Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

    Issue for Thursday, June 3, 2004

    Week in Review

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  terrorism  
U.S. to Discuss Defending Straits From Terrorists Full Story
Recent Stories

  wmd  
CIA Director Tenet Resigns Full Story
Russia to Call at G-8 Summit for Increased Commitment to Nonproliferation Effort, Russian Expert Says Full Story
Recent Stories

  nuclear  
U.S. Says Iran Hiding Nuclear Plans; Iran Leaves Open Possibility of Enriching Uranium Full Story
U.S. Plans Subcritical Nuclear Experiment “Armando” Full Story
Third Round of Six-Nation Nuclear Talks on North Korea’s Nuclear Efforts Set to Begin June 23 Full Story
IAEA Says Nuclear Terrorism “Main Threat” to States Full Story
Recent Stories

  biological  
Senator Backs Redirection of Bioterrorism Funding Full Story
Study Finds California Not Ready for Bioterror Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile1  
China Working to Modernize, Increase Its Ballistic Missile Forces, Pentagon Says Full Story
Recent Stories

  missile2  
U.S. Auditors Review Boost-Phase Defense Effort Full Story
Recent Stories

  other  
Radioactive Material Smuggling Reportedly Rising Full Story
Recent Stories

 

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Even a disinterested observer must now ask, what is it that the Iranians are so intent on hiding?
—U.S. Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Kenneth Brill, on a new IAEA report assessing Iran’s nuclear activities.


CIA Director George Tenet, shown testifying on Capitol Hill in March, delivered his letter of resignation today to President George W. Bush (AFP Pnoto/Luke Frazza).
CIA Director George Tenet, shown testifying on Capitol Hill in March, delivered his letter of resignation today to President George W. Bush (AFP Pnoto/Luke Frazza).
CIA Director Tenet Resigns

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — CIA Director George Tenet submitted his resignation today for “personal reasons,” U.S. President George W. Bush announced (see GSN, June 1).

Bush announced Tenet’s resignation shortly before leaving Washington to travel to Europe. Tenet will stay on as CIA director until mid-July, after which his deputy, John McLaughlin, will take over as acting director, Bush said...Full Story

U.S. Says Iran Hiding Nuclear Plans; Iran Leaves Open Possibility of Enriching Uranium

Iran continues to hide its development of nuclear weapons, the United States charged yesterday after the release of a report critical of Iran’s activities by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 2)...Full Story

China Working to Modernize, Increase Its Ballistic Missile Forces, Pentagon Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — China is continuing to modernize and increase its ballistic missile arsenal, and may deploy up to 60 ICBMs capable of hitting targets in the United States by the end of the decade, the U.S. Defense Department stated last week in an annual report to Congress (see GSN, July 31, 2003)...Full Story

Current Issue Thursday, June 3, 2004
terrorism

U.S. to Discuss Defending Straits From Terrorists


U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is scheduled to begin a two-day visit to Singapore tomorrow, during which he is expected to discuss a Pentagon proposal to help protect the Malacca Straits against terrorist attacks, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, April 6).

Rumsfeld is expected to detail the proposal during a security conference set to involve officials from 20 Asian nations. The plan involves the United States providing intelligence to countries surrounding the straits, conducting joint patrols and offering to send in U.S. Marine forces if necessary, AP reported.

The United States and Singapore, which supports the proposal, are concerned that terrorist groups might attempt to conduct attacks on commercial shipping, including oil and chemical tankers, in the straits. 

“Al-Qaeda’s attacks on commercial shipping in Yemen and the Arabian Sea and planned or attempted attacks in several straits … should be ample demonstration that our concerns are not merely theoretical,” U.S. Deputy Assistant of State Matthew Daley said.

Indonesia and Malaysia, the other two countries bordering the straits, oppose the U.S. plan, according to AP.

“I think we can look after our own area,” Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi was quoted as saying last month (Yeoh En-Lai, Associated Press, June 3).


