Pakistan I:  F-16s Will Not Be Included in Proposed Aid Package, Bush Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A proposed U.S. economic and security aid package to Pakistan will not include the sale of F-16 fighter aircraft, U.S. President George W. Bush said today (see GSN, June 13).

After a meeting with Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf today at Camp David, Bush announced that he would seek congressional support for a five-year, $3 billion economic and security assistance package.  Of that $3 billion, half would go to defense-related matters, Bush said.  The sale of F-16s though, which has long been a sticking point in U.S.-Pakistani relations, would not be included, he said.

“In the package that we discussed … half of that money goes for defense matters, of which the F-16 won’t be a part,” Bush said.  “Nevertheless, we want to work closely with our friend to make sure that the package meets the needs of the Pakistan people,” he added.

In the late 1980s, Pakistan ordered 28 F-16s, but the United States embargoed arms sales to Pakistan in the early 1990s because it could no longer certify that Islamabad did not possess nuclear weapons.  Improvements in U.S.-Pakistani relations following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and Islamabad’s increased role in the war on terrorism, however, spurred Bush to lift the embargo and increased speculation that the fighters would be provided.

Musharraf today praised the proposed aid package, saying it “exemplifies the U.S. commitment” to long-term involvement with Pakistan.

“We look forward to diverse programs of cooperation in the economic, commercial, political and the defense sector,” Musharraf said.  “We also expect greater people-to-people contact and close interaction between the parliaments of the two countries to promote the cause of democracy,” he said.

In addition to the new financial aid package, Bush and Musharraf discussed the need to stop cross-border terrorism in the disputed province of Kashmir — a potential flashpoint between India and Pakistan.  Bush praised both Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee for recent moves to reduce tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries.

Both Bush and Musharraf said that the issue of Kashmir would have to be addressed in any larger Indian-Pakistani peace efforts, with Musharraf saying Kashmir was a “core issue.”  Musharraf reportedly last week criticized Indian suggestions that the topic of Kashmir be one of several issues discussed in any talks (see GSN, June 19).

In addition, Bush said, the United States would remain actively involved in seeking peace in South Asia.  “I assured the president that the United States will do all we can to promote peace,” he said.

Ultimately, however, peace and stability in South Asia will be dependent on India and Pakistan themselves, Bush said.  “The truth of the matter is, for there to be a final agreement, it’s going to require leadership from the both the Pakistan government and the Indian government,” he said.

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Iran:  IAEA Equipment in Place at Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility

The International Atomic Energy Agency has installed monitoring equipment at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Iran, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, June 23).

The agency has asked Iran not to introduce uranium into the facility, which is at the center of U.S. allegations of nuclear weapons development.

“The IAEA has all its safeguards equipment in place (at Natanz), and if Iran did try to move anything in, they would see it,” said a diplomat in Vienna.

Iran has denied allegations that its nuclear development program is a cover for a nuclear weapons program.  The IAEA recently reviewed a report on Iran’s nuclear program.  Another report, due in September, is “likely to be more conclusive, and expectations are going to be much greater from (IAEA) member states,” a diplomat said.

The September report will probably investigate whether Iran has already used uranium to test enrichment centrifuges and why Tehran is building a heavy water nuclear plant at Arak (Agence France-Presse/Yahoo!News, June 23).

Intelligence sources in the Middle East, however, said that Iran has already introduced uranium to four centrifuges at the Kalaye Electric facility, Jane’s Defense Weekly reported this week (see GSN, June 12).  The centrifuges were allegedly tested to prepare for the larger facility at Natanz.

The recent IAEA report says that 1.9 kilograms of uranium, previously imported from China, is missing.  Iranian officials said the uranium was lost through leaking valves on a storage container (Koch/Ben-David, Jane’s Defense Weekly, June 25).

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Pakistan II:  Authorities Arrest Two Found With Nuclear Documents

Pakistani military intelligence last week arrested two Italian nationals who were found with classified documents related to Pakistani nuclear facilities, authorities said Saturday (see GSN, June 19).

The two men were arrested in southern Pakistan on suspicion of collecting information about the Pakistan Atomic Energy Center in the city of Dera Ghazi Khan, said District Police Officer Qamar-uz-Zaman.  Since the arrest, all foreigners have been banned from entering the city without special permission, Zaman said (Agence France-Presse, June 21 in FBIS-NES, June 23).

