Global Security Newswire: By National Journal

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    Issue for Friday, August 1, 2003

  Terrorism  
U.S. Response I:  Poindexter to Resign Over Online Futures Trading Market Full Story
U.S. Response II:  Bush Administration Talking With Iran Over Al-Qaeda Operatives Full Story
U.S Response III:  U.S. Senator Introduces Bill to Create Intelligence “Czar” Full Story
U.S. Response IV:  Security Still Lacking at U.S. Chemical Facilities, Experts Say Full Story
Threat Assessment:  British Panel Says Iraq Invasion Hurt War on Terror Full Story
Recent Stories

  Weapons of Mass Destruction  
Iraq I:  Top U.S. Weapons Hunter Cites Progress, Bioweapons Focus Full Story
Iraq II:  Army Learns Lesson on Search for WMD in Iraq Full Story
U.S. Response:  White House Used Iraq War to Promote Pre-Emption Doctrine, Senator Says Full Story
Iraq III:  White House Orders New Intelligence Report Full Story
Recent Stories

  Nuclear Weapons  
North Korea:  Washington Plans Stance for Multilateral Talks Full Story
China:  Beijing Criticizes U.S. Defense Department Missile Report Full Story
Russia:  Moscow to Maintain Test Moratorium if Others Do Full Story
United States:  Carlsbad Site Has Advantages for Location of New Pit Facility, Abraham Says Full Story
Recent Stories

  Biological Weapons  
Anthrax:  Maryland Pond Search Turns Up No New Evidence Full Story
Recent Stories

  Chemical Weapons  
United States:  Anniston Chemical Weapons Disposal to Begin Next Week Full Story
Recent Stories

  Missile Proliferation  
Recent Stories

  Missile Defense  
U.S. Plans:  Defense Department Suspends Space-Based Kinetic Interceptor Full Story
Recent Stories

  Missile Defense  
Recent Stories
 

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Even if it happened to have been a brilliant idea, which I doubt, it would not have been able to function in the environment that it was created, so I cancelled it.
—U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, explaining his decision to end a Pentagon program to create an online market to allow people to speculate on the likelihood of different terrorist activities.


Iraq I:  Top U.S. Weapons Hunter Cites Progress, Bioweapons Focus

By Joe Fiorill
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq is seeing considerable progress, with Iraqi informants leading searchers to sites not previously known to have been part of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s weapons program, the CIA’s top analyst in the hunt said here yesterday...Full Story

North Korea:  Washington Plans Stance for Multilateral Talks

Pyongyang yesterday formally accepted the longstanding U.S. proposal for multilateral talks to resolve the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear crisis, and the White House is now determining a position to take in the talks, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, July 31)...Full Story

Iraq II:  Army Learns Lesson on Search for WMD in Iraq

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Army should have moved quickly following the recent war in Iraq to secure sites that might have contained information on Baghdad’s suspected WMD programs, according to a 281-page after-action report that detailed activities by the Army’s Third Infantry Division, which spearheaded the successful invasion and has remained there to stabilize the country...Full Story



Current Issue Friday, August 1, 2003
Terrorism

U.S. Response I:  Poindexter to Resign Over Online Futures Trading Market

John Poindexter is expected to offer his resignation from the U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency within the next several weeks, a Pentagon official said yesterday (see GSN, July 30).

Poindexter’s resignation was prompted by controversy surrounding a DARPA program to create an online futures trading market that would have allowed people to speculate on the likelihood of various types of terrorist activities.  The project, which was headed by Poindexter, was quickly canceled this week after details were released. 

The Pentagon official said he did not know if Poindexter’s resignation had been requested by senior Pentagon officials (George Edmonson, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Aug. 1).

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Wednesday that he decided to cancel the project “an hour” after he learned about it because of concerns that it would not be able to properly function with the surrounding controversy.

“Even if it happened to have been a brilliant idea, which I doubt, it would not have been able to function in the environment that it was created, so I cancelled it,” Rumsfeld said (U.S. Defense Department release, July 30).


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U.S. Response II:  Bush Administration Talking With Iran Over Al-Qaeda Operatives

The Bush administration is reportedly holding talks with Iran in an attempt to take custody of three senior al-Qaeda operatives held there, including an alleged expert on poisons, the New York Post reported today (see GSN, July 31).  The White House has denied, however, any “formal” negotiations (Ed Robinson, New York Post, Aug. 1).


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U.S Response III:  U.S. Senator Introduces Bill to Create Intelligence “Czar”

U.S. Senator Bob Graham (D-Fla.) introduced new legislation yesterday to create a Cabinet-level intelligence “czar” to oversee U.S. intelligence agencies, according to the Miami Herald (see GSN, June 26, 2002).