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wmd

CIA Director Tenet Resigns

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — CIA Director George Tenet submitted his resignation today for “personal reasons,” U.S. President George W. Bush announced (see GSN, June 1).

Bush announced Tenet’s resignation shortly before leaving Washington to travel to Europe. Tenet will stay on as CIA director until mid-July, after which his deputy, John McLaughlin, will take over as acting director, Bush said.

“I send my blessings to George and his family. I look forward to working with him until the time he leaves the agency, and I wish him all the very best,” he said.

Bush also praised Tenet for his seven-year tenure as head of the CIA.

“George Tenet is the … kind of public … servant you like to work with.  He’s strong. He’s resolute.  He’s served his nation as the director for seven years. He has been a strong and able leader at the agency. He’s been a … strong leader in the war on terror, and I will miss him,” Bush said.

Tenet himself announced his resignation to CIA staff this morning.

“I did not make this decision quickly or easily. But I know in my heart that the time is right to move on to the next phase of our lives,” he said.

During his tenure, Tenet said, the CIA made improvements in a number of areas, including “rebuilding” the clandestine service, expanding the number of analysts and developing new intelligence gathering technologies and training facilities.

“This I say with exceptional pride: The Central Intelligence Agency and the American intelligence community are stronger now than they were when I became DCI [director of central intelligence] seven years ago, and they will be stronger tomorrow than they are today,” he said. 

Representative Rush Holt (D-N.J.), a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said today that Tenet’s resignation would aid efforts to reform the greater U.S. intelligence community.

“As in so many other policy areas, the Bush administration has denied its intelligence mistakes and refused to take responsibility for them.  It’s about time that there is some accountability for these failures,” Holt said in a press statement.

According to intelligence experts, a number of recent intelligence-related controversies may have played a role in Tenet’s decision to resign. Chief among them is the continuing controversy surrounding U.S. intelligence on Iraq’s alleged prewar efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. Time reported this week that the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, which has been conducting one of several inquiries into the issue of prewar intelligence, is set to soon release a report that is highly critical of both the CIA and Tenet.

Tenet’s resignation might be “a way of falling on his sword for the administration … and to take away a target for the committee’s criticism, ” said Steven Aftergood, director of the Federation of American Scientists’ Project on Government Secrecy.

In addition, the revelation made in a recent book by Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward that Tenet claimed the intelligence on Iraq’s prewar WMD efforts was a “slam dunk” might have embarrassed him, Aftergood said. “It made him look foolish,” he added.

Another factor, according to experts, might be the recent reports that Ahmad Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, may have passed on U.S. intelligence information to Iran, including that the United States was able to break Iranian intelligence codes. According to reports today, the FBI has begun to administer polygraph tests to civilian Defense Department employees as part of its investigation into the leak.

Even though a Pentagon employee is suspected of passing the information to Chalabi, the CIA is ultimately responsible for protecting intelligence sources and methods, Aftergood said. The severity of the leak may have damaged Tenet’s standing within the Bush administration, he said.

Chalabi and his former opposition group have also come under heavy fire for providing inaccurate, and possibly intentionally misleading, information on Iraq’s WMD efforts (see GSN, May 24).  

John Pike, executive director of the GlobalSecurity.org think tank, said today, though, that the CIA had long been suspicious of Chalabi.

He said that a possible factor in Tenet’s resignation might have been the debate over intelligence reform, and a proposal to create a national director of intelligence. If such a position were created, and Tenet had chosen to remain as head of the CIA, it would have appeared as if he had been passed over for the higher spot, Pike said. If Tenet had sought appointment as national director of intelligence under such a scenario, he would probably have faced grueling confirmation hearings in the Senate, Pike added (see GSN, April 22).

Another intelligence-related controversy that has recently rearisen in the news is the Justice Department’s investigation into the public leak last year of the name and CIA status of the wife of former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson, who publicly criticized some of the WMD-related evidence the Bush administration offered to justify the invasion of Iraq. Reports state that Bush has recently consulted with a lawyer about representing him if the president is questioned as part of a grand jury investigation into the leak (see GSN, Feb. 26).

