IAEA officials inspected Iraq’s Tuwaitha nuclear complex last year (above) and have complained that the United States removed materials from the site last month without agency permission (AFP photo/Ramzi Haidar). U.S. Removed Iraqi Nuclear Material Without IAEA OK The United States failed to obtain authorization from the International Atomic Energy Agency before removing radioactive sources and low-enriched uranium from Iraq last month. The materials had been under agency seal, U.N. officials said yesterday (see GSN, July 7). “The American authorities just informed us of their intention to remove the materials, but they never sought authorization from us,” said Gustavo Zlauvinen, head of the IAEA office in New York...Full Story

Ridge Says Al-Qaeda Planning “Large-Scale Attack” By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Al-Qaeda is planning a “large-scale attack” in the United States in a possible bid to affect the November presidential election, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said here today...Full Story

Western Nations Should Buy Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Reduce Proliferation Risk, Experts Say By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The United States and other Western nations should seek to reduce nuclear proliferation risks by purchasing and disposing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, according to a paper by two U.S. nuclear weapons experts published in the spring edition of the U.S. Naval War College Review (see GSN, May 27)...Full Story

	Thursday, July 8, 2004

Ridge Says Al-Qaeda Planning “Large-Scale Attack” By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Al-Qaeda is planning a “large-scale attack” in the United States in a possible bid to affect the November presidential election, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said here today. The secretary said the Homeland Security Department is not raising its color-coded threat level ― currently set at yellow, or “elevated” ― and that today’s announcement was part of a series of “periodic” updates to the U.S. public about the terrorist threat. “Credible reporting now indicates that al-Qaeda is moving forward with its plans to carry out a large-scale attack in the United States in an effort to disrupt our democratic process,” the secretary told reporters at the department’s headquarters. “These are pieces of information that we can trace comfortably to sources that we believe to be credible,” Ridge said. The Democratic Party convention is scheduled for later this month in Boston, and the Republican Party plans to hold its convention beginning late next month in New York. Ridge, who has designated the conventions as “national special security events,” said he planned to visit the two cities soon to review security measures (see GSN, July 6). Ridge said the United States has no detailed information about attack plans but is “actively working to gain that knowledge.” He said there is no specific intelligence indicating al-Qaeda plans to target the conventions. The March 11 train attack in Madrid and discoveries made by authorities in recent interdiction operations in Italy, Jordan and the United Kingdom have shown that al-Qaeda is capable of carrying out large attacks, Ridge said. “Not only did they have the individuals in place, but they had the means to the end,” said the secretary. Al-Qaeda, he said, had the “munitions and ability to conduct the terrorist attack.” “We live in serious times, and this is sobering information about those who wish to do us harm, but every day, we strengthen the security of our nation, and as a nation, we are committed to the absolute protection of our citizens,” Ridge said. Back to top

Senate Report on Iraqi Intelligence Will Not Address White House Use of Information A report on U.S. prewar intelligence on Iraq set to be released tomorrow by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence will not address whether the Bush administration misused intelligence to build the case for war, congressional officials said yesterday (see GSN, July 6). Democratic and Republican committee members agreed earlier this year that the administration’s use of prewar intelligence would be addressed in a second inquiry, not expected to be completed until after the November presidential election, according to the New York Times. While both sides of the committee have expressed a desire to quickly complete the second inquiry, the panel also plans to work on recommendations for reform in the U.S. intelligence community, the Times reported. The committee report is expected to focus primarily on the errors made by U.S. intelligence agencies in gathering and evaluating intelligence on prewar Iraq. Democratic committee members plan to increase attention on the issue of the administration’s use of such intelligence by releasing a number of “additional views” to supplement the report, according to the Times. “How the administration used the intelligence was very troubling,” Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said. “They took a flawed set of intelligence reports and converted it into a rationale for going to war,” he added (Douglas Jehl, New York Times, July 8). Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) said yesterday, though, that the report would clear the administration of any claims of misusing prewar intelligence. “I would say it’s a total vindication of any allegations that might ever have been made about what the administration did with the information,” said Chambliss, a committee member (Jonathan Landay, Knight Ridder/Miami Herald, July 8). Back to top       “45-Minute” Iraqi WMD Claim Based on Poor Information, British Inquiry Expected to Find A British inquiry into intelligence on prewar Iraq is expected to find that there was inadequate intelligence to support the September 2002 British claim that prewar Iraq’s military could deploy biological and chemical weapons within 45 minutes of receiving a deployment order, the Financial Times reported today (see GSN, July 6). A report set to be released July 14 is set to conclude that the intelligence used to support the claim was of poor quality and is also expected to criticize both the sources of such information and its analysis, according to the Times. The inquiry is also expected to find that most of the prewar intelligence gathered on Iraq was inadequate, the Times reported (Mark Huband, Financial Times, July 8). The inquiry would report, though, that British intelligence was correct when it determined that prewar Iraq had sought to purchase uranium from Niger, according to the Financial Times (see GSN, June 28; Mark Huband, Financial Times II, July 8). Back to top       “What Happens in Vegas” Includes WMD Monitoring Some Las Vegas hotels are equipped to detect weapons of mass destruction as the city works to simultaneously entertain visitors and protect them from potential terrorist attacks, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday. The city has received $36 million in federal funds for security since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. The Nevada desert gambling hot spot is considered a likely target for an attack, according to AFP. “It’s no secret that we have a lot of activities here that are pretty contradictive to fundamentalist Islamic values,” Las Vegas Sheriff Bill Young said. “We like to have a good time here. I’m sure we are on their radar screen somewhere as a potential target because we are the most advertised city in America,” he added. “We spend millions of dollars to make this place America’s playground,” the sheriff said. Young had the flight zone over the city closed on New Year’s Eve 2003 and the city received air protection from military helicopters, while poison detectors were deployed in case of a chemical attack. In addition, some hotels have been equipped with other WMD sensors. The Venetian hotel, for example, has installed devices capable of detecting nuclear material and its security personnel is being equipped with portable nuclear and chemical sensors and pen-sized cameras designed to be carried in shirt pockets, AFP reported (Pascal Barollier, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 7). Back to top

