U.S. Representative Tom Lantos (shown in a Jan. 11 photo) yesterday urged North Korea and the Bush administration to consider Libya’s WMD dismantlement as a model for resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis (AFP photo/Frederic Brown). Libyan Disarmament Could Serve as Model for North Korean Crisis, U.S. Lawmaker Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Libya’s decision to renounce weapons of mass destruction, and its subsequent dismantlement of its weapons programs, could provide models for resolving the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, a senior U.S. lawmaker said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 26)...Full Story

North Korea Unlikely to Export Nuclear Weapons, Fissile Materials, Report Finds North Korea is unlikely to export nuclear weapons or fissile material, despite reported evidence indicating that Pyongyang might have sold uranium hexafluoride to Libya, according to a report release last week by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies (see GSN, Feb. 2)...Full Story

Silo Malfunction Doomed U.S. Missile Defense Test Yesterday’s failed test of the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense system occurred when the interceptor missile received an erroneous abort message just seconds before its launch, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Feb. 14)...Full Story

	Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Iran, North Korea Intelligence Lacking, Senior Senate Intelligence Committee Members Say U.S. intelligence on Iran and North Korea remains inadequate in the face escalating tensions with those countries, the two senior members of the Senate intelligence committee said yesterday (see GSN, Feb. 14). The CIA’s National Intelligence Council has ordered the first update of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran in four years, as well as another assessment of its WMD programs, both of which are expected next month, according to Reuters. “It suggests to me that in terms of available personnel and available analysts, the lack of human intelligence and what we’ve come to in declining budgets in previous administrations, that we were stretched very thin,” said Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kansas), chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. “We had other irons in the fire, i.e. Afghanistan and Iraq.” The Bush administration aim of seeking the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program may no longer be realistic, Roberts also told Reuters. “They have whatever capability they have, and they insist that they are going to continue with that and I think that’s the way it is,” Roberts said. “I’m not sure that asking them to recant, take that capability down, live with their surrounding neighbors in peace and stability. ... I don’t think that’s in the cards.” Senator John Rockefeller (D-West Va.), the ranking Democrat on the committee, agreed that intelligence on both countries was inadequate. “If we were to have anything, it would be wholly insufficient as to the magnitude of what we face in either of those countries,” Rockefeller said. Roberts said President George W. Bush is likely to nominate a new director of national intelligence after a presidential commission studying WMD intelligence issues a report next month. Possible candidates include commission co-chairman U.S. appellate judge Laurence Silberman and commission member William Studeman, according to Reuters (David Morgan, Reuters, Feb. 14). Back to top