“It’s a target-rich environment,” Pike said of the various controversies surrounding the CIA and Tenet.

Pike also said that the timing of Tenet’s resignation might be linked to the 2004 presidential election in November. “The window for leaving the administration is rapidly closing,” he said.

However, Tenet’s stated reason for leaving the administration — “personal reasons” — cannot be wholly discounted, according to Pike.

“Maybe his wife got tired of all this foolishness and wanted to get rich,” Pike said.

In his remarks this morning, Tenet also denied that there were hidden motives behind his decision to step down.

“While Washington and the media will put many different faces on the decision, it was a personal decision and had only one basis in fact — the well being of my wonderful family. Nothing more and nothing less,” he said.


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Russia to Call at G-8 Summit for Increased Commitment to Nonproliferation Effort, Russian Expert Says


Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to call on the other leaders of the Group of Eight global economic powers next week to strengthen their commitment to an initiative launched in 2002 to fund nonproliferation projects, a Russian analyst said yesterday (see GSN, April 27).

In 2002, the G-8 launched the Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction. Under the effort, the G-8 countries — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — agreed to pledge $20 billion over 10 years, primarily for projects in Russia. To date, however, only a small portion of the pledged funding has gone to actual nonproliferation work within Russia, said Daniil Kobyakov of the PIR Center in Moscow. He also said that a large portion of the funding has gone to foreign rather than Russian subcontractors and that there is a lack of proper auditing for the projects.

The G-8 summit begins Monday on Sea Island, Ga. (Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press, June 2).


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nuclear

U.S. Says Iran Hiding Nuclear Plans; Iran Leaves Open Possibility of Enriching Uranium


Iran continues to hide its development of nuclear weapons, the United States charged yesterday after the release of a report critical of Iran’s activities by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, June 2).

Iran has refused to cooperate fully with the agency, a move that “fits a long-term pattern of denial and deception that can only be designed to mask Iran’s military nuclear program,” said Kenneth Brill, U.S. ambassador to the agency. “Almost two years after the IAEA became aware of Iran’s covert nuclear program, and fully one year after the discovery of Iran’s attempts to conceal their work at the Kalaye Electric Co. (in Tehran), delayed access, inconsistent stories and unanswered questions continue to be the hallmark of Iranian cooperation with the agency,” he added.

“Even a disinterested observer must now ask, what is it that the Iranians are so intent on hiding?” Brill said.

The United States has sought to have Iran’s case taken to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions. However, diplomats and experts said no action is likely to soon be taken because Washington does not have a “smoking gun” proving that Iran is building nuclear weapons.

“The United States is stymied unless the IAEA can come up with some devastating revelation that Iran is lying or hiding something,” said London-based nonproliferation expert Gary Samore. 

Samore added that Iran may even be emboldened by its success in putting off the agency and could resume uranium enrichment (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/Washington Times, June 3).

Meanwhile, Iran’s top national security official, Hassan Rohani, said yesterday that the IAEA report indicated that scrutiny of his country’s nuclear activities was nearing an end and that Iran left open the possibility of resuming its uranium enrichment activities, the Associated Press reported.

“The report makes it clear that Iran’s nuclear activities are peaceful and there has been no diversion from the peaceful path,” Rohani said. “However, the report has some problems … (it) has touched upon cases that it should not,” he added. He also said the agency was getting hung up on technical details, according to the Associated Press.

Rohani acknowledged that Iran purchased components that could be used for advanced P-2 centrifuges, but indicated the parts were intended for P-1 centrifuges, which are not used for enriching uranium to weapon grade.

“We told the IAEA that we didn’t import P-2 centrifuge parts, except a magnet that can be used for production of both the less-advanced P-1 or advanced P-2 centrifuges,” Rohani said (Associated Press/USA Today, June 2).

Rohani also reiterated a warning to Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Agence France-Presse reported.