U.S. Removed Iraqi Nuclear Material Without IAEA OK The United States failed to obtain authorization from the International Atomic Energy Agency before removing radioactive sources and low-enriched uranium from Iraq last month. The materials had been under agency seal, U.N. officials said yesterday (see GSN, July 7). “The American authorities just informed us of their intention to remove the materials, but they never sought authorization from us,” said Gustavo Zlauvinen, head of the IAEA office in New York. U.S. officials said yesterday that they had approval from the new Iraqi government to remove the materials and did not need IAEA authorization. “We are in custody of the material only, and we have the permission of the Iraqi government to take this out of the country,” National Nuclear Security Administration deputy chief Paul Longsworth said (Edith Lederer, Associated Press/PhillyBurbs.com, July 8). Nuclear experts yesterday criticized the Energy Department for leaving behind about 400 tons of natural uranium in Iraq, according to the Washington Post. The uranium “is still dangerous and could be used in a nuclear weapons program or sold to somebody that would misuse it,” said former U.N. nuclear weapons inspector David Albright. “They lost a real opportunity to move the natural uranium, and that’s disappointing since they had well over a year to do it when the country was exclusively under American control,” Albright said. “We have no idea what Iraq will look like in a year,” he added. NNSA spokesman Bryan Wilkes said that natural uranium is not considered an immediate proliferation threat and that such material in Iraq is being stored at a secure location under the protection of the Iraqi government (Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, July 8). Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi said Iraq would not attempt to relaunch its nuclear weapons program. Iraq will not spend “the riches of its nation” on “destructive and illegal weapons,” he said (Associated Press/WHNT19.com, July 8). Back to top       Western Nations Should Buy Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Reduce Proliferation Risk, Experts Say By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — The United States and other Western nations should seek to reduce nuclear proliferation risks by purchasing and disposing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, according to a paper by two U.S. nuclear weapons experts published in the spring edition of the U.S. Naval War College Review (see GSN, May 27). Russia possesses anywhere from 3,000 to 20,000 tactical nuclear weapons, which are intended for battlefield use and generally have smaller yields than strategic nuclear weapons, experts say. Citing ongoing security concerns at Russian nuclear weapons storage sites, experts have warned that terrorists seeking to acquire nuclear arms may seek to steal or purchase tactical weapons. The nuclear weapons range from artillery shells to landmines to missile-launched warheads, according to the Council for a Livable World. To help reduce that proliferation threat, Timothy Miller and Jeffrey Larsen, senior analysts at U.S. defense contractor Science Applications International Corp (SAIC), have proposed that Western nations enter into a “cash for kilotons” agreement with Russia to purchase and dismantle tactical nuclear weapons.  The United States and Russia already have a similar agreement in place with the Megatons to Megawatts effort, which seeks to eliminate 500 metric tons of highly enriched uranium removed from Russian strategic nuclear weapons. Under the 20-year program, which was launched in 1994, Russia converts material removed from its nuclear warheads into low-enriched uranium, which is then purchased by the U.S. Enrichment Corp. for sale as civilian nuclear plant fuel (see GSN, June 17). Miller and Larsen’s proposal calls for both the United States and Russia to fully inform each other about the size and details of their tactical nuclear weapons arsenals, which would probably need to be verified by taking a joint inventory, and to then decide which weapons are in excess of national security needs.  A group of Western nations would then negotiate with Russia the price of each weapon based on a “per-kiloton-of-warhead” basis. Miller and Larsen proposed making the NATO-Russia Council responsible for the financial arrangements. The council, acting as an executive committee for the effort, would establish an initial price per unit yield for various classes of weapons, which would serve as the basis for later negotiations for final prices, according to the paper. While the overall costs of purchasing Russian tactical weapons would probably run into the billions of dollars, such payments could be spread out over a multiyear period, Miller and Larsen wrote, adding that the weapons to be dismantled would have to be transferred immediately. The experts also proposed that Russia could be offered debt forgiveness, instead of money, for each weapon. In their paper, Miller and Larsen called for “tight time constraints” on the purchase price negotiations. They proposed that the countries involved should set a timetable for negotiations, and if they are not completed under that schedule, the entire process should stop and price penalties be put into effect based on which parties were responsible for the delay. Once Russian tactical weapons were purchased, according to Miller and Larsen, they would be “immediately” secured and dismantled. In their paper, the two experts proposed that the International Atomic Energy Agency be given the role of custodian for the purchased weapons and responsibility for operating a facility in Russia to demilitarize the weapons and to blend down any highly enriched uranium they contain. “We believe that a neutral third party, one that would not pose a military threat to either side, would enhance mutual confidence in a way that is critical to removing suspicion,” Miller and Larsen wrote. Mary Beth Nikitin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies last week questioned IAEA involvement, noting the success that the United States and Russia have had in bilaterally carrying out the Megatons to Megawatts agreement.  Once converted to low-enriched uranium, the material formerly contained in the purchased weapons could be converted to civilian nuclear power plant fuel and distributed among those countries involved in the project or sold into international nuclear fuel markets, according to Miller and Larsen. To help prevent a glut of new fuel from entering the market, they proposed that the agreement’s executive committee govern the rate of fuel conversion and the sale of fuel. Other nonproliferation experts were divided on assessing the likelihood of Russia and the United States adopting Miller and Larsen’s proposal. Rose Gottemoeller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said earlier this week that the proposal would be useful to gain “momentum” on tackling the issue of tactical nuclear weapons.  