U.S. President George W. Bush today viewed recovered Libyan nuclear weapons-related equipment being kept in storage at the U.S. Energy Department’s Y-12 National Security Complex facility at Oak Ridge, Tenn. (AFP photo/Tim Sloan). Bush Says He Would Invade Iraq Again, Despite Absence of Weapons of Mass Destruction By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. President George W. Bush said Friday that he would choose again to invade Iraq because of the threat posed by former President Saddam Hussein, despite a Senate committee report that says the CIA’s assumptions on prewar Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction were either overstated or not supported by available intelligence (see GSN, July 9)...Full Story

U.S. Senators Call For Intelligence Reform By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Two members of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence yesterday called for reforms to improve U.S. intelligence following Friday’s release of the committee’s report that harshly criticized the CIA’s performance regarding prewar Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, July 9)...Full Story

Fewer Countries Today Seeking WMD, Bush Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Fewer nations today are seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction, in large part due to the public determination of the United States to prevent proliferation, U.S. President George W. Bush said today (see GSN, June 28)...Full Story

	Monday, July 12, 2004

U.S. Senators Call For Intelligence Reform By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Two members of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence yesterday called for reforms to improve U.S. intelligence following Friday’s release of the committee’s report that harshly criticized the CIA’s performance regarding prewar Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction (see GSN, July 9). During an appearance on ABC’s This Week With George Stephanopoulos, Senators Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Trent Lott (R-Miss.) said there was a need to reshape the structure of the U.S. intelligence community. The CIA director is presently the de facto head of U.S. intelligence, but lacks full authority and budgetary control over the 15 agencies involved in intelligence activities. “If that director can’t move the chairs on the deck of the Titanic, can’t set strategies across the community, can’t really work in a way that properly red teams and that can’t bring the subtleties of a judgment to the decision-makers, then you’ve got to change the structure,” Feinstein said. As one reform measure, Feinstein and Lott yesterday reiterated calls for establishing a director of national intelligence, who would be separate from the head of the CIA and would have full control over the entire U.S. intelligence community. On Friday, following the release of the Senate intelligence panel’s report on prewar Iraq intelligence, Feinstein called on lawmakers to support a bill originally introduced in 2002 that would establish a national director of intelligence with the ability to set intelligence collection priorities and full authority over the U.S. intelligence budget. U.S. President George W. Bush said Friday that the White House is considering several intelligence-reform proposals, including improved human intelligence and technological capabilities and measures to improve coordination among intelligence agencies. He did not mention, though, any structural reforms to the intelligence community. Citing White House intelligence advisers, the New York Times reported yesterday that the administration is not likely to substantively address the issue of intelligence reform until at least next year. “The president hasn’t decided how deeply he wants to take this on now,” the Times quoted a senior official as saying. “Everyone knows that serious reform is going to be strongly opposed by the Pentagon and the armed services committees,” the official said. While acknowledging the mistakes outlined in the Senate intelligence committee’s massive report, the CIA Friday cautioned against sweeping intelligence reform measures. “Remember there’s no perfection in this business. In other words, some sort of reordering of the boxes here will not bring you perfection in the intelligence business. There is no profit and loss or bottom line in this vital industry. How do you measure, how do you balance a hundred successes against one failure?” said acting CIA Director John McLaughlin. In a speech delivered late last month, McLaughlin opposed the creation of a national director of intelligence, saying it was better to improve the ability of the CIA director to act as director of central intelligence. “I believe the benefits of a position like that [national director of intelligence] can be found without the additional layers of command or bureaucracy such a change would inevitably bring.  