Iraq:  Baghdad Admits Sanctions Violation; Cooperates With Inspectors So Far

Iraq has conceded to U.N. weapons inspectors that it tried to bypass a U.N. embargo to purchase special materials for a conventional rocket program, CNN reported today.  Iraqi officials told the United Nations in a Nov. 19 meeting that it attempted to smuggle special aluminum tubing into the country about a half dozen times, but never successfully, according to a high-ranking official close to the U.N. inspectors (see GSN, Sept. 9).

The Iraqi officials reported the diameter and thickness of the tubing they tried to procure and said that those dimensions precluded the tubes from being used to develop nuclear weapons.  Arms experts agreed that if the dimensions provided by Iraq are accurate, the tubing could not be used in uranium enrichment centrifuges, CNN reported (see GSN, Sept. 19).

“They’re saying that they violated the sanctions, which is a much lesser offense than if they had been trying to build nuclear weapons or long-range missiles,” former CIA analyst Kenneth Pollack told CNN.  “What they are trying to do is to basically plead guilty to the lesser charge in hopes that that will make it much harder for the United States to use that to build international support for a war,” Pollack said.

U.N. inspectors are looking for a more complete accounting of Iraqi weapons efforts by Dec. 8, the deadline for Iraq to submit a full accounting of its weapons activities (CNN.com, Dec. 2).

Inspections Continue

Meanwhile, inspectors conducted their fifth day of inspections in Iraq today, including the first site never visited by previous inspectors.  Officials reported that Iraq has so far cooperated fully with inspectors by providing immediate access to installations, employees and records (BBC Online, Dec. 2). 

According to various reports, experts from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency have visited about 15 sites near Baghdad in this round of post-Gulf War inspections that resumed Wednesday after a four-year lapse.

IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said yesterday that inspections have gone smoothly and have found nothing suspicious.  “What we have seen so far is that the facilities are not used for weapons programs,” he said (CNN.com, Dec. 2).

Inspectors inspected a former Scud missile component factory in Baghdad today and a distillery near Bakuba, north of Baghdad.  The inspectors did not explain why they visited the distillery, but alcohol is a common ingredient in chemical weapons, according to experts.

U.N. and IAEA teams have visited about 15 facilities since Wednesday, including sites that played past roles in Iraqi nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs as well as Iraq’s ballistic missile development and production effort.  All but one of the sites, the distillery, had been inspected and monitored by previous inspectors before they withdrew from Iraq in 1998 citing Iraqi obstructions (BBC Online).

Wednesday

International experts visited three sites Wednesday, including an industrial engineering facility, a graphite production plant and a missile test site.

The al-Tahidi Scientific Research Center, 12 miles northeast of Baghdad, assembles electric motors for cement factories and oil refineries, Iraqi officials said, but U.S. officials believe the site was historically associated with Iraq’s nuclear weapons program, according to the Washington Post.

Former senior U.N. Special Commission on Iraq official Charles Duelfer told a U.S. Senate committee in February that al-Tahidi was one of the “key facilities where (nuclear weapons) congregated.”

“These centers have legitimate rationales for their ongoing work, but the presence of teams of alumni from the nuclear weapons programs is a key tip-off,” Duelfer said.

Seven IAEA representatives spent three hours at al-Tahidi speaking with workers, examining documents and removing an air sampler installed by IAEA inspectors in 1998.

Elsewhere, UNMOVIC inspectors visited al-Rafah a complex containing a graphite production facility and a missile test stand about 15 miles southwest of Baghdad.  They hoped the missile test facility would offer clues as to whether Iraq is developing ballistic missiles with ranges exceeding the 150-kilometer limit established by the U.N. Security Council (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, Nov. 28).

The CIA accused Iraq in October of erecting a test stand that would only be necessary to test larger, prohibited missiles, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Dimitri Perricos, a senior UNMOVIC official, said the graphite plant visit was needed because graphite could be used not only to make pencils, but also missile batteries and re-entry vehicle nose cones (Los Angeles Times, Nov. 28).