According to Gottemoeller, proposals to purchase Russian tactical weapons stretch back to the late 1980s, but at that time there was little support within the U.S. Congress to fund a direct buyout. However, she added that the successes achieved by the U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction program, which works to dispose of and secure former Soviet weapons of mass destruction and related materials, might have helped to change the attitudes of U.S. lawmakers. In Russia, though, the proposal is likely to run into more opposition for a variety of reasons, according to experts. Russia would likely be less interested in direct financial compensation alone in exchange for tactical nuclear weapons due to the improving state of its economy and reduced concerns over the security of its nuclear arsenal, said Mike Jasinski of the University of Georgia’s Center for International Trade and Security. In addition, according to Jasinski, Russia views the possibility of a future arms control agreement on tactical nuclear weapons as a “bargaining chip” with which to obtain concessions from the United States on other issues, such as missile defense and U.S. plans to study new low-yield nuclear weapons (see GSN, April 22). “There is a long list of issues that create as much concern and apprehension in Moscow as the TNW [tactical nuclear weapons] issue does in Washington. Therefore, in my view, any proposal aiming at addressing the Russian TNW issue will also have to do something about alleviating Russian concerns,” Jasinski said in a written response to Global Security Newswire. Russia’s continued concerns regarding NATO could also prevent any agreement on reducing tactical nuclear weapons, said Nikolai Sokov of the Monterey Institute for International Studies’ Center for Nonproliferation Studies. He said last week that Russia was unlikely to address the issue until questions of NATO’s future intentions toward Moscow and the current technological and numerical imbalance between Russian forces and those of the alliance were resolved (see GSN, April 7). “If Americans are concerned about Russian NSNW [nonstrategic nuclear weapons], why worry? Russian intentions are as benign as those of NATO. I think the relationship as a whole must change if Russia is to change its current stance,” Sokov said in a written response to GSN. Gottemoeller said the Russian military views its tactical nuclear arsenal as the “ultimate insurance policy” for its weakened conventional forces. She added, though, that she did not see this as an “insurmountable barrier” to reaching a future agreement. Back to top       Israel Has Open Mind on Nuclear-Free Zone: ElBaradei Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said he is open to discussion about closing the Middle East to nuclear weapons, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said today (see GSN, July 7). ElBaradei, on a three-day visit to Israel, said Sharon committed to “work in the future toward a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East,” the Associated Press reported. There was no information on when any talks might take place. Sharon’s office did not immediately comment, according to the Associated Press (Associated Press/USA Today, July 8). ElBaradei also said Israeli officials told him they were concerned about Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons drive, Agence France-Presse reported. An agency spokesman added that Arab states in the region feel Israel’s nuclear activities are not scrutinized as closely as their own, while Israel believes it is the only country in the region to face an “existential threat.” “Arab nations feel Israel is treated differently,” spokesman Mark Gwozdecky said. Israel is not investigated by the agency because it is not a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, he added. “Israel has its own threat perception which it believes is unique” since Iran is opposed to the existence of the Jewish state, Gwozdecky said (Michael Adler, Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, July 7). ElBaradei was flown over Israel yesterday and the airplane flew within sight of the Dimona nuclear reactor, which appeared as a “little brown dot” in the distance, according to the Israeli air force official who accompanied ElBaradei on the flight, the Associated Press reported (George Jahn, Associated Press/PhillyBurbs.com, July 8). Meanwhile, the agency yesterday declined the request for a meeting by nuclear whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu, the Washington Times reported. Vanunu had accused ElBaradei of failing to seek full information about Israel’s nuclear activities. “We are here as guests of our Israeli counterparts and have no intention of busting in on Dimona or on people we were not scheduled to see,” Gwozdecky said (Paul Martin, Washington Times, July 8). Back to top       Rice Discusses North Korea With Asian Leaders U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice met with top Chinese leaders today in Beijing to discuss the North Korean nuclear standoff, Taiwan and other issues, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, July 2). Rice was set to meet with former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing and President Hu Jintao. “China is an important power in Asia and globally and we have an excellent relationship with China,” Rice said following talks with Japanese leaders in Tokyo, adding that she planned to discuss a “full range of issues in U.S.-China relations,” including “the need for higher-level dialogue between the United States and China” and the issue of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. In talks with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in Tokyo, Rice called the North Korean issue “urgent.” She is expected to depart for South Korea tomorrow, according to AFP. Meanwhile, North Korean Defense Minister Kim Il Chol yesterday accused the United States of preparing to launch an attack against the Stalinist country “behind the curtain of the six-party talks” yesterday in a speech marking the 10th anniversary of the death of former North Korean president Kim Il Sung (Robert Saiget, Agence France-Presse/Channel News Asia, July 8). Back to top       Musharraf Reasserts Pakistan’s Nuclear Status Pakistan has no plans to abandon its nuclear arsenal, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said yesterday (see GSN, June 22). “We are a nuclear state, and we continue to be a nuclear state — we have missiles and nuclear capability and we will continue on this path,” Musharraf said after a meeting with Finnish Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen in Helsinki. Musharraf also denied that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal poses proliferation concerns. “There is no question that these can fall into the hands of extremists … we have plugged all the holes that were there in the past,” he said (Mans Hulden, Associated Press, July 7). Back to top