“The intelligence community needs a leader with the clout to set common goals, establish priorities, knock heads and, when necessary, assure that the American people are protected,” Graham said,

Graham’s bill would also require changes at the FBI, such as requiring the bureau to make counterterrorism one of its top priorities, improve information sharing with state and local officials and upgrade its information technology, according to the Herald.  The bill would also create a National Terrorist Watchlist Center to provide a database on suspected terrorists for both border security and law enforcement.

Senators Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.) and Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) cosponsored the bill.  Graham said he also expected Republican support for his legislation because it reflects the recent work of the House and Senate intelligence committees in investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks (Frank Davies, Miami Herald, Aug. 1).


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U.S. Response IV:  Security Still Lacking at U.S. Chemical Facilities, Experts Say

By Margaret Kriz

National Journal

WASHINGTON — In a Rose Garden ceremony in July 2002, U.S. President George W. Bush unveiled his strategy for preventing terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. Flanked by key lawmakers from both major parties, he announced plans to create a Department of Homeland Security and released a report identifying the federal agencies designated to protect particularly vulnerable industries. The Environmental Protection Agency’s assignments included safeguarding the chemical industry and its hazardous materials.

“All of us agree,” the president declared at the time, “that protecting Americans from attack is our most urgent national priority, and that we must act on that priority.”

Then, in February of this year, his administration specifically warned that terrorists “may attempt to launch conventional attacks against the U.S. nuclear/chemical industrial infrastructure to cause contamination, disruption, and terror. Based on information, nuclear power plants and industrial chemical plants remain viable targets.”

But despite the Bush administration’s public promises and alarms, the White House has taken almost no action to improve security at any of the nation’s 15,000 facilities — including chemical manufacturing plants, petroleum tank farms and pesticide companies — that contain large quantities of potentially deadly chemicals. For that matter, the administration has done virtually nothing even to assess those facilities’ vulnerability, even though the dangers are far from theoretical: An accidental leak at a Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India, immediately killed between 3,800 and 8,000 people in 1984 and, according to some reports, has since claimed an additional 12,000 lives. Closer to home, an accidental chlorine gas leak at a Honeywell refrigeration plant in Baton Rouge, La., on July 20 sent four workers to the hospital and forced 600 residents to stay indoors.

Counterterrorism experts shudder to think about the number of deaths an intentional release of a toxic chemical could cause. And the Bush administration’s inertia heightens their worries.

“These chemical plants have a vulnerability which has a catastrophic characteristic ... that could approximate the World Trade Center,” Rand Beers, a White House counterterrorism adviser for 30 years, told National Journal. Dissatisfied with the Bush administration’s approach to security, Beers resigned in March and now advises the presidential campaign of Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.).

Even though the EPA is the only federal regulatory agency with expertise in chemical safety, early this year the White House shifted responsibility for the chemical industry to the Homeland Security Department. That transfer followed industry complaints that the EPA, which was attempting to toughen federal security requirements, had become too demanding. Still struggling to get on its feet, Homeland Security has no authority to require the chemical industry to adopt stricter security measures. It also doesn’t have the money or personnel to inspect industrial plants for potential security problems (see GSN, June 18).

Thus, the Bush administration is relying solely on voluntary safety programs developed by chemical-industry trade associations (see GSN, April 8). But even if every member of those associations faithfully abided by the voluntary guidelines, two-thirds of the facilities that use or store high volumes of toxic chemicals would still be unaccounted for because they don’t belong to those groups, according to EPA officials.

The industry’s voluntary efforts do not satisfy Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, who along with then-EPA Administrator Christie Whitman declared in an October 2002 letter to the Washington Post that “voluntary efforts alone are not sufficient to provide the level of assurance Americans deserve.” In a February 2003 letter to the General Accounting Office, the Justice Department warned, “The risk of terrorists’ attempting in the foreseeable future to cause an industrial chemical release is both real and credible.”

But the administration has given only half-hearted support to legislative efforts to force the industry to make itself less vulnerable. Since shortly after Sept. 11, 2001, Senator Jon Corzine (D-N.J.), whose state is dotted with facilities that use or manufacture vast quantities of hazardous chemicals, has been pushing legislation to require such companies to assess and improve their security. Corzine’s bill would also mandate that companies consider using safer alternatives to their current practices for manufacturing and storing chemicals (see GSN, May 13).

During the previous Congress, the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee unanimously voted for the Corzine measure. But the proposal died on the Senate floor after the chemical industry fought hard to block it.

