Central Asian Countries Pose Proliferation Risks, Have Helped Strengthen Nonproliferation Agreements, Experts Say

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

BOSTON — The five countries that make up the Central Asian region pose significant proliferation risks, but have worked to improve international nonproliferation efforts, experts said yesterday during a panel held at Harvard University.

The risks coming from the five Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — are generated by the remnants of the vast former Soviet WMD programs, according to experts.  Since gaining their independence, however, the five have undertaken several actions, such as working to create a regional nuclear weapon-free zone, that help to strengthen international nonproliferation regimes.

One of the most significant proliferation risks in Central Asia stems from the former Soviet biological weapons program, which used the region for production and testing of such weapons, said Togzhan Kassenova of the Institute for Politics and International Studies at the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom.  For example, stockpiles of dangerous pathogens remain on Vozrozhdeniya Island in the Aral Sea — pathogens that could be transferred to the mainland across the shrinking sea by animals or scrap metal scavengers, she said (see GSN, Jan. 9).

While Uzbekistan has made progress in decontaminating its section of the island, the Kazakh section still remains contaminated, Kassenova said.  The United States is helping to fund the cleanup of the island through the Cooperative Threat Reduction program.

In addition, poor security at research facilities throughout Central Asia and the “brain drain” of biological scientists in the region also pose biological proliferation risks, Kassenova said.  She also said the region is a natural home for several types of pathogens that could be used for weapons purposes, such as anthrax and hemorrhagic fevers.

Terrorists could also work within Central Asia to obtain nuclear weapons-related materials or other radiological materials that could be used in a crude “dirty bomb,” according to Kassenova.  For example, there are tens of thousands of “orphaned” radioactive sources throughout the region, which were used during the Soviet era for industrial and medical purposes and in agricultural experiments to extend growing seasons by warming the soil, Kassenova said (see GSN, Oct. 23, 2002).  To help illustrate the problem, she said that a 1992 survey in Kazakhstan compiled an inventory of about 100,000 registered radioactive sources.  Currently, however, only about half of those sources are still registered — a loss of about 50,000 sources, she said, adding that Kazakhstan was having the most success of the countries in the region in accounting for radioactive sources.

The legacy of the Soviet chemical weapons program also remains a proliferation risk in Central Asia, Kassenova said.  For example, she said U.S. forces stationed at an Uzbek military base in June 2002 detected the presence of chemical weapons agents — an incident that illustrated how remnants of the Soviet chemical weapons program persist in the region, she said (see GSN, June 24, 2002).  In addition, the porous borders in the region could also make it a transit point for the smuggling of Russian chemical weapons, Kassenova said.

During yesterday’s panel, Wendin Davis Smith of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University also complained that a lack of information on Soviet-era WMD programs helped to contribute to the WMD proliferation risks in Central Asia.  Russia has continued to withhold information on Soviet WMD efforts from both the Central Asian states themselves and from nongovernmental organizations working in the region on nonproliferation issues, she said. 

Aiding Nonproliferation Efforts

While posing WMD proliferation risks, the five Central Asian states have also helped to strengthen international nonproliferation regimes, said Mariya Kravkova of Booz Allen Hamilton Energy Practice in Washington.  For example, after gaining independence the Central Asian countries joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty as non-nuclear states, Kravkova said.  In addition, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have signed Additional Protocols to their International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards agreements, which gives the agency the authority to conduct more intrusive inspections, she said.  Kravkova added that Kazakhstan is close to signing the Additional Protocol as well.

In addition to joining the NPT, the Central Asian states have helped to strengthen international nuclear nonproliferation efforts through their work to create a Central Asian nuclear weapons-free zone, Kravkova said.  The five Central Asian states were scheduled to meet in Uzbekistan last month to continue their efforts to establish the zone (see GSN, July 22).

The zone, when created, will help enhance the international nuclear nonproliferation regime, she said, because it borders on two regions of proliferation concern — the Middle East and South Asia — and by the fact that it will be the first such zone in the Northern Hemisphere.

Kravkova also said that two of the five Central Asian countries have also joined the Biological Weapons Convention.  Not all the countries in the region have been able to join that treaty, however, because a lack of information on facilities would put them in noncompliance if they were to do so, she said.

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Wilson Says He Believes Identity Leak Has Endangered His Wife

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — Former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson said yesterday that he believed his wife had been endangered by the leak of her identity and CIA status (see GSN, Oct. 3).

The outing of Wilson’s wife as a CIA operative became public soon after he published a commentary in the New York Times criticizing some of the intelligence used by the White House to justify going to war with Iraq.  Last week, the Justice Department investigating the leak.

During an appearance yesterday on CBS’s Face the Nation, Wilson said he was concerned that the leak may have placed his wife in physical danger.

