U.S. Response:  “Murky” Intelligence Can Be Basis for Action, Wolfowitz Says

U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz defended yesterday the Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq, arguing that the government must be able to act on “murky” intelligence when necessary (see GSN, July 25).

No conclusive evidence has yet been found to support the frequent Bush administration claims about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and links to terrorism.  The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, however, demonstrated a need to act on the basis of “murky” information to prevent future attacks, he said.

“The nature of terrorism is that intelligence about terrorism is murky,” Wolfowitz said on Fox News Sunday.  “I think the lesson of 9/11 is that if you’re not prepared to act on the basis of murky intelligence, then you’re going to have to act after the fact, and after the fact now means after horrendous things have happened to this country,” he said (Anton Ferreira, Reuters/Philadelphia Inquirer, July 28).

U.S. Senator Carl Levin (D-Mich.) yesterday criticized Wolfowitz’s use of the word “murky” to describe prewar U.S. intelligence on Iraq.

“Boy, it sure didn’t sound murky before the war,” Levin said on CBS’s Face the Nation.  “There were clear connections, we were told, between al-Qaeda and Iraq.  There was no murkiness, no nuance, no uncertainty about it at all. ...  That’s the way it was presented to the American people,” he said (William Mann, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, July 28).

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China:  Beijing Must Improve Nonproliferation Efforts, U.S. Official Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A senior U.S. official last week called on China to improve its nonproliferation efforts, and in particular to curb its ballistic missile exports.  Citing such exports as the “most significant proliferation concern” the United States has with China, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance Paula DeSutter said, “The government of China has not done enough to ensure that all Chinese entities abide by the nonproliferation commitments the Chinese government has made” (see GSN, July 3).

During a hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, DeSutter outlined China’s efforts to stem WMD and ballistic missile proliferation, as well as continuing U.S. concerns.  China is of particular concern to the United States because of its advanced technological capabilities, DeSutter said.

“While there are many buyers in the market for WMD and missiles, there are only a handful of states with the capability to be dealers in that market,” DeSutter told the commission.  “China’s sophistication with many of these technologies has made it possible for Chinese entities to become key exporters of WMD and missile technology,” she said.

Missile Proliferation

In August 2002, China released its missile export control list, a move that came as a “significant and welcome step,” DeSutter said (see GSN, Sept. 3, 2002).  She added, however, that the United States has several concerns about remaining deficiencies in China’s missile export control system.  For example, the Chinese control list is not as comprehensive as the annex of the Missile Technology Control Regime, which seeks to reduce missile proliferation by establishing common export-control regulations among members.  In addition, DeSutter said, the Chinese regulations do not prohibit the export of complete missile-production facilities, as does the MTCR.

The United States is also concerned with China’s implementation of its missile-related export regulations, DeSutter said.  China is apparently not enforcing controls at its borders, allowing illegal transfers to go undetected, she said.  China also lacks an effective end-use verification system to ensure that legitimate transfers are not diverted, DeSutter said, adding that effective implementation could be a field of cooperation between Beijing and Washington.

China has not done enough to crack down on so-called “serial proliferators” — those Chinese entities that have a record of proliferation activities, DeSutter said.  One such entity is the North China Industries Corp. (Norinco), which the United States has sanctioned several times for alleged exports of missile technologies to Iran, she said.

“For some time, we have been alerting the Chinese government to our concerns about the activities of Norinco,” DeSutter said.  “Nonetheless, the Chinese government appears to have taken no action to halt Norinco’s proliferant behavior,” she added.

Underscoring the various U.S. concerns with China’s attempts to prevent missile proliferation is a concern that China does not take the issue seriously, according to DeSutter.

“The Chinese government appears to view missile nonproliferation, at least in part, not as a goal in and of itself, but as an issue that needs merely to be managed as part of its overall bilateral relationship with the United States,” she said.