This year, the panel’s new chairman, Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.), is offering a less stringent chemical-industry security bill, which he wrote with the help of the Bush administration. The White House, however, has invested no political capital in getting it passed, and the bill has languished. Meanwhile, Representative Joe Barton (R-Texas), who chairs the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee with jurisdiction over toxic chemicals, contends that new regulations aren’t needed. “I don’t see a burning need to legislate,” Barton said in an interview. He stresses the difficulty of defending industrial plants against terrorism and the slim chance that any particular facility would end up being a terrorist target.

Calling Off the Watchdogs

Two weeks after Sept. 11, 2001, Whitman met with leaders of the chemical industry for a frank discussion about their industry’s vulnerability to terrorist attacks. EPA regulators already had some idea of the scope of the problem. Under the Clean Air Act, every company that uses or stores extremely hazardous chemicals is required to file an annual report explaining the steps it’s taking to prevent accidental releases of toxic chemicals and to protect the environment and nearby residents if a release does occur.

Based on reports from the 15,000 facilities required to submit that worst-case-scenario information, the EPA warned that a terrorist attack on any one of the 123 chemical facilities located in densely populated areas could expose 1 million people to toxic chemicals. An attack on one of 700 other facilities could threaten at least 100,000 people, and an attack at one of 3,000 other chemical sites could affect 10,000 people.

In the months after Whitman’s meeting, the EPA began developing guidelines for companies to assess their vulnerability to terrorism. Agency officials also seriously considered issuing new regulations to require the owners of all 15,000 of its “worst-case” sites to evaluate and improve security. Regulators planned to issue those rules under a provision of the Clean Air Act that authorizes the agency to control accidental chemical releases. Ultimately, though, the EPA feared that the chemical industry would sue and decided not to stretch the Clean Air Act to cover potential terrorist attacks. The EPA opted instead to go the legislative route and ask for more authority to mandate that the chemical plants better protect themselves.

EPA officials spent nearly a year working on a legislative proposal with the White House, the Office of Management and Budget and various federal agencies. The major sticking point was whether the legislation should require companies to consider using safer chemicals and technologies.

“EPA initially said that one of the things facilities ought to at least look at as part of a comprehensive vulnerability assessment is whether there are steps they can take to reduce the hazards that are present at the site,” recalls a former EPA official who was involved in the debate. “If they’re storing a six-month supply of a hazardous chemical, would they be less vulnerable to attack if they only kept a one-month supply on site? If they were using a highly toxic chemical, is there a less toxic replacement?”

Industry lobbyists forcefully fought the idea of a law requiring companies to consider safer alternatives. “It creates too big a door for federal micromanagement of the decisions that facility operators are making on a day-to-day level,” said Rob McArver, director of government relations at the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturers Association, a trade group representing 300 fairly small companies.

“Chemical companies make dangerous things,” added Greg Lebedev, president of the American Chemistry Council, which represents 180 giants of the chemical manufacturing industry. “Getting into the technology of what you make and how you make it is a subject for an environmental or technology context, not security. I don’t want us to wander down an exotic path here.”

In late 2002, the EPA further enraged industry by announcing plans to inspect the chemical plants it considered most vulnerable to an attack. The agency asked more than 30 companies to voluntarily allow EPA inspectors to tour their sites. At least two refused. The inspections that were undertaken, EPA officials say, found that safeguards varied widely. Some companies were aggressively improving security; others were doing nothing.

The EPA’s attempts to lay the groundwork for an aggressive security program proved to be its undoing. In early 2003, the White House responded to industry protests by pulling the EPA off the chemical site security beat. The administration quietly shifted oversight to Homeland Security. Since then, industry officials and administration sources say, the federal government has done little to gauge the security at chemical plants.

The only concerted action on chemical plant safety is coming from the industry’s trade associations. The American Chemistry Council has been widely praised for a voluntary program in which it asks members to assess and upgrade security and to hire an independent auditor to judge their success. Complying with the council’s plan is now a prerequisite for membership in the group and in the Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturers Association. The American Petroleum Institute and several other trade associations have endorsed the approach, but aren’t requiring members to follow it.

Despite the laurels the American Chemistry Council program won, industry association officials say more needs to be done — even if not by their members. “We have a bit of a vacuum,” Lebedev says. “The EPA doesn’t do anything because that’s not what they do. DHS is still pulling itself together from all sides of Washington just to make itself into a reasonably homogeneous agency. No doubt it isn’t doing very much there.” Lebedev said his group now supports legislation to give Homeland Security the power to require chemical companies to conduct vulnerability assessments and improve their security. But he wants Congress to essentially exempt companies that have adopted the American Chemistry Council’s plan.

