No Evidence of State-Sponsored WMD Proliferation to Terrorists, Former Israeli Official Says

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The prospect of terrorists acquiring WMD materials from friendly governments or the black market poses no major threat to the international community, a former senior Israeli intelligence official said here yesterday.

The black market WMD supply “is a threat that should not be ignored, but it is not a major threat,” said Ilan Mizrahi, former deputy director of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service.

He said further that there are no significant signs of governments providing terrorists with chemical, biological, nuclear or radiological weapon materials.

“There is no hard evidence to suggest that states supply WMD to terrorist organizations,” he said.

Of all terrorist groups, al-Qaeda poses the greatest WMD threat, Mizrahi said.

That group already has the know-how and production capability to manufacture chemical and biological weapons from materials obtained within a targeted country, he said, and while interested in nuclear or radiological weapons, al-Qaeda would have difficulty acquiring, handling and smuggling them.

U.S. Maintains Its Threat Assessment

The Bush administration has asserted that some states might one day share WMD capabilities with terrorists and therefore could be justifiably attacked to prevent a WMD attack.

President George W. Bush reaffirmed the U.S. position Tuesday in his address to the United Nations.

“The deadly combination of outlaw regimes and terror networks and weapons of mass murder is a peril that cannot be ignored or wished away.  If such a danger is allowed to fully materialize, all words, all protests, will come too late.  Nations of the world must have the wisdom and the will to stop grave threats before they arrive,” Bush said.

Today, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Stephen Rademaker told Global Security Newswire that the potential for WMD proliferation to terrorists is real, even if past evidence of state sponsorship is lacking.

“First of all, many states with a track record of supporting terrorism up until now haven’t had weapons of mass destruction,” he said after addressing the conference.

In addition, Rademaker said, it would be a mistake “to count on the good will of state sponsors of terrorism to continue to exercise restraint and to continue to only provide only low-level support of terrorism and to not provide weapons of mass destruction once they have them.”

Incomplete Information Cited

Mizrahi acknowledged that “substantial and definitive information” on black market WMD activity is lacking.

He said that media accounts have described anywhere from 200 to 1,000 WMD material smuggling incidents from 1991 to 2003, but cautioned, “We have to remember that what was seized and exposed might represent only a fraction,” of the actual trade, he said.

Such uncertainty “reflects how problematic these statistics on these matters are,” he said.

He said, though, that the number of black market smuggling busts appears to have sharply decreased in the last four years, perhaps reflecting greater international law enforcement attention.

Describing the Smugglers

Some of the deals that authorities have successfully stopped were conducted by renegade state officials and former military personnel, he said.

“The sellers were ex-military and –KGB personnel, [and] senior corrupted officials in WMD sites who have ideological sympathy for certain states or certain organizations,” Mizrahi said.

He cited Russia (including Chechnya), Pakistan, Ethiopia and Kazakhstan as nations where such people had been identified.

Mizrahi also said some smugglers are motivated by a desire for cash and said suspected WMD materials in Iraq could be a potential source of black market proliferation.

“What did they do, destroy it or hide it?  If they hid it, there is a potential for reaching terrorist organizations,” he said.

Buyers have included “Chechens, underground terrorist organizations in Latin America, extreme cult sects, lunatics and of course al-Qaeda,” he said.

As the most advanced terrorist organization, al-Qaeda now has chemical and biological weapon capabilities, “so that there is no urgent need for [the] black market,” Mizrahi said.

As for nuclear or radiological weapon materials, he said al-Qaeda has tried and failed in recent years to acquire them.

“After all, it is a very complicated and risky job to buy, to transfer, and to store” those materials, he said, but warned that al-Qaeda has not given up such efforts.

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Coalition Forces Focus Search on Iraqi Chemical Weapons

Three U.S. intelligence officials have said that U.S. forces searching for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq are now only searching for a small stockpile of chemical weapons, USA Today reported today (see GSN, Sept. 25).

