NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer (shown last month) joined other international leaders this week in a tabletop exercise simulating an al-Qaeda nuclear attack on NATO headquarters (AFP photo/Thierry Monasse). International Officials Conduct Al-Qaeda Nuclear Attack Simulation By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — After participating yesterday in an exercise involving a simulated nuclear attack by al-Qaeda in Brussels, European government and international organization leaders today called for a series of measures to prevent terrorists from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. “The threat of catastrophic terrorism is not confined to the United States or Russia or the Middle East. The new terrorist movements seem willing to use unlimited violence and cause massive casualties. Europe is both a target and a base for such terrorists,” said European Union foreign policy head Javier Solana, a participant in the exercise...Full Story

North Korea Says it Won’t Transfer Nuclear Materials, Wants U.S. Friendship North Korea does not plan to transfer its nuclear materials to others and wants a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, according to North Korean officials who met recently with a U.S. expert in Pyongyang (see GSN, May 3)...Full Story

Last VX Bulk Containers in Utah Destroyed The Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal facility in Utah has completed destruction of 632 bulk containers filled with VX nerve agent stored at the U.S. Army’s Deseret Chemical Depot, the Salt Lake Tribune reported today (see GSN, April 23)...Full Story

	Tuesday, May 4, 2004

U.S. Senator Defends Pentagon’s Role in Prewar Iraq Intelligence Process By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Senator Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) yesterday defended the role of two U.S. Defense Department organizations in the analysis of intelligence on Iraq prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom, refuting charges that the organizations helped to exaggerate the threat posed by Iraq’s alleged prewar WMD efforts (see GSN, March 12). Following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Undersecretary of Defense Douglas Feith created two organizations within the Pentagon to analyze terrorism-related intelligence — the Policy Counterterrorism Evaluation Group (PCEG) and later the Office of Special Plans. Critics have charged that the two outfits were established to bypass the traditional intelligence process and that they provided the Bush administration with inaccurate intelligence on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. In a speech yesterday hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Kyl defended and praised the activities of the two Pentagon organizations. “Criticism of the intelligence community for its lack of imagination and initiative has been withering. That’s why it is so curious that some of these same critics have savagely attacked a small office in the Defense Department that appeared to exercise precisely the kind of initiative and ‘outside the box’ inquiry that all agree is so sorely needed,” he said of the Policy Counterterrorism Evaluation Group. According to Kyl, the office never had the ability to collect its own intelligence, and instead was responsible for examining previously gathered terrorism-related information. The PCEG “mandate was to study a range of terrorist organizations and state sponsors,” Kyl said, adding that it was never responsible for examining prewar Iraq’s suspected WMD efforts, nor was it focused on examining information solely related to Iraq or al-Qaeda. “The forming of the group was nothing unusual, and indeed, given that the United States found itself suddenly in the midst of a war unlike any other it had ever previously fought, it was useful to explore what the battle would involve,” he said. Kyl described the Office of Special Plans as simply “one of many regional offices in the DOD policy organization.” The office was not involved in intelligence collection, he said, and instead worked on several Iraq-related tasks such as aiding the opposition to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein; helping to develop U.N. Resolution 1441, which re-established the U.N. inspections regime in Iraq prior to the war; and aiding the development of postwar reconstruction planning. Kyl denied that the office oversaw the intelligence-gathering activities of the Iraqi National Congress. The former Iraqi opposition group has come under heavy criticism for providing now-discredited information on Iraq’s prewar WMD efforts. While defending the Pentagon’s intelligence analysis efforts, Kyl yesterday also attacked critics of the Policy Counterterrorism Evaluation Group and Office of Special Plans. Charges that the two organizations improperly collected and analyzed intelligence, he said, “have called into question the integrity and motivations of honorable individuals” and required the Pentagon to needlessly divert its efforts away from the war on terrorism. Kyl also accused critics of the two organizations of “bigoted overtones” in their allegations, noting that many of the senior Bush administration officials who have been dubbed “neoconservatives” are Jewish. Most importantly, he said, misdirected criticism of the two Pentagon organizations works to “perpetuate the risk-adverse environment in our intelligence community.” “Policy-makers and intelligence officials should discuss and even debate with each other because the CIA is not, nor should it be, an ‘ivory tower.’ The bottom line is that no one has a monopoly on facts, let alone wisdom, not even the intelligence community,” Kyl said. Back to top       Greater Accountability Needed in Intelligence Community, U.S. Senator Says The head of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence yesterday accused the U.S. intelligence community of being “in denial” over its failure to prevent the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and its misjudgment of Iraq’s prewar WMD efforts, according to the Los Angeles Times (see GSN, April 22). Lawmakers are concerned over the fact that no intelligence personnel have “been disciplined, let alone fired,” for various information-gathering failures over the past three years, committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) said during a speech at Kansas State University. “We have found serious failures to share information before 9/11 and in the prewar work on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. Where is the accountability?” he said. One factor, according to Roberts, might be “an institutional inability to recognize or admit there are problems. Simply put, the (intelligence) community is in denial over the full extent of the shortcomings of its work on Iraq and 9/11.” Roberts said he does not believe U.S. inspectors will find weapons of mass destruction stockpiles in Iraq. A CIA spokesman yesterday refused to comment on Roberts’ criticisms (Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times, May 4). Back to top