Libyan Disarmament Could Serve as Model for North Korean Crisis, U.S. Lawmaker Says By Mike Nartker Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — Libya’s decision to renounce weapons of mass destruction, and its subsequent dismantlement of its weapons programs, could provide models for resolving the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, a senior U.S. lawmaker said yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 26). Representative Tom Lantos (Calif.), the top Democrat on the House International Relations Committee, said he hoped Pyongyang would see the benefits Libya has received from its decision. Chief among those is Tripoli’s continuing reintegration into the international community, he said. “I believe that our experience with Libya has great potential to lure North Korea out of its shell, and to help bring about a fundamental change in U.S.-North Korean relations,” said Lantos, who led a U.S. delegation to North Korea last month. Lantos noted the similarities between North Korea and Libya prior to Tripoli ceasing WMD development, including international isolation and the burden of economic sanctions. “North Korea now has the same opportunity as Libya to make a dramatic and bold decision to reverse course and to join the community of civilized nations,” he said. North Korean leaders have publicly rejected any comparison between the two countries, and Lantos said that was the case during initial meetings with officials in Pyongyang. “By the end of my visit, I believe I had opened their minds on the subject.” Lantos called on Pyongyang to indicate its willingness to permanently abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and to allow international inspections to verify that such efforts have ended. In return, the United States is prepared to “normalize relations” with North Korea, he said, describing such a move as an end to sanctions, providing Pyongyang with multilateral security guarantees and the provision of economic and energy aid. Lantos’ remarks came days after North Korea publicly announced that it possessed nuclear weapons and that it would not participate in the stalled six-party talks to resolve the crisis, which have also involved China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. The North Korean Foreign Ministry cited U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s use of the term “outpost of tyranny” to describe Pyongyang as one of its chief reasons for abandoning the talks. Describing the North Korean announcement as “immature and predictable and frivolous,” Lantos yesterday said he believed Pyongyang would resume talks on its nuclear program. “I believe that this latest announcement was simply a traditional bargaining move on their part, not an irrevocable decision,” he said. For its part, the Bush administration should incorporate lessons learned from the diplomatic tactics used to achieve Libya’s WMD disarmament, which included secret, high-level direct talks with Tripoli, Lantos said.  “I am not suggesting a fundamental revision of U.S. policy towards North Korea, only changes in approach designed to maximize the chances of success,” he said. While supporting the multilateral approach the White House has so far used in dealing with North Korea, Lantos called for a U.S. negotiator to be sent to the six-party talks “who has the authority to negotiate, not simply lecture.” “It is the nature, the approach, the atmosphere … which can make enormous difference,” he said, asking the administration to refrain from “inflammatory” remarks toward Pyongyang. In addition, the United States should examine the use of “informal settings” in its dealings with Pyongyang, Lantos said, noting his own experiences with North Korean officials. “My best progress … was achieved over dinner, not in formal meetings,” he said. Back to top       North Korea Unlikely to Export Nuclear Weapons, Fissile Materials, Report Finds North Korea is unlikely to export nuclear weapons or fissile material, despite reported evidence indicating that Pyongyang might have sold uranium hexafluoride to Libya, according to a report release last week by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies (see GSN, Feb. 2). A potential transfer of such materials from North Korea to states or terrorist organizations is of concern to the United States and other countries. That fear has been boosted by recent reports that U.S. scientists found evidence that North Korea provided uranium hexafluoride to Libya. The report notes, however, that exporting uranium hexafluoride is not equivalent to exporting nuclear weapons or fissile material. Furthermore, the report adds that North Korea is unlikely to export such items because its current stockpile of fissile material is relatively small and valuable if Pyongyang is seeking a nuclear deterrent. In addition, the report maintains that the risk and cost of exposure for transferring such materials are unacceptably high for the North Korean regime. However, an increase of Pyongyang’s fissile material stockpile would increase the likelihood of export, according to the report. While North Korea has a uranium enrichment program, according to the report, there is no indication that it is operating a large-scale uranium enrichment facility. Pyongyang is probably years away from operating an enrichment facility, the report says. U.S. intelligence estimates indicate that North Korea has possessed enough weapon-grade plutonium for one or two nuclear weapons since the early 1990s. In addition, North Korea probably reprocessed plutonium from 8,000 spent fuel rods sometime after the collapse of the Agreed Framework, providing enough material for another five to six bombs. Pyongyang has also been operating a reactor in Yongbyon since late February 2003 that can produce enough plutonium for about one bomb per year. According to the report, however, there is no evidence that the reactor has been powered down for removal of spent fuel for reprocessing (Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute report, Feb. 11). Back to top       North Korea Probably Has No Nuclear Weapons Delivery System, South Korean Intelligence Says North Korea’s claims of possessing a nuclear arsenal are credible, but Pyongyang is not likely to have a reliable delivery system for such weapons, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said today (see GSN, Feb. 14). “North Korea might have developed one or two conventional nuclear bombs, but if it did, it may not have the technology to launch them on missile[s],” the Yonhap news agency quoted the confidential report to parliament as saying. The report also dismissed an earlier claim by Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan that he had witnessed a nuclear warhead mounted on a missile during a visit to the country. “We believe North Korea has not acquired enough technology to miniaturize nuclear bombs which must weigh less than 500 kilograms to be mounted on missile,” the report says (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Feb. 14). Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon yesterday agreed to continue encouraging North Korea to return to six-party talks aimed at ending the ongoing standoff over its nuclear program, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said after the two met in Washington, AFP reported. Rice is scheduled to meet Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura this weekend, according to AFP. Boucher said the United States remains opposed to offering incentives to North Korea. “We and the others agree that this is not the moment to start changing the playbook ... that the North Koreans shouldn’t be rewarded for causing difficulties in the reconvening of talks,” he said. White House spokesman Scott McClellan neither confirmed nor denied a New York Times article yesterday that Washington has been developing new strategies to cut off North Korea’s remaining sources of income. “North Korea cannot be allowed to continue its illegal and illicit activities,” he said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Feb. 15). South Korean Foreign Minister Ban expressed no willingness to participate in such measures, Reuters reported. “At this time we need to intensify our diplomatic efforts,” he said after meeting with Rice. “We will continue our efforts through peaceful and diplomatic (means)” (Arshad Mohammed, Reuters, Feb. 14). Chinese analysts said yesterday that China is wary of further isolating Kim Jong Il’s regime, fearing its collapse or other erratic behavior, USA Today reported. “It’s so difficult to predict. The leaders in Pyongyang are such bizarre people,” said international relations professor Shi Yinhong of People’s University in Beijing. Chinese leaders are angry over North Korea’s latest threats to withdraw from talks, Shi said. Beijing has not, however, indicated willingness to support economic pressure. “My government is still quite reluctant to use economic leverage,” Shi said. “It is a little risky.  Hard pressure may backfire.” Wang Jiarui, head of the international department of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee, is scheduled to visit Pyongyang this week to press Pyongyang to resume negotiations, Hong Kong-based media reported, according to USA Today (David Lynch, USA Today, Feb. 15). Back to top       Iran, EU Express Hope for Nuclear Agreement Iranian and European Union leaders said today they were hopeful the ongoing negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program would lead to a settlement, Agence France-Presse reported (see GSN, Feb. 14). Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi said Iran must find a “mechanism” to reassure the European body that its nuclear program is not arms-related and “we are hopeful it would lead to a very fruitful agreement.” Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, said it was essential for “Iran to step away from direct access to nuclear weapons.” Kharazi is scheduled to arrive in Luxembourg today for talks, AFP reported. “The discussions will broach the European Union’s relations with Iran, bilateral relations as well as recent negotiations in Geneva on Tehran’s nuclear program,” Luxembourg announced in a statement (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Feb. 15). Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Hassan Rohani said yesterday that he hoped the EU would resist U.S. pressure in the negotiations, Iranian state media reported. “The Americans, based on their record, do not want issues affecting them such as the current (nuclear) issue to be settled by others and can therefore be expected to put Iran’s peaceful nuclear activities in a bad light as well as put pressure on Europe to toe its line,” he said (IRNA/BBC Monitoring, Feb. 15). Back to top       Straw Backs Pakistan’s Handling of Khan Case British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said yesterday that he believed Pakistan was adequately investigating the international nuclear smuggling network formerly headed by top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan (see GSN, Feb. 14). Following talks with Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf and other senior officials, Straw said he was confident in Pakistan’s handling of the case despite its refusal to allow other countries or the International Atomic Energy Agency access to Khan, Agence France-Presse reported. “I have not directly raised the matter with the Pakistanis but we have very substantial confidence in President Musharraf and the Pakistani government about the way in which they are dealing with the issue in the aftermath of Dr. Khan,” Straw said (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Feb. 14). Meanwhile, Indian intelligence has claimed that several Pakistani scientists covertly traveled to Saudi Arabia in the last few months disguised as participants in the Haj pilgrimage, the Indian newspaper The Statesman reported. The scientists, who stayed in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, went missing for two to three weeks, the Statesman reported. Indian intelligence has also detected movement of several Saudi C-130 transport planes between a Saudi air base and several Pakistani cities, according to the Statesman. Pakistani and Saudi nuclear scientists were in “contact” during this period, the Statesman reported  (Arun Anand, The Statesman, Feb. 15). Back to top

