Other Names: Shehab-4/-5/-6

Very little reliable information is available at the open source level concerning the latest members of the Shahab-("meteor" or "shooting star") family of ballistic missiles—Shahab-4, Shahab-5, and reportedly Shahab-6.[1] The body of information that does exist concerning these systems is confused and contradictory, yet several recurring themes exist:

• The Shahab-4 and -5 programs are believed to have begun in the early 1990s in an attempt to develop more capable and longer-ranged systems.
• The Shahab-4 is heavily dependent upon Soviet R-12 (SS-4 sandel) technology obtained from Russia,[2] particularly with regards to the guidance and engine sub-systems and specialized metals.[3]
• Russian technology for both programs is reported to have been funneled through Russian government agencies and private companies to a number of Iranian entities including the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group (SHIG).[4]
• The Shahab-4 is designed with the capability to carry a 1,000kg warhead to a range of 2,000km.[5]
• The Shahab-3 and -4 were designed with the desire to attain a capability to strike Israel and other regional targets from bases located within the country's central mountains.[6]
• The Shahab-4 and -5, like the Shahab-3, are liquid-fueled systems.

The first hints that Iran was developing a a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) came in May 1996 when General Binford Peay, commander of the U.S. Central Command, stated that that Iran was expected to increase the range of its missiles to make them capable of reaching targets in Europe.[7] This was followed in late 1996 and early 1997 by additional reports that indicated that Iran was engaged in a major ballistic missile development effort to produce both a MRBM and a intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).[8] The MRBM, with a reported range of 2,000km, was identified as the Shahab-4, while the ICBM, with a reported range of 10,000km, was subsequently identified as the Shahab-5. The Shahab-4 would allow Iran to target Israel and Europe, while the Shahab-5 could strike the continental United States. These early reports further suggested that both systems could attain an initial operation capability in 2000.[9]

In November 1998, Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani's stated that Iran was developing a missile with a greater range than the Shahab-3, thus capable of striking Israel and Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, he claimed that it possessed a range of only 1,300km (i.e., the same as the Shahab-3). This new missile was subsequently identified in press reports and by Shamkhani as the Shahab-4. Three months later, in February 1999, Shamkhani recanted his previous comments stating that while the Shahab-4 was in development, it would only be used as a space launch vehicle (SLV) for Iranian satellites and not for military purposes. He went further stating, "The Shehab-3 missile is the last military missile Iran will produce. ...We have no plans for another war missile."[10] Further confusing the issue, Shamkhani stated in May 2002, "For now, we don't have a process or project called Shehab-4."[11] Attempting to unravel the truth concerning the Shahab-4 and -5 became more difficult in mid-2001, when Iran is reported to have initiated a comprehensive review and reorganization of its diverse rocket and missile development programs. This effort is believed to have been initiated in an effort to prioritize and rationalize the entire development and production infrastructure and reduce costs. How this will affect the Shahab-4 and -5 programs is presently unclear.[12] Meanwhile U.S. and Israeli statements continue to identify an active Shahab-4 program and the strong possibility of a Shahab-5 program. The later, possibly being only in the design or engineering phase.

As of late 2003, neither the Shahab-4 nor Shahab-5 had been flight-tested. Mock-ups of both, and at least one Shahab-4 prototype, are likely to have been constructed. The configuration (i.e., number of stages, etc.) of either system is presently unclear. Reports frequently speculate that there may be a connection between the DPRK's Taepodong-2 program and the Shahab-5. This, however, remains to be confirmed. An Israeli report in July 2002 makes mention of not only of the Shahab-4 and -5, but also a Shahab-5B; however, it provides no details and remains suspect.[13]

Finally, a few sources make mention of a Shahab-6, which is claimed to be an ICBM with a 10,000km range (e.g., the same reported range of the Shahab-5). All such reports to date have been inconsistent and highly speculative.[14]

Available information suggests that Iran has, at most 1-2 prototype Shahab-4s (one of which may be an SLV) and possibly a preliminary engineering mock-up of the Shahab-5. If development continues and these systems are deployed, they would be capable of being armed with conventional high explosive, submunition, chemical, and radiological dispersion warheads. As with the Shahab-3, given continued development and a favorable environment, a nuclear capability for these systems could be achieved by 2008.