“In recent weeks, of course there has been this furor over the referral to the Justice Department and there have been a number of other people who have come out and suggested that perhaps this does make her a target.  We of course as a consequence of that have begun to rethink our own security posture,” Wilson said.

According to Wilson, a former CIA operative has said that Wilson’s wife “was probably the single highest target of any possible terrorist organization or intelligence service that might want to do damage.”

Wilson said that the Bush administration has so far declined to provide security to his wife.  “Nobody has offered security from the government, although my wife is a long-standing U.S. government employee,” he said.

“I would hope that the government was thinking its way through whether or not they wanted my wife exposed to any potential threat,” Wilson said.

Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) also said yesterday that, if Wilson’s wife was in any kind of danger, then the Bush administration should provide her with security.

“If there is the least possibility, the most remote possibility of her life being in danger then the government owes that person protection security,” Hagel said on Face the Nation.

Wilson also said yesterday that his wife’s career had been affected by the leak.

“My wife’s career will certainly change as a consequence of this, but my wife is a star in her business,” Wilson said on NBC’s Meet the Press.  “I have every expectation that her culture will embrace her and that she will continue to be a productive national security officer.  But clearly her responsibilities will have to change as a consequence of this,” he said.

During his appearance on Face the Nation, Wilson suggested that the White House engineered the leak of his wife’s identity to intimidate others from criticizing the administration’s justifications for war with Iraq.  In his New York Times column, Wilson described a visit he made to Niger last year to investigate claims that Iraq had sought to purchase uranium there — claims that he found to be improbable.

“It was clear to me that they had leaked my wife’s name for a reason.  The only reason that I could think of that was logical was to discourage others who might want to come out and speak more openly about their concerns about the manipulation of intelligence.  Keep them from doing so.  The message to them would’ve been, if you do what Wilson did we’ll do to your family what we’ve done to Wilson and his family,” Wilson said.

Wilson also said yesterday, however, that he did not believe U.S. President George W. Bush himself was involved in the leak.

“The president would never have condoned or been a party to anything like this,” he said.

Justice Department Investigation

Meanwhile, White House press secretary Scott McClellan said Friday that the Justice Department had sent the White House a request for certain types of material as part of its investigation into the leak.  The request is being sent to all White House staff, he said during a White House press briefing.

The White House plans to fully comply with the new request, McClellan said.

“The president has directed everyone to cooperate fully with the Department of Justice.  We want to get to the bottom of this, the sooner the better,” he said.

Late last week, however, Democrats continued their calls for the appointment of a special counsel to oversee the leak investigation.  During a press conference Thursday, Senator Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) formally called on Attorney General John Ashcroft to recuse himself from the investigation.  He noted the ties between Ashcroft and senior administration officials, as well as those between senior Justice Department staff who advise Ashcroft and the White House, the Republican National Committee and the Bush presidential campaign. 

For example, according to Schumer, acting Deputy Attorney General Robert McCallum was inducted along with Bush into the Skull and Bones student society at Yale University in 1968.  In addition, Solicitor General Ted Olson served as lead counsel for Bush during the 2002 Florida presidential election recount, Schumer said.

“The bottom line is that the attorney general is so inextricably locked up with the people he’s investigating, he can’t do a fair job.  It’s basically impossible.  And so special counsel is the best way to go until he decides that he should be recused — plain and simple,” Schumer said.

The White House Thursday, however, rejected Schumer’s call for Ashcroft to step down from the investigation.

“I would remind you that the career Justice Department officials are the ones who are leading this investigation.  These are individuals with fast experience and are in the best position to get to the bottom of this.  The Justice Department wants to get to the bottom of this,” McClellan said.

While defending Ashcroft’s objectivity, Hagel yesterday suggested that a special counsel might be needed to be appointed some time in the future.

“If a special prosecutor [or] special counsel might be warranted sometime in the future, that option is there.  Right now, I think we should let the system play out the way it is and find out some answers,” Hagel said on Face the Nation.

Novak Defends Himself

In addition yesterday, Robert Novak, the columnist who published Wilson’s wife’s name and CIA status in mid-July, defended his actions and denied that he was part of a coordinated effort to reveal Wilson’s wife’s identity.

During an appearance on Meet the Press, Novak said he did not believe that White House officials had attempted to intentionally leak Wilson’s wife’s identity to him.

“I have been a plantee in this town for over 40 years.  I know when somebody is trying to plant a story,” Novak said.  “This thing came up almost off handedly in the course of a very long conversation with a senior official about many things,” he said.

Novak also said that the purpose of his column had been to examine Wilson’s credentials for his trip to Niger.

