Speaking at the International Atomic Energy Agency today in Vienna, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham announced a $450 million plan to secure nuclear materials worldwide against use by terrorists as radiological weapons. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei listens in the background (AFP Photo/Joe Klamar). U.S. Outlines Plan for Securing Nuclear Materials By Marina Malenic Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Energy Department today announced a $450 million initiative to keep terrorists from acquiring nuclear materials that could be used to build a nuclear or radiological weapon (see GSN, May 25). Large quantities of spent fuel and radiological sources must be secured or disposed of from hundreds of aging or decommissioned research reactors to ensure the nuclear material does not fall into the wrong hands, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said in a speech to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna...Full Story

IAEA Faces Hurdles in Studying Reported North Korea-Libya Uranium Link By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The International Atomic Energy Agency board is unlikely to take action at its next meeting in response to reports that North Korea was the source of uranium hexafluoride surrendered this year by Libya, Western diplomats said today from Vienna (see GSN, May 25)...Full Story

U.S. Warns of Summer al-Qaeda Attack Al-Qaeda operatives are believed to be in the United States and preparing an attack this summer, possibly hoping to affect the outcome of U.S. elections, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, May 19)...Full Story

	Wednesday, May 26, 2004

U.S. Warns of Summer al-Qaeda Attack Al-Qaeda operatives are believed to be in the United States and preparing an attack this summer, possibly hoping to affect the outcome of U.S. elections, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, May 19). Attorney General John Ashcroft and FBI Director Robert Mueller are set to hold a joint news conference this afternoon on the danger, according to the Post. Intelligence obtained about a month ago indicated an attack on the United States might be unleashed between now and early September. Other intelligence suggests al-Qaeda is pleased with the change in government resulting from the March 11 terrorist bombings in Spain and might be hoping to affect U.S. and other elections. “They saw that an attack of that nature can have economic and political consequences and have some impact on the electoral process,” said one federal official with access to counterterrorism intelligence (Schmidt/Priest, Washington Post, May 26). Meanwhile, the International Institute of Strategic Studies released its annual survey of world affairs yesterday, in which it says that al-Qaeda is probably planning major attacks on the United States and Europe, and is possibly seeking weapons of mass destruction for such attacks. The report also notes that the United States is al-Qaeda’s prime target in a war it sees as a struggle between civilizations, the Associated Press reported. Osama bin Laden’s network has more than 18,000 potential terrorists scattered in more than 60 nations, according to the study. Although about half of al-Qaeda’s top 30 leaders have been killed or captured, the organization still has an effective leadership, with bin Laden apparently remaining in a pivotal role, the report notes. The report suggests that the U.S.-led war on terrorism, and particularly the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, may have helped al-Qaeda. Driving the network out of Afghanistan in late 2001 appears to have dispersed operatives to many countries, making them almost invisible and more difficult to combat. The U.S. occupation of Iraq also brought recruits from across Islamic nations, the study says. Developments such as the democratization of Iraq and the end of fighting in Israel could accelerate the defeat of al-Qaeda, the study goes on to say (Barry Renfrew, Associated Press/Miami Herald, May 26). Back to top       Experts Criticize U.S. State Department Terrorism Report For Too Much Positive “Spin” By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The latest version of the U.S. State Department’s annual terrorism report came under fire last week from critics who accused the department of placing positive “spin” on the reports’ findings (see GSN, April 30). Late last month, the State Department released its 2003 Patterns of Global Terrorism report, according to which there were 190 acts of international terrorism last year. The 2003 total, according to the report, represents a “slight decrease” from the 198 total incidents that occurred in 2002 and a 45-percent decrease from the 346 total incidents that occurred in 2001. In addition, the report also notes that the 2003 total is the lowest reported number of annual terrorist attacks since 1969. During an April 29 State Department press briefing to release the report, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said the data provided “clear evidence that we are prevailing in the fight” against terrorism. Last week, however, two U.S. university professors published a commentary in the Washington Post criticizing the reports’ findings. While the number of total terrorist incidents may have decreased, the only verifiable information in the report indicates that the number of “significant” terrorist incidents has actually increased annually since 2001, according to Princeton University economics professor Alan Krueger and Stanford University political science professor David Laitin. “Are we winning the war on terrorism?” wrote Krueger and Laitin.  “The short answer is ‘No,’ but that’s not the spin the administration is putting on it,” they added. The Associated Press reported today that U.S. officials are concerned that al-Qaeda might attempt a large-scale terrorist attacks this summer, possibly using weapons of mass destruction (see related GSN story, today). Of the 190 terrorist incidents reported last year, 169 are detailed in a report appendix entitled “Chronology of Significant Terrorist Incidents, 2003” — a 36-percent increase from the 124 significant incidents reported in 2001, according to Krueger and Laitin. The remaining 21 nonsignificant acts that occurred last year, however, are not described in detail in the report and are therefore unverifiable, they wrote, adding that the Bush administration engaged in “sleight of hand” by combining the number of significant and nonsignificant incidents to reach a conclusion of an overall decline in terrorist incidents. “The alleged decline in terrorism in 2003 was entirely a result of a decline in nonsignificant events,” Krueger and Laitin wrote. “The fact that the number of nonsignificant terrorist acts has headed down — even if true — is, well, nonsignificant,” they added. Krueger and Laitin’s criticisms were included in a letter sent last week to Secretary of State Colin Powell by Representative Henry Waxman (Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Government Reform Committee. In his letter, Waxman called on Powell to provide by June 1 a “detailed” listing of all total terrorist incidents since 1995 and information about how last year’s terrorism report was prepared, including the identities of the members of the U.S. Government Incident Review Panel, which decides which attacks will be included. The U.S. State Department did not return calls for comment on Krueger and Laitin’s criticisms. In a written response to Global Security Newswire today, Krueger said the department’s silence so far indicated that “some folks there have recognized that our criticisms were appropriate and devastating.” Back to top