The benefits can be found by modernizing the structures we already have,” he said. McLaughlin said Friday that the CIA had already taken steps to address one problem listed in the Senate report — the creation of National Intelligence Estimates. While the agency’s 2002 report on Iraq’s alleged WMD efforts failed to contain in its summary a number of the caveats listed in the full report, McLaughlin said that this would no longer be the case in the future. “In the future our summary of estimates will mirror exactly what we’re saying in the body of the estimate. If you look at the body of this estimate you will see the differences in the community are absolutely laid out in great detail, the qualifiers are there,” he said. Senate intelligence committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) said yesterday that his committee plans to hold hearings on intelligence reform in two weeks. McLaughlin, who previously served as agency deputy director, assumed control of the CIA yesterday following the formal resignation of former Director George Tenet (see GSN, July 9). According to the Times, Bush is set to name a formal replacement for Tenet within the next two weeks.  Several U.S. senators, including Roberts and the Senate intelligence panel’s top Democrat, Jay Rockefeller (W.Va.), called on the administration yesterday to quickly name a replacement for Tenet. “I hope the administration will send somebody up. There’s four or five people that, I think, have been talked about. It’ll have to be an extraordinary nominee. If that’s the case, we will go full-time into the hearings to get him — or her – confirmed,” Roberts said on NBC’s Meet The Press. Among the various names that have been suggested for the position of CIA director are House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Porter Goss (R-Fla.), Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and former Defense Secretary Sam Nunn. While Lott said that Goss “probably would have the edge,” Rockefeller suggested yesterday that Democrats would oppose him as being too political. “I don’t think that anybody who should be up for consideration should have a political background,” Rockefeller said on Meet the Press. Feinstein said yesterday, though, that intelligence reform should be addressed before a new permanent CIA director is appointed. “We have now taken over a year on this report and I feel very strongly that … there are powerful interests ... in this government that don’t want to change the structure,” she said. “If you get a new director that aligns himself with those powerful interests, we will never have major reform,” Feinstein added. Back to top       9/11 Commission to Deny al-Qaeda-Iraq Collaboration The commission investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks is expected to reject possibilities of a collaborative relationship between Iraq and al-Qaeda in a report set to be released before the panel’s July 26 deadline, according to the New York Times (see GSN, July 7). An interim staff report released last month found that there was “no credible evidence that Iraq and al-Qaeda cooperated on attacks against the United States” and that multiple contacts between Iraq and al-Qaeda “do not appear to have resulted in a collaborative relationship.” The final report is set to closely follow the staff report on theories of an al-Qaeda-Iraq link, commission members and the panel’s chief spokesman said last week. However, the final report is expected to document contacts over the years between Iraqi government and military officials and al-Qaeda’s leadership, said commission spokesman Al Felzenberg. “We expect the final report to enumerate on some of the contacts that were made between Iraq and al-Qaeda, and there were a number of points of contacts,” Felzenberg said. The report is also expected to document failures at senior levels of the Bush administration that prevented the United States from forcefully heeding intelligence warnings before the attacks, commission officials said. The report is not expected to name officials. However, it is likely to criticize several agencies, including the FBI and CIA, for their performance in both the Bush and Clinton administrations. It is also likely call for an overhaul of U.S. counterterrorism and intelligence efforts, according to the commission officials. The commission hopes to release the final report during the week of July 18, to avoid being overshadowed by the Democratic convention set for the following week, according to the Times (Philip Shenon, New York Times, July 12). Back to top

Bush Says He Would Invade Iraq Again, Despite Absence of Weapons of Mass Destruction By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. President George W. Bush said Friday that he would choose again to invade Iraq because of the threat posed by former President Saddam Hussein, despite a Senate committee report that says the CIA’s assumptions on prewar Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction were either overstated or not supported by available intelligence (see GSN, July 9). During a re-election campaign stop in Lancaster, Pa., Bush said he “welcomed” the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence report on prewar Iraq intelligence. “It’s important for a president and the Congress to get the best intelligence possible in this war against these terrorists. One of the key components of finding out who is going to hurt us is good intelligence,” he said. On Friday, the Senate intelligence panel released a report detailing the results of its yearlong inquiry into the CIA’s 2002 National