The Iraq Survey Group, which is conducting the search, has concluded that prewar Iraq did not possess nuclear weapons and only possessed minimal elements of a nuclear weapons program, according to the officials.  They also said Iraq’s alleged stockpiles of biological weapons would be now useless because of the agents’ short shelf life.  The unit, headed by CIA envoy David Kay, has also found no evidence that Iraq attempted to smuggle weapons of mass destruction out of the country to avoid detection by U.N. weapons inspectors, the officials said.

The unit now believes that Iraq hid small quantities of long-lasting chemical weapons agents at sites that have not yet been discovered, according to USA Today.  The amount of unaccounted for Iraqi chemical weapons at the time the war began in March was small enough to fit in a swimming pool, according to a unit analysis.

“There is still a huge set of missing chemical weapons that will be found,” one of the three intelligence officials said.  “The guys have a lot of digging to do in hot, remote places to find them,” the official said (Diamond/Nichols, USA Today, Sept. 26).

White House press secretary Scott McClellan said yesterday that the Bush administration still believes that former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction.

“We continue to believe that he possessed weapons of mass destruction, had a weapons of mass destruction program and Dr. Kay is going to pull together a full picture,” McClellan said (John Lumpkin, Associated Press/Salon.com, Sept. 26).

Powell Defends Earlier Iraq WMD Assessment

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell yesterday defended a statement he made in early 2001 that Iraq did not have “any significant capability with respect to weapons of mass destruction.”

Powell was asked about the Feb. 24, 2001, remark after it was found on a U.S. State Department Web site, according to the Washington Post.  He defended the statement by saying that more information on Iraq was later discovered.

“What I said was, at that time, three weeks into the administration, when I was trying to get sanctions retained — and we did succeed in getting sanctions retained — I made that observation,” Powell said.  “You’ll note that I did not say that he didn’t have weapons of mass destruction. … He was a threat then.  The extent of his holdings were yet to be determined.  It was early in the administration and, fact of the matter, it was long before 9/11,” he said (Dana Milbank, Washington Post, Sept. 26).

U.S. President George W. Bush also defended Powell yesterday, saying the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks had led to a re-evaluation of the threat posed by Hussein.

“9/11 changed my calculation.  It made it really clear we have to deal with threats before they come on our shore,” Bush said.  “You know, for a long period of time, we thought oceans could protect us from danger, and we learned a tough lesson on September the 11th.  It’s really important for this nation to continue to chase down and deal with threats before they materialize, and we learned that on September the 11th,” he said (Federal News Service transcript, Sept. 25).

New Evidence on Iraqi Drones

A U.S. defense official has said that evidence found in Iraq helps to support the prewar claim made by the Bush administration that Iraq was developing unmanned aerial vehicles for use in conducting biological and chemical weapons attacks, according to the Washington Post (see GSN, Sept. 2).

The official described a report of an interrogation of a former member of Hussein’s “inner circle” who said Hussein had ordered accelerated production of drones shortly before the war for use in attack missions, the Post reported.  Some U.S. analysts have argued, however, that the drones were meant to be used in reconnaissance missions (Bradley Graham, Washington Post, Sept. 26).

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U.S. Senate Approves Fiscal 2004 Defense Appropriations Bill

The U.S. Senate yesterday voted 95-0 to approve the fiscal 2004 defense appropriations bill, which provides almost $370 billion for the U.S. Defense Department, according to the Associated Press (see GSN, Sept. 25).

The $368 billion bill, which was approved by the House of Representatives earlier this week, includes $9.1 billion to build a national missile defense system, an increase of $140 million over this year’s funding.  The bill does not address $87 billion requested separately by President George W. Bush to pay for military operation in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The bill is a “demonstration of our support, of Congress’ support, of our men and women in uniform,” Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) said (Jim Abrams, Associated Press/Contra Costa Times, Sept. 26).

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Northrop Grumman Receives Marine Corps Contract to Build WMD Warning System

The U.S. defense contractor Northrop Grumman announced yesterday that it has received a U.S. Marine Corps contract to build a new WMD warning system (see GSN, Oct. 2, 2002).