Oil industry officials argue that most petroleum companies don’t need — and haven’t waited for — a federal mandate to guard against terrorism. “There is no government agency now that can go in and order people to do these assessments,” said American Petroleum Industry spokesman Michael Shanahan. “But it’s in the self-interest of industry to protect itself.”

Perhaps so. Several recent reports, however, raise questions about how aggressively corporate America is responding to the threat of another major terrorist attack. A July 9 survey by the Conference Board, a New York City-based business research group, found that since Sept. 11, 2001, U.S. companies have increased their spending on security an average of only 4 percent. Other studies by the Brookings Institution, Rand, the Congressional Research Service and the Progressive Policy Institute also raised serious questions about security problems at chemical plants and other high-risk facilities with large amounts of hazardous material.

Environmentalists are suspicious of the chemical industry’s assurances that its facilities are doing enough. They cite dozens of instances in which news reporters or activists were able to walk into a chemical plant site or oil refinery without being stopped by a guard or barrier.

“We won’t have a complete picture of the safety at these facilities until the DHS has the resources and inclination to require all facilities to submit their security plans and then analyzes those plans,” said Jon Devine of the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Rick Hind, legislative director of Greenpeace’s toxics campaign, belittles the American Chemistry Council program as “PR eyewash.” The chemical industry’s promises, he said, are “lulling the Bush administration into complacency or overconfidence. So while the world seems to be gaining in reasons to hate us, we seem to be ignoring an entire sector of our infrastructure that sticks out like a sore thumb to terrorists.”

On July 23, Corzine offered an amendment to the Homeland Security appropriations bill that would have provided $80 million for the department to assess the security at chemical facilities nationwide. The amendment was tabled on the Senate floor.

Soft Spots?

Corzine says he is frustrated that Congress has balked at ensuring the safety of plants that use and store vast quantities of potentially lethal chemicals. “It strikes me,” he said in an interview, “that there is just no willingness to move here. Almost two years after Sept. 11, it’s hard to believe that if we’re committed to homeland security, we have not addressed something that everybody recognizes is among the top threats.” Corzine said he’s looking for “every possible avenue” for getting his proposal written into law. For example, he might offer it as an amendment to the Senate energy bill, which is now on the Senate floor.

Last year, industry lobbyists blocked Corzine’s bill after they rallied trade groups — ranging from the Chlorine Chemistry Council to the Agricultural Retailers Association — to fight the measure as unnecessary government interference. Corzine describes that defeat and industry’s continuing effort to water down his bill as “a classic case of the special interests trumping the public interest.”

Early this year, Corzine reintroduced his bill with Senator James Jeffords (I-Vt.), the ranking minority member on the Environment and Public Works Committee. Meanwhile, Chairman Inhofe drew up his own chemical-security legislation with input from the administration. In May, Inhofe announced plans to mark up his measure. But he didn’t have the committee votes to pass his version, which critics say wouldn’t go far enough to protect chemical facilities sites. Inhofe’s bill would not require companies to submit vulnerability or sercurity-improvement plans to Homeland Security. It also would not require companies to consider using alternatives to current chemicals and practices.

After a short, unsuccessful flurry of negotiations between Democrats and Republicans, Inhofe’s version was shoved onto a back burner until the committee completes work on the transportation reauthorization bill, which is considered a top priority because it will bring political pork to lawmakers’ financially strapped home states. The White House is pushing Inhofe to take up its proposed rewrite of the Clean Air Act immediately after Congress’s summer recess. If the chairman agrees, action on his chemical security measure could be delayed yet again.

Meanwhile, Corzine’s bill has gone through several iterations since he introduced it. His first proposal would have put the EPA in charge of chemical-plant security. Inhofe strongly objected to that provision, arguing that the agency is “notorious” for failing to keep the chemical industry’s secrets.

“The whole idea is security,” Inhofe said in an interview. “And we can cite a lot of examples where people inside EPA leaked information. Ultimately, it could fall into the hands of the wrong people.”

Corzine’s current version would give Homeland Security responsibility for the chemical-security program. But the battle continues over Corzine’s desire to encourage industry to use inherently safer technology at the chemical facilities. Inhofe and industry lobbyists strongly oppose that approach.

Corzine sees that mandate as critical. “I’m staying with it,” he said in an interview. But he added, “You know, at some point I’d just like to see fences put up and be certain that they’re being monitored. I’d like to make sure that chemical facilities on waterfronts have some control over access from the water.

“If you take a boat ride up Arthur Kill, between New York and New Jersey, you’d be shocked at how little security there is on the water side of those plants. It strikes me as absolutely an abject failure to address one of the serious soft spots in our communities.”