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South Asia:  State Department Clarifies End of Sanctions

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The U.S. State Department issued a notice in the Federal Register last week seeking to clarify export control policy toward India and Pakistan by reiterating that all U.S. sanctions against the two countries have been lifted (see GSN, June 13).

The notice re-expressed the department’s policy of considering export license requests for defense-related exports to India and Pakistan on a case-by-case basis, rather than the previous policy of denial established in 1998.  The notice does not represent a new shift in U.S. policy, but instead seeks to clarify lingering uncertainties about the status of U.S. sanctions against India and Pakistan, a State Department official told Global Security Newswire yesterday, calling the notice an “item of good government.”

In 1998, the United States imposed sanctions on India and Pakistan after the two countries each conducted nuclear weapons tests.  In 2001, soon after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, U.S. President George W. Bush waived those sanctions on the basis that they were no longer in the U.S. national security interest, according to last week’s Federal Register notice.  Last year, U.S. sanctions that were imposed on the Pakistani Defense Ministry and the Pakistani Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission for engaging in ballistic missile-related cooperation with Chinese entities expired, the notice said.

The State Department official said he was unaware of any particular significance to the timing of the issuing of last week’s notice, citing the time often needed to prepare such measures.  The official also said he was unaware of any requests from either India or Pakistan for such a clarification of U.S. policy.

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Iran:  Tehran Prepared to Negotiate Over Additional Protocol

Iran is apparently moving away from a showdown over its nuclear development and is prepared to hold talks with U.N. officials, Reuters reported today (see GSN, June 20).

“We will definitely try to cooperate more than before with the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] and give them the necessary assurances about Iran’s activities,” said Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran’s nuclear agency.  The United States has accused Iran of developing nuclear weapons, but Iran says it is only developing peaceful nuclear power technology to meet the demands of a growing population.

Aghazadeh said Iran is not necessarily opposed to signing the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would allow more intrusive monitoring of Tehran’s nuclear activities.

“We have never said we don’t want to sign the Additional Protocol … Our view about the protocol is positive,” he said.  “Naturally, the way we will choose is the way of cooperation and reaching an acceptable settlement for both sides,” he added (Paul Hughes, Reuters, June 22).

Aghazadeh said he wants to begin negotiations for the nuclear inspections soon, but “there are ambiguities that need to be removed” from the Additional Protocol.  Iran will “study the demands of the agency” and “wishes to commence discussions with the IAEA as soon as possible,” he added (Agence France-Presse/Washington Times, June 22).

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, said that some segments of Iran’s leadership support the protocol.

“There is support inside Iran — in some parts of the government — for an additional protocol,” ElBaradei said.  “The longer there are negative doubts, the worse it is for Iran.  If I were in their shoes I’d take a peace offensive,” he added (Roula Khalaf, Financial Times, June 23).

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United States I:  Senator Criticizes Energy Department on Sandia Security

A U.S. senator has accused the U.S. Energy Department of failing to fulfill promises to investigate security problems at Sandia National Laboratories, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, March 21).

In a letter sent Friday to Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, Senator Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) cited a long list of reports of fraud and security problems at the facility.  While the letter did not provide much detail into the exact nature of the security problems, it did mention the loss of keys “to every lock at the lab right up to the glass doors to the reactor.”

“You need to address these and other security matters at the nuclear weapons labs,” Grassley said in the letter.

“The labs are in harm’s way,” Grassley said in the letter.  “There is plenty of loud thunder.  Lightning will surely follow.  The labs are in danger of getting zapped,” he said.

In addition, Grassley also said that two investigators who raised questions about security at Sandia, Pat O’Neill and Mark Ludwig, have reported that they were transferred to work in a rodent-infested trailer, that they were reassigned to noninvestigative work and that they had their annual pay raises reduced.

National Nuclear Security Administration spokesman Anson Franklin said that security at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories is the highest priority of both the NNSA and the energy secretary.  “We have multiple and redundant means at each facility to ensure that our secrets and materials are not at risk,” Franklin said (Matthew Wald, New York Times, June 23).

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United States II:  Energy Department to Hold Hearings on Sites for Proposed Pit Facility

The U.S. Energy Department is expected to hold public hearings this week in Amarillo, Texas, on the department’s proposed sites for a facility to produce new “pits,” or triggers, for nuclear weapons (see GSN, June 3).

One of the sites the department is considering for the Modern Pit Facility is the Pantex Plant in Texas, where nuclear warheads are assembled and dismantled, according to the Associated Press.  Other sites under consideration include the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Carlsbad site in New Mexico, the Nevada Test Site, and the Savannah River Site in South Carolina.

