Fuses mistakenly shipped to Taiwan in 2006 are designed to fit on the tip of a Minuteman ICBM, shown above (U.S. Air Force photo). U.S. Asked Taiwan to Discard Nuclear Missile Fuses, Official Says The United States requested that Taiwan discard four nuclear missile fuses sent to the island accidentally in August 2006 before grasping the significance of the parts and requesting their repatriation, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, March 25). The U.S. Defense Department yesterday said it had shipped the fuses in place of helicopter batteries ordered by Taiwan.  The Pentagon believed the parts were nonsensitive equipment during months of communication with Taiwan regarding the order, and officials here learned only this month that the mistake involved electronic ICBM components. “The U.S. recently informed us that the parts had been mistakenly sent to Taiwan, and they asked us to dispose [of] the parts by ourselves,” Taiwanese armaments chief Wu Wei-rong said today.  ..Full Story

Time Crucial in N. Korea Nuclear Standoff, U.S. Says The next few weeks could show if North Korea is willing to provide a full accounting of its nuclear program, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said yesterday (see GSN, March 24)...Full Story

Future Unclear for Missile Defense The Bush administration has spent tens of billions of dollars on U.S. missile defense efforts, but the future of the program is cloudy as the country prepares for a new president, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, March 25)...Full Story

	Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Experts Differ on Primary Terror Threats Counterterrorism experts urge the United States to take measures against a wide range of terrorist threats, but they continue to disagree over which forms of attack pose the greatest danger, United Press International reported yesterday (see GSN, March 4). U.S. dependency on imported food makes the country more vulnerable to an attack on its food supply than to than to other possible threats, said Minh Luong, assistant director of Yale University’s international security program.  He listed biological or chemical strikes and sniper or computer-based attacks as the other top threats. “The [U.S. Food and Drug Administration] was given approval for more inspectors and analysts, but there’s no coordination with foreign food suppliers and it’s hard to inspect all containers,” Luong said. “The goal of terrorism is to get people worried.  It can be very random.  Terrorists only have to tamper with one container on a cargo ship,” he said.  “People aren’t making the connection between terrorism and the food supply.” Luong noted that any response to a chemical or biological attack would be delayed as the weapon agent is identified. John Wohlstetter, a fellow at the Discovery Institute, expressed concerns about the possible detonation of a radiological “dirty bomb” inside a major urban area.  The blast radius of such a weapon would extend for only one or two city blocks, but radioactive material could be spread across a much wider area, he said. “With the potential for panic, more could die in what comes afterward than in the bomb explosion.  Sensationalist news reports and the Internet sow panic among people for whom radiation is automatically presumed highly toxic,” he said, suggesting that reckless driving and rioting could result. The ultimate terrorism weapons would be a nuclear bomb or highly virulent disease agent, Wohlstetter said. “One nuclear attack would scar us permanently,” he stated. However, he said that nuclear material is generally well secured and requires a great deal of sophistication to move.  In addition, nuclear material inside any Cold War-era weapons that might have gone missing would have deteriorated since the collapse of the Soviet Union. “Terror groups would essentially require the support of a state to develop a nuclear bomb,” he said.  Wohlstetter added, though, that “every dollar spent to deter is worthwhile” (Megan Harris, United Press International, March 25). Back to top

