milestones (John Fleck, Albuquerque Journal, April 20).


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U.S. Doubts North Korean Commitment to End Nuclear Crisis


The United States yesterday expressed skepticism regarding North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s commitment to ending the nuclear standoff on the Korean peninsula, while South Korea said yesterday’s train explosion in the North Korean city of Ryongchon would not affect the nuclear negotiations (see GSN, April 22).

“As you know, the North Koreans have avoided any real commitments. And I’m not sure they’ve made any new ones,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher, in response to questions about Kim’s visit to China this week.

A senior State Department official added that the United States would remain skeptical of North Korea’s intentions “until we see things manifested in some real way” (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, April 23).

Meanwhile, South Korea said today that a deadly train explosion yesterday in North Korea would not hamper efforts at conducting six-nation talks on the nuclear issue.

“I don’t think the incident will affect the nuclear talks,” said South Korean Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun. “The nuclear talks should go on regardless of the incident,” he added (Associated Press, April 23).


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Annual NPT Meeting Begins Next Week


Parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty are scheduled to begin meeting Monday in the last annual session before next year’s review conference (see GSN, May 9, 2003). 

Representatives at the two-week “preparatory committee” meeting in New York are expected to “consider issues affecting the purpose, operation and implementation of the treaty and agree on strengthening measures to be approved at the treaty’s upcoming review conference in 2005,” according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said in a prepared statement he hoped next year’s session would lead to agreement “on a specific course of action that will help re-engineer the nuclear nonproliferation regime and revive the stalling nuclear arms control and disarmament process” (see GSN, Feb. 12; IAEA release, April 22).


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chemical

Japan, China Set to Build Chemical Weapons Disposal Facility


Japan and China agreed yesterday to build a chemical weapons disposal facility in China’s northern Jilin province, putting the countries on schedule to meet a 2007 deadline to destroy the World War II-era munitions, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, April 15).

Japan pledged to contribute $157 million to fully fund construction of the site, and to pay incineration costs for the approximately 700,000 chemical bombs and grenades it estimates Japanese soldiers abandoned in China during their retreat. Chinese experts believe there could be up to 2 million pieces of Japanese ammunition in the abandoned chemical stockpile, reportedly the world’s largest.

Site design for the facility is to begin immediately and construction is scheduled for spring of next year, according to Japanese Cabinet Office official Akihiko Aoyama (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, April 23).


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Army Won’t Move Chemical Weapons in Alabama During NASCAR Weekend


The U.S. Army plans to suspend movements of chemical weapons within the Anniston, Ala., depot as some 200,000 racing fans gather for this weekend’s events at the nearby Talladega Superspeedway, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, April 14).

Site manager Tim Garrett said that while chemical weapons incineration would continue at the current rate of about 16 rockets per hour at Anniston during the races, the Army would not resume transporting munitions for destruction until Monday morning.

The incinerator is about 12 miles from the super speedway, site of this weekend’s Aaron’s 312 and Aaron’s 499 races.

“Go enjoy the race, and don’t worry about the incinerator,” said Talladega County Emergency Management Agency director Nelson Bates (Associated Press/Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, April 22).


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Utah Chemical Weapon Destruction Reaches Milestone


Propellant explosive components have been removed from half of the more than 20,000 4.2-inch mustard-agent-carrying mortars being stored at the Deseret Chemical Depot in Utah, the Tooele Transcript Bulletin reported yesterday (see GSN, March 30).

Removal work by 22 workers at the Oquirrh Mountain Facility began in September 2003 (Tooele Transcript Bulletin, April 22).


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Senator Lashes Out at Changes to Chemical Depot Plan


Revising plans for the chemical weapons destruction at the Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado will slow the project by six months, to the dismay of a U.S. senator, the Pueblo Chieftain reported today (see GSN, April 7).

The U.S. Army plans to destroy 2,500 tons of mustard agent in munitions at the site. Planned funding for the effort in fiscal 2005 has dropped from $151.7 million to $4.9 million as the Defense Department seeks less expensive options for the work.