Energy officials are expected to decide by April of next year whether and where to proceed with the facility’s construction, AP reported.  Construction is slated to begin in 2011 and is expected to be completed by 2017.  The facility would then be set to begin producing new nuclear weapons triggers in 2020 and could produce between 125 to 450 triggers per year (Associated Press, June 23).

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Iran:  Tehran Says Nuclear Development Will Continue

Responding to an International Atomic Energy Agency statement asking Iran to show restraint in its nuclear program, Tehran said yesterday that it would continue with scheduled plans to add nuclear materials to a uranium enrichment plant (see GSN, June 19).

The 35-member IAEA board of governors yesterday appealed to Iran to hold off from putting nuclear material into the enrichment facility “as a confidence-building measure.”

Iran’s IAEA representative, Ali Akbar Salehi, said the nuclear development would continue and that Iran would not accept additional inspections of its facilities.

“Iran is already being fully cooperative.  We are happy that the board did not yield to pressure to adopt a resolution (condemning Iran),” he said.  “The U.S. is probably not very happy with the outcome because they wanted a resolution and they were not able to get (it) … The reason the resolution failed is that everyone knew there were political motivations behind it,” he said (Financial Times, June 20).

Salehi said Iran was opposed to allowing more intrusive international monitoring of its nuclear activities, but he reiterated that Iran would cooperate with existing IAEA activities in the country.

“We cannot bind ourselves to doing more than we are already committed to,” Salehi said.  “The process of cooperation with the IAEA will go on unhindered,” he added (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, June 19).

The U.S. representative to the IAEA, Kenneth Brill, said the statement released yesterday by the board of governors sent a message of concern to Iran.

“I’m very satisfied with the outcome,” Brill said.  “We have an important message from the board that supports the U.S. position and concern about the Iranian program,” he said (Richard Bernstein, New York Times, June 20).

IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said yesterday the agency needs more information about Iran’s nuclear development efforts.  He also repeated his appeal for Iran to adopt the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement, which would allow more intrusive inspections of nuclear facilities by IAEA officials.

“The jury is still out,” ElBaradei said.  “We still have a lot of work to do and we will be hopefully in a much better position to make a judgment by September or earlier if we can,” he added (IAEA release, June 19).

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Iran is close to signing the Additional Protocol, Agence France-Presse reported today.

“According to information that we have in hand, the leadership of Iran is ready to join all protocols, to all demands of the IAEA, concerning control of (Iran’s) nuclear program,” he said.  “We will build our relations with any country — including Iran — based on their openness in relation to the IAEA,” Putin added (Agence France-Presse, June 20).

The president of TVEL, the Russian nuclear fuel producer that is slated to supply nuclear material to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, said that the deal is contingent on Iran’s compliance with the IAEA.

“No fuel will be supplied until Iran’s entire nuclear industry is put under IAEA monitoring,” said Alexander Nyago (Interfax, June 18 in FBIS-SOV, June 18).

Iranian President Mohammad Khatami reportedly telephoned Putin to assure him that Iran was not developing or procuring nuclear weapons technology (Financial Times).

Bolton Says Military Action Possible

The United States has the right to use military force to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons but the thought is “far from our minds,” U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton told BBC today.

U.S. President George W. Bush “has repeatedly said that all options are on the table.  But that (military action) is not only not our preference, it is far from our minds,” Bolton said.

He added, however, that a military strike “has to be an option” and said that Iran is “pursuing multiple routes to nuclear weapons, and we need to get that stopped” (Agence France-Presse, June 20).

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North Korea:  Washington Pushes for Security Council Condemnation

The United States has prepared a draft document that it hopes will push the U.N. Security Council to censure North Korea for developing nuclear weapons, the Associated Press reported today (see GSN, June 19).

John Negroponte, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, discussed the draft with Russian, British and French diplomats Wednesday.  Negroponte met separately with Chinese diplomats yesterday, according to AP.

China has opposed any Security Council action on North Korea, and it reiterated that stance Wednesday.

In the draft, which would take the form of a statement from the council, Washington criticizes North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs “and the actions the regime has taken since last October when it acknowledged it was pursuing a uranium enrichment program.”

“The council calls upon the D.P.R.K. to immediately and completely dismantle its nuclear weapons program in a verifiable and irreversible manner, and come into full compliance with its obligations” under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Although Negroponte refused to discuss the negotiations over the draft, he said “we will certainly continue to pursue” the effort (Associated Press/USA Today, June 20).