“I thought that it was very strange that the mission … should be done by a diplomat with no experience in counterproliferation, who was regarded as a critic of the war, and really had no experience at the agency,” Novak said.  “So in interviewing a senior administration official on a number of other subjects, I asked him if he could explain why, and he said, ‘Well, his wife works in the counterproliferation section at the CIA, and that she suggested it, his mission.’  And it was given to me as an off-hand manner and by a person who is not, as I wrote in the column — not a partisan gunslinger by any means,” Novak said.

Novak yesterday refused to comment on Justice’s investigation into leak, including whether the department had contacted him.

“My lawyers asked me not to talk about the investigation at all,” he said.

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Blair Knew Iraq Was Not a WMD Threat, Former Official Says

Former British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook has said he believes Prime Minister Tony Blair knew shortly before Operation Iraqi Freedom that Iraq probably did not possess usable weapons of mass destruction, the Associated Press reported yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 30).

In excerpts from Cook’s diary published yesterday in the London Sunday Times, the former leader of the House of Commons described a conversation he had with Blair on March 5, two weeks before the war, according to AP.  Cook wrote that he had asked Blair if he was concerned that Iraq would use chemical weapon against British troops.

Cook wrote that Blair had said, “Yes, but all the effort he has had to put into concealment makes it difficult for him to assemble them quickly for use.”

Cook also wrote in his diary that his conversation with Blair disturbed him because it suggested that the decision to go to war was not based on the result of U.N. weapons inspections and because Blair had not attempted to counter Cook’s claims that Iraq did not possess long-range weapons of mass destruction.

Blair’s office has rejected Cook’s claims, AP reported.

“The idea that the prime minister ever said that [former Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein didn’t have weapons of mass destruction is absurd,” a Blair spokesman said.  “His views have been consistent throughout, both publicly and privately, as his cabinet colleagues know,” the spokesman said (Michael McDonough, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Oct. 5).

Cook’s diary excerpts could add to Blair’s political woes, according to BBC News. 

Cook’s comments, along with the recent report from the Iraq Survey Group saying no weapons of mass destruction have yet been found in Iraq, could “make for a torrid autumn for the prime minister,” said Menzies Campbell, foreign affairs spokesman for the Liberal Democrat Party.

“If these allegations are true they are explosive,” Campbell said.

Former British Culture Secretary Chris Smith agreed that Cook’s diary excerpts could damage Blair politically.

“If he [Blair] keeps on insisting, without any sort of qualification at all, that he was right all along and we did the right thing and we haven’t learnt any lessons from what we now know, then I fear that the electoral water is going to continue to be very choppy for him,” Smith said (BBC News, Oct. 5).

Iraqi Scientists Attacked After Cooperating With United States

Meanwhile, two Iraqi weapons scientists were attacked after talking with U.S. officials involved in the search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported yesterday.

Chief U.S. weapons inspector David Kay said Friday that one Iraqi scientist who cooperated with the Iraq Survey Group was killed in an apparent assassination.  A second scientist who cooperated was seriously injured in a separate attack, Kay said (Larry Kaplow, Cox/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Oct. 5).

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Kay Reports Finding No Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction, But Some Biological Warfare “Activities”

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — After three months of searching, U.S.-led investigators have found no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the lead investigator David Kay told the U.S. Congress yesterday (see GSN, Oct. 2).

They also have found no evidence that Iraq had active nuclear or chemical weapons programs when U.S. and British forces invaded last March, nor have they discovered any evidence of biological weapons production, though they did find evidence suggesting clandestine research activity on weapons-capable biological agents, he said.

The 1,200-member, U.S.-sponsored team, called the Iraq Survey Group, also ruled out the possibility that two equipment-laden trailers found this spring in Iraq were intended for mobile biological weapons production (see GSN, Aug. 11), despite U.S. President George W. Bush’s May declaration that the trailers proved “we found the weapons of mass destruction” (see GSN, June 2).

In addition, Kay reported that no information has been uncovered to indicate that Iraq had prepared chemical rounds for rapid deployment against the invading forces (see GSN, Sept. 30).

Despite the lack of weapon discoveries, Kay said his team has uncovered “dozens of WMD-related program activities” and equipment previously concealed from U.N. inspectors.

He said his conclusions were preliminary and that further investigation is warranted.

“We have not yet found stocks of weapons, but we are not yet at the point where we can say definitively either that such weapons stocks do not exist or that they existed before the war and our only task is to find whether they have gone,” Kay said in testimony to a joint hearing of the House and Senate intelligence committees that was released to the public.

“We are still very much in the collection and analysis mode,” he said.

The Bush administration had cited a threat posed by Iraqi weapons of mass destruction to make its case for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, which began last March and the subsequent occupation.  Some officials had said there was evidence Iraq was attempting to develop nuclear weapons and that they feared Iraq might one day share them with terrorists.