WMD Proliferation

The United States also has concerns regarding China’s WMD nonproliferation efforts, according to DeSutter. 

There is concern that Beijing has joined international nuclear nonproliferation regimes in such a way as to allow it to continue to “lawfully circumvent” those regimes’ intentions, DeSutter said.  For example, while China has joined the Zangger Committee, it has not joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group — a “significant” distinction, since this allows China to continue to export nuclear-related items to safeguarded nuclear facilities in countries of concern, such as Pakistan, she said.

Concerning chemical weapons, the United States believes that China has both not revealed the full extent of its chemical weapons program and that it possesses a “moderate inventory” of chemical weapons agents, DeSutter said (see GSN, Oct. 21, 2002).  She said the United States plans to soon discuss with China a proposal, developed by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, to increase industrial inspections at facilities that produce chemicals not directly covered by the Chemical Weapons Convention.

In addition, there is also concern that China has maintained a biological weapons program despite its membership in the Biological Weapons Convention, according to DeSutter (see GSN, Oct. 18, 2002).

“The United States believes that China’s consistent claims that it has never researched, produced or possessed BW [biological weapons] are simply not true,” she said.

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British Response:  WMD Proliferation Set to Gain Priority in British Defenses

British Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon has said that combating the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is set to become an increasing duty of the British military, Navy News Week reported today (see GSN, July 18).

Hoon is expected to publish a report this fall outlining British plans for the military over the next 30 years.  The white paper predicts that the proliferation of WMD-related technologies will make it easier for countries and terrorist organizations to develop such weapons, Hoon said.

“Countering proliferation and terrorism will continue to take up more of the armed forces’ effort,” Hoon said.  “The threat from nonstate actors will continue to require multilateral responses.  There is a danger that the next 30 years will see the emergence of new WMD powers as the technology proliferates and technical advances make production easier,” he said.

Increased WMD proliferation and its impacts will require the British military to be able to respond quickly to unforeseen events, Hoon said.

“We do not have an infallible ability to read the future,” Hoon said.  “We can therefore be clear that the overriding characteristic that we shall look for in our armed services over the next 30 years is the ability to respond to events and security challenges with speed, precision and flexibility,” he said (Gene Koprowski, Navy News Week, July 28).

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Iran:  Tehran’s IAEA Representative Calls for Additional Protocol

Iran’s representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday that he wants his government to sign the Additional Protocol, which would allow intrusive inspections of Tehran’s nuclear facilities (see GSN, July 24).

The protocol was “not conceived just for Iran or Third World countries, and sooner or later all IAEA member states will have to sign up,” Ali Akbar Salehi said.

“I hope that we can overcome the problem by the next IAEA board of governors meeting in September through the measures that top officials are going to take in the coming month,” he added, noting that the Additional Protocol would ease international pressure on Iran (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 27).

Experts, however, are skeptical that Iran will sign the protocol by September, BBC.com reported (BBC.com, July 27).

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North Korea:  Talks Between Beijing, Pyongyang Progressing Slowly

Chinese efforts to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula are not making much progress, South Korean Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan said today (see GSN, July 25).

“The negotiating process between North Korea and China is not speedy, but has slowed down a bit,” Yoon said.  “North Korea holds the key.  The ball now is in North Korea’s court,” he added.

China is currently attempting to arrange trilateral talks with North Korea and the United States.

“No one can tell for sure what the timing of the talks will be,” Yoon said.  “Since North Korea has yet to respond, we can’t predict the timing.  We need to wait,” he said (Kim Kyoung-wha, Reuters, July 28).

Yoon said he has lost his early optimism that talks could begin soon.

“At the beginning I believed it was possible to resume the talks at an early date,” Yoon said.  “But as time passes, the North Korean-Chinese consultation is slowing down, rather than speeding up.  We need to wait,” he added (Agence France-Presse, July 28).

