Hassan Moussavian, head Iranian negotiator at the International Atomic Energy Agency, spoke Monday to reporters during a meeting of the agency’s Board of Governors. U.S. and European officials have used the meeting to propose various recommendations to address Iran’s nuclear activities (AFP photo/Joe Klamar). U.S., European Powers Tangle Over Addressing Iran’s Nuclear Program An international meeting to discuss Iran’s nuclear activities heard different recommendations from U.S. and European officials this week in Vienna. The United States has pushed the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors to set an Oct. 31 deadline for Iran to address all concerns about its nuclear program. If the agency was not satisfied by that time, the board could refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, under the U.S. plan. ..Full Story

South Africa Target of Attempts to Smuggle WMD-Related Items, Report Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — South Africa has become an “important trans-shipment point” for countries seeking to illicitly obtain dual-use technologies, according to a report released lsat week by the Institute for Science and International Security (see GSN, Sept. 9)...Full Story

CIA Nominee Calls for Improved Human Intelligence, Analytic Capabilities By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Representative Porter Goss (R-Fla.), the White House nominee to lead the CIA, yesterday stressed the need to improve the agency’s human intelligence and analytic capabilities, saying it could take more than five years to do so (see GSN, Sept. 14)...Full Story

	Wednesday, September 15, 2004

CIA Nominee Calls for Improved Human Intelligence, Analytic Capabilities By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — U.S. Representative Porter Goss (R-Fla.), the White House nominee to lead the CIA, yesterday stressed the need to improve the agency’s human intelligence and analytic capabilities, saying it could take more than five years to do so (see GSN, Sept. 14). During a confirmation hearing held by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Goss said that by improving such capabilities, the CIA could prevent mistakes in the future such as those that led to the agency’s flawed assessment of prewar Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction. This summer, the Senate intelligence panel released a report saying that most of assessments contained in the CIA’s 2002 National Intelligence Estimate about Iraq’s alleged WMD efforts either “overstated, or were not supported by” the available information. “The two major things we learned is we didn’t have enough collection. Obviously, we all know we didn’t have that close-in access for plans and intentions, therefore we didn’t have enough for the analysts to work with. And what they did work with they did not work with in a creative enough way,” Goss said yesterday. When asked about the status of the CIA’s human intelligence capabilities, Goss gave the agency a score of three out of 10. While saying that some progress could be made on improving such capabilities within five years, he warned lawmakers that the “great bulk” of work needed would take even longer. “In terms of global eyes-and-ears coverage on the core mission, which is close-in access to the plans and intention of the enemy, the mischief-makers, and other things we need to know in this country for our national security, it’s a long build-out, a long haul,” he said. Goss also said there was a need to foster a less risk-adverse culture among intelligence analysts. “I certainly believe in the analytical side there is more hesitation about being bold and being innovative because a lot of people feel that they don’t want to take the risk of being wrong, of getting outside the box, of doing the daring, as it were, because they're worried the sky will fall on them,” he said. “A lot of people don’t understand that the nature of intelligence business is if you are going out for win-win situations, you don’t want to be in the intelligence business. That’s what it’s not about.  You’ve got to take the risk,” Goss added. Goss said that if he were confirmed, he would give intelligence analysts “the chance to make mistakes out there.” “Frankly, if I am confirmed as DCI [director of central intelligence], I’ll probably be up here explaining to you, hopefully in closed session, about why something went wrong. But sometimes the things that only have a 50 percent chance of success are worth doing,” he added. Goss’s confirmation hearing was held yesterday as lawmakers work to implement the intelligence reform recommendations put forth this summer by the Sept. 11 commission — including the White House-backed proposal to create a national intelligence director to oversee the U.S. intelligence community. Democratic lawmakers yesterday questioned Goss’s commitment to reform, noting that he had not introduced legislation on the issue until the last few months. Goss, though, rejected such criticism. “I don’t think there’s any question about my commitment to reform. I’m totally committed.  