The United States has informed Japan, South Korea and other partners about its effort to gain Security Council condemnation of North Korea’s actions.

Traveling to a meeting of Asian and Pacific states this week, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said, “we will make judgments in the weeks ahead as to whether we want the U.N. to take any action” (Kyodo News Agency, June 19).

North Korea, meanwhile, said again this week that it plans to develop a nuclear deterrent to a U.S. invasion.

“The D.P.R.K. will put further spurs to increasing its nuclear deterrent force for self-defense as a just self-defense measure to cope with the U.S. strategy to isolate and stifle the D.P.R.K.,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported Wednesday (Korean Central News Agency, June 18 in FBIS-EAS, June 18).

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NPT:  Former Officials Say Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Battered

By David Ruppe
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The 1968 treaty banning nuclear weapons from all but five countries continues to be battered by insufficient compliance, the holdout of key nations and outright cheating, two former senior U.S. diplomats said Wednesday.  The situation is threatening the fragile consensus upon which the treaty was built, they said.

To be effective, “the NPT must continue to be taken seriously by all of its members … and that means the nuclear weapons states, including the United States, need to be serious about their own NPT obligations,” former Undersecretary of State John Holum said in prepared remarks presented to a bipartisan congressional task force on nonproliferation issues.

The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty needs stronger safeguards and more rigorous enforcement, he said.  It is also challenged by risks posed by nonmember nuclear aspirants and from the failure of nuclear weapons states “to negotiate in good faith toward disarmament,” Holum said.

Although treaty parties agreed to a permanent extension to the treaty in 1995, that “clearly did not end the nonproliferation struggle,” he said.

The Basic Bargain

Thomas Graham, former general counsel of the defunct Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, said the treaty was made possible through a “basic bargain” between the nuclear states at that time and the rest of the world.  The former would agree to share peaceful nuclear technology and gradually move toward nuclear disarmament, and the latter would renounce efforts to acquire nuclear weapons.

Graham offered a snapshot of what the world might look like without the treaty.

Had the treaty not existed, he said in prepared remarks, “there could be as many as 50 nuclear weapons states today.”  He cited a recent International Atomic Energy Agency estimate that 60 to 70 states around the world currently have the capability to build nuclear weapons.

“In such a world, every conflict would carry with it the risk of going nuclear, it would be impossible to keep nuclear weapons out of the hand of terrorists because they would be so numerous and so widespread and indeed civilization as we know it would hang in the balance every day,” he said.

Half of the Bargain

Graham said the bargain was not being sufficiently honored by the nuclear weapons states, citing the United States in particular.

While 183 nations have signed on to refrain from nuclear arms, he said, “we have to face the fact that the nuclear weapons states have not fully lived up to their half of the NPT basic bargain.”

He cited four issues on which non-nuclear treaty parties had expected progress:

*         entry into force of the nuclear test ban treaty, which the Bush administration has rejected;

*         deep reductions in nuclear weapons;

*         a treaty terminating the production of fissile material; and

*         a legally binding agreement for nuclear states to refrain from using nuclear weapons on non-nuclear states.

Graham noted that the nuclear powers in 1995 had recommitted to those goals in exchange for an agreement on a permanent extension to the treaty. 

On the fourth point, he cited a Bush administration policy in particular.

“The United States, in its recent Nuclear Posture Review, indicated it did not believe itself bound by these assurances in that five states that were then NPT non-nuclear weapons states (Syria, Iran, Iraq, Libya and North Korea) were singled out as possible targets of U.S. nuclear weapons,” he said.

Holum criticized the administration for its interest in possibly developing new low-yield nuclear weapons and for abandoning the START II Treaty and other disarmament goals by instead signing the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty last year.

That treaty, also known as the Moscow Treaty, codified “low-hanging fruit” agreed to in 1997, he said, but it “actually slows the pace of [nuclear arms] reductions, and will leave higher numbers available at the end.”  It also requires no destruction of warheads or delivery platforms, he said.

“As you evaluate these programs, I invite you to measure their security rationale against the risks they pose to the NPT regime and the global consensus on nuclear nonproliferation,” he said.

Administration’s Different View

Bush administration officials have also expressed an interest in a strong NPT and suggested it is in jeopardy, but have argued the threat is weakened by insufficiently rigid enforcement and not by a lack of progress in nuclear disarmament.