John Bolton, U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, is in Beijing to discuss the nuclear standoff with Chinese officials, Agence France-Presse reported today.  Bolton is also scheduled to visit South Korea and Japan this week (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, July 28).

At a press conference today in Beijing, Bolton said China has worked to resolve the crisis but the U.N. Security Council should address the issue.

“I am not sure that there’s anything else specifically that we can think of that the government here could do that they haven’t already tried,” he said.  “Those who say that the Security Council is not the appropriate place to go have to take into account the impact of their statements on the long-term significance of the potential role of the council in a variety of disputes,” Bolton added (John Ruwitch, Reuters/MSNBC.com, July 28).

Roh Says Nonaggression Treaty Unnecessary

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said yesterday that the United States does not need to sign an nonaggression treaty with Pyongyang, a move that North Korea has been calling for throughout the crisis.

“I don’t think we need to give this particular form of legal assurance to North Korea,” Roh said in a U.S. television interview.

He also dismissed reports that North Korea has made extensive progress in reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods.

“Both of our governments think that North Korea’s claims are exaggerated.  Specifically, the argument that it has already completed reprocessing plutonium and that it is very close to developing a nuclear weapon.  I think these arguments are exaggerated,” Roh said.

Despite the reprocessing reports, “when we look at the analysis, even if they did reprocess the plutonium, it was done on a very small scale,” he added (Federal News Service transcript, July 27).

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Russia:  Moscow Purchases Soviet-Era ICBMs from Ukraine

Russia has purchased Soviet-era SS-19 ICBMs from Ukraine and has begun work on new advanced ballistic missile submarines, officials said Friday (see GSN, Oct. 10, 2002).

While Ukraine has dismantled most of its former Soviet arsenal, it decided in October to sell about 30 retained SS-19s to Russia, according to the Associated Press.  Interfax-Military News Agency reported Friday that the missile transfer has been completed.

Russia’s purchase of the ICBMs is an easy way for Moscow to increase its strategic capabilities, said Alexander Pikayev of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Moscow office.

“It will allow Russia to save funds that would have to be spent on building expensive new missiles,” he said.

In addition, a new nuclear submarine armed with advanced ICBMs is set to enter into service in 2006, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said Friday (Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press/Boston Globe, July 27).

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Israel:  IAEA to Discuss Tel Aviv’s Nuclear Program

The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to discuss Israel’s long-suspected nuclear weapons program during the agency’s next general conference, scheduled to be held in Vienna Sept. 15-19, Hi Pakistan reported today (see GSN, June 30).

The IAEA agreed to discuss Israel’s nuclear program at the request of Arab members, according to Hi Pakistan.  A number of Arab states have compiled a fact sheet on Israel’s nuclear program to be sent to IAEA members before the September meeting.  Some experts believe that Israel possesses between 200 to 300 nuclear warheads, Hi Pakistan reported (Hi Pakistan, July 28).

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United States:  Quality Issues Delay Minuteman Upgrades

U.S. defense contractor Northrop Grumman will be late in delivering rebuilt rocket motors for U.S. nuclear missiles because of problems at a subcontractor’s facility, Bloomberg.com reported yesterday (see GSN, June 11).

The deliveries are behind schedule because of “systemic quality problems” at a United Technologies Pratt & Whitney Space Propulsion plant.  Delivery of the rocket motors, which are being rebuilt for the Minuteman III ICBM arsenal, will not be back on schedule until August 2005, according to Air Force documents.

The discovery of the problems has highlighted “the systemic quality problem that exists at Pratt & Whitney,” said Air Force Major Heidi Fier, program manager for the Minuteman III Propulsion Replacement program, in an April 25 report.

Northrop Grumman runs the $6 billion, 15-year effort to modernize the Minuteman III missile fleet (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg.com, July 27).

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Anthrax:  White House Orders NIH to Research New Vaccine Without Additional Funding

The White House has told the U.S. National Institutes of Health that it must conduct research on a next-generation anthrax vaccine without additional funding, Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Friday (see GSN, July 11).