I wouldn’t be sitting here if I didn’t think we were going to have reform of the intelligence community and the opportunity,” he said. Goss, the former chairman of the House intelligence committee, sought to explain his lack of legislative history on intelligence reform, in part, because of a previous lack of “attention” on the issue. His explanation, though, resulted in a sharp rebuke from Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). “Let me tell you, sir, I just think that’s a hit-your-forehead-kind of answer. You’re the chairman of the committee. Of course you can get attention if you lay out a bold, aggressive kind of proposal. And that’s what you get gavels for,” Wyden said. Goss, completing his eighth congressional term, is not seeking re-election to his House seat. He also faced questions over possible concerns that he would be too partisan if approved as CIA director. Among those raising such concerns was Senator Jay Rockefeller (W.Va.), the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee, who has long expressed concern that Goss was too political of a choice on the part of the White House. “You have made a number of statements relative to intelligence matters, many in the past year, that are highly, in my judgment, partisan and display a willingness on your part to use intelligence issues as a political broadsword against members of the Democratic Party,” Rockefeller told Goss yesterday. As an example, Rockefeller cited an op-ed piece on intelligence written in March critical of Democratic presidential nominee Senator John Kerry (Mass.) For his part Goss, who received praise and support throughout yesterday’s hearing from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers, pledged to be objective and nonpartisan. “You have my word on that,” he said. Goss also said that, if confirmed, he believed he could continue to serve as CIA director were Kerry to win the November presidential election. “That would be up to President-elect Kerry’s decision. But of course.  I believe I can serve, do the job as the DCI that I have been nominated for, for any administration. The job is a capabilities job,” Goss said. While some Democratic senators have expressed concern over the White House’s choice of Goss as director of central intelligence, there has been no sign of outright opposition. According to reports today, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) has indicated support for holding a vote on Goss’s confirmation next week. Back to top       NRC Unable to Verify That Nuclear Plants Meet Security Requirements, GAO Say U.S. congressional auditors said yesterday that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is unable to verify that all U.S. nuclear power plants are taking the required safeguards needed to protect against possible terrorist attacks (see GSN, Aug. 6). During a hearing held by a House Government Reform subcommittee, officials from the Government Accountability Office described the NRC’s oversight of plant security as a “paper review” that was inadequate in ensuring that industry security plans met increased requirements established after the Sept. 11 attacks. In addition, security exercises to evaluate plant guard forces are not expected to be completed at all U.S. nuclear plants until late 2007, GAO officials said. NRC officials, however, criticized the GAO’s findings, saying that inspections hours at plants have increased and that physical reviews have been conducted on 80 percent of the security items plant operators must address. “We are there where the rubber meets the road when it comes to inspections,” commission Executive Director for Operations Luis Reyes said (H. Josef Hebert, Associated Press/Philadelphia Inquirer, Sept. 15). Back to top       Survey Says: Many U.S. Citizens Would Not Cooperate With Officials During Terrorist Attack A survey of 2,545 randomly selected U.S. adults found that a majority does not trust the government to take care of them during a smallpox attack, while a substantial minority would also take many matters into their own hands during a “dirty bomb” incident. Two-fifths of respondents to a survey sponsored by the New York Academy of Medicine said they would follow instructions to go to a public vaccination site in a smallpox outbreak and three-fifths said would stay in a building other than their home after an explosion involving radioactive material. The researchers, however, said that the public’s unwillingness to accept government direction during such an emergency could stem from officials’ lack of understanding of individuals’ motivations during crisis. “It’s not that the rest of the people want to be uncooperative,” said lead investigator Roz Lasker, Director of the Center and of the Academy’s Division of Public Health. “The problem is that current plans unwittingly put them in extremely difficult decision-making predicaments. So even if first responders work out all of the challenging logistics, far fewer people would be protected than planners want or the public deserves” (New York Academy of Medicine release, Sept. 14). 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U.S., European Powers Tangle Over Addressing Iran’s Nuclear Program An international meeting to discuss Iran’s nuclear activities heard different recommendations from U.S. and European officials this week in Vienna. The United States has pushed the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors to set an Oct. 31 deadline for Iran to address all concerns about its nuclear program. If the agency was not satisfied by that time, the board could refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, under the U.S. plan.  