Republicans, however, tend to be inclined to give the chemical industry the benefit of the doubt on security issues. Several current and former Bush administration staffers said that the White House simply isn’t interested in creating a massive program for inspecting chemical plants. And House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Barton said that although he’s monitoring the situation, he sees no need for tough new chemical security requirements in the aftermath of Sept. 11, 2001.

“The problem you have in an open society is that it’s physically impossible to make any large industrial site terrorist-proof,” Barton said in an interview. “If there are enough terrorists who are dedicated enough and equipped well enough, they’re going to overwhelm everything that you put up short of some sort of Fort Knox — which doesn’t make much sense, given the cost and the relatively remote possibility that any specific site is going to be targeted.”

Security experts counter that while it might be unlikely that any particular chemical facility will be attacked, it is not unrealistic to think that some chemical facility will be targeted. At a June summit on chemical-industry security, FBI special agent Troy Morgan, a specialist on weapons of mass destruction, warned that chemical tank farms risk being turned into a “poor man’s atomic bomb.”

“You’ve heard about sarin and other chemical weapons in the news,” Morgan was quoted as saying in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “But it’s far easier to attack a railcar full of toxic industrial chemicals than it is to compromise the security of a military base and obtain these materials.”

Former White House counterterrorism adviser Beers contends that the Bush administration ought to enhance security at chemical plants. “There are so many possible vulnerabilities that to some degree it’s a very difficult task to try to sort among them all,” he said. But he suggested that government mandates would level the playing field between companies that are investing in security and those that are gaining a competitive edge by not spending the money. “This is one problem they can do something about,” he said. “Why isn’t it being done?”


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Threat Assessment:  British Panel Says Iraq Invasion Hurt War on Terror

A British parliamentary committee said yesterday that the invasion of Iraq might have hampered the war on terrorism, the Associated Press reported (see GSN, July 31).

Before invading Iraq, U.S. leaders implied that Baghdad was linked to the al-Qaeda terrorist network, according to AP.  British leaders said at the time that the danger of weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of terrorists justified the war.

The panel said “the war in Iraq might in fact have impeded the war against al-Qaeda” and the invasion “might have enhanced the appeal” of the terrorist group (Beth Gardiner, Associated Press/Salon.com, July 31).

The Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee said al-Qaeda remains a “significant threat” to Britain.

“We cannot conclude that these threats have diminished significantly, in spite of regime change in Iraq and progress in capturing some of the leaders of al-Qaeda.  Those that remain at large, including Osama bin Laden, retain the capacity to lead and guide the organization toward further atrocities.  Al-Qaeda has dangerously large numbers of foot soldiers and has demonstrated an alarming capacity to regenerate itself,” the committee said (Ben Russell, London Independent, Aug. 1).


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Weapons of Mass Destruction

Iraq I:  Top U.S. Weapons Hunter Cites Progress, Bioweapons Focus

By Joe Fiorill
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq is seeing considerable progress, with Iraqi informants leading searchers to sites not previously known to have been part of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s weapons program, the CIA’s top analyst in the hunt said here yesterday.

Speaking late yesterday afternoon after a 2«-hour Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, David Kay said U.S., British and Australian weapons hunters are “concentrating initially on biological [weapons programs] and on the role of the intelligence and security services.”

However, at an earlier briefing that followed a similarly lengthy hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee Kay did not deny that evidence of Iraqi chemical or biological weapons stockpiles is lacking thus far.

Asked about a July 15 House of Representatives Intelligence Committee press release indicating that evidence to date did “not point to the existence of large stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons,” Kay did not respond directly even though the release came at the end of a committee mission to Iraq and cited Kay as its main source on weapons programs.

“I’m sure if they put it out, it was a factual statement,” he said.

“Surprise” Could be Ahead; Kay Outlines Evidence Criteria

In both briefings to the press, Kay repeatedly indicated a “surprise” announcement may be coming.

Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), who is also a member of the Armed Services Committee, echoed that thought.

“I would not be surprised if there is a surprise, and it would end up changing a lot of people’s minds,” Roberts said.

Kay cautioned, though, that no significant find will be made public unless three criteria are met: multiple Iraqis providing information about the find, multiple documents explaining it and physical evidence showing a connection to weapons of mass destruction activities.

Progress Cited, but Patience Urged

Kay and key members of the two committees referred variously to “solid,” “significant” and “good” progress being made in the hunt for banned arms.  The head of the U.S. Iraqi Survey Group, Maj. Gen. Keith Dayton, said it is “phenomenal what we’re finding.”