Thursday

Fourteen UNMOVIC inspectors traveled Thursday to the al-Dawrah Foot and Mouth Disease Vaccine Production Laboratory, about 15 kilometers south of Baghdad to investigate the site where Iraq produced botulinum toxin before the 1991 Gulf War.  Officials were interested in the site because Iraq has never accounted for all the toxin it produced there and a British intelligence assessment released this year said there were suspicions of recent activity at the site (see GSN, Sept. 24).

Following four hours of inspection, however, the U.N. experts concluded that the plant was no longer operational, for any purposes, according to the New York Times.  It had apparently been abandoned in 1996 after U.N. officials dismantled the facility’s fermenters, containers, pressurized tubing and other equipment, the Times reported.

Also on Thursday, IAEA experts inspected an industrial complex at al-Nasr, were uranium enrichment centrifuge rotors were once manufactured as well as missile engine parts.   The facility had been heavily bombed after U.N. inspectors withdrew from Iraq in 1998 and has since been partially restored.  IAEA team leader Jacques Baute, however, said a newly constructed building identified by U.S. intelligence as suspicious appeared to be inactive.  “As far as we observed today, it seemed to be very empty,” Baute said (John Burns, New York Times, Nov. 29).

Parts of the plant that remain working are used to produce light ammunition and heavy civilian machinery, Iraqi officials said (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, Nov. 29.

Saturday

After remaining inactive Friday, inspectors set out again Saturday, visiting three sites.  UNMOVIC experts drove 90 kilometers north of Baghdad to the Balad Chemical Defense Battalion, where the Iraqi Defense Ministry trains troops to defend against WMD attacks.

UNMOVIC spokesman Hiro Ueki said the inspectors wanted to “see if any evidence of chemical weapons agents biological weapons agents were present and to see if there was any new equipment.”

The site had been inspected in the 1990s, but it was considered to be a “sensitive” site, requiring advance notification of U.N. inspections.

The inspectors spent five hours examining storage sheds, opening ordnance crates and using handheld sensors.

Meanwhile, eight IAEA experts visited two dual-use equipment production facilities, the first at Um al-Maarik, a machine tool factory which Iraqi officials said only produces parts for light machinery and vehicles.

The experts also inspected the facility at al-Meelad, formerly known as al-Furat, where centrifuge were developed.  Recent satellite imagery indicated that construction has taken place at the site since 1998 (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, Dec. 1).

Sunday

Acting on satellite imagery analysis, UNMOVIC inspectors visited a cropdusting facility Sunday at Khan Beni-Saad, 35 kilometers north of Baghdad, where pesticide-spraying helicopters are based.  The satellite information “called for a specific investigation of modified aircraft fuel tanks,” according to a U.N. spokesman (Agence France-Presse, Yahoo.com, Dec. 2). 

Onsite for five hours, the inspectors examined aircraft hangars, chemical tanks and spray nozzles at the facility.  They took samples from the tanks and downloaded files from the base director’s computer (Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post, Dec. 2)

A second team of UNMOVIC experts inspected the large al-Taji complex that houses the bin Firnas and al-Quds missile production facilities.  “We gave the inspectors every assistance and answered all their questions,” said bin Firnas director Brahim Hussein (Agence France-Presse, Yahoo.com).

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U.S. Response:  Army Plans to Double WMD Escort Unit

U.S. Army officials have decided to double the size of the service’s Technical Escort Unit, which specializes in dealing with chemical and biological materials, New Technology Week reported today (see GSN, Nov. 13).

Officials would not comment on the exact size of the unit, but “several hundred” soldiers are in the command, TEU battalion commander Lt. Col. George Lecakes said.

The group is designed to support other units — military or civilian — by detecting, disabling, transporting or disposing of chemical and biological agents, according to New Technology Week.  The unit has provided assistance in “the mailrooms of the Pentagon to the office suites in the Russell and Hart (Senate office) buildings to the White House,” Lecakes said.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is establishing a similar unit and several other countries are interested in the concept, Lecakes said.

The unit works with various protective suits in which soldiers train in high temperatures to prepare for field work, according to New Technology Week (Ann Roosevelt, New Technology Week, Dec. 2).