U.S. Intel Assessments Face Stricter Checks The U.S. intelligence community is tightening its source-checking procedures for periodic assessments representing the consensus of its 16 member agencies on controversial issues, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, March 6). The updated procedures are being implemented in the wake of controversies surrounding one assessment’s support of Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction before the U.S.-led invasion and an assertion disclosed last December that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 (see GSN, March 10). Intelligence officials who compile information for National Intelligence Estimates must now complete a second review of the reliability of various communication intercepts, agent reports and aerial and satellite photography being considered for use in the assessments, Deputy National Intelligence Director Thomas Fingar told the Council on Foreign Relations at a recent meeting of the independent group. “Each of the collection agencies has to submit a written report addressing each of the items that they produce that is used,” Fingar said.  “Do they still stand by it?  Do they have any doubts about it?  Have any questions been raised about the source?” The stricter procedures would also place less priority on interagency consensus and target for elimination what Fingar called the “gratuitous references to quotations of intelligence.”  In the past, he said, intelligence officials relied too greatly on direct quotes of intelligence sources rather than on critical analysis of their claims. Before the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the intelligence community placed large emphasis on later-disproved allegations by an Iraqi defector codenamed “Curveball” that Saddam Hussein’s regime possessed mobile biological weapons laboratories (see GSN, March 21). The new system has been used in preparation of an assessment on developments in Iraq, the Post reported.  Intelligence agency chiefs within days are expected to review the document, but it appears unlikely that an unclassified version of the report would be released (Walter Pincus, Washington Post, March 26). Back to top       New Mexico Responders Conduct WMD Drills Local, state and federal emergency responders in New Mexico last week conducted two exercises to help prepare them for possible acts of WMD terrorism, the Raton Range reported (see GSN, Feb. 21). The first drill in Raton involved the search for a radiation source by personnel from the city’s police and fire and emergency services departments, the state Motor Transportation Division, the New Mexico National Guard 64th Weapons of Mass Destruction Civil Support Team and the U.S. Energy Department’s Radiological Assistance Program. The March 18 event involved multiple locations and actual radiological sources, which remained contained to ensure there was no release of radiation. “We try to make it challenging so the folks really get something out of it,” said Jimmy Ellis, regional response coordinator for the DOE team based in Albuquerque. Two days later, the emergency responders traveled to the nearby village of Angel Fire, where they helped fire officials there deal with a simulated radiological weapon. Eight Raton fire and police personnel have been grouped into a “Special Hazards and Operations Team,” one of several around the country that have received federal training on detecting and securing loose radiological or nuclear material (Todd Wildermuth, Raton Range, March 24). Back to top