“What the department is proposing makes very little sense to me. It is shortsighted and unwise,” said Senator Wayne Allard (R-Colo.). “It will end up adding millions to the project’s final cost. It looks penny-wise, but pound-foolish,” he added.

Allard said he would seek a meeting with Undersecretary of Defense Michael Wynne, who is in charge of the Pueblo program (John Norton, Pueblo Chieftain, April 23).


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missile2

No Plans for Missile Defense Radar in Japan, U.S. Agency Says

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The United States currently has no plans for deploying an early warning missile defense radar in Japan as part of its national missile defense effort, U.S. officials said, appearing to contradict Japanese news reports this week that a request has been made to Tokyo.

In coming years, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency is looking to field air-transportable “X-band” radars overseas for early warning and tracking of ICBM launches, agency spokesman Rick Lehner told Global Security Newswire. He said, however, that “no locations have been specified for any of those radars except that they would be forward based.”

“The forward-based radars we are looking at for Block 06 [2006-2007] and after are small air-transportable X-band radars similar to the THAAD TPS-X radar.  There are no plans now to place a TPS-X in Japan but with the mobility benefits of the radar it could be moved to just about anywhere,” he said by e-mail.

Pentagon spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Flex Plexico said, “The U.S. and Japan are looking at lots of technical options,” but “there are no specific proposals.”

Japanese papers this week reported that U.S. officials privately asked to post a radar there for U.S. defense. The Asahi Shimbun, quoting unidentified sources, reported yesterday that Japanese defense officials plan to request more details and consider the merits of such a deployment.

Also citing an unidentified defense official, the English-language Japan Times reported on April 6 that U.S. officials this year asked for either full access to Japanese radar data or permission to build a radar station in Japan. It said providing the data could prove sensitive, possibly challenging Japan’s post-World War II constitutional restrictions limiting military cooperation.

For defense of its own territory, Japan last December agreed to buy Aegis theater missile defense and ground-based Patriot Advanced Capability 3 systems for fielding possibly by 2007. The United States also agreed this year to post an Aegis destroyer near Japan for protection from North Korea (see GSN, March 24).

Uncertain Plans

Lisbeth Gronlund, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, said she suspects the Missile Defense Agency may maintain there are no plans for a radar on Japan until Tokyo has approved the idea.

“There may not be plans, but there are apparently desires on the part of MDA,” she said.

The Missile Defense Agency has generally refused to disclose its plans for fielding the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system more than a few years in advance.

A budget document provided to Congress this year said the agency is working to “define a BMDS [ballistic missile defense system] architecture” and determine what radars to buy in the coming years.

The agency has indicated plans to begin operating elements of the system this year and next, using a Cobra Dane radar based in Alaska, Upgraded Early Warning Radars in Alaska and California, and existing early warning Defense Support Program satellites.

Aegis ship-based SPY-1 radars “can also provide some limited early warning coverage for missile detection and tracking,” Lehner said.

That mix of capabilities, though, is considered by experts to be less than ideal (see GSN, Jan. 8). To enhance the capability, the agency plans to field in 2006 and 2007 developmental Space Tracking and Surveillance Systems (STSS) satellites, sea-based X-band radars, and the smaller air-movable ground-based TPS-X radars.

The STSS systems, however, have faced program delays from technological challenges and the sea-based X-band concept is still being developed and is not yet proven in rough waters.

An X-band-type radar stationed in Japan could be important for tracking a North Korean missile headed for California, and Hawaii in particular, Gronlund said.

Second to improving the system’s interceptors to be able to defeat enemy countermeasures, “Their biggest problem right now is [defending] Hawaii and they’ve only got the SPY-1 radar there … and the capability of SPY-1 is quite limited compared to the X-band radar they plan to use,” she said.

The United States last year gained British permission to upgrade an early warning radar in the United Kingdom for defending the United States against prospective threats from the Middle East and is seeking to upgrade a radar in Greenland as well, with Danish permission (see GSN, Feb. 6, 2003). 

 

 

 

 

 


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