The treaty is “dangerously out of balance,” said Assistant Secretary for Nonproliferation John Wolf at a preparatory meeting for the 2005 NPT review conference in April (see GSN, April 28).

“Without strict enforcement, the international confidence that has underpinned the treaty will dissolve, and the basis for peaceful sharing of nuclear technology will be destroyed,” he said.

Wolf said the United States “remains firmly committed to its obligations under the NPT,” and cited the Moscow Treaty and “other U.S. actions” as evidence of the United States moving to “promote the goal of nuclear disarmament.”

“Disarmament continues, and in fact took a significant step forward with the signing of the Moscow Treaty,” he said. 

“In two decades, the United States will have eliminated or decommissioned three-quarters of its strategic arsenal.  We have also given up whole classes of tactical nuclear weapons, and we have withdrawn remaining stocks from almost every overseas site,” Wolf said.

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Russia:  Moscow to Maintain All Aspects of Nuclear Triad, Defense Official Says

A senior Russian military official has said Russia plans to maintain all three aspects of its nuclear triad — air-, ground- and sea-based nuclear weapons — for the foreseeable future, Interfax reported yesterday.

“Russia will definitely keep its nuclear triad by the date set for the fulfillment of the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, and in the following years,” said Col. Yuri Baluyevsky, first deputy chief of the Russian General Staff.

Baluyevsky also said he believed Russia would fulfill its Moscow Treaty obligations by the 2012 deadline (see GSN, June 5).  “We will definitely fulfill this document,” he said (Interfax/CDI Russia Weekly, June 19).

For further information, see:

U.S.-Russia Nuclear Reduction Treaty Text (U.S. State Department)

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Iran:  IAEA Issues Statement on Iran; Criticizes Reporting Failures, Urges Transparency

Ending its deliberation on Iran’s nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors rebuked Iran today for failing to report nuclear activities and urged Iranian leaders to accept more intrusive IAEA monitoring of its nuclear activities (see GSN, June 18).

The board “shared the concern” of IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei over “Iran’s past failures to report material, facilities and activities,” according to an IAEA release.  The board also urged Iran to refrain from putting any uranium into its pilot enrichment facility.

Iran has recently said that it might accept the Additional Protocol, allowing intrusive inspections of nuclear facilities, if it is allowed to import advanced nuclear technology.  The board said today that Iran should “promptly and unconditionally” accept the Additional Protocol.  The board welcomed Iran’s commitment to maintain a fully transparent nuclear program (IAEA release, June 19).

ElBaradei echoed the board’s remarks, urging Tehran to cooperate with U.N. efforts.

“Iran should continue to be fully transparent,” said ElBaradei.  “We still have a lot of work to do,” he said (CNN.com, June 19).

A diplomat familiar with the proceedings said that the statement was relatively mild.

“The statement by the board was a reprimand, not a condemnation,” the diplomat said.  “But it was more than I expected.  It’s not a bad result,” he said.

The Iranian envoy to the IAEA, Ali Salehi, said he was glad it was not stronger.

“We are happy that the board did not go with the pressure to come up with a resolution,” Salehi said (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, June 19).

Russia, which is helping Iran build nuclear reactors in the southern city of Bushehr, applauded the statement.

“The IAEA executive board did not take the path of adopting strict resolutions censuring Iran,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov.  “Russia is satisfied that following consultations a carefully thought out declaration by the chairman was made,” he added (Associated Press/Russia Journal, June 19).

Bush Speaks Out

U.S. President George W. Bush said yesterday that the United States “will not tolerate the construction of a nuclear weapon” in Iran.

Iran’s nuclear development has accelerated in recent months, according to U.S. officials, who said the move may have come as a result of the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.

“They now see a nuclear power — the United States — right next door in Iraq,” said a U.S. diplomat.  “That has to be affecting their calculations,” the diplomat added.

Bush’s statement was a “carefully worded escalation,” according to a senior White House official.  “It’s not like this spilled out,” the official said (David Sanger, New York Times, June 19).

Bush also called on U.S. allies to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear device.

“The international community must come together to make it very clear to Iran that we will not tolerate the construction of a nuclear weapon in Iran,” Bush said.  “There’s near universal agreement that we all must work together to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon,” he said.

Bush encouraged protesters within Iran to continue their civil disobedience.

“I appreciate those courageous souls who speak out for freedom in Iran,” he said.  “They need to know America stands squarely by their side,” Bush added (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, June 19).