“I do not think Israel will make such a stupid move because it knows full well how we will respond,” Rohani said yesterday. “Our response will be painful to Israel,” he went on, but added that talk of an Israeli attack was “propaganda.”

Last month, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Iran was “probably the main existential threat” to Israel (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, June 2).


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U.S. Plans Subcritical Nuclear Experiment “Armando”


The latest U.S. subcritical nuclear experiment has been designed to help determine whether the United States can manufacture new plutonium pits that function like those of nuclear weapons tested more than a decade ago, according to Aviation Week & Space Technology (see GSN, May 25).

Expected to be conducted 1,000 feet underground in coming weeks at the Nevada Test Site, the latest in a series of subcritical tests — code named “Armando” — will be the 21st conducted under the Energy Department’s Stockpile Stewardship Program.

When then-President George H.W. Bush suspended U.S. nuclear testing in the early 1990s, the primary means of performance verification was eliminated. As U.S. policies at the time did not allow development of new nuclear weapons, it was understood that the existing stockpile would have to last indefinitely. Previously, any given type of weapon was expected to remain in the inventory for approximately 11 years before it was replaced.

The Stockpile Stewardship Program was launched in 1995 to keep the nuclear arsenal safe and functional without testing.

Subcritical experiments use small quantities of plutonium but are able to approximate the dynamics of a nuclear explosion.

“A ‘subcrit’ is a dynamic experiment in which plutonium does not achieve self-sustaining fission chain reaction,” said Ghazar Papazian, Los Alamos National Laboratory’s project director for Nevada Test Site activities. “Basically, we’re surrounding plutonium with high explosives to dynamically shock (the fissionable material) and better understand plutonium manufacturing and production issues — such as the effects of cleaning agents and welding,” he added.

While the primary purpose of subcritical experiments is to provide data for maintenance efforts, they also keep the Nevada Test site infrastructure “warm,” by training a new generation of scientists and experiment personnel, according to Aviation Week. Under a presidential directive, scientists must be ready to resume nuclear weapons testing 24-36 months after an order to resume.

“But that’s being moved up to 18 months in about a year,” Papazian said. “If an order comes, we have to be ready to conduct a test in 18 months. It has a cost — about $18-20 million to keep the doors open here — but the byproduct is readiness,” he added (William Scott, Aviation Week, May 31).


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Third Round of Six-Nation Nuclear Talks on North Korea’s Nuclear Efforts Set to Begin June 23


The next round of high-level, six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear programs is expected to begin on June 23, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, May 28).

South Korean and Japanese news reports on the schedule came shortly after South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said he expected another round of negotiations “before the end of this month.”

Sources close to the talks said the six parties would hold a three-day session in Beijing preceded by two days of preliminary negotiations by lower-level officials (Sang-Hun Choe, Associated Press/Pioneer Press, June 3).


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IAEA Says Nuclear Terrorism “Main Threat” to States


The potential for terrorists to acquire nuclear materials is the main security threat facing states today, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a report released Tuesday (see GSN, May 27).

The head of the IAEA Office of Nuclear Security, Anita Nilsson, said the agency aims to prevent terrorists from acquiring plutonium or highly enriched uranium for a nuclear or radiological weapon by focusing on four specific threats:

*         Theft of a nuclear weapon;

*         Theft of nuclear material;

*         Theft of other radioactive materials; and

*         Sabotage.

As part of its antiterrorism efforts, the agency has created a program to identify nations’ needs for additional or improved nuclear security. Countries requesting support from the International Nuclear Security Advisory Service would receive visits from experts who would assess deficiencies in the nation’s nuclear security. The assessment would “provide a platform for subsequent, more specific, nuclear security assistance, through IAEA programs or through bilateral assistance,” Nilsson said in a prepared statement.