All of them cited in particular what they called a new level of cooperation from Iraqis with knowledge of Hussein’s alleged weapons programs.

“We are actively exploring sites based on leads from document exploitation and Iraqis who are collaborating with us,” Kay said yesterday morning.

“There is not a day that goes by since I’ve been there, for five weeks, that we have not had people out on sites.  But it’s not … a sterile list drawn up before the war.  We are being led to these sites by Iraqis and documentation from the Saddam Hussein regime.  It’s the best-type site exploitation I know that you can conduct,” he added.

At the same time, Kay and several senators cautioned that because of Hussein’s alleged efforts to hide his weapons programs and deceive inspectors, patience will be required of those waiting for concrete results in the search.

“This was a program that, over 25 years, spent billions of dollars [and] was actively shielded by a security and deception plan, so it is not something that is easy to unwrap, but we are in the process,” Kay said after the morning hearing.

“We have found new evidence of how they successfully misled inspections of the U.N. and hid stuff continuously from them.  The active deception program is truly amazing, once you get inside it.  We have people who participated in deceiving U.N. inspectors now telling us how they did it,” he added.

Senators Express Concern Over Prewar Claims

Although all expressed some degree of confidence in the current search, some senators suggested the Bush administration’s prewar claims about Iraqi weapons programs may not have been justified.

“In the course of the weeks and months prior to the initiation of force,” said Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R-Va.), U.S. lawmakers “were given facts to the effect that in all likelihood, the discovery of these weapons and the programs supporting them would be somewhat easier than facts and reality now prove to be the case.”

The intelligence panel’s senior Democrat, John Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), drew a distinction between finding weapons “programs” — the term now in favor at the White House and among the weapons hunters — and actual weapons.

“Are they going to lead to what it is we went to war for?” Rockefeller asked.

“Programs don’t do it.  Programs cannot be fired.  Programs can’t get somewhere in 45 minutes.  Programs are not weaponized.  Programs aren’t what we were told about,” he said.


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Iraq II:  Army Learns Lesson on Search for WMD in Iraq

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Army should have moved quickly following the recent war in Iraq to secure sites that might have contained information on Baghdad’s suspected WMD programs, according to a 281-page after-action report that detailed activities by the Army’s Third Infantry Division, which spearheaded the successful invasion and has remained there to stabilize the country.

“One of the reasons for the attack on Iraq was to expose key weapons of mass destruction facilities,” the report says.  “During the transition from combat operations to support and stability operations, we did not attempt to secure these key facilities before looting started,” it continues.

The report does not say why Third Infantry forces did not act to secure suspected weapons of mass destruction facilities and did not suggest who might have been responsible for that.

The report’s conclusion says that securing the sites might have prevented the looting and prevented the loss of clues to suspected WMD programs and stockpiles.

“The looting, in essence, turned the facilities into crime scenes.  The visible clues that may have provided a detailed analysis of WMD production, research and development (R&D), or storage were either deployed or carried away by the local populous,” it says.

The report recommends: “All future SSE [Secure Sensitive Exploitation] facilities should be secured by ground combat or special forces soldiers.  This would allow for a detailed exploitation instead of a crime scene investigation.”

The report praises the mechanized division’s overall performance in rapidly reaching Baghdad and helping to take over the country.

“Operating considerably beyond existing doctrine, the Third Infantry Division proved that a lethal, flexible and disciplined mechanized force could conduct continuous operations over extended distances for 21 days,” it says in an introduction.

“The lessons learned about offensive operations during Operation Iraqi Freedom will enable the Army to grow and further develop its existing capabilities,” it says.


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U.S. Response:  White House Used Iraq War to Promote Pre-Emption Doctrine, Senator Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — While supporting the decision to invade Iraq, U.S. Senator Joseph Biden (D-Del.) yesterday accused White House “ideologues” of hijacking the war to advance the Bush administration’s doctrine of pre-emptive action (see GSN, June 5).

During an address at the Brookings Institution, Biden defended his decision to support a congressional resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq, saying he “would vote that way again today.”  Biden, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he supported the resolution because former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had violated the terms of the surrender agreement reached at the end of the 1991 Gulf War and had failed to comply with U.N. inspections — a condition of that agreement.

“When he [Hussein] refused, it became the fundamental right of the international community to enforce those rules,” Biden said.

Biden accused “ideologues” within the Bush administration, however, of using the war with Iraq as an attempt to establish a new doctrine of pre-emptive action against those states seen as threats to U.S. security. 

“Iraq was to be the test case,” Biden said.  “In my view, Iraq wasn’t about pre-emption, it was about the enforcement of a surrender agreement,” he said.