Iran Rejects Nuclear Accusations

Iran rejected U.S. accusations of nuclear weapons development and said that an IAEA report, which was issued June 6 and cited Iran for failing to report uranium imports, could be applied to many countries.

“Hardly any member state can claim to be impeccable,” said IAEA envoy Salehi (Mark Landler, New York Times, June 19).

Iran also said it would consider adopting the Additional Protocol and opening up its facilities to intrusive inspections if the IAEA could prove it was immune to U.S. political pressure, the Beirut Daily Star reported today (Beirut Daily Star, June 19).

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North Korea:  Powell Speaks With North Korean Diplomat

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell held a brief conversation with a North Korean diplomat yesterday during a chance encounter at a Pan-Asian security conference (see GSN, June 18).

Powell spoke to Ho Jong, a North Korean delegate to this week’s meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  Powell reiterated the U.S. desire for multilateral talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis.

“Briefly, at the end of lunch, they bumped into each other, they shook hands and exchanged a few words,” a U.S. official said.

Speaking at the conference, Powell said that “no issue is of greater urgency” to the United States than North Korea’s nuclear development (Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, June 19).

However, Pyongyang is pressing for one-on-one talks with the United States, Ho said in a speech during the conference (George Gedda, Associated Press/Boston Globe, June 19).

Frustrated by the lack of progress in resolving the crisis, the White House is pressuring other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council to censure North Korea for its continuing nuclear efforts.  U.S. diplomats held talks in New York yesterday with Russia, France and the United Kingdom to develop a statement condemning Pyongyang for its withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Washington hopes to have a statement ready by the end of the month, the Washington Post reported (Colum Lynch, Washington Post, June 19).

U.S. President George W. Bush did not, however, receive support from his Asian allies in the effort to move the North Korean issue to the Security Council.

“We have various steps to take” first, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said today.  Koizumi welcomed an appeal from Asian foreign ministers for Pyongyang to dismantle its nuclear capabilities.

“It is important for as many countries as possible to be interested in North Korea,” he said (Kyodo News Service/BBC Monitoring, June 19).

South Korea also urged patience in pushing the nuclear crisis to the Security Council.

“While the U.S. position is that the Security Council should begin deliberations within several weeks, our position is that the timing of such discussions should be decided after monitoring the developments in this phase of dialogue,” South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Lee Soo-hyuck said today (Yonhap News Agency/BBC Monitoring, June 19).

Japanese Shipping Controls Continue

Tokyo has cracked down lately on Pyongyang’s shipping links to Japan, and a North Korean ship sat idle off the Japanese coast for the sixth day yesterday.  The Man Gyong Bong-92 has not been allowed to enter port because of poor safety measures onboard.  The ship’s captain has refused to leave without unloading his cargo.  The Japanese attentiveness to ships’ safety came just after revelations that North Korea was using its shipping to smuggle missile technology out of Japan, and Tokyo has pledged to crack down on the illegal trade (Asahi Shimbun, June 19).

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Pakistan:  Musharraf Warns of Possible Greater Nuclear Dependency

Western countries should not allow India to develop a military superiority that would force Pakistan to rely solely on nuclear weapons for its defense, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said yesterday (see GSN, June 13).

A recent increase in Indian military spending, combined with continued restrictions on Pakistan seeking to purchase military equipment abroad, could create a “dangerous” military imbalance between the two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals, Musharraf said.  If such an imbalance were to occur, Pakistan would be forced to rely on its nuclear arsenal to serve as its main deterrent, he said.

“The other element of deterrence is your capability of striking and causing such damage to an enemy that is unbearable to him, and that can be done with a smaller force,” Musharraf said in an interview with the London Times.  “Every country has to survive.  Any country which wants to live in honor and dignity wants to preserve sovereign equality and its sovereignty.  Nobody will compromise with that,” he said.

Musharraf said he plans to warn U.S. President George W. Bush of the dangers of such a military imbalance when he meets with him at Camp David next week.  If defense purchase restrictions on Pakistan cannot be lifted, then a similar “embargo” should be placed on India, he said.

Musharraf also said that peace talks with India should begin as soon as possible, but criticized India’s suggestion that the disputed region of Kashmir be only one of several topics of the talks.

“Kashmir cannot be sidelined,” Musharraf said (Evans/Maddox, London Times, June 19).

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United States I:  Los Alamos Loses Two Vials of Plutonium Oxide

The U.S. Energy Department’s Los Alamos National Laboratory said yesterday that it could not account for two small vials of plutonium oxide, although it is believed that the vials had been discarded (see GSN, June 3).