Intelligence Estimate entitled Iraq’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction. According to the committee, “most of the major key judgments” included in the estimate, such as prewar Iraq’s efforts to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program, its possession of biological and chemical weapons, its efforts to develop unmanned aerial vehicles for use in biological attacks and that its biological weapons research program was active and larger than prior to the 1991 Gulf War, were either “overstated, or were not supported by, the underlying intelligence.” The report’s 117 conclusions also include: *         the U.S. intelligence community “did not accurately or adequately explain to policy-makers” the uncertainties behind the assessments made in the estimate; *         the intelligence community suffered from a “group-think dynamic” that prewar Iraq had an active WMD program, which led analysts to interpret ambiguous information as positive evidence of such an effort and ignore or minimize intelligence that Iraq did not have an active WMD program; *         intelligence officials did not adequately supervise analysts and failed to encourage them to challenge assumptions or to fully consider alternative arguments; *         there were “significant shortcomings in almost every aspect” of human intelligence activities against Iraq’s WMD efforts, with many of the problems resulting from “a broken corporate culture and poor management”; *         the CIA failed to fully share information with other intelligence agencies and, in some instances, failed to consider information provided by analysts from other agencies; and *         intelligence analysts were not influenced by “political pressure” to reach certain conclusions. “Tragically, the intelligence failure set forth in this report will affect our national security for generations to come. Our credibility is diminished.  Our standing in the world has never been lower,” Senator Jay Rockefeller (W.Va.), the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence panel, said Friday during a press conference to release the report. On Friday, however, Bush defended his decision to invade Iraq, which the White House said at the time was based largely on the threat posed by Iraq’s alleged WMD efforts. In his remarks Friday, Bush said that along with the administration, both houses of the U.S. Congress and the United Nations believed that Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction. While no such weapon stockpiles have been found in Iraq, Hussein still posed a threat to the United States that necessitated his removal from power, Bush said. The president added that he would still make the decision today to invade. “I just want you to remember, that the man had the capacity to make weapons. He had the ability to make weapons.  He had the intent and the capability, which is why I say I would have done it again, because he’s a dangerous person,” Bush said. Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.), who is set to challenge Bush in the 2004 presidential election, accused the president Friday of making “misleading statements” about Iraq to build support for war. “He certainly misled America about nuclear involvement. And he misled America about the types of weapons that were there, and he misled America about how he would go about using the authority he was given. ‘Going to war as a last resort’ means something to me. The president did not go to war as a last resort, period,” Kerry said in an interview with the New York Times. Rockefeller said Friday that Congress would probably not have supported the invasion of Iraq if members knew of all the errors in the prewar intelligence. “The fact is that the administration at all levels, and to some extent us, used bad information to bolster its case for war. And we in Congress would not have authorized that war … with 75 votes if we knew what we know now,” he said. Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) said Friday, though, that lacking the information on prewar Iraq’s WMD efforts, the rationale for war might have been based more on humanitarian reasons. He added that he was unsure as to how much support there would have been for an invasion on such grounds. “I don’t know how many more resolutions the U.N. would have to pass in regards to a humanitarian intervention or whether or not that kind of military intervention that we conducted would have been conducted,” he said. CIA Response, Calls for Reform The CIA on Friday acknowledged the long list of flaws included in the Senate report. “We get it. Although we think the judgments were not unreasonable when they were made nearly two years ago, we understand with all that we have learned since then that we could have done better,” acting CIA Director John McLaughlin said. The CIA has taken steps to improve its processes for preparing National Intelligence Estimates, McLaughlin said. Among such steps are plans to include caveats in a document’s summary, improved efforts to validate sources, the subjection of every estimate to “double analysis” and increasing other agencies’ access to CIA intelligence. McLaughlin rejected a claim made by Roberts that the CIA was part of an “assumption train” that prewar Iraq had active