International Officials Conduct Al-Qaeda Nuclear Attack Simulation By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — After participating yesterday in an exercise involving a simulated nuclear attack by al-Qaeda in Brussels, European government and international organization leaders today called for a series of measures to prevent terrorists from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. “The threat of catastrophic terrorism is not confined to the United States or Russia or the Middle East. The new terrorist movements seem willing to use unlimited violence and cause massive casualties. Europe is both a target and a base for such terrorists,” said European Union foreign policy head Javier Solana, a participant in the exercise. The recommended steps include a “global cleanout” of highly enriched uranium at research sites (see GSN, April 15), the acceleration of efforts to consolidate and secure dangerous nuclear materials and stockpiled Russian nuclear weapons (see GSN, March 11), greater transparency and faster destruction of tactical nuclear weapons (see GSN, Oct. 23, 2003), more funds for chemical weapon destruction, better international cooperation on reducing the risk of biological terrorism, better export controls, a strengthening of the international nonproliferation regime, and better information-sharing among the world’s countries and international organizations. NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer helped convene the tabletop exercise in Brussels, in which Solana, former top U.N. weapons inspector Rolf Ekeus and more than 50 other current and former officials discussed two phases of the attack scenario: In “move 1,” they were presented with simulated intelligence indicating al-Qaeda had acquired highly enriched uranium and was planning an attack in Europe; in “move 2,” they learned of the fictional, 10-kiloton nuclear explosion at NATO headquarters. The exercise concluded with a simulated news report that al-Qaeda head Osama bin Laden claimed responsibility for the attack, said to have killed 40,000 people and injured 300,000, and an intelligence briefing indicating International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors had determined that a significant quantity of uranium was missing from a site in Belarus. The exercise was unique in Europe in that it focused on prevention, not response, and in that a broad range of senior officials participated, said Michele Flournoy, a Center for Strategic and International Studies international security expert who helped prepare the event. Contacted today by telephone in Brussels, Flournoy said the prevention focus was natural, given the attack scenario. “The main experience of both move 1 and move 2 is that there are very few options and no great options in the move-1 phase ― once the material is out, you’ve got to be very lucky to find it ― [and that in] the second move, there are just no good options,” Flournoy said. “The only good option,” she said, “is prevention, and yet we aren’t doing enough.” Calls for transparency and destruction of tactical nuclear weapon stockpiles, in particular, have “a lot of resonance in Europe,” Flournoy said, because “the U.S. and Russia really haven’t touched their tactical stockpiles.” “The most effective, least expensive way to prevent nuclear terrorism,” added former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, who participated in the exercise, “is to lock down and secure weapons and fissile materials in every country and in every facility that has them. No terrorist can launch a nuclear attack without weapon-grade material: plutonium or highly enriched uranium.” Flournoy said two major themes emerged from the discussions. In light of the March rail attack in Madrid, she said, “There was a much greater sense of seriousness and urgency in terms of considering the threat of nuclear terrorism in Europe and quite a good discussion of actions to take to prevent such a thing from happening.” “Especially post-Madrid, people in Europe accept the notion or agree with the notion that al-Qaeda and other jihadist terrorists are targeting Europe as well as the United States and that their goals are such that creating mass casualties is seen as an important means. I think that there’s a broad understanding that if they were to acquire WMD, they would certainly use it,” Flournoy said (see GSN, April 30). “The other big theme,” she said, “was that it could actually happen in Europe. There are materials that are vulnerable to diversion or theft in Europe. There are cells in Europe; Europe has become a base of operations for many of these groups. There are also targets in Europe that are highly symbolic or have high political value from an al-Qaeda or jihadist perspective.” The Strengthening the Global Partnership project, which is led by the Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, sponsored the exercise. [EDITOR’S NOTE: Sam Nunn is chief executive officer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative.  NTI is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by National Journal Group.] Back to top       North Korea Says it Won’t Transfer Nuclear Materials, Wants U.S. Friendship North Korea does not plan to transfer its nuclear materials to others and wants a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, according to North Korean officials who met recently with a U.S. expert in Pyongyang (see GSN, May 3). Long-time North Korea analyst Selig Harrison, director of the Asia program at the Center for International Policy in Washington, reported on his four-day talks with North Korean officials in the Financial Times. “Let me make clear that we denounce al-Qaeda, we oppose all forms of terrorism and we will never transfer our nuclear material to others. Our nuclear program is solely for our self-defense,” said North Korean Foreign Minister Paik Nam Soon. “We denounce al-Qaeda for the barbaric attack of 9/11, which was a terrible tragedy and inflicted a great shock to America. Bush is using that shock to turn the American people against us, but the truth is that we want and need your friendship,” he added. Korean People’s Army spokesman Gen. Ri Chan Bok said North Korea’s “nuclear deterrent” is targeted at the United States, not North Korea’s neighbors. “We don’t mind the possession of nuclear weapons by Russia and China, because they’re not a threat to us,” Ri said. “Although Japan is not friendly, I don’t know whether Japan is developing nuclear weapons or not, but in any case, our nuclear deterrent is not against Japan or anyone else, just against the United States,” he added. Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye Gwan repeated his country’s offer to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for support including energy aid, an end to U.S. economic sanctions and North Korea’s removal from the U.S. list of nations that sponsor terrorism. He said that a “freeze” meant that “we would not enlarge the stockpile,” and that “the amount frozen would depend on what the United States is prepared to do.” Kim would not give specific information about North Korea’s nuclear arsenal (see GSN, April 29). “That’s a confidential military issue,” he said. “But remember that the bomb dropped by the U.S. at Nagasaki was made after four months of preparation. It’s now a half century later, and we have more up-to-date technologies, so you can come to your own conclusions on this matter,” he added. Kim Yong Nam, president of the Supreme People’s Assembly and leader Kim Jong Il’s second in command, said he believes U.S. President George W. Bush is delaying resolution of the nuclear standoff due to preoccupation with Iraq and the November elections. “But time is not on his side,” Kim Yong Nam said. “We are going to use this time 100 percent effectively to strengthen our nuclear deterrent both quantitatively and qualitatively. Why doesn’t he accept our proposal to dismantle our program completely and verifiably through simultaneous steps by both sides?” he added (Selig Harrison, Financial Times, May 4). Meanwhile, South Korean officials traveled to Pyongyang for three days of cabinet-level discussions beginning tomorrow on the nuclear standoff, the Associated Press reported. South Korean Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun said he would “advise (North Korea) that results must come out of the third round of six-nation talks” (Soo-Jeong Lee, Associated Press/Kansas City Star, May 4). In addition, China’s special envoy for North Korea, Ning Fuqui, met with U.S. officials in Washington to discuss the working group scheduled to meet May 12 in Beijing (Agence France-Presse,/SpaceWar.com, May 3). Back to top       EU “Invested” in Relationship With Iran, Wants More Transparency on Nuclear Program The European Union said yesterday that Iran must show greater transparency in complying with nuclear inspectors if Tehran wishes to resume commercial ties with Europe (see GSN, April 29). That message came as Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi met with EU officials in Brussels, the London Independent reported. “We have invested in the relationship and we believe that Iran is a very important partner and, frankly, we are a little disappointed with progress on the nuclear issue,” said one EU official.  Kharazi said earlier accusations by the United States, exiled Iranian dissident groups and others that Iran is running a covert nuclear weapons program were “baseless.” “(The) IAEA has been working with us very closely in different sites and they are continuing their inspections,” Kharazi said (Stephen Castle, London Independent, May 4). Back to top       China, Pakistan Are Set to Sign Nuclear Deal Today China and Pakistan are expected today to sign an agreement on the construction of a nuclear power plant in the Pakistani city of Chashma, southwest of Islamabad, a senior Pakistani official said (see GSN, Nov. 3, 2003). The agreement on the construction of the 300-megawatt reactor is set to be signed during a ceremony in Islamabad overseen by Pakistani Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali, the senior official said. The official also said that Pakistani engineers would be more involved in the construction of the new plant than during past efforts. This plant would be the second built in Pakistan with support from China (Munir Ahmed, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, May 4). Back to top       Scientists Say Bunker-Busting Nuclear Weapons Would Be Unreliable Bunker-buster nuclear weapons would be more likely to cause tens of thousands of deaths above ground than to destroy underground facilities, two scientists told the National Academies of Science, Defense News reported yesterday (see GSN, April 29). Thomas Cochran, director of the nuclear program of the Natural Resources Defense Council, made his presentation on April 27 with Robert Nelson, a nuclear weapons expert at the Council on Foreign Relations (see GSN, Aug. 11, 2003). Using the example of dropping a nuclear bomb on the National Academy’s Washington headquarters building, Cochran said a bomb would need to dig down 100 meters before exploding for the earth to contain the blast and limit casualties to about 15,000. He added that bomb designers have so far been able to design weapons that penetrate only 15 meters. A five-kiloton bomb exploding three meters underground could kill 140,000 people, while the same weapon could kill up to 350,000 people at 50 meters because of the added debris created by the explosion, Cochran said. “We don’t see any value to continuing this line of research” or of developing the bunker buster, Cochran concluded (William Matthews, Defense News, May 3). Back to top       Additional Protocols Take Effect in EU Countries Additional Protocols to the nuclear safeguards agreements of 15 European Union countries entered into force on Friday, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (see GSN, April 1). The protocols, which provide the agency with improved verification tools for nuclear nonproliferation commitments, were implemented for France, the United Kingdom and the 13 non-nuclear weapon states of the European Union (IAEA release, April 30). Back to top