U.S. Asked Taiwan to Discard Nuclear Missile Fuses, Official Says The United States requested that Taiwan discard four nuclear missile fuses sent to the island accidentally in August 2006 before grasping the significance of the parts and requesting their repatriation, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, March 25). The U.S. Defense Department yesterday said it had shipped the fuses in place of helicopter batteries ordered by Taiwan.  The Pentagon believed the parts were nonsensitive equipment during months of communication with Taiwan regarding the order, and officials here learned only this month that the mistake involved electronic ICBM components. “The U.S. recently informed us that the parts had been mistakenly sent to Taiwan, and they asked us to dispose [of] the parts by ourselves,” Taiwanese armaments chief Wu Wei-rong said today.  “The U.S. then realized the parts were sensitive, controlled items which Taiwan could not deal with, and … the parts were returned” last week, he added (Associated Press/International Herald Tribune, March 26). The 22-inch-long instruments are built into cones designed to fit on the tip of a Minuteman ICBM warhead and trigger its detonation when the missile reaches a specific height over the earth’s surface, Agence France-Presse reported. “It’s very sensitive technology because it is essentially the brain of the re-entry vehicle,” said Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons analyst at the Federation of American Scientists.  “As it comes toward the earth, it determines when the bomb goes off and that it goes off at the right height and at the right yield.” According to U.S. Principle Deputy Defense Undersecretary Ryan Henry, the components are not compatible with other weapons systems. “The specific manufacturing of this is done to be mated specifically with this weapons package,” he said.  “So you would not be able to use this in any other weapons system, nuclear or non-nuclear.  But the mechanism itself is common to many, many different weapons” (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, March 25). Kristensen called the parts “hugely important.” “For a country like China, that is trying to develop more capable systems, that would be very important material to get.  And (for) any country that is even lower on the nuclear threshold scale, having not quite gotten there, [it] would be potentially even more important,” he said. The recent finding follows a U.S. atomic security breach in September in which a B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles and  flown across the country. “You would think anything dealing with components for nuclear warheads and for major ICBMs, that sort of thing would be set in stone,” said Victoria Samson, a nuclear expert at the World Security Institute.  “And when it isn’t it makes you wonder how much care is being taken in other parts of the Pentagon’s work” (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, March 25). Retired Air Force Chief of Staff Larry Welch has said that Defense Department agencies have been taking action since 1992 to correct lax nuclear weapons handling procedures pointed out by a Defense Science Board task force, but the problems keep recurring, Time magazine reported. “In each case the deficiencies were addressed, corrective actions were implemented but they didn’t endure, they didn’t last, and over time attention faded away and then we encountered a new set of deficiencies,” Welch told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee. According to some Pentagon officials, the Defense Logistics Agency might be more at fault than the Air Force for the mistaken missile fuse shipment.  Defense Secretary Robert Gates has requested a full investigation of the incident (Mark Thompson, Time, March 25). China expressed alarm over the error and urged Washington to halt all military cooperation with Taiwan, AFP reported.  Beijing considers the island to be part of its territory and has threatened military action should Taiwan seek formal independence. “We express our serious concern and strong dissatisfaction and demand the U.S. side investigate this incident,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said in a statement. “We urge the U.S. to cease selling military hardware to Taiwan and end U.S.-Taiwan military ties, or risk harming stability in the Taiwan Strait and the healthy and stable development of China-U.S. ties,” he said (Agence France Presse III/Spacewar.com, March 26). Back to top       Time Crucial in N. Korea Nuclear Standoff, U.S. Says The next few weeks could show if North Korea is willing to provide a full accounting of its nuclear program, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said yesterday (see GSN, March 24). Submission of a “complete and correct” declaration is one of Pyongyang’s obligations under a 2007 agreement under which it would receive economic, diplomatic and security benefits in exchange for ending its atomic activities, Reuters reported. The regime said it delivered a list last year, but Washington counters that North Korea has yet to address issues such as suspected weapon-related uranium enrichment activities and nuclear exports to nations such as Syria. While North Korean officials have repeatedly indicated their desire to see the agreement carried out prior to the end of the Bush administration in January, “the question is whether they are prepared to follow through,” said Hill, chief U.S. envoy to the six-party talks. “I think the next couple weeks (are going to be) crucial in the process,” he said. Hill highlighted the rewards that Pyongyang could receive by meeting the terms of the deal, including normalized diplomatic relations with Washington, access to international funds, and possibly the right to a civilian nuclear power program after it rejoined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (Arshad Mohammed, Reuters/Washington Post, March 25). Hill said that U.S. and North Korean officials are continuing to discuss the issue through diplomatic channels involving the Stalinist state’s mission at the United Nations in New York, the Associated Press reported. “Some of these discussions, some of the specific things that we’ve been talking about, I think, could lead to a resolution of this,” he said during a discussion at the Atlantic Council in Washington. “In my view, and this is really a guess, that if the six-party talks fail, it will not be for a lack of a declaration.  We will get through this phase,” Hill said. The “big challenge” would come in the following phase of the denuclearization agreement, which requires North Korea to end its nuclear programs and give up its atomic material, Hill said (Foster Klug, Associated Press I/Miami Herald, March 25). “I think it is fair to say that there are people in North Korea who really are not with the program here, really [would] rather continue to be producing this plutonium for whatever reason,” he added. Unconfirmed reports have indicated that some North Korean military elements have opposed the denuclearization agreement, Agence France-Presse reported (Agence France-Presse I/Spacewar.com, March 25). Meanwhile, South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said his meetings this week with U.S. officials in Washington would involve discussions of strategies for resuming the six-nation negotiations, AP reported.  Diplomats from China, Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas have not conducted full sessions this year amid the standoff over the nuclear declaration. “I plan to have consultations on various ways to resume the six-way talks at an early date,” said Yu, who is scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and national security adviser Stephen Hadley (Associated Press II/Yahoo!News, March 25). The new government in Seoul today indicated that it would offer extended economic support and improved relations to its impoverished neighbor only when North Korea eliminates its nuclear programs, AFP reported. “The speed and scope of, as well as ways to push for any development in, inter-Korean relations will be decided according to progress in the North Korean nuclear issue,” said Kim Ha-joong, unification minister in the government of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who took office last month. Kim suggested that Pyongyang should not be surprised if Seoul raises the nuclear issue in talks between the two nations (Agence France-Presse II/Spacewar.com, March 26). Back to top       India Gives No Promise on U.S. Nuclear Deal Deadline India’s top foreign official hinted yesterday that his government might not resolve internal disputes over a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with the United States before a May deadline put forward by Washington, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, March 25). U.S. officials have pressured the Singh administration to quickly clear the deal with Indian communist parties, which have threatened to withdraw their support of the government and force early elections if Indian leaders move to implement the agreement. “We are trying to resolve that issue, but it may take some more time,” Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee told journalists yesterday after holding talks Monday with U.S. President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Both countries had aimed to complete the agreement in 2007, Mukherjee said. He added that the dispute in India’s parliament has been “very time consuming” and is “taxing our patience. Mukherjee could not provide a timeframe for implementing the deal, which would make U.S. nuclear fuel and technology available to India although even though the nation remains outside of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the agreement’s prospects are running up against “the realities of the congressional calendar here in the United States” and the looming presidential election. “As you get deeper into the calendar year, and therefore the congressional calendar, it becomes increasingly difficult,” he said.  “And as you have an election year, the Congress is going to be in session less time than it might otherwise have been in the fall, so you have a compressed timeframe” (Foster Klug, Associated Press/MSNBC, March 25). White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said yesterday that some time remains to implement the pact, Agence France-Presse reported. “Well, we have a little bit of time before we have to say ‘now or never,’” Perino said in response to a question yesterday.  “We’ve got several months to continue to work with them.” (Agence France-Presse/Google News, March 25). Back to top       Russian Strategic Bombers Conduct Arctic Run A pair of Russian strategic bombers flew over the Arctic and Pacific oceans in a 15-hour patrol mission today, ITAR-Tass reported (see GSN, March 20). NATO fighters intercepted the Tu-95 bombers as they approached the Alaskan coastline, but the Russian aircraft remained over international waters, said Col. Alexander Drobyshevsky, spokesman for the Russian air force (ITAR-Tass, March 26). Back to top