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U.S.-Russia:  Proliferation Threat Worsens, Experts Say

Despite broad political support for international programs to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction, many experts believe that the threat of proliferation is worsening, the Los Angeles Times reported today (see GSN, Nov. 13).

Some Russian bureaucrats and U.S. conservatives have stifled programs to secure and destroy the weapons at various sites, according to the Times (see GSN, Nov. 15).

For example, midlevel Russian officials have obstructed access to shipyards where Japanese officials have agreed to fund dismantling Russian nuclear submarines, according to the Times.

One large storage facility for Russian chemical weapons in Shchuchye, near the Kazakhstan border, is a prime target for nonproliferation efforts, according to the Times.  It holds 800 chemical-filled warheads for Scud missiles and 1.9 million shells of sarin and VX gas small enough to stash in a briefcase.  This year the U.S. Congress again restricted funds for building a weapons destruction plant at Shchuchye — granting money only until next September, the Times reported.

Legislators also killed a budget item that would have funded efforts to secure weapons of mass destruction stored outside the borders of the former Soviet Union — the province of decade-old threat reduction programs, according to the Times.

Although U.S. President George W. Bush has voiced support for nonproliferation goals, U.S. Representatives Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) and Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) and some other members of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee have repeatedly impaired such efforts, according to sources.  U.S. Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), who has worked for more than a decade to dismantle former Soviet weapons, voiced his frustration at an October Senate hearing (see GSN, Nov. 15).

“The president was under the impression, when Senator [Joseph] Biden [D-Del.] and I met with him in July, that things are on track,” Lugar said.  “But they are not on track,” he added (Sonni Efron, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 2).

Renewing Focus

Meanwhile, Lugar has indicated that he hopes to renew focus on U.S. nonproliferation programs when he becomes chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in January, the Chicago Tribune reported yesterday.

“The greatest crisis is terrorists getting their hands on weapons of mass destruction,” Lugar said.  “We ought to identify which countries have weapons of mass destruction, and as an international community, we ought to make sure that these countries have the means to make this material secure,” he added (Stephen Hedges, Chicago Tribune, Dec. 1).

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India:  Russia Agrees to Lease Nuclear Submarine

Russia recently agreed to lease a nuclear-weapon-capable submarine to India as part of a larger arms package, marking a serious advance in nuclear cooperation between the two countries, the Indian Express reported today (see GSN, Feb. 11).

The Akula II submarine will carry Klub cruise missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads more than 300 kilometers.

The two countries have reportedly kept the three-year submarine lease — which accompanies the sale of an aircraft carrier, tanks and fighter aircraft — secret because of concerns about international pressure.  The agreement was reportedly reached about 10 days ago during the New Delhi visit of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov.  The countries will similarly finalize the lease in an inconspicuous meeting, according to the Indian Express.

Indian military analysts said the move gives New Delhi a “sea-based nuclear deterrent.”  Russian experts said the lease does not violate the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty because that agreement does not prohibit the spread of nuclear submarines (Jyoti Malhotra, Indian Express, Dec. 2).

Nuclear issues are scheduled to be a key point of discussion during talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, set to begin tomorrow in New Delhi, the Press Trust of India reported yesterday.  Prior to those meetings, Russian officials agreed to allow Indian scientists access to the United Nuclear Research Institute — home to many Soviet nuclear innovations.

Indian scientists will be granted “associated member” status, according to institute director Vladimir Kadyshevsky.  China is seeking membership in the institute and the United States is also likely to be granted associate member status, the Press Trust of India reported yesterday (Press Trust of India, Dec. 1).

Meanwhile, Indian President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam promoted his country’s nuclear program, saying “strength respects strength.”

“You cannot sit idle when your neighbor is developing armament,” Kalam said, in an apparent reference to Pakistan.

“India is now a nuclear weapon state,” Kalam said when asked about nonproliferation issues (Press Trust of India II, Dec. 1).

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Pakistan:  Putin Questions Islamabad’s Nuclear Security

Despite assurances and security measures issued by Pakistani officials, there is a danger that Pakistani nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of “bandits and terrorists,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week (see GSN, March 18).