Last VX Bulk Containers in Utah Destroyed The Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal facility in Utah has completed destruction of 632 bulk containers filled with VX nerve agent stored at the U.S. Army’s Deseret Chemical Depot, the Salt Lake Tribune reported today (see GSN, April 23). Under the terms of the Chemical Weapons Convention, the depot cannot declare its container destruction campaign complete until it processes 12 additional containers filled with VX hydrolysate, a byproduct of chemical neutralization. Meanwhile, technicians on Sunday detected a mustard agent leak, which was confined to a storage igloo in the stockpile area of the depot (Dawn House, Salt Lake Tribune, May 4). Back to top       Alleged Chemical Smugglers Face Dutch Prosecution Dutch authorities have begun prosecuting two men on charges that they illegally exported chemical weapons materials and technology to Pakistan, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, Jan. 16). While the two men are not in custody, they have been ordered to appear before a “procedural hearing” next week, said a spokesman for the prosecutor’s office in Haarlem. The Dutch news agency ANP reported that the exported chemicals could be used to produce mustard gas. The suspects allegedly failed to obtain authorization from the Dutch government before exporting the material, AFP reported. The two men are also suspected of being connected to top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who has confessed to transferring nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea, AFP reported. One suspect, Henk Slebos, attended university with Khan and was convicted in 1985 for illegally shipping nuclear technology to Pakistan, according to the Dutch newspaper NRC-Handelsblad (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, May 3). Back to top       Chemical Destruction Delayed at Newport Modifications at the Newport Chemical Agent Disposal Facility in Indiana would delay the start date for VX nerve agent neutralization from June to sometime between July and September, said site project manager Jeff Brubaker, the Terre Haute, Ind., Tribune-Star reported Saturday (see GSN, April 15). Brubaker said plastic components of the Chemical Agents Transfer System would be replaced with steel pumps due to concerns about the compatibility of the plastic with the nerve agent. The system would be used to move the nerve agent from steel cylinders to another container before neutralization. “A number of changes are being made to enhance the plant maintainability for extended operations,” Brubaker said. “The modifications are expected to be completed in mid-May,” he added (Patricia Pastore, Tribune-Star, May 1). Back to top       Sentencing Scheduled Today in Texas Cyanide Case A Texas man is scheduled to be sentenced today after pleading guilty to possessing a large stockpile of cyanide, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, March 15). William Krar, 63, pleaded guilty last year to one count of possessing a dangerous chemical weapon. While he could be sentenced to life in prison, officials have said he is more likely to receive a sentence of less than 20 years under federal guidelines, AP reported (Associated Press/Houston Chronicle, May 4). Back to top