Under the contract, Northrop Grumman will build a Joint Warning and Reporting Network to provide early warning of WMD attacks, according to a company press release.  The five-year contract is worth up to $15 million (Northrop Grumman release, Sept. 25).

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Frustrated China Delays Diplomatic Visit to North Korea

China has delayed the visit of a high profile emissary to North Korea because of Pyongyang’s stance on nuclear weapons development, Kyodo News Service reported today (see GSN, Sept. 25).

Wu Bangguo, chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, was invited by North Korea and was expected to visit before the end of September.  Chinese officials reportedly visited Pyongyang to arrange the trip, but North Korea’s intransigence on the nuclear issue has put Beijing in a tough position, Kyodo News reported.  North Korean officials were reportedly upset by the six-nation talks in Beijing last month and have not yet agreed to future talks (Kyodo News Service/BBC Monitoring, Sept. 26).

Chinese diplomats are attempting to “narrow differences” over the format of future talks on the nuclear crisis, according to Fu Ying, the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s director general for Asian affairs.

“I think it’s a bit early to thing about a date.  We need to work on the substance to narrow the differences,” she said (Christopher Bodeen, Associated Press, Sept. 26).

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Bush Tries to Rally World Against Iranian Nuclear Development

U.S. President George W. Bush has appealed to world leaders to press Iran on its controversial nuclear activities.  Bush met face-to-face with several leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly session that began this week in New York, (see GSN, Sept. 25).

“It is very important for the world to come together to make it very clear to Iran that there will be universal condemnation if they continue with a nuclear weapons program,” Bush told reporters yesterday.  “And I will tell you, the response was very positive,” he added.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan recently said that the U.N. mandated Oct. 31 deadline to determine the nature of Tehran’s nuclear program is “one last chance for Iran to comply” (David Sands, Washington Times, Sept. 26).

Bush said that he intends to discuss Russian assistance to Iran’s nuclear development when Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Camp David presidential retreat for a two-day summit beginning today.

“You bet I’ll talk to President Putin about it this weekend,” Bush said (Scott Lindlaw, Associated Press/Los Angeles Times, Sept. 26).

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi said yesterday that Iran is willing to sign the Additional Protocol to its international safeguards agreement, which would allow for more intrusive monitoring of its nuclear activities.  His comments came before a scheduled trip by U.N. officials to Iran today for inspections and talks that will begin Sunday and last until Oct. 31.

“Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program nor does it intend to embark on one,” Kharazi said in a speech to the U.N. General Assembly.  “Thus we have nothing to hide and, in principle, have no problem with the Additional Protocol,” he added (Agence France-Presse, Sept. 26).

Kharazi also said that Iran should not be prevented from developing civilian nuclear power.

“There should be a more severe monitoring system to make sure no nuclear arms are produced, but that doesn’t mean countries should be deprived of the right to use nuclear power for peaceful purposes,” he said.  In a reference to Israel’s widely acknowledged nuclear arsenal, Kharazi also said “a single standard should be applied to everyone” (Barbara Slavin, USA Today, Sept. 25).

New Find Causes Controversy

A nuclear weapons expert today said that reports that U.N. inspectors had found traces of enriched uranium at the Kalaye Electric Co. near Tehran could in fact validate Tehran’s earlier claims.  David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, said the find could lend support to Iran’s contention that it imported contaminated equipment.  The contaminated equipment was reportedly assembled at the electrical facility.

“It would have been very shocking if they had not found HEU (highly enriched uranium) there,” Albright said.  “But Iran has to prove its point that it did not enrich uranium at all,” he added.

Kharazi that Iranian President Mohammad Khatami is facing domestic “pressure to pull out of the NPT [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty].”

Khatami is “in the middle of two sides of pressure.  You could imagine what could be the result of that,” Kharazi added.

He said, however, that Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “believes it (a nuclear bomb) is haram, it is forbidden.  We do not think have a bomb would create security for us.  It would create more problems” (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Sept. 26).

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Japan to Construct Nuclear Testing Monitoring Facilities

Japan plans to build 10 nuclear test monitoring facilities by 2007, sources said yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 24).