If nuclear or radioactive material is stolen, Nilsson added, measures must be in place to combat trafficking in these materials. Some IAEA activities in this area include:

*         Safeguards — Under the auspices of the new initiative, the agency would provide recommendations to countries and facility operators on ways to improve control of nuclear material;

*         Training — the agency provides security training at international, regional and national levels; and

*         Equipment — the agency helps countries obtain equipment necessary for protection of nuclear and radiological materials.

In addition, the International Atomic Energy Agency is establishing a system to provide nuclear forensics support to help member states determine the origins of confiscated material, according to Nilsson (IAEA report, June 1).


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biological

Senator Backs Redirection of Bioterrorism Funding

By David McGlinchey

Government Executive

WASHINGTON — A senior Republican senator gave his approval Tuesday for the Health and Human Services Department to pull $55 million from state bioterrorism budgets and redirect the funding to protect individual cities and rapidly distribute vaccines throughout the U.S. Postal Service.

Public health groups and a senior Democratic senator say the move will severely hamper state bioterrorism preparedness efforts.

The plan was laid out in a May 19 letter from HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson to members of Congress. Department officials plan to take more than $1 million from each state to fund several other initiatives, such as biological defense programs in 21 of the nation’s largest cities; a Postal Service program to deliver medicines in the event of a biological attack; a biological weapons detection effort known as BioSense; and an expanded federal quarantine capacity. About $27 million would be put toward the city biological defense initiative. The Postal Service would receive $12 million.

“Public health officials will work closely with the United States Postal Service to test and implement procedures to use its expertise and capacity to distribute materials citywide in a short time period,” Thompson said in his letter. “$12 million will be provided to the USPS to pay for the training, supplies and equipment needed to assist these cities,” he added.

As the money was already allocated in a congressional appropriations bill, Thompson was required to explain the funding shift to Congress. He notified the Senate Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, which had until next week to approve or block the move. Subcommittee Chairman Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) indicated Tuesday that he would allow the plan to proceed.

“I have no objection at this time to your proposal ... to make specific and rapid improvements in readiness in areas where we have significant vulnerability,” Specter wrote.

The decision to move the funding was necessary “in a time of tight federal budgets,” according to Charles Robbins, a Specter spokesman.

The subcommittee’s ranking member, Senator Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), has protested the development of new proposals at the expense of existing homeland security programs.

“This just isn’t the right way to do it,” said Maureen Knightly, a Harkin spokeswoman. “The money should not be taken away from the states,” she said.

A broad assortment of public health advocacy groups has also opposed the move. The American Public Health Association, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, the National Association of City and County Health Officials, Trust for America’s Health, and the National Governors Association have all called on Congress to block the funding reallocation. Critics said the nation’s biological defenses are too important to face budget shortfalls and tough decisions. Several groups said the new proposals should be given their own line of funding and states should keep their fiscal 2004 bioterrorism money.

“Both are important and should be funded, it shouldn’t be an either-or proposition,” said Michael Earls, a spokesman for Trust for America’s Health. Last December, that organization released a report that found states are not yet ready to handle a bioterrorism incident.

“Shifting money from one preparedness initiative to another is not the solution for nationwide bioterrorism readiness, especially when states show ongoing areas of vulnerability,” Earls said.


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Study Finds California Not Ready for Bioterror


California’s public health system has made improvements in emergency planning for catastrophic events such as a smallpox outbreak, but it is poorly coordinated and “not uniformly capable of taking care of infectious disease outbreaks,” according to a report released yesterday by the RAND Corp. (see GSN, May 25).

“I suspect California is indicative of the rest of the country, particularly in terms of unevenness,” said RAND researcher Nicole Lurie, the report’s author. “If this happened in a lot of places at once, the state has limited resources to respond. ... Certainly in the beginning of this, people are on their own,” she added.

The report recommends that state lawmakers appoint a commission to pinpoint ways to strengthen California’s public health work force and to improve coordination on health issues between the state and local governments.

RAND also concluded that California would need an additional $96 million annually to help its 61 local public health systems respond adequately to bioterrorism and outbreaks of naturally occurring infectious disease.