Future Unclear for Missile Defense The Bush administration has spent tens of billions of dollars on U.S. missile defense efforts, but the future of the program is cloudy as the country prepares for a new president, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, March 25). The federal government is likely to have directed $70 billion toward missile shield initiatives by the time President George W. Bush leaves office.  Ground-based missile interceptors have been installed in Alaska and California, supplemented by ship-based systems, radar and communications gear and technology that remains in development. Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain (Ariz.) has indicated that he would maintain the program to provide protection against nations such as Iran and North Korea and as a “hedge against potential threats” from China and Russia. The Democratic candidates for president, though, have been more skeptical.  Senator Barack Obama (Ill.) has said significantly more testing is necessary to prove the system could function and has questioned whether now is the time to deploy missile defense elements in Europe (see related GSN story, today). “If we can responsibly deploy missile defenses that would protect us and our allies, we should — but only when the system works,” Obama said last year. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has expressed similar doubts regarding the state of the system’s technology, AP reported. “Senator Clinton has expressed concern about the Bush administration’s expenditure of billions of dollars on an unproven ballistic missile defense system that has not been adequately tested or proven to work,” said spokesman Philippe Reines. As no missile defense element has been used against an actual incoming enemy missile, it cannot be known whether the system would function as anticipated in a real-world situation. “There is little or no prospect that the United States will develop a defense system that could defend against real-world, long-range missiles in the foreseeable future,” the Union of Concerned Scientists said this month, which marked the 25th anniversary of the initiation of President Ronald Reagan’s “Star Wars” program.  The current program is a significantly scaled-down version of that initiative. Backers of the system argue that it has undergone successful testing, though not in a realistic scenario involving multiple warheads that deploy decoys to throw off the missile interceptors.  They also note that missile defense systems have functioned properly against short-range weapons such as those seen during the March 2003 invasion of Iraq. “I have every confidence that faced with the basic knowledge of what we’ve accomplished and how it works and the need for it, people would be willing to continue with it,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish, former head of the Missile Defense Agency.  “Now, I’m an eternal optimist — otherwise I wouldn’t have been in the missile defense business” (Robert Burns, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, March 26). Back to top       Time Limited for Missile Defense Talks, Poland Says Poland hopes to ink a missile defense deal with the United States on hosting 10 missile interceptors before the next U.S. president is elected in November, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, March 11). “The [Bush administration’s] term expires in a few months … so it seems that if we wanted to sign an agreement, we have time until the summer,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski, who has led Warsaw’s negotiations on installation of 10 missile interceptors in Poland. If there is no deal by summer, “there may be a need to reopen the negotiations next year,” he said.  Waszczykowski said be believed the agreement would remain viable under the next president (see related GSN story, today). Poland has demanded access to U.S. air-defense systems and support for military upgrades in exchange for accepting the interceptors.  Washington also hopes soon to seal an agreement to install a radar base in the Czech Republic (see GSN, March 25; Associated Press/PR-inside, March 25). Meanwhile, U.S. officials are gearing up for midlevel talks tomorrow aimed at helping overcome Russian objections to deployment of missile defense elements in Europe, Agence France-Presse reported. The session follows proposals made last week in Moscow by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates.  One offer was to allow Russian officials to inspect the planned Czech and Polish sites. The U.S. officials also pledged that the system “will be not directed” at Russia, which has characterized any European missile defense elements as a potential threat to its strategic security, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last week. “I’m sure that transparency is going to be one of the big issues that they focus on,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.  “Anything that is mutually agreeable with us and the Russians of course has to be agreeable to the host governments” (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, March 25).   Back to top

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