New York Times Admits Flaws in Iraqi WMD Coverage The New York Times today acknowledged flaws in its coverage of whether Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction before the U.S.-led invasion began last year (see GSN, March 16). “We have found a number of instances of coverage that was not as rigorous as it should have been. In some cases, information that was controversial then, and seems questionable now, was insufficiently qualified or allowed to stand unchallenged. Looking back, we wish we had been more aggressive in re-examining the claims as new evidence emerged — or failed to emerge,” a notice from Times editors said. The notice lists several articles stretching back to late October 2001 that contained questionable claims regarding Iraq’s alleged prewar links to al-Qaeda and the country’s WMD efforts. For example, a Dec. 20, 2001, front-page article cited an Iraqi defector who claimed to have worked on renovating secret Iraqi WMD facilities. According to reports last week, however, when U.S. officials took the defector back to Iraq earlier this year, he was unable to identify any WMD-related sites. The Times blamed its “problematic articles,” in part, on the use of information that came from Iraqi defectors and exiles that supported the overthrow of Hussein. One such source, the since-discredited Ahmad Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, has been named as a source in Times articles going back to 1991 and introduced Times reporters to other exiles, according to the editorial. “Administration officials now acknowledge that they sometimes fell for misinformation from these exile sources. So did many news organizations — in particular, this one,” the Times editors wrote (New York Times, May 26). Times Ombudsman Dan Okrent is expected to publish his own findings on the paper’s coverage of the Iraqi WMD debate Sunday, the Washington Post reported (Howard Kurtz, Washington Post, May 26). Back to top