The state’s fiscal difficulties “present an obstacle” to improvement efforts, and federal funds allocated for that purpose since Sept. 11, 2001, have not made their way to local governments in a timely manner, according to the think tank (Reuters, June 2).

There are no national standards on public health agencies’ preparation levels for bioterror, said Lurie, who added that she expects the United States to face a major infectious disease (Kristie Martinez, Associated Press, June 2).


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missile1

China Working to Modernize, Increase Its Ballistic Missile Forces, Pentagon Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — China is continuing to modernize and increase its ballistic missile arsenal, and may deploy up to 60 ICBMs capable of hitting targets in the United States by the end of the decade, the U.S. Defense Department stated last week in an annual report to Congress (see GSN, July 31, 2003).

Over the past year, China has increased its short-range ballistic missile arsenal from an estimated 450 missiles to 500, the report says, adding that Beijing’s focus on short-range missiles indicates that its arsenal of such systems is likely to “increase substantially” over the next few years. China is also continuing efforts to develop conventionally armed medium-range ballistic missiles, and probably will deploy such missiles “in the near future,” the report says.

China continues to modernize its arsenal of nuclear-capable ICBMs, according to the report. It says that Beijing is working to replace its estimated 20 CSS-4 Mod 1 ICBMs with a longer-range variant, and it is continuing development of the DF-31 ICBM, which is expected to begin deployment by the end of the decade. China is also working to develop two extended-range variants of the DF-31 — a solid-propellant, mobile ICBM — and the JL-2 solid-propellant submarine-launched ballistic missile, the report says. The JL-2 is expected to be deployed on a new ballistic missile submarine by 2010.

China could have 30 ICBMs capable of hitting the United States by next year, and 60 by 2010, the report states.

In addition, China is continuing efforts to develop a cruise missile that can be fired from land, and could establish units armed with such systems by 2010, according to the report.

The Pentagon report also says that China currently lacks the capability to attack satellite systems, such as those that may be used in a U.S. missile defense system, short of using a ballistic missile armed with a nuclear weapon. However, China is working to develop antisatellite measures, such as small attack satellites and ground-based lasers, the report says.

“China’s current level of interest in laser technology suggests that it is reasonable to assume Beijing eventually could develop a weapon to destroy satellites,” it says.

China on Tuesday said the U.S. report was based on an outdated Cold War-era mentality that viewed Beijing as a threat. During a Chinese Foreign Ministry press briefing, spokesman Liu Jianchao said that China’s national military policy is defense-oriented. 

The Pentagon’s projections of the development of China’s missile forces are similar to those made in previous years, Wade Boese of the Arms Control Association said yesterday, adding that this year’s report contained “nothing new or surprising.” He said that China’s “deliberate and steady” military modernization effort reflects a belief that little has changed in its threat assessments over the past year.

“Beijing sees a need to make its deterrent force more survivable, but it apparently is also in no great rush because it has not accelerated the modernization program,” Boese said.

Robert Norris of the Natural Resources Defense Council said today that the report was valuable for providing a “snapshot” of the progress China has made to date in its military modernization efforts.

China’s efforts to develop land-attack cruise missiles could pose a risk, Boese said, if Beijing were to export such systems abroad. He also said, though, that China’s interest in joining the Missile Technology Control Regime — a 33-nation group that agrees to implement similar export controls on missile technology — could lead Beijing to restrain from conducting land-attack cruise missile exports.

“With China exploring possible MTCR membership, I would suspect that China would be on its best behavior when it comes to missile exports during the foreseeable future,” Boese said.

According to reports, Chinese and MTCR officials during talks this week in Beijing expressed support for China joining the regime (see GSN, Feb. 5).

“China reiterated its willingness to join the MTCR” during the talks, Liu was quoted as saying today by Agence France-Presse. He also said that regime officials “expressed that the MTCR would give positive consideration to China’s application.”