The United States should maintain a right to use pre-emptive action to ward off an imminent threat, Biden said.  However, the result of using Iraq to elevate pre-emption to the level of a “doctrine,” as some supporters have labeled it, resulted in a lack of international support for the overthrow of Hussein, he said.

“Making Iraq the case for pre-emption, putting it at the heart of our foreign policy, made it harder to get the world to join us,” Biden said.  “Why?  Because not one of our allies wanted to validate the pre-emption doctrine,” he said.

Biden also said that elevating the concept of pre-emptive action to the level of an official doctrine could jeopardize U.S. nonproliferation efforts.  Such a move “sends a message to our enemies that their only insurance against regime change is to acquire weapons of mass destruction as quickly as they can,” he said.

In addition, the use of pre-emptive action requires a basis in intelligence able to “stand up to world scrutiny,” he said.  Biden criticized Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz for saying earlier this week that the United States may have to act on “murky” intelligence to prevent future terrorist attacks (see GSN, July 28).

“Murky intelligence is hardly enough to meet that standard,” Biden said.


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Iraq III:  White House Orders New Intelligence Report

The Bush administration has ordered the CIA to prepare a new national intelligence estimate on Iraq to determine the extent of militia resistance to U.S. forces there and the likelihood of the formation of a stable, democratic government, the Boston Globe reported yesterday (see GSN, July 31).

The last NIE, prepared by the CIA in October 2002, focused on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction and has come under increased scrutiny due to criticism over the White House’s handling of prewar intelligence.

The Bush administration has now asked the CIA to assess the “sources of instability” in Iraq, including the influence of fighters arriving in Iraq from other Arab nations and the attempts of Iran to establish a Shiite Muslim-led government there, a senior intelligence official said.  The new assessment is also expected to examine the attitudes of the Iraqi population and whether a democratic government can be formed, intelligence sources said (Bryan Bender, Boston Globe, July 31).

No New Evidence Found to Support Aluminum Tubes Claims

Meanwhile, no new evidence has been found to support claims made by the White House prior to the war that Iraq attempted to purchase high-strength aluminum tubes for use in centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to USA Today (see GSN, July 16).

A claim made by U.S. President George W. Bush in his January State of the Union address that Iraq sought to obtain uranium from Africa has been the focus of growing controversy as reports come out that there were doubts within the administration over the strength of the claim.  Relatively little attention has been paid to the aluminum tube claim, however, which Bush also made in his address, according to USA Today.

Coalition forces in Iraq have so far found no new evidence to support the aluminum tube claim, which was heavily debated prior to the war, USA Today reported. 

A week after Bush’s speech, however, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell made a presentation on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction to the U.N. Security Council, in which he acknowledged that there were “differences of opinion” over the intended use of the aluminum tubes, White House officials said.  The administration continues to stand by its assessment that the tubes were intended for use to enrich uranium, USA Today reported.

“There was a very open discussion about that,” White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett said last week.  “It is an assessment which (CIA Director George Tenet) and the CIA stand by to this day,” he said (Nichols/Diamond, USA Today, Aug. 1).


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Nuclear Weapons

North Korea:  Washington Plans Stance for Multilateral Talks

Pyongyang yesterday formally accepted the longstanding U.S. proposal for multilateral talks to resolve the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear crisis, and the White House is now determining a position to take in the talks, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, July 31).

The state-run Korean Central News Agency said North Korea agreed to the multilateral talks during meetings yesterday in New York with U.S. officials.  The negotiations would include North and South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and the United States, according to KCNA.

U.S. officials said the six-nation negotiations could take place in Beijing by September (Voice of America, Aug. 1).

U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton was cautiously optimistic about the announcement.

“We need very close coordination and preparation with the government of South Korea and the government of Japan,” he said (Amy Bickers, Voice of America II, Aug. 1).

According to the Post, some White House officials want to offer energy and economic incentives to Pyongyang in exchange for nuclear disarmament, while others support a hard line with demands but no concessions.

Under one proposal, all the countries at the talks would issue a collective nonaggression guarantee to North Korea, a long-standing demand of the leadership in Pyongyang (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Aug. 1).

Bolton left open the possibility of a nonaggression treaty.

“We have no intent to invade North Korea, and as Secretary [of State Colin] Powell put it, we can find a way to put that down on a piece of paper,” Bolton said, but “as with all other issues raised by the North Korean weapons program, that is going to be resolved in the context of multilateral negotiations” (Bickers, Voice of America II).

The U.S. State Department praised the North Korean decision.

“We are encouraged, we are very encouraged by indications that North Korea is accepting our proposals for multilateral talks,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher, noting that Washington is not sure of a timeline, or of what North Korea will bring to the table.