The facilities will be part of an international network of more than 300 monitoring stations established by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, according to the Daily Yomiuri.  The Japanese monitoring facilities are set to monitor seismic waves, atmospheric pressure and airborne nuclear substances (Daily Yomiuri, Sept. 26).

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Afghanistan Signs, Ratifies Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

Afghanistan signed and ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Wednesday, according to a CTBT Organization press release (see GSN, Aug. 13).  To date, 169 nations have signed the treaty and 105 have ratified it, including 32 of the 44 nations whose ratifications are necessary for the treaty to enter into force (CTBT Organization release, Sept. 25).

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Northrop Grumman Wins Modifications for ICBM-Related Contracts

The U.S. defense contractor Northrop Grumman has won an Air Force contract modification worth more than $130 million to help sustain U.S. ICBM systems, the U.S. Defense Department announced yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 12, 2002).  Under the contract, Northrop Grumman will provide a number of maintenance activities for the Minuteman and Peacekeeper ICBMs, including systems and sustaining engineering, testing, hardware and software contract modification and contract repair.

The company has also been awarded a contract modification worth more than $7 million for the sixth option year of a 15-year contract for the lease and infrastructure payment for the ICBM prime team facility, according to the Pentagon.  The prime team is required to be consolidated at one facility due to a need to vacate buildings at the Hill Air Force Base in Utah (U.S. Defense Department release, Sept. 25).

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GAO, Health Advocates Say Health Tracking Will Fight Bioterror

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — As part of the effort to prepare for a potential bioterrorist attack against the United States, health officials must take steps to better track and monitor public health trends nationwide, a General Accounting Office official said this week (see GSN, Aug. 6).

“Gaps remain in state and local disease surveillance systems, which are essential to public health efforts to respond to disease outbreaks or bioterrorist attacks,” according to Janet Heinrich, GAO director of public health issues, in prepared testimony this week to the House Select Committee on Homeland Security’s Subcommittee on Emergency Preparedness.

According to Heinrich, U.S. health officials must develop an efficient system to quickly move information from local medical workers to national health officials.  Current attempts to monitor health trends, she said, suffer from “chronic underreporting and outdated laboratory facilities.”

“Whether a disease outbreak occurs naturally or due to the intentional release of a harmful biological agent by a terrorist, much of the initial response would occur at the local level, particularly at hospitals and their emergency departments … however, preparedness limitations may impact hospitals’ ability to conduct disease surveillance,” she said.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention earlier this month awarded $4.2 million to 10 state and city governments in an effort to improve medical tracking.

Shelly Hearne, executive director of the nonpartisan group Trust for America’s Health, praised the recent grants and renewed her organization’s call for better health tracking in a statement last week.  While the CDC grant will be split among 10 health agencies — California, Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, New York City, Oklahoma and Wisconsin — Hearne’s organization projects that a comprehensive national health tracking network would cost $275 million annually.

“A robust integrated health tracking network will not only alert health officials to increases and patterns of diseases like asthma,” Hearne said, “it could also pinpoint a surge in illness that might indicate a biological or chemical attack had occurred.”

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FBI Creates Scientific Expert Panel to Aid in Future Bioterrorism Cases

The FBI has created a 35-member panel of scientific experts to develop new techniques for use in bioterrorism investigations, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Feb. 21).

The panel is part of an effort to advance the new scientific field of microbial forensics, according to the Times.  It consists of U.S. and academic experts in a number of fields such as biology, chemistry and forensics.

“If you want to do a good job, you go to the best,” said Bruce Budowle, a senior FBI scientist and chairman of the panel.  “They see this as an important issue and want to help,” he said (William Broad, New York Times, Sept. 26).

In addition, the United States is also working to develop a network of laboratories that could be used to determine the source of future biological attacks, according to the Baltimore Sun.  The main facility in the network will be the National Bioforesnics Analysis Center, set to be created at Fort Detrick, Md., which will maintain pathogen databases for comparison with agents used in future attacks (Scott Shane, Baltimore Sun, Sept. 26).

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