U.S. Outlines Plan for Securing Nuclear Materials By Marina Malenic Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The U.S. Energy Department today announced a $450 million initiative to keep terrorists from acquiring nuclear materials that could be used to build a nuclear or radiological weapon (see GSN, May 25). Large quantities of spent fuel and radiological sources must be secured or disposed of from hundreds of aging or decommissioned research reactors to ensure the nuclear material does not fall into the wrong hands, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said in a speech to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. “The recent revelations of the complex network established by A.Q. Khan give startling scope to the nonproliferation challenge we collectively face,” Abraham said. “Coupled with the horrific attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Bali, and, most recently, Madrid, we are forced to assume that rogue states and terrorists, in concert with for-profit proliferators, will act vigorously to achieve their ends,” he added. In response to what Abraham called an “evolving proliferation threat” posed by nuclear materials, the United States is set to establish a new organization within the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration.  The Global Threat Reduction Initiative will focus exclusively on efforts to “secure, remove, or dispose of” a broad range of “nuclear and radiological materials around the world that are vulnerable to theft,” Abraham said.  The U.S. plan calls for: *         Partnering with Russia to repatriate all Russian-origin fresh highly enriched uranium fuel by the end of 2005 and accelerate and complete the return of all Russian-origin spent fuel by 2010.  Such projects would be undertaken on a priority basis according to the degree of the security threat posed in each case (see GSN, Dec. 29, 2003). *         Accelerating and completing the repatriation of all U.S.-origin research reactor spent fuel under an existing U.S. program from locations around the world within a decade (see GSN, April 15). *         Working to convert the cores of civilian research reactors that use highly enriched uranium to instead use low-enriched uranium fuel, both in the United States and worldwide (see GSN, Feb. 12). *         Identifying other nuclear and radiological materials and related equipment not yet covered by existing threat reduction efforts and, addressing the most vulnerable facilities first, fill any gaps that would allow a terrorist to acquire such materials. Abraham said U.S. funding should be “more than sufficient” to secure U.S.- and Russian-origin materials and to convert international reactors to use low-enriched uranium fuel, but that additional resources would be needed for the remaining work. “We will need more funds — and heightened international cooperation — to finish the job,” Abraham said. “Dedicated as we are to this effort, it is also clear to me that a truly effective nonproliferation regime is made up of the collaboration of efforts by all of us, not just a few. This is particularly the case regarding the collection of materials that are not of Russian or American origin, or that may be located in places where cooperation requires a broader international effort, and that pose certain challenges that the United States and Russia cannot address alone,” he added. The energy secretary proposed that a Global Threat Reduction Initiative Partners’ Conference be scheduled for this fall. He said the event would examine methods of nuclear material collection and security in locations worldwide where a broader international effort is necessary. Abraham is scheduled to travel to Moscow tomorrow and is expected to sign a bilateral agreement with Russia formalizing elements of the initiative involving that country. “We are very close to a government-to-government agreement to go from an ad hoc to a more formalized and very systematic program to retrieve fresh and spent fuel and convert reactors to work without them,” the secretary said, as reported by the Financial Times today. Back to top       IAEA Faces Hurdles in Studying Reported North Korea-Libya Uranium Link By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The International Atomic Energy Agency board is unlikely to take action at its next meeting in response to reports that North Korea was the source of uranium hexafluoride