Pentagon Has Frozen CW Disposal Funds, Group Says A budget analysis conducted by a Kentucky watchdog organization, the Chemical Weapons Working Group, has found that the U.S. Defense Department has impounded more than $400 million designated for the construction of two chemical weapons disposal sites, the Lexington Herald-Leader reported today (see GSN, Jan. 26). The Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment on why the funding, intended to construct neutralization facilities in Colorado and Kentucky, has been frozen, according to the Herald-Leader. The proposed federal fiscal 2006 budget now only includes $31 million for the two sites. Colorado’s U.S. senators, Wayne Allard (R) and Ken Salazar (D), last week called on the Pentagon to release the funds and allow construction to begin at a depot in Pueblo, Colo. “It is unconscionable to me that the Department of Defense wants to delay this project when the Congress has provided ample funding during the past two appropriations cycles,” Allard said in a statement (Peter Mathews, Lexington Herald-Leader, Feb. 15). Back to top       Anniston Has Destroyed 58 Percent of Sarin Stocks The U.S. Army’s Anniston Chemical Depot in Alabama by Feb. 10 had destroyed 58 percent of its sarin stockpile, nearly 510,000 pounds of the chemical agent, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Jan. 20). Disposal began in 2003. Workers at the facility this year plan to eliminate sarin-filled artillery shells, and have begun to destroy 8-inch munitions, AP reported. They are later set to destroy sarin-filled 155 mm and 105 mm artillery shells (Associated Press, Feb. 14). Back to top       Oak Ridge National Laboratory Develops Chemical Detection System for Water Supplies U.S. researchers have developed a new system that uses algae to determine whether water supplies have been contaminated with chemical agents, the Indian newspaper The Statesman reported today (see GSN, Jan. 4). The system, developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, measures the fluorescence of the algae in the water, according to the Statesman. “Depending upon whether the water is healthy or it has been exposed to poison, the fluorescence signature changes. It is that change in signature that we use as the detection method for detecting the presence of chemical warfare agents,” said Eli Greenbaum of the laboratory’s Chemical Sciences Division (The Statesman, Feb. 15). Back to top