Invading U.S. military forces did not report finding any banned weapons, however, and the Bush administration has been criticized for using the survey group instead of the standing U.N. arms inspection commission to search for banned weapons.

The group so far has spent an estimated $300 million on the search and the administration reportedly is asking for another $600 million and six to nine months more to continue the investigation, according to the New York Times.

No Visible Nuclear or Chemical Weapons Programs

Kay said deposed Iraqi President Saddam Hussein wanted to obtain nuclear weapons and would have if U.N. sanctions had been lifted.

He said, though, that “to date we have not uncovered evidence that Iraq undertook significant post-1998 steps to actually build nuclear weapons or produce fissile material.”

He said there was no indication of activities related to an Iraqi centrifuge enrichment program.  U.S. intelligence agencies had previously reported that Iraqi had tried to import aluminum tubes for uranium enrichment centrifuges.

Kay’s team did find, however, some evidence that Iraq took steps to preserve some technological capability from its pre-1991 nuclear weapons program.

Kay also said Iraq appeared to have no significant chemical weapons program.

“Multiple sources with varied access and reliability have told ISG that Iraq did not have a large, ongoing, centrally controlled CW program after 1991,” he said.

“Information found to date suggests that Iraq’s large-scale capability to develop, produce, and fill new CW munitions was reduced — if not entirely destroyed — during Operations Desert Storm and Desert Fox, 13 years of U.N. sanctions and U.N. inspections,” he said.

Biological Weapons Activities Suspected

While Kay indicated no evidence of biological weapons stores or production, he said the group uncovered “significant information” indicating “biological warfare activities,” including “research and development of BW-applicable organisms, the involvement of Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS) in possible BW activities, and deliberate concealment activities.”

“All of this suggests Iraq after 1996 further compartmentalized its program and focused on maintaining smaller, covert capabilities that could be activated quickly to surge the production of BW agents,” he said.

In particular, he said a reference strain of a biological organism that could be used to produce biological weapons was found concealed in a scientist’s home and that “new research on BW-applicable agents, Brucella and Congo Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), and continuing work on ricin and aflatoxin” that was not reported to U.N. inspectors was uncovered.

Kay said a prison that might have been used for biological weapons testing on humans had been “explicitly ordered” not to be declared to the United Nations.

He said investigators have begun to uncover a “clandestine network of laboratories and facilities” within Iraq’s intelligence apparatus that was not declared to U.N. inspectors.

“We are still working on determining the extent to which this network was tied to large-scale military efforts or BW terror weapons, but this clandestine capability was suitable for preserving BW expertise, BW capable facilities and continuing R&D — all key elements for maintaining a capability for resuming BW production,” he said.

Milton Leitenberg, a professor and arms control expert at the University of Maryland, said today the evidence Kay has produced so far on Iraqi biological agent activities does indicate a biological weapon program was underway, though a “little” one.

“I think there are no problems answering that there are no stockpiles, there are no weapons in the sense of munitions, there are no bulk agents. 

“But I don’t think you can say those things [Kay described] aren’t part of a program.  Every one of them is a material breach.  There shouldn’t have been a pathogen in a refrigerator.  There shouldn’t have been any equipment in a mosque.  There shouldn’t have been those two dozen or 20 laboratories in the Iraqi intelligence service,” Leitenberg said.

Two Trailers Ruled Out

Prior to the invasion, U.S. officials had said Iraq possessed trailers containing specialized equipment that were apparently intended for mobile biological weapons production and at least two suspected trailers were later found by occupying forces.

Kay’s report yesterday said the Iraq Survey Group was yet “unable to corroborate the existence of a mobile [biological weapons] BW production effort.”

It said an investigation ruled out the two trailers were intended for biological weapons production and other suspected purposes, saying “technical limitations would prevent any of these processes from being ideally suited to these trailers.”

Kay said the group has identified individuals who were at one time part of a mobile program and would continue to search for evidence of its existence.

Chemical Weapons Attack Plans Discounted

The Iraq Survey Group has also found no evidence that Iraq had prepared chemical weapons rounds for quickly attacking invading U.S. and British forces.

Kay said the inspectors “acquired information related to Iraq’s CW doctrine and Iraq’s war plans for [countering the invasion], but we have not yet found evidence to confirm prewar reporting that Iraqi military units were prepared to use CW against coalition forces.”

A British document controversially claimed an Iraqi order had been given to be capable of launching a chemical attack in 45 minutes.  President George W. Bush in September 2002 had restated that claim and the White House had issued a statement saying Iraq “could launch a biological or chemical attack 45 minutes after the order is given.”

As for Iraq’s ballistic missile efforts, the Kay’s team found evidence that Iraq was engaged in missile development activities “that would have, if [the invasion] had not occurred, dramatically breached U.N. restrictions placed on Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War.”