surrendered this year by Libya, Western diplomats said today from Vienna (see GSN, May 25). Members of the global nuclear underground led by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan indicated to IAEA inspectors that North Korea supplied 1.7 metric tons of uranium hexafluoride that Libya turned over this year to the United States, the New York Times reported this week. The handover was part of an ongoing Libyan effort to come clean about long-hidden WMD programs. The United States said it is investigating the reported link to North Korea but has not weighed in publicly on whether the Times report was accurate. Although North Korea’s nuclear program is on the agenda for the next IAEA Board of Governors’ meeting, set to begin June 14 in Vienna, diplomats stressed that inspectors cannot enter North Korea to conduct sampling that might link North Korean uranium to the Libyan material. North Korea has withdrawn from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and barred official outside inspection of its nuclear activities. One diplomat said the uranium hexafluoride is not likely to be mentioned in a report on Libya that IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei is expected to submit to the 35-country board within the next week. The matter would be addressed in ElBaradei’s report if the agency addressed it at all, but the impossibility of verification in North Korea would probably prevent the agency from pointing the finger at Pyongyang, the diplomat said. Investigation of Khan’s network is useful in generating “leads” on secret nuclear activity, the diplomat said, but verification would be needed to show the uranium was not produced in a third country, such as Pakistan, before making its way to Libya via North Korea. One diplomat indicated the report would contain new revelations about Libya’s programs, while another said Libya has given the agency new information about the sources of its nuclear material that would probably not be included in the report. The board’s discussion of Libya is likely to be largely positive, said one of the diplomats. “They’ve really cracked open a program and told us just about everything we want to know,” the diplomat said. The New York Times reported that the inspectors found the uranium hexafluoride was enriched to about 1 percent uranium 235, compared with .7 percent in natural uranium and 90 percent in typical bomb fuel. The Financial Times today quoted U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Stephen Rademaker as saying that “if some enrichment had taken place, that would be alarming, because it would suggest [North Korea] had begun the process of enrichment.” North Korea has recently sought to demonstrate what it calls a plutonium-based nuclear “deterrent” while denying it has a parallel uranium-based nuclear weapon program. Back to top       Iran, Russia Near Deal on Spent Fuel Iran is set to sign an agreement with Russia promising to return spent fuel from a nuclear reactor built with assistance from Moscow, a senior Russian official said yesterday (see GSN, May 25). Russia’s Atomic Energy Agency chief Alexander Rumyantsev said the two countries would sign the pact when he visits Iran this summer. “During this trip we plan to sign an additional protocol on the return of spent nuclear fuel to Russia for storage and processing,” Rumyantsev said. Russia has continued construction of the $800 million reactor at Bushehr despite U.S. opposition. The fuel repatriation agreement is Russia’s effort to alleviate U.S. concerns that Iran could extract plutonium from spent fuel for use in a nuclear bomb. Meanwhile, Iran is still some way from mastering the full nuclear fuel cycle, Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s former representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said yesterday. “Iran has achieved some 60 to 70 percent of the technology needed for a full fuel cycle,” Salehi said. “We need at least 10 years to feed the Bushehr nuclear plant with the fuel,” he added. Russia would begin shipping fuel to Iran to start up the Bushehr reactor after the agreement is signed. Spent fuel would be returned to a facility in Siberia after approximately 10 years of use. Western diplomats in Moscow said those years would allow Iran to acquire the necessary technology to make bombs. Russia has said it would take much longer to do so (Reuters/Dawn, May 26). Back to top