Funding for the vaccine project was not included in the $1.75 billion allocated for biological defense research in 2003 and 2004, according to Newsday.  The project marks the first time in NIH history that the agency has been ordered to conduct a specific research project and reallocate funds from other projects to carry it out, Fauci said.

To make up for the lack of allocated funding for the vaccine project, hundreds of scientists have seen their research grants become reduced, Newsday reported.  For example, many four-year grants have been reduced by six months.

“We’re not happy about it, but we tried to do what was least painful,” Fauci said (Laurie Garret, Newsday, July 28).

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United States:  Alabama Governor Wants Power to Shut Down Anniston Incinerator

Alabama Governor Bob Riley has refused to sign a memorandum of agreement with the U.S. Army over a chemical weapons incinerator located at the Anniston Army Depot unless he is given the authority to stop the incinerator if necessary, the Birmingham News reported Saturday (see GSN, July 24).

Riley is requesting a clause in the memorandum that would state that he would have the authority to shut down the incinerator if the Army does not fulfill its safety commitments, Riley’s spokesman David Azbell said.  The Army is considering Riley’s request, a Defense Department spokeswoman said.

The Army does not need Riley’s permission to operate the incinerator, according to the News.  Even so, earlier this year officials began discussing the memorandum, which sets the terms agreed to by Alabama and the Army to begin the incinerator’s operation.  The memorandum requires the signatures of Acting Army Secretary Les Brownlee, a Homeland Security Department official and Riley.

“By having the MOA, it gives the governor the assurance that his concerns have been resolved and at the same time, with this clause it gives him the ability to take action on behalf of the people of Alabama,” Azbell said (Katherine Bouma, Birmingham News, July 26).

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U.S. Plans I:  Air Force Will Launch Ballistic Missile Targets From Aircraft

U.S. Air Force C-17 aircraft will begin launching ballistic missile targets over the Pacific Ocean in November, Space & Missile reported today (see GSN, July 9).

“They wanted to do a lot of tests and evaluations at some locations where we just can’t provide the targets,” said Air Force Col. Nat Thongchua, director of the Rocket Systems Launch Program.  “We had to come up with a way of launching a target from anywhere.  The concept came up and it was called the Air Launched Target,” he added.

The air-launched missiles can be used to test any form of interceptor and the cost is the same as a ground-launched target, Thongchua said.  The first test of the new target is scheduled to take place at Kwajalein, in the Marshall Islands (Ray Nelson, Space & Missile, July 28).

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U.S.-Russia:  Mistrust Could Hamper Missile Defense Cooperation, Russian General Says

Lingering mistrust between the United States and Russia could jeopardize the two countries’ efforts to cooperate on missile defense development, Russian Deputy Chief of Staff Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky said today (see GSN, July 16).

Baluyevsky said there was concern over the U.S. decision to upgrade radar stations located in Greenland (see GSN, March 6) and the United Kingdom as part of missile defense efforts (see GSN, Feb. 6).  Those stations would be ineffective in tracking a ballistic missile launched from the Middle East or North Korea, he said.

“That means that the theorists and pragmatists in Washington fear that the threat is coming from Russia — for example in the form of an unsanctioned rocket launch,” Baluyevsky said (Agence France-Presse, July 28).

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U.S. Plans II:  Miniature Kill Vehicle Development Plans Advance

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency and the U.S. Army have decided to choose a single defense contractor to develop miniature kill vehicles for U.S. missile defenses, Defense Daily reported today (see GSN, April 10, 2002).

The agency and the Army have decided, after months of debate, to award three concept definition contracts and then choose one contractor to proceed with the development of the vehicles, a program official said.  Previously, there had been discussion of choosing two concepts, instead of only one, for further development, Defense Daily reported (Kerry Gildea, Defense Daily, July 28)

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