“The Iraqis were engaged in a very full-scale program that would have extended their delivery systems out beyond 1,000 kilometers,” Kay told reporters after the hearing.

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Amid Mounting Criticism, Rumsfeld Defends Iraq Intelligence

By Joe Fiorill

Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON ― As top U.S. weapons hunter David Kay told lawmakers his teams have “not yet found stocks of weapons” of mass destruction in Iraq — but cannot say for sure that no such weapons were present when the U.S. war in Iraq began — U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld yesterday defended controversial prewar intelligence on Iraq’s alleged WMD programs and how the Bush administration used the intelligence (see related GSN story, today).

Rumsfeld said at a Pentagon briefing that he has seen nothing that indicates prewar intelligence on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s WMD programs was “necessarily, in the aggregate, inaccurate.”  He added that there was “no debate” at the United Nations before the war “as to whether or not Saddam Hussein had these programs under way.”

“The only debate in the U.N. was whether or not you should wait longer and allow another resolution before deciding that the inspectors weren’t finding it,” said Rumsfeld.

The defense chief’s comments appeared to be at odds with statements by antiwar parties early this year in the U.N. Security Council.  Russian U.N. Ambassador Sergei Lavrov said March 4 that Russia's “own data does not confirm the U.S. charges” about Iraq’s weapons programs.

On March 7, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei and U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission head Hans Blix told the council they had found no evidence to support U.S. charges of revived Iraqi weapons programs but needed more time.  On March 19, as U.S. troops prepared to enter Iraq, Blix said that “3 1/2 months of work carried out in Iraq have not brought the assurances needed about the absence of weapons of mass destruction” and expressed regret that “no more time is available for our inspections.”

Rumsfeld’s comments yesterday came a week after leaders of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee wrote CIA Director George Tenet to criticize last October’s national intelligence estimate and amid increasing questions about how much influence top administration officials had in preparing the document, which administration members cited frequently in making the case for war.

Rumsfeld said he has “never seen anything that was perfect” in the area of intelligence and added, in an apparent reference to the format of the national intelligence estimate, “The collective judgment, with a footnote saying, ‘I don’t agree with that,’ ends up getting circulated.”

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Associate Joseph Cirincione called Rumsfeld’s portrayal of the intelligence “a rewrite of history.”

“The October 2002 NIE is notable for two things.  It was the NIE with the most dissents, and the most serious dissents, of any NIE in memory, and … it was strikingly different from all Iraq threat assessments that preceded it.  So the question is, what went on with that NIE?  Who intervened to make that NIE come out the way it did?” Cirincione said.

The answer, he said, is that Vice President Dick Cheney’s office and the Defense Department’s Office of Special Plans heavily influenced the preparation of the intelligence report.

Rumsfeld characterized Kay’s report yesterday as “some sort of an interim report,” adding that U.S. weapons hunters “have a lot of work left to do,” including visits to a number ― described by Rumsfeld as “quite low” ― of “suspect sites” they have not yet visited.

“Trying to, you know, make an early decision on it, it seems to me, would be not something that I’d have the confidence in doing,” Rumsfeld said.

Asked about a New York Times report that $600 million of the $87 billion the Bush administration is seeking for activities in Iraq is for continuing the WMD search, Rumsfeld said, “It’s classified.”  Asked why, he replied, “I don’t classify these things.”

In related news, Maj. Gen. David Cone yesterday criticized prewar intelligence about what advancing U.S. troops could expect in a battle for Iraq’s capital.  The remarks came as Cone briefed the press on an effort he has led to determine the U.S. military’s “lessons learned” from the Iraq war.

“I don’t think the intelligence was good at all in terms of what we expected from an enemy inside the city,” Cone said.

Asked about prewar concerns that the tactics of Iraqi forces defending Baghdad could include use of weapons of mass destruction, Cone said U.S. commanders told him that, before arriving in Baghdad, they believed “the question was when they would use it, not if they would use it.”

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Investigation Into CIA Agent’s Identity Leak Scheduled to Begin in Days

U.S. Justice Department officials will begin interviewing Bush administration officials in the next few days to find the source of the apparently politically motivated exposure of a undercover CIA agent, the Washington Post reported (see GSN, Sept. 30).

“We will move quickly to interview likely suspects in the next few days,” a Justice Department official said.  The CIA agent was identified to the media after her husband — former Ambassador Joseph Wilson — openly criticized the Bush administration’s justification for invading Iraq.

The quick action could be an effort to undermine Democratic calls for an independent counsel to investigate the leak, according to the Post.

Justice Department officials also intend to investigate administration officials at the Defense and State departments (Schmidt/Allen, Washington Post, Oct. 3).