U.S. Federal Judge Expresses Doubt Over Government Information on Safety of Anthrax Vaccine U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan said yesterday that he had doubts as to whether the U.S. government could prove that the anthrax vaccine required for military personnel is safe, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, Jan. 8). Last year, six servicemembers filed a lawsuit seeking an end to mandatory anthrax vaccinations on the basis that the inoculations posed health risks. In late December, Sullivan determined that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had never approved the vaccine used to protect against inhalational anthrax and temporarily suspended the vaccination program. The program has since been restarted. During a hearing on the lawsuit yesterday, Sullivan described the government’s review of the anthrax vaccine as “one of the most jumbled, confusing” processes that he had ever seen, the Post reported. He also questioned why the FDA ruled that the vaccine was safe for use against inhalational anthrax 18 years after it was first proposed for that use, but just one week after the vaccination program was suspended, according to the Post. John Michels, a lawyer for the six servicemembers, said during yesterday’s hearing that the FDA only issued the ruling to protect the vaccination program. Deputy Associate Attorney General Brian Boyle said, however, that the agency’s ruling was based on science (Carol Leonnig, Washington Post, May 26). Back to top

Testing Confirms Sarin in Iraqi Roadside Bomb A U.S. laboratory confirmed that a roadside bomb found earlier this month in Iraq contained sarin, a U.S. defense official said yesterday (see GSN, May 18). The presence of sarin in the bomb, which was made from an artillery shell, had been earlier detected through less reliable field-testing, according to the Associated Press. The U.S. military has placed a high priority on determining the origin of the shell, which was designed to disperse the nerve agent, the defense official said. There were no markings on the shell to indicate that it contained chemical weapons, military officials said (Associated Press/USA Today, May 26). Back to top       Contractor Negotiating Permit for Chemical Munitions Destruction at Blue Grass Depot The chemical weapons disposal contractor for the Blue Grass Army Depot in Kentucky is negotiating with state and federal environmental agencies to determine how much of the chemical stockpile could be destroyed before the company seeks a full operating permit, the Richmond Register reported today (see GSN, Jan. 26). Bechtel Parsons Blue Grass has applied for a limited Research Development and Demonstration permit. “We proposed that all the GB [a nerve agent also called sarin] munitions could be disposed during the RD and D period,” Bechtel environmental manager Tom Kurkjy said Monday.  The GB munitions account for 70 percent of the total stockpile at the depot, Kurkjy added. The remainder of the stockpile is comprised of VX nerve agent, none of which would be processed under the demonstration permit, according to the Register. The GB munitions — M55 rockets, M56 warheads and M426 projectiles — would be destroyed on an accelerating schedule under the demonstration permit. During the first two weeks, four rockets or warheads and six projectiles would be destroyed every hour, and disposal would peak from the 25th to the 30th weeks with 40 rockets or warheads and 15 projectiles destroyed each hour. The Kentucky Department for Environmental Protection is concerned that processing more than half of the GB stockpile without a full permit would be viewed by the public as excessive, said April Webb of department’s Hazardous Waste division. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said the hourly limit on weapons disposal under the demonstration permit — 880 pounds — would be exceeded during later stages of destruction (Ryan Garrett, Richmond Register, May 26). Back to top       Saint Kitts and Nevis Joins Chemical Weapons Convention Saint Kitts and Nevis last week formally joined the Chemical Weapons Convention, according to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (see GSN, May 25). Saint Kitts and Nevis deposited its instrument of ratification to the United Nations on May 21 and the treaty’s provisions will enter into force for the country on June 20.  To date, 164 countries have joined the treaty (OPCW release, May 26). Back to top

Congress Could Shift Missile Defense Funding Congress is set to shift some missile defense funds for fiscal 2005 to near-term efforts, Inside Missile Defense reported today (see GSN, May 21). The defense authorization bill passed in the House last week and the Senate Armed Services Committee’s bill — on which debate will continue after the Memorial Day holiday — include budget reductions that would reformulate some missile defense projects into short-term efforts, Capitol Hill staffers said. The Senate panel proposed a $200 million cut to the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, but otherwise largely approved the Bush administration’s $9.2 billion missile defense budget. However, the KEI cuts in the Senate version of the bill are substantially deeper than the $177 million House reduction across the board on Missile Defense Agency programs. The two versions of the appropriations bill will have to be reconciled, and some sources say an agreement is unlikely until perhaps late summer. The Defense Department is also expected to present its appeals to the reduction proposals (Jeremy Feiler, Inside Missile Defense, May 26). Back to top       Additional U.S.-Russian Joint Missile Defense Projects Needed, Weldon Says The United States is considering several projects to help increase Russian cooperation in missile defense efforts, U.S. Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) said yesterday (see GSN, May 21). Weldon is the leader of a U.S. delegation of lawmakers and Missile Defense Agency officials that has traveled to Moscow, according to the Associated Press. He said yesterday that the missile defense projects being looked at range “from the use of Russian radar systems to the potential involvement of Russia in targeting and other aspects of missile defense” (Anneli Nerman, Associated Press/KDKA.com, May 25).     Back to top

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