Meanwhile, European negotiators have circulated separate recommendations that would give the process more time, the Financial Times reported (see GSN, Sept. 14). Under the U.S. proposal, which U.S. and European diplomats said has not been formally placed before the board, Tehran would be given until Oct. 31 to comply or face nuclear-related sanctions that would, for example, break off Russia’s cooperation on the Bushehr nuclear power project in southern Iran. Broader economic sanctions could follow, the Times reported. U.S. officials, according to the Times, privately expressed frustration with the European approach. One official said the agency board meeting was likely to “kick the can down the road” even though EU officials admitted they believed, as the United States does, that Iran intends to develop a nuclear weapons capability (Dinmore/Dombey, Financial Times, Sept. 14). In recent days, diplomats at the meeting had suggested that the United States and the European Union were making progress in drafting language for a resolution that both parties could support. However, the latest European draft, obtained by the Associated Press and being circulated informally yesterday, was nearly identical to the one that France, Germany and the United Kingdom had come up with Friday and that U.S. officials had said would be unacceptable. A U.S. official denied that the latest developments were a setback for Washington. “Not everybody is happy, but not everybody is going to be happy” with the U.S. insistence on a tougher stance with Iran, he said, but “I think things are moving in our direction.” A diplomat representing an EU country said part of the problem was that U.S. officials proposed modifications after the Europeans thought the United States had accepted the original European draft. “We thought we had something with the Americans and they came in with further amendments,” said the diplomat (George Jahn, Associated Press/Philadelphia Inquirer, Sept. 15). Back to top       South Africa Target of Attempts to Smuggle WMD-Related Items, Report Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — South Africa has become an “important trans-shipment point” for countries seeking to illicitly obtain dual-use technologies, according to a report released lsat week by the Institute for Science and International Security (see GSN, Sept. 9). “South Africa’s enforcement of export controls needs to be improved. Proliferant states such as Pakistan have targeted South Africa to obtain controlled nuclear items,” says the report, written by ISIS research analyst Jacob Blackford. U.S. officials and arms control experts, though, said today that South Africa should not be singled out as a source of particular concern related to illicit transfers of dual-use technologies. The report details the case of Asher Karni, an Israeli citizen living in South Africa who was arrested by U.S. authorities early this year for allegedly helping a Pakistani company illicitly acquire triggered spark gaps, which can be used in both civilian applications and nuclear weapons and require U.S governmental approval before they can be exported to countries of nuclear proliferation concern (see GSN, May 24). Karni is suspected of having used a front company based in South Africa to obtain the spark gaps and to then re-export them to Pakistan. The report also lists several other transactions where Karni allegedly attempted to help both Pakistan and India to obtain controlled dual-use items by offering to re-export them from South Africa. While the ISIS report says it is unknown as to how many of these attempts succeeded, it does note that a freight forwarder used by Karni told U.S. authorities that he had made a number of previous shipments to Pakistan prior to his January arrest. In addition to the Karni case, there have been several arrests in South Africa throughout the year of suspects believed to have been involved in the international nuclear network revealed earlier this year by top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who has confessed to transferring nuclear-related technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. The most recent development came last week, when two German men who are permanent South African residents appeared in court on charges related to the possession, manufacture and export of uranium enrichment equipment.   The International Atomic Energy Agency earlier this month sent a team of inspectors to South Africa to investigate the various alleged nuclear smuggling incidents, according to Agence France-Presse. AFP quoted a South African nonproliferation official as promising today full cooperation with the agency’s efforts. “We will cooperate with the (International Atomic Energy Agency) in every way,” Abdul Samad Minty, head of the South African Council for the Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction was quoted as saying. According to the ISIS report, South Africa’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group — a multilateral export control regime that governs trade in nuclear-related technology — may have made it easier for the country to be used as a trans-shipment point for illicit dual-use exports. By being a NSG member, the report says, South Africa is able to receive dual-use exports from other group members with fewer restrictions than a transfer from a NSG member to a nonmember. “Membership in the NSG requires adequate export controls and these controls failed in this case,” the report says. “When determining if an export is allowed, NSG members should consider the effectiveness of the recipient state’s export control regime even if that state is an NSG member.” Blackford said today that while South Africa has had export control legislation in place since the early 1990s, there was clear evidence in court documents on the Karni case that Karni had not viewed South Africa’s export control system as much of a hurdle to be overcome. A U.S. State Department official today described the nuclear smuggling arrests in South Africa as one facet of the investigation into the international nuclear network — an investigation the official described as peeling back the layers of an onion. “This is where this peel of the onion took us,” the official said. South Africa’s domestic export control system is not of special concern to the United States, the State Department official said, praising South African officials for their assistance in the international nuclear network investigation. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington, said today that the ISIS report highlights a “broader problem” that affects other industrialized countries with the capability to produce dual-use items, as well as South Africa. The report demonstrates a need to improve both the Nuclear Suppliers Group and domestic export control regulations, Kimball said, adding that such improvements could be made by making NSG guidelines legally binding and by requiring group members to regularly report dual-use transfers to the IAEA. Back to top       North Korea to Delay Nuclear Talks Until After U.S. Election North Korean officials told a visiting British diplomat that they would wait until the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election to resume six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear program, the diplomat said yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 14). “The North Koreans were saying they were still committed to the six-party talks process, but weren’t prepared to commit to a date,” said Foreign Office minister Bill Rammell.  One factor in their decision to delay negotiations “is the timing of the American presidential election,” Rammell told Reuters. “I made clear to them my view that whoever wins the presidential election — whether it’s President Bush or Senator Kerry — North Korea will be faced with broadly the same strategic policy from the United States, and this isn’t just about the United States.” U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday said North Korea was unlikely to benefit from its decision to delay resuming talks. “I wouldn’t waste the time waiting for something different to happen,” said Powell. “It’s my belief that they will see the same group of individuals working on this problem after the first week of November” (James Brooke, New York Times, Sept. 15). Meanwhile, British Ambassador David Slinn and diplomats from the Czech Republic, the European Union, India, Mongolia, Poland, Russia and Sweden have been given permission by Pyongyang to visit the site of Thursday’s explosion near the North Korea-China border tomorrow, Kyodo news agency quoted Slinn as saying. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is being very cooperative,” Slinn told Reuters. Powell said yesterday that Pyongyang’s explanation of the blast as demolition work for a hydroelectric project is plausible. “The information they gave is consistent with what we saw, that it might have been demolition work for a hydroelectric facility,” Powell said (Reuters/Washington Post, Sept. 15). Elsewhere, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, in a rare statement to parliament’s intelligence committee, said the explosion and resulting mushroom-shaped cloud may have been due to a combination of demolition work and atmospheric clouds, Reuters reported. “There is a possibility of demolition work for a hydroelectric plant in the Kimhyungjik county and also a possibility of natural clouds of peculiar shape,” intelligence officials told lawmakers (Reuters/New York Times, Sept. 15). Back to top       IAEA Inspectors to Return to South Korea This Week The International Atomic Energy Agency is set to send team of inspectors to South Korea this week to continue the agency’s investigations into recently disclosed experiments by South Korean scientists involving enriched uranium and plutonium, sources said yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 14). The mission is expected to last about a week and include IAEA inspectors conducting environmental sampling where the experiments occurred and interviewing South Korean scientists, according to sources. In Vienna, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said Monday that he hoped the agency could complete its investigation into the South Korean issue by November, “but if not, we will continue” (Ryu Jin, Korea Times, Sept. 15). Back to top

Airborne Laser Could Reach Two Milestones Next Year The U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s Airborne Laser program could achieve two important progress markers by the end of next year, the program’s director told Aerospace Daily & Defense Report (see GSN, Aug. 20). Northrop Grumman’s kill laser could be lit for the first time and Lockheed Martin’s beam control/fire control system could be flight tested. Both technologies are necessary to the program’s survival. “I’m feeling pretty good about it right now,” program director Col. Ellen Pawlikowski said Monday. “In both cases, there are a number of tests and activities that need to be done, so I’m not absolutely, 100-percent confident that we’ll make it, but we’re going to give it our best shot.” The agency has “put us on notice,” according to Powlikowski, “that we need to get those two milestones done.” Failure to do so could prompt the agency or Congress to terminate or cut back the program, she added (Marc Selinger, Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, Sept. 15). Back to top       Missile Defense Agency Hopes to Develop Space-Based Test Bed by 2012 The U.S. Missile Defense Agency issued a draft environmental assessment last week in which it, “contemplates the development of a space-based test bed” in 2012, Inside Missile Defense reported (see GSN, Feb. 23). The agency in December 2002 announced plans to develop the test bed as a component of its Kinetic Energy Interceptor program, according to Inside Missile Defense. In months following that announcement, the agency said it would not pursue the space-based idea and would instead focus on land- and sea-based platforms. Last week’s assessment notes that KEI, “is a potential space-based defensive weapon to counter threat ballistic missiles during boost phase” (Thomas Duffy, Inside Missile Defense, Sept. 15).   Back to top

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