“We will cooperate fully,” said State Department spokeswoman Susan Pittman.  Justice Department officials have sent “do not destroy” letters to both agencies, asking officials to hold on to phone logs, e-mail and other evidence (Associated Press/Baltimore Sun, Oct. 3).

“One of the first steps is you have to determine the universe of people who had access to the information,” said Justice Department spokesman Mark Corallo.

Meanwhile, Republican aides sought to portray the situation as concocted by scandal-seeking Democrats.

“If you make it a partisan squabble, it casts doubt on the whole story and people tune it out,” said a House Republican aide.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said yesterday that Democrats are trying to “sensationalize this issue.”

“Unfortunately, there are some that are looking through the lens of political opportunism,” he said (Schmidt/Allen, Washington Post).

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Iraqi WMD Hunt Expected to Cost $1 Billion; Kay to Report No Discoveries Today

While the CIA’s top Iraqi WMD hunter was expected to tell the U.S. Congress today that he has made no conclusive discoveries, the Bush administration is seeking an additional $600 million for the search.  Combined with money already spent, the total spent on combing Iraq for WMD evidence is expected to near $1 billion, according the New York Times (see GSN, Sept. 26).

The money is requested in a classified portion of the administration’s $87 billion supplemental budget request to fund military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The WMD search is being conducted by the Iraq Survey Group, a 1,200-member Defense Department unit whose activities are directed by CIA representative David Kay, a former U.N. inspector.

Kay was scheduled to testify today in closed sessions of the U.S. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.  He was not expected to report any conclusive findings (see GSN, Sept. 25).

The additional money would expand the size of Kay’s team to 1,400.

Some former group members have complained that the search is poorly organized and overfunded.  They told the Times that search teams have spent days and weeks in Baghdad waiting to receive orders.

“Even when hot tips have come in, it often takes days to mobilize a unit to visit a suspect site or talk to a suspect scientist,” one former group member said.

Others have criticized the spending practices of the group, charging that the group devoted its first weeks in Iraq to erecting air-conditioned trailers, new food service facilities, new computer hardware and software, and even a sprinkler system for a lawn.

“They kept unloading crates and crates of new Dell laptops,” said a Pentagon official (Risen/Miller, New York Times, Oct. 2).

Iraqi Diplomat Denies Seeking Nigerien Uranium

A former Iraqi diplomat, once suspected by the United States of trying to acquire uranium from Niger, has denied even knowing that Niger mined the ore, Time reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 11).

Wissam al-Zahawie, a career Iraqi diplomat since 1955, was at the center of the now-questionable U.S. claim that Baghdad surreptiously sought to acquire uranium from Niger to provide material for Iraq’s suspected nuclear weapon program.  In his January State of the Union speech, U.S. President George W. Bush claimed that Iraq had tried to buy uranium from an African country, but a subsequent investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency showed that U.S.-held diplomatic documents describing the deal were actually forgeries.

In 1999, while serving as Iraq’s ambassador to the Vatican, al-Zahawie was ordered to visit several African nations to encourage their leaders to visit Baghdad.  Iraq’s leadership hoped such visits would weaken the travel embargo to Iraq established following the 1991 Gulf War, he said.

“Frankly, I didn’t know that Niger produced uranium at all,” al-Zahawie said.

Al-Zahawie toured several African countries in early 1999 and successfully persuaded Niger’s then-President Ibrahim Bare Mainassaura to travel to Iraq.  Mainassaura was the only leader who accepted the invitation, but never made the trip because he was assassinated in April 1999.

In January 2003, al-Zahawie was interviewed repeatedly by U.N. inspectors who probed for information about his travels and the suspicious documents, he told Time.  He explained to the inspectors that Iraqi diplomatic documents were of two types, official notes that featured a government seal but were unsigned and correspondence between dignitaries that had no seal but were signed.

The U.N. officials questioned al-Zahawie about a letter dated July 6, 2000 that purported to describe the uranium deal, he said.  The officials told him that the letter had both a seal and signature.

“I realized the forgery when they asked this,” al-Zahawie said (Hassan Fattah, Time, Oct. 1).

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U.S. Congress Funds 12 New Civil Support Teams

U.S. lawmakers last week provided $88 million to field 12 new National Guard civil support teams (see GSN, March 7).

The money is to go for personnel, equipment and operating costs for the teams.  Officials have already positioned teams in 32 states, Associated Press reported.

The teams include 22 full-time National Guard members who are specially prepared to identify a nuclear, chemical, biological or radiological incident (Associated Press/KRNV, Oct. 1).

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U.S. Completes WMD Training for Search and Rescue Teams

The U.S. Homeland Security Department yesterday announced that it had completed training the nation’s 28 Urban Search and Rescue teams to respond to a biological, chemical or radiological terrorist attack (see GSN, Sept. 25).

The teams are intended to conduct rescue operations in and around damaged or destroyed structures, according to the department.