Pyongyang Reportedly Builds Missile Bases North Korea is reportedly close to completing construction on two underground bases for new ballistic missiles with ranges of up to 4,000 kilometers, Agence France-Presse reported today (see GSN, April 9). The South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo reported that construction is about 80 percent complete at the two bases, according to AFP. A South Korean intelligence official reportedly said the two bases were located at Yangdok, about 80 kilometers east of Pyongyang, and in Hochon in South Hamgyong province. “U.S. intelligence satellites have spotted about 10 new ballistic missiles and mobile launching pads kept at the two places,” the intelligence official was quoted by Chosun Ilbo as saying (Agence France-Presse/Channel News Asia, May 4). Back to top

Dirty Bomb Death Estimates Too Low, Researcher Says A former chief scientist for the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee said yesterday that potential casualties resulting from a “dirty bomb” attack have been underestimated, USA Today reported (see GSN, April 21). During a meeting of the American Physical Society in Denver, Peter Zimmerman of King’s College in London discussed a National Defense University report that estimated potential deaths caused by a dirty bomb — a weapon that combines conventional explosives and radioactive material — based on a 1987 Brazilian incident in which cesium powder was accidentally released (see GSN, Jan. 13). While the Brazilian incident caused five deaths, Zimmerman said that a release of a similar amount of radioactive material by a dirty bomb would result in about 150 deaths from radioactive contamination. Past estimates based on the 1987 incident did not take into account people inhaling or ingesting radioactive dust, he said (Dan Vergano, USA Today, May 4).    Back to top

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