“We take note of the statements made by President [Pervez] Musharraf that the military potential of his country is safely protected, strictly under control.  But, to be frank, our concerns, our anxiety, still persist,” Putin said (Amit Baruah, Hindu, Dec. 1).

Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee echoed Putin’s comments, saying that an infiltration of the Pakistani nuclear stockpile would result in a “disastrous threat.”

“This matter raised by President Putin must be taken seriously by the entire world,” Vajpayee said (BBC Online, Dec. 2).

Pakistan responded Sunday by questioning safeguards for the Russian nuclear stockpile.

“Russia’s own system of safeguarding its nuclear assets, fissile material and sensitive technology is a matter of serious concern to the international community,” the Pakistani Foreign Office said in a statement.

“Russia is engaged in a multibillion dollar program with the U.S. to safeguard its assets and material, and also to subsidize scientists so that they would not be tempted to work abroad,” the office said.  “Serious doubts had been expressed by prominent Russians about the whereabouts of its suitcase bombs.  Fissile material has been used for field agricultural monitoring devices throughout the former U.S.S.R., and all these devices had yet to be accounted for.  Pakistan is, therefore, surprised that any concern about Pakistan should be expressed by Russia,” the office added.

Pakistani officials, who instructed the country’s ambassador in Moscow to protest the remarks to Russian officials, told the Russian ambassador in Islamabad that Pakistani nuclear weapons are “under very tight control,” the office said.  Russia and Pakistan also plan to discuss the issue in Moscow today during meetings of a bilateral working group on terrorism, the Press Trust of India reported (Press Trust of India, Dec. 1).

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North Korea:  China, Russia Call for Ending Nuclear Programs

China and Russia issued a joint statement today urging North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program and abide by the 1994 Agreed Framework (see GSN, Nov. 22).  The statement from Pyongyang’s two powerful neighbors came after talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Jiang Zemin in Beijing.

“The sides consider it important for the destiny of the world and security in Northeast Asia to preserve the non-nuclear status of the Korean peninsula and the regime of nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction,” the joint statement says.  The statement also emphasizes “the extreme importance of normalizing relations between the United States and the D.P.R.K. on the basis of continued observation of earlier reached agreements” (Richard Balmforth, Reuters/MSNBC News, Dec. 2).

IAEA

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-member board called on North Korea Friday to drop any nuclear weapons programs and accept international inspections.  Meeting for the first time since the United States in October accused North Korea of secretly working to enrich uranium, the board said North Korea’s claim that its sovereignty entitles it to pursue nuclear weapons is a violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

According to the New York Times, the move appears to mark the first time that the U.N. agency has explicitly demanded North Korea abandon its entire nuclear weapons program.  In the past, the agency has called on North Korea to accept inspections.

Presented in October with U.S. intelligence indicating the existence of the uranium enrichment program, North Korea asserted its right to have such a program.  Since then, the country has refused requests by the IAEA and others for more information.

The agency has the power only to report violations to the U.N. Security Council, and no deadline was stipulated in Friday’s resolution (Serge Schmemann, New York Times, Nov. 30).

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Russia:  Operators Plan to Open Disposal Plant This Month

Russian officials have said they plan to be able to begin destroying chemical weapons at the newly built Gorny disposal plant by Dec. 15, Vremya Novostei reported Friday (see GSN, Aug. 22).  Operators are waiting for approval from a Russian commission currently visiting the site before work can begin, according to Vremya Novostei.

The plant should allow Russia to meet a 2007 deadline to destroy part of its chemical weapons stockpile, said Zinovy Pak, general director of the Russian Munitions Agency.  The plant can destroy 300 tons of mustard gas and 100 tons of lewisite annually, according to Vremya Novostei.

Representatives from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons who have visited the plant have approved of its technology and equipment, said Alexander Gorbovsky, an official at the Munitions Agency (Nikolai Poroskov, Vremya Novostei, Nov. 29, Defense and Security translation, Dec. 2).

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North Korea:  United States Detects Missile Shipment to Yemen

A shipment of missiles and fuel material to Yemen left the North Korean port of Nampo two weeks ago, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, Aug. 23).