Homeland Security officials boosted the teams’ WMD preparedness by “enhancing the equipment and training and providing additional personnel to existing US&R task forces.”  The teams are now capable of conducting self-sufficient search and rescue operations for 36 continuous hours after a WMD terrorist attack (Homeland Security Department release, Oct. 1).

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Bush Signs Pentagon Appropriations Bill

U.S. President George W. Bush signed the fiscal 2004 defense appropriations bill into law yesterday, providing the Defense Department with $368 billion, not counting funds contained in an $87 billion supplemental request (see GSN, Sept. 26).

Excluding Pentagon spending for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the funding is a roughly 1 percent increase over fiscal 2003 (Associated Press/Newsday, Oct. 1).

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Bush Welcomes Investigation Into Identity Leak

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that he welcomed a Justice Department investigation into the leak of a CIA operative’s identity.  The operative is the wife of former U.S. Ambassador Joseph Wilson, who this summer criticized a key piece of intelligence used to demonstrate that prewar Iraq was seeking to develop nuclear weapons (see GSN, Sept. 30).

Justice informed the White House Monday night of its decision to begin an investigation into the leak.  The investigation was prompted by a July 14th column by Robert Novak, in which he named Wilson’s wife and her status as a CIA “operative on weapons of mass destruction.”  Prior to Novak’s column, Wilson published a column in the New York Times describing a visit he made to Niger last year to investigate claims that Iraq had sought to obtain uranium there — a claim that he determined was unlikely to be true.

During a brief press conference yesterday in Chicago, Bush praised the Justice Department’s decision to open an investigation into the leak and expressed confidence in the department’s ability to fully and effectively conduct its investigation.

“I welcome the investigation,” Bush said.  “I’m actually confident that the Justice Department will do a very good job.  There’s a special division of career Justice Department officials who are tasked with doing this kind of work,” he said.

Bush also said the White House would cooperate fully with the investigation.

“I have told our administration, people in my administration to be fully cooperative.  I want to know the truth, and if anybody’s got any information inside our administration or outside our administration, it’d be helpful if they came forward with the information so we can find out whether or not these allegations are true and get on about the business,” he said.

Congressional Democrats, however, continued yesterday to call for the appointment of a special counsel to conduct the investigation.

“If there was ever a case for the appointment of a special counsel, this is it,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said yesterday during a press conference in Washington.

“An independent investigation of this despicable matter must be undertaken immediately.  It must be thorough and it must be beyond question in terms of the vigor with which it is pursued,” she said.

During a brief and brusque press conference yesterday, Attorney General John Ashcroft rejected the calls for a special counsel.

“The prosecutors and agents who are and will be handling this investigation are career professionals with extensive experience in handling matters involving sensitive national security information, and with experience relating to investigations of unauthorized disclosures of such information,” Ashcroft said.

Republicans have charged Democrats with using the leak for political gain.

“Surprise, surprise, they are calling for a special counsel.  My goodness,” the Associated Press today quoted House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) as saying.  “It must be in their political handbook,” he said.

Pelosi yesterday denied that Democrats were playing politics with the issue.  “I think those kinds of accusations are pathetic,” she said.

For his part, Bush yesterday decried the culture of information leaks in Washington.

“Let me just say something about leaks in Washington.  There are too many leaks of classified information in Washington.  There’s leaks at the executive branch, there’s leaks in the legislative branch, there’s just too many leaks,” Bush said. 

“If there’s a leak out of my administration, I want to know who it is.  And if the person has violated law, the person will be taken care of,” he said.

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Blair Defends Decision to Go to War With Iraq

British Prime Minister Tony Blair yesterday defended his decision to go to war against Iraq alongside the United States, saying he would make the same decision again today, according to the New York Times (see GSN, Sept. 30).

In a speech to the annual Labor Party conference, Blair said he went to war against Iraq because he believed it represented a new threat of a rogue state with the ability to provide terrorists with weapons of mass destruction.  Blair also countered critics of the British alliance with the United States, saying the decision to join Washington would help defend the country.

“If it is the threat of the 21st century, Britain should be in there helping confront it, not because we are America’s poodle but because dealing with it will make Britain safer,” Blair said.

While acknowledging critics of his decision to go to war, Blair also called for understanding of why he did so.

“I know many profoundly believe the action we took was wrong,” Blair said.  “I do not at all disrespect anyone who disagrees with me.  I ask just one thing:  attack my decision but at least understand why I took it and why I would take the same decision again,” he said (Warren Hodge, New York Times, Oct. 1).

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Draft U.S. Report Says No WMD Found in Iraq

Confirming unofficial accounts, a draft report by the CIA’s top WMD hunter in Iraq indicates that U.S. investigators have found no weapons of mass destruction there, U.S. officials said yesterday (see GSN, Sept. 24).