Japan Concerned About North Korea Missiles North Korea’s reported deployment of new missiles and development of longer-range missiles is a cause for “strong concern,” a Japanese defense official said today (see GSN, July 7). “The Defense Agency has strong concern about such moves,” agency Vice Minister Takemasa Moriya said today of South Korean reports about the deployment. “We can assume that the range of North Korea’s ballistic missiles will be extended further,” Moriya added. North Korea is believed to possess an arsenal of up to 600 Scud missiles with a range of between 300 and 500 kilometers, and 100 Rodong 1 missiles with a range of 1,300 kilometers, according to AFP. Pyongyang has also developed missiles with a range of up to 4,000 kilometers, according to U.S. intelligence reports (Agence France-Presse, July 8). Back to top

U.S., Australia Sign Missile Defense Agreement U.S. and Australian officials signed an agreement yesterday to cooperate on research and deployment of a ballistic missile defense system, the Washington Times reported (see GSN, July 7). U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Australian Defense Minister Robert Hill signed the 25-year agreement at the State Department, making Australia a “participating country” in the U.S. missile defense program. Hill said that his country does not see any immediate missile threats to its own security, but that collaboration with the United States would be a positive move. “For us, it a long-term investment,” he said. “We believe that we have a responsibility to address not only the threats of today, but the threats we might face in the future,” he added (David Sands, Washington Times, July 8).   Back to top

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