The laboratory said it discovered that the vials, which contained plutonium oxide mixed with inert elements, were discovered missing June 12 after finding a discrepancy in its inventory.  The vials were not found during a two-day search, and a full materials inventory is now being conducted, according to the Associated Press.

While the exact amount of missing plutonium oxide is unknown, each of the two vials is smaller than the length of a pinky finger, said Los Alamos spokesman Kevin Roark.  The material could not be used to produce weapons, and was likely disposed of along with other radioactive waste without being properly logged, the laboratory said.

“This material has scientific and analytical research value, but is in a low hazard and threat category,” Los Alamos Director Pete Nanos said (Associated Press/Los Angeles Times, June 19).

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United States II:  Wolfowitz Defends B-1B Bomber Fleet Reduction

U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz yesterday defended the Pentagon’s decision to retire 32 B1-B nuclear-capable bombers (see GSN, June 2).

In 2001, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ordered that the 32 bombers be retired and that some of the savings in maintenance costs be used to upgrade the 60 remaining B-1Bs, according to Aerospace Daily.

“It may be a smaller strike force, but it is able to deliver, probably an order of magnitude more capability, pound for pound, and that is where the early investments have gone,” Wolfowitz told the House Armed Services Committee.

Both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, however, have approved proposals that would force the Pentagon to reactivate 23 of the bombers that were to be retired.  The Air Force has estimated that reactivating the 23 B-1Bs would result in additional costs of $1 billion in its operations and maintenance accounts through fiscal 2009 (Jefferson Morris, Aerospace Daily, June 19).

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North Korea I:  Chaos Could Follow North Korean Regime Change, U.N. Envoy Says

By David McGlinchey
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — A successful effort to topple North Korea’s hard-line communist regime could result in a chaotic aftermath, the U.N. envoy to the Korean Peninsula said yesterday.

In Washington to meet with U.S. officials, Maurice Strong spoke at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about his efforts to mediate the North Korean nuclear crisis (see GSN, March 24).  He urged a negotiated solution to the standoff and warned that a confrontation — economic or military — could have dire consequences.

Some U.S. officials have been pushing for an embargo to pressure and possibly bring down the North Korean leadership of Kim Jong Il (see related GSN story, today).  U.S. President George W. Bush has also refused to rule out the use of military force in the crisis, despite the pleas of his South Korean counterpart, Roh Moo-hyun.  No one has a plan, however, for developing North Korea in Kim’s wake, according to Strong.

“What does it collapse to?” asked Strong, “what is the alternative?”

He questioned the potential of a U.S. occupation of North Korea, in the style of present-day Iraq.

“If you want regime change, change to what?” he asked. Strong also said that those who were looking for the collapse of the North Korean economy might be late to the party.

“One could contend that that has already happened,” Strong said, but “they still survive.”

Economic Solution

After North Korea is assured its security and the international community feels confident that Pyongyang’s nuclear capability has been dismantled, a settlement to the crisis must include an economic component, according to Strong.

The North Korean leadership knows it has to open its economy and “they want to join the Asian economy,” he said.

Strong said, however, that strong U.S. leadership in the standoff could provide the most lasting solution since the end of the Korean War.  Bush could “place his stamp” as a peacemaker if he settles the nuclear crisis, according to Strong. The situation needed to bring about a lasting peace has “never been more opportune than it is now,” he said.

Strong also praised a 10-point plan, recently developed by Representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), which includes the dismantling of North Korean nuclear facilities in return for concessions from the United States.  Weldon formulated and proposed the plan — which Strong labeled as “very promising” and “ambitious but achievable” — during a recent visit to Pyongyang (see GSN, June 13).

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Iran:  United Kingdom Calls For Two-Month European Deadline for Iranian Compliance

The United Kingdom has begun calling on other European countries to issue Iran a two-month deadline to either comply with demands to address nuclear weapons concerns or face the loss of a trade deal with the European Union, the London Telegraph reported today (see GSN, June 17).

The British Foreign Office is concerned that the United States and Europe could come to a clash over differing approaches to Iran, with the United States favoring a more confrontational approach and European countries preferring engagement, according to the Telegraph.  In a message to diplomatic posts and some government departments, the office said that ministers had decided to implement a compromise approach that would “ratchet up European Union pressure on Iran” and issue a private warning to Tehran that the EU would end trade talks if Iran did not take action on several issues within “a clear short deadline (e.g. two months).”