The ship held missiles as well as chemicals for use in Scud missile fuel, according to U.S. intelligence officials.  The shipment is part of a deal between the two countries that also included a delivery earlier this year, drawing a rebuke and sanctions from the United States.  Yemeni officials, who have reportedly told Washington that they do not plan to seek further missile shipments from North Korea, denied the most recent reports, according to the Times.

“We deny the credibility of any such report, that there is a second (missile) shipment,” said Yemeni Embassy spokesman Yahya Alshawkani.

The United States sanctioned North Korea — but not Yemen — after the shipments earlier this year, and U.S. officials said the latest shipment would most likely result in further sanctions against Pyongyang.

After the initial shipment, Yemeni officials had expressed defiance toward the U.S. reprimand.

“We have bought these missiles and this is a legitimate right for Yemen,” President Ali Abdullah Saleh said Aug. 24, according to local media reports (Bill Gertz, Washington Times, Dec. 2).

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U.S. Plans I:  Call to Public Elicits Imaginative Ideas, Pentagon Says

Industry and private sources have offered the Pentagon several attractive ideas in response to a call for missile defense suggestions, the Washington Post reported today.

“What we wanted to do was understand completely what was out there, what potentially could be out there, that would be applicable to this kind of problem,” said Terry Little, who heads the Pentagon’s efforts on developing kinetic boost-phase systems.

Officials are investigating ideas for miniaturizing interceptors and for powering missile defense-related airships with solar panels, according to the Post.  Some submissions have also shed light on the technology available to build interceptors, Little said.  Several of the suggestions have provided valuable information on the possibility of intercepting a missile in its boost phase, he said.

“I didn’t know where we were with that kind of technology,” Little said.  “I would say today I’m at a 60 percent confidence level” that a boost-phase system is feasible, he added.

A boost-phase intercept system could be ready by 2008, Little said.  The Defense Department plans to develop a mobile land-based defense system against boost-phase missiles and then move to a sea-based system, he added (Bradley Graham, Washington Post, Dec. 2).

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Israel:  Germany Loans Two Patriot Batteries

Germany has confirmed an offer to lend two Patriot missile batteries to Israel, Ha’aretz reported today (see GSN, Nov. 27).  Officials plan to deliver the missiles within a few weeks, the German Defense Ministry said Sunday.

“The historic and moral values of German obligate us to do this,” German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said recently.  “The security of Israel and its citizens is very important to Germany” (Ha’aretz, Dec. 2).

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U.S. Plans II:  Lagging Satellites Jeopardize Midcourse System

Two planned U.S. Defense Department satellites are behind schedule and over budget, jeopardizing White House plans for a ground-based missile defense system, the Wall Street Journal reported today (see GSN, Sept. 3).

Program restructuring has pushed back the timeline for developing the Space-Based Infrared Satellites — SBIRS-High and SBIRS-Low — so that their first launches are not planned until 2006 (see GSN, Sept. 4).  The Bush administration had hoped to field an initial version of a ground-based missile defense system by early 2004, but both delayed satellites are crucial to the system’s success, according to the Journal.

The Pentagon does have satellites that were built and launched to track Soviet-era ICBMs, but SBIRS-High would detect smaller missiles, according to defense officials.  The system’s primary contractor, Lockheed Martin, is faced with $2.15 billion in unexpected costs, and the U.S. Air Force has restructured the development schedule to cover the funding shortfall and delays.  Company officials have said they now hope to deliver the first sensor for the system in 2003 and launch the satellite in 2006.  Air Force Undersecretary Peter Teets said he was “reasonably confident” that the program would be successful under its new structure.

“Almost all of the space programs are in trouble and that costs billions of dollars more than expected,” Air Force Secretary James Roche said.

Positioned in a lower orbit, SBIRS-Low would track a missile throughout its flight so forces could shoot it down.  There is no comparable system currently deployed, the Wall Street Journal reported.  Development plans for SBIRS-Low also have recently been restructured, allowing for a planned launch in 2006.

“Lots of decisions were made in a tight funding environment that in the collective were unrealistically optimistic,” said John Hamre, president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former U.S. defense secretary (Anne Marie Squeo, Wall Street Journal, Dec. 2).

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