Silo Malfunction Doomed U.S. Missile Defense Test Yesterday’s failed test of the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense system occurred when the interceptor missile received an erroneous abort message just seconds before its launch, the New York Times reported (see GSN, Feb. 14). Scientists believe electronic monitoring equipment or some other device in the silo may have sent the command, said Missile Defense Agency spokesman Rick Lehner. A Dec. 15 flight test also failed when the interceptor did not launch, but for different reasons, according to the Times. There is no schedule yet for another test, Lehner said.  Congress is set to begin considering a Defense Department budget of $419.3 billion for fiscal 2006, and some have criticized the Bush administration for even considering deploying an untested missile defense system. “It’s as if Henry Ford started up his automobile production line and began selling cars without ever taking one for a test drive,” said David Wright, co-director for the Union of Concerned Scientists’ global security program (David Stout, New York Times, Feb. 15). Wright said in a statement that the failed test indicated “the program is being pushed ahead for political reasons regardless of its capability.” Defense officials said the last two tests were more technologically challenging than prior efforts. “This was a much more robust and difficult test,” said Chris Taylor, another Missile Defense Agency spokesman (Ann Scott Thomas, Washington Post, Feb. 15). Back to top       Japanese Cabinet Approves Missile Defense Bill A law approved by the Japanese Cabinet today would allow the head of the country’s Defense Agency to order the military to destroy incoming missiles without first seeking governmental approval, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, Jan. 10). “Lately, there are more countries equipped with missiles. We need to deal with the situation immediately if a missile were to be launched at Japan,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda. The bill is expected to go to parliament later this week, said Yu Kameoka, a spokesman for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Under current Japanese law, the prime minister must seek permission from the Cabinet before activating the military, and parliament must give its approval for mobilization after the fact, according to AP. Hosoda said Japan probably would not have a complete missile defense system for several years. He added that the failure of a U.S. missile defense test yesterday would not affect the joint U.S.-Japan missile defense program because it is based on different technology (Chisaki Watanabe, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Feb. 15). Back to top       Persian Gulf Countries Studying Acquisition of Patriot Missile System Upgrade Lockheed Martin Corp. announced today that several Persian Gulf nations have expressed interest in its upgraded Patriot Advanced Capability 3 antiballistic missile batteries, United Press International reported (see GSN, Feb. 7) “We have made presentations on the system to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and [the United Arab Emirates],” said Ben Hobson, senior manager of the Air and Missile Defense, International Business Development division. “Riyadh and Kuwait are studying the offer, but they have not made any decision yet,” he added (United Press International, Feb. 15). Back to top

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