“A sharp shock now, reasonably early, might act as a salutary warning to the Iranians that, as we must listen to them, they must take our concerns seriously,” the British Foreign Office message said (Anton La Guardia, London Telegraph, June 18).

IAEA to Discuss Iran’s Failure to Comply With Safeguards Agreement

Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors is scheduled continue discussions today on Iran’s failure to abide by its agency safeguards agreement.  The board “might not reach a decision on issuing a resolution of concern or merely a statement” from Director General Mohamed ElBaradei until the end of the week, IAEA spokesman Mark Gwozdecky said (RFE/RL Newsline, June 18).

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North Korea II:  Powell Seeks Asian Support For Cargo Interdiction Effort

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is expected today to seek Asian support for a planned U.S.-led effort to interdict suspect North Korean ships that could be carrying illicit cargo (see GSN, June 17).

Speaking before an Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting, Powell said yesterday that he would discuss the effort, the Proliferation Security Initiative, with foreign ministers from the 10 ASEAN members during the meeting today in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.  U.S. President George W. Bush first proposed the initiative, which would seek to block illegal cargo shipments of WMD-related materials, during a visit to Poland earlier this month (see GSN, June 12).

“As you look at what happens on the high seas with respect to piracy, drug running, shipment of weapons of mass destruction, you can see that there could be a broader agenda for discussing maritime security,” Powell said yesterday.  “Whether these efforts will blend together at some point, it’s too early to say,” he said (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, June 18).

North Korea today said it would attack the United States if Washington attempted to impose a blockade.

North Korea “will take an immediate physical retaliatory step against the United States” if a blockade is established, said the state-run Rodong Shinmun daily newspaper.  War “will immediately spill over to Japan,” the newspaper said (Doug Struck, Washington Post, June 18).

While the Korean Peninsula should remain denuclearized, North Korea’s security concerns must be taken into account, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said today.

“The D.P.R.K. security concerns should be appropriately addressed,” Li said.  “This is good for all sides.  This is good for world peace and stability and this is the general consensus of the international community,” he said.

Meanwhile, North Korea today also lashed out at the idea of holding multilateral talks to resolve concerns over its relaunched nuclear program.  The United States has insisted that China, Japan and South Korea all be involved in a round of planned talks.

“We can no longer expect anything from multilateral talks that the United States is proposing,” a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said (Cindy Sui, Agence France-Presse, June 18).

U.S. officials have predicted that the five-party talks will be scheduled within a month or two (Struck, Washington Post).

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China:  Defense Ministry Planning June Strategic Missile Tests

China plans to conduct three ballistic missile flight tests this month, ITAR-Tass reported Monday.

The Chinese Defense Ministry notified Russia that it would test a DF-31 ICBM, a DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile and a Julang 2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, all from a land-based firing range (see GSN, Feb.1, 2002).  The missiles would be launched toward a target range at Lobnor Lake, more than 2,500 kilometers from their launch point (Vladislav Kuznetsov, ITAR-Tass, June 16 in FBIS-SOV, June 16).

A Natural Resources Defense Council fact sheet describes the DF-31 as a three-stage, solid-fueled, mobile ballistic missile with a range of 8,000 kilometers.  The missile is in the developmental stage and is expected to be deployed between 2005 and 2010.

The Julang 2 is believed to be a variant of the DF-31, intended to be deployed on future Chinese strategic missile submarines which are years away from completion, according to the fact sheet (Nuclear Notebook, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2001).

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United States:  Kirtland Air Force Base to Receive $10 Million For Additional Security

A bomb storage area at Kirtland Air Force Base is set to beef up security with $10 million in improvements, the Associated Press reported today.

New fencing, perimeter lights and an upgraded power system and concrete cap will be installed soon at the base in New Mexico, which is believed to be one of the Air Force’s primary nuclear weapon storage areas, according to AP.  Funding for the project was earmarked in the fiscal 2003 defense authorization bill, which was signed by U.S. President George W. Bush in December (see GSN, Dec. 3, 2002).

The concrete cap will serve to protect the thousands of nuclear weapons stored on the base from a potential terrorist attack using an aircraft.

“This is a facility that is quite near a runway, and thus it wouldn’t take much to put a plane down on top of that,” said Robert Norris, one of the authors of a 1998 Natural Resources Defense Council report that estimated that as many as 2,450 nuclear weapons may be stored at the base (Associated Press, June 18).

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