“We’re prepared to talk.  We’re not predicting an outcome to the talks until we actually have them,” he said (State Department transcript, July 31).


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China:  Beijing Criticizes U.S. Defense Department Missile Report

China today attacked a recent U.S. Defense Department report that said Beijing is seeking to acquire more ballistic missiles in preparation for a possible attack on Taiwan (see GSN, July 31).

The report was an attempt by the United States to justify increased defense sales to Taiwan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

“The goal is an excuse to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan and fabricate public opinion,” the ministry said in a statement.  “The Chinese side expresses its strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition,” it said (Joe McDonald, Associated Press/Newsday, Aug. 1).

Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan was quoted today by the Chinese state media as reiterating Beijing’s long-held belief that Taiwan must be reunified with mainland China.

“It is the common aspiration of all the Chinese people, including Taiwan compatriots, to resolve the Taiwan question and accomplish the complete reunification of the motherland,” Cao said (Martin Parry, Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, Aug. 1).


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Russia:  Moscow to Maintain Test Moratorium if Others Do

Russia will continue to maintain a nuclear testing moratorium as long as other countries do the same, Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday (see GSN, July 9).

“We intend to keep the obligations we have undertaken, but on certain conditions, the most important of which is a similar attitude to these obligations by other nuclear powers,” Putin said (Associated Press/Moscow Times, Aug. 1).


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United States:  Carlsbad Site Has Advantages for Location of New Pit Facility, Abraham Says

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham has said there would be advantages to building a new plant to produce plutonium triggers, or “pits,” for nuclear weapons at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, N.M., the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, July 8).

In a letter to Senator Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), Abraham said the workforce of the plant and the opportunities for collaboration with the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories and state universities make the Carlsbad site an attractive location for the Modern Pit Facility.  The Carlsbad site also has the benefits of being remote and of having a low area population, Abraham said.

Domenici, who supports the Carlsbad site as being the location for the pit plant, said he welcomed Abraham’s acknowledgement of Carlsbad’s potential benefits.

“As the selection process moves forward, I believe the Energy Department will see more advantages to the Carlsbad site,” Domenici said.  “We still face plenty of competition, but I welcome Secretary Abraham’s acknowledgement that the Carlsbad site does offer some advantages over the other sites,” he said (Associated Press, Aug. 1).


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Biological Weapons

Anthrax:  Maryland Pond Search Turns Up No New Evidence

Law enforcement sources have said that soil samples taken from a pond near Frederick, Md., which the FBI drained as part of its investigation into the 2001 anthrax attacks, tested negative for anthrax, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, July 3).

The FBI spent three weeks and $250,000 to drain the pond, where agents had earlier recovered pieces of laboratory equipment (see GSN, June 30).  However, the operation revealed only discarded items, such as a gun and a bicycle, that appear to be unrelated to the anthrax attacks, sources said.

“Clearly there were no home runs,” a law enforcement source said.

Investigators are now focusing on working with scientists to determine the genetic code of the anthrax used in the attacks in an attempt to link it to a specific laboratory, law enforcement sources said.  In addition, investigators are also reinterviewing people, the Post reported (Lengel/Gugliotta, Washington Post, Aug. 1).


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Chemical Weapons

United States:  Anniston Chemical Weapons Disposal to Begin Next Week

After receiving a legal thumbs-up from the Alabama Department of Environmental Management, the U.S. Army is set to begin destroying chemical weapons stockpiles at the Anniston Army Deport next week, acting Army Secretary Les Brownlee said yesterday (see GSN, July 28).

Brownlee ordered the destruction to begin Aug. 6 despite concerns about the 250,000 residents who live within 30 miles of the depot.

“Public safety remains our principal interest,” Brownlee said yesterday (Kyle Wingfield, Associated Press/Birmingham News, Aug. 1).


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Missile Proliferation



Missile Defense

U.S. Plans:  Defense Department Suspends Space-Based Kinetic Interceptor

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has suspended plans to develop a space-based kinetic weapon to intercept ballistic missiles in their boost phases, Defense Daily reported today (see GSN, July 15).

The agency is still developing plans for a ground-based version of the program, but officials decided the technology for a space-based weapon was not mature enough to move forward.  The Pentagon has cancelled planned industry days on the space-based program.

“With the funding constraints and anticipated cuts to the boost-phase accounts in the FY ’04 defense bill, the space-based boost just does not fit,” an industry official said (see GSN, July 3).  The program, however, has not been shelved completely, Defense Daily reported (Kerry Gildea, Defense Daily, Aug. 1).


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