Military Strategy

China’s short- and medium-term military modernization efforts are being conducted with a focus on preparing for a possible conflict with Taiwan, according to the report. While China has publicly sought a peaceful reunification with Taiwan, the Pentagon report notes that Beijing has not foresworn the use of force against the island and has indicated several situations that might prompt an invasion. Those include a formal declaration of independence or Taiwan’s obtaining of nuclear weapons. 

As part of its military options, China could use its short-range ballistic missile arsenal, which is deployed in the Nanjing Military Region directly opposite from Taiwan, to destroy leadership facilities, military bases and communication nodes there “with minimal advanced warning,” the report says. It also warns that China could use its short-range missiles to attack U.S. bases on the island of Okinawa.

After witnessing the devastating U.S. air campaigns during the 1991 Gulf War and subsequent conflicts, China is working to defend its missile facilities and other military sites from aerial attack by placing them in expanded underground facilities, the report says. 

Chinese military strategists have also examined the potential use of an unsophisticated nuclear weapon to generate a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse to damage enemy communication, radar and sensor systems, it says.

For its part, the Taiwanese government yesterday proposed a special budget of more than $18 billion to purchase U.S. weapons systems, the sale of which was approved in 2001. The special budget includes more than $4 billion to purchase six Patriot missile interceptor batteries, according to reports (see GSN, April 16).

In addition, U.S. Maj. Gen. John Allen, an aide to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, is expected to visit Taiwan next month. Allen would be the most senior U.S. military officer to visit the island in 25 years, according to Agence France-Presse.

The Pentagon report says that some Taiwanese officials, acknowledging that Taiwan cannot match China’s offensive military abilities, have proposed acquiring ballistic missiles and land-attack cruise missiles to threaten Chinese cities and high-value targets such as the Three Gorges Dam. Taiwan has also engaged in diplomatic measures, such as seeking a national referendum on a resolution to call on China to withdraw its missiles targeting the island, in an attempt to increase the diplomatic costs for Beijing should it attempt to conduct a missile attack, the report says.


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missile2

U.S. Auditors Review Boost-Phase Defense Effort


The U.S. Congressional Budget Office is examining the potential effectiveness of the Missile Defense Agency’s planned boost-phase missile interceptor, which would be used as part of a national missile defense system, Aerospace Daily & Defense Report reported today (see GSN, May 26).

The office is set to complete within two months its review of the ground-, sea- and space-based Kinetic Energy Interceptor program, according to the newsletter. The review was requested by Senator Jack Reed (D-R.I.), who noted in his July 2003 review request that a study conducted by the American Physical Society determined that a system of space-based, boost-phase interceptors would be too costly to be effective (see GSN, July 15, 2003). That study also found that sea- and air-based interceptors would probably not work against solid-propellant ICBMs like those expected to be eventually obtained by Iran and North Korea.

Reed also asked the Congressional Budget Office to compare the Kinetic Energy Interceptor effort with the older Airborne Laser program, also a boost-phase missile defense system, to determine how each effort would affect the overall effectiveness of a national missile defense system (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, June 3).


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other

Radioactive Material Smuggling Reportedly Rising


Citing International Atomic Energy Agency records, the British scientific journal New Scientist has reported a “dramatic rise” in the smuggling of radioactive materials, according to Agence France-Presse (see GSN, June 1).

In next week’s issue, New Scientist will report that there were 51 reported incidents of radioactive smuggling last year, up from eight incidents in 1996, according to AFP. Many of the incidents are believed to have occurred in Russia and other European countries, AFP reported.

“Smugglers target the radioactive materials used in factories, hospitals and research laboratories, which are not guarded as securely as those used by the nuclear industry,” the journal reports. Such incidents increase fears that the radioactive material could be used in a “dirty bomb.”

Since 1993, there have been 300 confirmed cases of radioactive material trafficking, with 215 of those occurring in the past five years, according to AFP. Another 344 suspected cases of radioactive smuggling have not been confirmed, according to IAEA records (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, June 2).

 


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