Key Sources:
[1] "Part II of Iran's Missile Program Article," Izvestiya, 22 October 1998, p. 5, as cited in FBIS; Central Intelligence Agency, Nonproliferation Center, Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 1 July Through 31 December 1998. All subsequent similar CIA reports to Congress contain essentially the same language concerning the Shahab-4 and -5 as appears in this edition.
[2] Although most sources mention SS-4, one source suggests that the Shahab-4 is based upon the Soviet SS-12. "Shehab-3 Test Provokes a Mixed Response," Jane's Intelligence Review, 25 August 1998.
[3] Philip Sherwell, "Russia Adds Range To Iran's Latest Missiles," Sunday Telegraph, 10 November 2002; Bill Gertz, "Russia, China and Iran's missile program," Washington Times, 10 September 1997, p. A1; Bill Gertz, "Cohen Details Threats Posed by Baghdad," Washington Times, 26 November 1997, p. A1.
[4] Ibid.; George Gedda, "US-Iran," Associated Press, 28 July 1998; Bill Gertz, "Russia, China and Iran's missile program," Washington Times, 10 September 1997, p. A1; Bill Gertz, "Cohen Details Threats Posed by Baghdad," Washington Times, 26 November 1997, p. A1.
[5] Bill Gertz, "Russia, China and Iran's missile program," Washington Times, 10 September 1997, p. A1.
[6] Michael Eisenstadt, "The Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran: An Assessment," MERIA, Volume 5, Number 1, December 2000; "More on Warnings of Arab Missile Capabilities," Middle East Newsline, 25 February 2000.
[7] "200,000 Troops in Region's Biggest-Ever Manoevers," Jane's Defence Weekly, 5 June 1996, p. 15.
[8] Missile range categories are short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM)—less than 1,000km (621 miles); medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM)—1,000-3,000km (621-1,864 miles); intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM)—3,000-5,500km (1,864-3,418 miles); and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)— greater than 5,500km (3,418 miles).
[9] "Arrow Deployment Delay Exposes Northern Israel To Iranian Missile Threat," Ha'aretz, 26 May 2002, as cited in FBIS; David A. Fulghum and John D. Morrocco, "First Arrow Battery Deployed Near Tel Aviv," Aviation Week & Space Technology, 10 April 2000, p. 66; Bill Gertz, "Iran Sold Scud Missiles to Congolese," Washington Times, 22 November 1999; "IDF Officer: Iran Nuclear Power in 5-10 Years," Hatzofe, 22 November 1999, p. 1, as cited in FBIS; "U.S. to Help Israel With Defense," Associated Press, 14 September 1998; "Israel-Russia Missiles," Associated Press, 30 September 1997. A recent report from Iranian opposition groups state that the Shahab-5 has a range of 4,000km and the Shahab-6 is an ICBM. See, "National Resistance Says Iran Exploiting Iraqi Crisis to Develop Own Weapons," Iran Mojahedin, 7 February 2003, as cited in FBIS.
[10] "Iran 'Armed and Safe' 20 Years After Revolution," Reuters, 7 February 1999; "Iran-Missile," Associated Press, 7 February 1999.
[11] Robin Hughes, and Steve Rodan, "Iran Claims 'Success' With Latest Missile Test," Jane's Defence Weekly, 5 June 2002.
[12] "Iran Reportedly Cuts Down Production of Ballistic Missiles," Al-Sharq al-Awsat, 1 August 2001, p. 3, as cited in FBIS.
[13] "Ghaddafi May Have Nuclear Bomb in Two Years," DEBKA-Net-Weekly, 25 July 2002, http://www.debka.com.
[14] For example, see "National Resistance Says Iran Exploiting Iraqi Crisis to Develop Own Weapons," Iran Mojahedin, 7 February 2003, as cited in FBIS; and Kenneth R. Timmerman,"Missile Threat From Iran," Reader's Digest,  January 1998, pp. 87-91. The various editions of the Central Intelligence Agency's Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, make no mention of a Shahab-6.

	Updated February 2006