WMD efforts. “If it was an assumption train, we were not the engine. I’m not even sure we were the coal car. I don’t know where we were on it, but people all around the world made the assumption that this country had weapons,” he said. In addition, McLaughlin noted that the CIA had accomplished a number of successes regarding the WMD efforts of other rogue states, such as Iran, Libya and North Korea. “It is wrong to exaggerate the flaws or leap to the judgment that our challenges with prewar Iraq weapons intelligence are evidence of sweeping problems across the broad spectrum of issues with which the intelligence community must deal,” he said. While the Senate report has prompted calls from lawmakers for intelligence reform, including a proposal to establish a national director of intelligence, McLaughlin on Friday warned against sweeping changes (see related GSN story, today). “If people are contemplating reform of the community, be careful not to destroy the advances we’ve made. There’s this impression out there that somehow the community has stood still over the last seven years. In fact we have transformed ourselves dramatically in ways that are not well understood,” he said. Next Steps According to Senate intelligence panel members, the committee is now set to examine whether Bush administration officials misused prewar intelligence on Iraq to bolster the case for war. The committee previously decided, to the frustration of some Democratic members, to divide the investigation into a two-stage approach, with the initial focus being on the intelligence community’s performance.  Roberts said yesterday that he was unsure if the committee would finish its investigation of possible misuse of intelligence before the presidential election, scheduled to be held in November. “It is more important to get it right,” he said, denying that White House pressure had led to the division of duties. According to the Los Angeles Times, Roberts asked committee members to submit claims made by administration officials prior to the war to be examined to determine if they were exaggerated or unsupported.  Rockefeller said yesterday that more needs to be done to fully address whether Bush administration officials pressured intelligence analysts. While the Senate report, which was unanimously approved by the committee, denied that such pressure occurred, Rockefeller said that numerous public statements by administration officials on the threat posed by Iraq might also have influenced intelligence analysts. “I think there was pressure. I think there was pressure primarily because of the nonstop barrage of statements that were coming out of the administration saying that, you know, that the horror, mushroom clouds, grave and growing danger, all that kind of thing,” he said on Fox News Sunday. Roberts, though, continued to stand by the assessment made in the Senate report. “I don’t know how many times I have tried to say this in committee and in public — if anybody has any evidence of their analytical product being changed or coerced or manipulated or intimidated, please come forward. We had some people come forward, but it was all hearsay, and it didn’t amount to anything in terms of any direct evidence. We had one individual raise his hand, but it was about Cuba,” he said on Fox News Sunday. Back to top       Iraq Renounces WMD, Security Adviser Says A senior Iraqi official formally renounced Iraqi possession of weapons of mass destruction yesterday. Iraq “officially declares” that it will never again possess weapons of mass destruction, said Iraqi national security adviser Mouwaffaq al-Rubaie (see related GSN story, today). Iraq would abide by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the Biological Weapons Convention and the Chemical Weapons Convention, al-Rubaie said. “Iraq will never again resort to threatening its neighbors,” he said (Nadia Abou El-Magd, Associated Press, July 11). Al-Rubaie also said yesterday that Iraq had approved a U.S. operation last month to remove radioactive sources and low-enriched uranium that had been stored at the Tuwaitha nuclear complex, according to Reuters (see GSN, July 8). “Just imagine if these weapons of mass destruction or any of these capabilities of making a dirty bomb or a chemical weapon or anything like this, if it falls in the hands of [Jordanian militant Abu Musab] Zarqawi’s gangsters or Zarqawi’s people and these global terrorists or Saddam’s former regime, what will happen,” al-Rubaie said. “I have no shadow of doubt that … with his evil mind, he (Zarqawi) will try to acquire these unconventional weapons,” he added (Edmund Blair, Reuters/AlertNet, July 12).  Back to top       U.S. Pre-Emption Strategy Questioned China and Iran are citing U.S. intelligence failures on Iraq in their arguments that the United States must abandon the threat pre-emption strategy outlined in President George W. Bush’s 2002 national security strategy, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, June 9). China has stated openly that U.S. claims that North Korea has a secret uranium enrichment program are not to be trusted. “It hurts us, there is no question,” a senior Bush aide said Friday. “We already have the Chinese saying to us, ‘If you missed this much in Iraq, how are we supposed to believe that the North Koreans are producing nuclear weapons?’ It just increases the pressure on us to prove that we are right,” the aide added. Iran is making a similar argument about its own nuclear program. It hid its uranium enrichment efforts from inspectors for 17 years until the evidence of its activities became overwhelming last year, forcing an admission by Tehran. Now Iran argues that the United States is jumping to the conclusion that Tehran’s real goal is production of a nuclear weapon, rather than more efficient energy production, as it contends. The basis for U.S. suspicions in North Korea and Iran is stronger than it was for Iraq. International inspectors have measured fissile material in both countries, and visited facilities capable of producing more, according to the Times. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency has declined to support the United States. “We all think the American assessment is probably right because there is no other good explanation for the Iranian activities,” a senior diplomat involved in the search for evidence in Iran said. “But we still don’t have the smoking gun. We need smoking guns more than ever,” he added (David Sanger, New York Times, July 12). Back to top

Fewer Countries Today Seeking WMD, Bush Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Fewer nations today are seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruction, in large part due to the public determination of the United States to prevent proliferation, U.S. President George W. Bush said today (see GSN, June 28). During an appearance at the Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tenn., to view recovered Libyan nuclear weapons-related equipment, Bush praised the progress made since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in preventing the spread of unconventional arms. “There are still outlaw regimes pursuing weapons of mass destruction, but the world no longer looks the other way. Today, because America has acted and because America has led, the forces of terror and tyranny have suffered defeat after defeat, and America and the world are safer,” he said. Following Libya’s decision to end its WMD efforts, more than 55,000 pounds of equipment and materials from Tripoli’s nuclear weapons program were shipped early this year to the United States to be safely secured at the Y-12 complex. The recovered equipment, according to reports, included about 4,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges (see GSN, March 16). Upon viewing the recovered materials, Bush praised Libya’s decision to end its WMD programs, saying the move had been reached by both “quiet diplomacy” and the public determination of the United States and its allies to oppose proliferation “with all our power.” “Three years ago, the nation of Libya, a longtime supporter of terror, was spending millions to acquire chemical and nuclear weapons. Today, thousands of Libya's chemical munitions have been destroyed, and nuclear processing equipment that could ultimately have threatened the lives of hundreds of thousands is stored away right here in Oak Ridge, Tenn. Today, because the Libyan government saw the seriousness of the civilized world and correctly judged its own interests, the American people are safer,” Bush said. To date, the Bush administration has responded to Libya’s disarmament efforts with several measures intended to help restore relations, such as the end to most economic sanctions against Tripoli. The latest move came late last month when the United States opened a liaison office in Tripoli, restoring direct diplomatic ties with Libya after almost 25 years (see GSN, June 29). Bush today also praised the progress being made in eliminating the international nuclear network revealed by top Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who confessed to transferring nuclear weapons-related technology to Libya, Iran and North Korea (see GSN, June 23). “Today, the A.Q. Khan network is out of business. We have ended one of the most dangerous sources of proliferation in the world, and the American people are safer,” Bush said. Back to top       Pakistan Plans Domestic Uranium Exploration Project Pakistani officials have approved a project estimated at more than $10 million to explore uranium resources within Pakistan to ensure that the country has a domestic nuclear fuel supply, Dawn reported yesterday (see GSN, July 8). “Pakistan cannot rely on foreign uranium supplies which at times are disrupted without any reason,” a source said. The uranium exploration effort was one of 24 development projects approved last month by the Central Development Working Party of the Planning Commission, according to Dawn. All of the projects are set to begin by the end of next year, sources said Saturday (Ihtasham ul Haque, Dawn, July 11). Back to top       More Classified Data Goes Missing at Los Alamos Los Alamos National Laboratory personnel on Wednesday found that two computer-data storage devices containing classified information were missing from the nuclear weapons research facility, the New York Times reported (see GSN, May 21). “It’s a very serious situation,” said laboratory spokesman Kevin Roark. Officials would give no additional information as to the nature of the devices or the information contained on them, according to the Times. This is the third time in the last year in which classified data went missing from the New Mexico laboratory.  