The draft interim report was prepared by David Kay, the CIA’s representative on the 1,200-member Iraq Survey Group, responsible for looking for evidence of Iraqi WMD programs. 

The draft report says that although no WMD stockpiles have been found, the survey group has found evidence of precursors and dual-use equipment that could have been used to produce biological and chemical weapons.  The team also interviewed at least one Iraqi security officer who said he had been involved in a biological and chemical weapons program shortly before the United States invaded Iraq in March, the officials said (Jehl/Miller, New York Times, Sept. 24).

Kay’s analysis of recovered Iraqi documents is expected to prove that Hussein had the “intent” to resume production of biological and chemical weapons once U.N. sanctions were lifted and weapons inspectors were gone, a senior intelligence official said recently.  Then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein “also had scientists working in small groups on nonweapons work who could quickly be shifted over if weapons were needed,” the official said.

CIA chief spokesman Bill Harlow said yesterday that Kay, who is now in Washington completing his report, is “still gathering information from the field.”

“Don’t expect any firm conclusions.  He will not rule in or rule out anything,” Harlow said.

Kay is expected to present his report to Congress late next week, the Washington Post reported (Pincus/Priest, Washington Post, Sept. 25).  U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said yesterday that it would be up to the CIA to determine whether an unclassified version would be released.

Kay will turn over his findings to CIA Director George Tenet, Rumsfeld said.  The White House had not established a deadline for Kay to do so, according to InsideDefense.com.

“It’s a matter of putting the pieces together, and then they do a judgment as to whether he (Kay) wants to wait for a final report, whether he wants to hand in some sort of interim report, whether it should be classified or not — all those are things that he and George (Tenet) are working out,” Rumsfeld said.

National security adviser Condoleezza Rice said that a version of the report might not be released at all.

“I would not count on reports,” Rice said.  “I suppose there may be interim reports.  I don’t know when those will be, and I don’t know what the public nature of them will be,” she said (John Liang, InsideDefense.com, Sept. 24).

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Congressional Support Growing for Syria Sanctions Bill

Congressional support is increasing for the Syria Accountability Act, which would require sanctions against Damascus if it does not end the WMD development the Bush administration has recently accused Syria of pursuing, the New York Forward reported this week (see GSN, Sept. 17).

“What we have heard about the WMD programs of both Syria and Iran is alarming, and people here are eager to take action,” a House International Relations Committee staff member said.

Supporters of the bill, which would require sanctions against Syria if it does not end its suspected WMD efforts, support of terrorism and occupation of Lebanon, said they are close to bringing it up for a vote, according to Forward.  While White House officials had previously said the bill would damage U.S. efforts in the Middle East, Undersecretary of State John Bolton told an International Relations subcommittee last week that President George W. Bush and his foreign policy advisers “do not have a position on the bill.”

The White House’s apparent decision to not vigorously oppose the bill should make it easier to pass, supporters said.

The Bush administration “went from opposing it to saying ‘we have no position,’” said a spokesman for Representative Elliot Engel (D-N.Y.), who co-introduced the bill earlier this year.  “We think this change is very significant.  We view this as maybe not a green light, but certainly a yellow light,” the spokesman said (Ori Nir, New York Forward, Sept. 26).

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$368 Billion Pentagon Budget Moves Toward Completion

The U.S. House of Representatives yesterday approved a $368 billion U.S. Defense Department appropriations bill for fiscal 2004, including the $9.1 billion the White House had requested for ballistic missile defense (see GSN, July 18).

The bill does not include the $87 billion war supplemental requested by President George W. Bush for fiscal 2004, which begins next week (Council for a Livable World, Sept. 25).

The bill includes $75 billion for procurement, which represents a $2 billion increase.  Procurement funding has increased each year since 1996, the Washington Post reported.

The House passed the spending bill 407-15, after seven minutes of debate, and the Senate is expected to take up the budget today, according to the Post.

Some lawmakers warned that continuing operations would make it difficult to provide sufficient funds for Pentagon modernization projects.

“We need to spend $15 billion to $16 billion just to refurbish equipment in Iraq,” said Representative John Murtha (D-Pa.).  A major procurement budget increase in the future, he said, “is not going to happen” (Dan Morgan, Washington Post, Sept. 25).

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Greek Security Exercise Tests Preparation for 2004 Olympics

Greek authorities this week are holding a two-day security exercise that includes biological and chemical weapons scenarios in preparation for the 2004 Olympics in Athens, Xinhua News Agency reported today (see GSN, May 20, 2002). 

A number of Greek and foreign security experts are set to take part in the map exercise, being held at the Athens 2004 Olympic Organizing Committee’s headquarters (Xinhua News Agency, Sept. 25).

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