However, this time the announcement was of a more serious tone, according to the Times. Laboratory director G. Peter Nanos said this situation “must be dealt with swiftly and decisively.”  “I intend to fully exercise my authority as director to hold those involved fully accountable, up to and including termination of employment, if appropriate,” he added (Kenneth Chang, New York Times, July 10). U.S. Representative Ed Markey (D-Mass.), a longtime critic of Energy Department security measures at the country’s nuclear facilities, said more must be done to prevent such lapses. “Today’s announcement that Los Alamos has once again misplaced classified computer storage equipment is shocking, unacceptable and makes clear yet again that the Department of Energy needs to do more than merely announce and then re-announce security initiatives each time a security breach at Los Alamos or Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory occurs,” says a statement released by Markey’s office on Friday. Back to top       Rice Urges Pyongyang to Study Libyan Precedent North Korea would be “surprised” at the rewards it could receive for dismantling its nuclear programs, U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said Friday in Seoul (see GSN, July 8). “North Korea will be surprised to see how much will be possible (if it abandons its nuclear programs),” Rice told South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon in Seoul, according to Agence France-Presse. “So much is possible if North Korea just does that,” she added. Rice expressed hope that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il would follow the example of Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi, who restored relations with the United States after renouncing weapons of mass destruction. “I wish Kim Jong Il would talk to Qadhafi,” Rice said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 9). Back to top

Anthrax-Attack Building Begins Decontamination Technicians have begun decontaminating the site where the U.S. anthrax mail attacks were first detected in late 2001. The American Media Inc. building in Boca Raton, Fla., has been closed since the attacks, when some of the building inhabitants were sickened and one died from anthrax exposure (see GSN, Feb. 25). Workers from BioONE, a company established by former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Sabre Technical Services, began pumping chlorine dioxide yesterday to kill any remaining anthrax spores. “It will be a symbol that we can deal with these new risks that we live with in our new world,” Giuliani said. Cleanup is expected to last 24 to 36 hours. Repeated tests would then be conducted to determine the building’s safety before quarantine is lifted (Associated Press/CNN, July 11). Back to top

U.S. Might Shelve Airborne Laser Plans The U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s Airborne Laser program is so far behind schedule and over budget that the agency could ultimately decide to kill the project, Defense News reported today (see GSN, July 6). “It is frustrating that we were able to keep only one of the three things [performance goals] under control,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish said before retiring as agency chief. “What happened is we tried very hard to keep the performance as good as we can make it, but we were unable to control the other two variables [cost and schedule] because of the unexpected difficulties in matching the laser plants with the optics,” he added. If cost and schedule goals are not met, Kadish said the agency would recommend either killing or significantly changing the project aimed at using lasers to shoot down missiles. “The other solution might be redoing some of the technology in the lab,” he said. The agency is “not in any way, shape or form ready to give up on the ABL,” he added (Gopal Ratnam, Defense News, July 12). Back to top       Army Opens Office to Link Missile Defense Systems The U.S. Army on Thursday established a new office in Alabama whose ultimate task will be to develop a system linking all missile defense components used by the United States and its allies, the Huntsville (Ala.) Times reported. The Integrated Fire Control Product Office will be responsible for connecting “every one of our air, ground and space-based (missile) defense systems,” said Maj. Gen. John Urias, head of the Program Executive Office for Air, Space and Missile Defense. U.S. missile defense systems in development currently use individual radars and other sensors to detect and then engage enemy missiles, according to the Times.  The Defense Department is looking to move from this approach to a system that uses all its sensors more efficiently, Urias said. The planned arrangement would allow individual missile defense systems to relay information to other systems. “It’s a paradigm shift for the Army and for the Pentagon,” Urias said. “We have to change the way we do business for our systems to work properly,” he added (Shelby Spires, Huntsville Times, July 9).     Back to top

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