Ballistic Missiles: Urgent New Threats

Concerns about the availability of ballistic missiles of increasing range center on North Korea, Iran, and South Asia.

North Korea

North Korea's August 1998 test of the three-stage version of the Taepodong-1 missile underscored its growing missile proliferation threat. The Taepodong-1 is a prototype satellite launch vehicle that could potentially be used as an intercontinental missile able to carry a light chemical or biological weapon payload to the United States. The North Korean test motivated the Clinton administration to accelerate work on U.S. missile defenses. Following negotiations with the United States in September 1999, North Korea agreed to halt flight tests of its missiles as long as bilateral negotiations "aimed to improve relations with the U.S." continue. Soon thereafter, the United States eased some of the economic sanctions it had imposed against North Korea under the Trading with the Enemy Act. In January 2003, days after announcing its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), North Korea threatened to end the moratorium on ballistic missile testing. This threat was later repeated in March 2003, following Japan's first launch of two reconnaissance satellites into orbit.  North Korea has persisted in the development of the Taepodong-2 missile, which has a greater range than the Taepodong-1. In addition, North Korea has reportedly exported ballistic missiles and related technologies to a number of countries, advancing the recipient countries missile programs.

On July 4, 2006, North Korea tested seven missiles, including a long-range Taepodong missile that blew up seconds into the launch. The UN Security Council condemned the missile tests and imposed economic sanctions against Pyongyang through UN Resolution 1695 on July 15. On October 9, North Korea announced an underground test of a nuclear device, and it has threatened to test a nuclear-tipped missile.

Iran

Iran's initial test of the Shahab-3 intermediate-range missile in July 1998 was another major development. This intermediate-range missile, based on the Nodong missile supplied by North Korea, enables Iran to attack Israel with WMD. The United States believes that, in addition to North Korea, Russia and China helped Iran produce the Shabab-3, a liquid-fueled missile with an 800-mile (1,300-kilometer) range, capable of carrying an 800-1,200 kilogram warhead. The missile could possibly carry a chemical or nuclear separating warhead. In July 2003, Iran conducted its eighth test of the Shabab-3, the first test in which the missile flew to its maximum estimated range of 800 miles. The missile was then given to Iran's Revolutionary Guards and experts believe that a number of Shabab-3 missiles have been deployed. In August 2004, Iran tested another version of the Shabab-3, which could possibly strike all of Israel as well as U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf.  With help and technology from North Korea, Iran is  reportedly developing more advanced versions of the Shabab ballistic missile with greater ranges, over 1,200 miles. Iran's ability to produce longer range missiles coupled with its plan to pursue a complete nuclear fuel cycle, raise concerns that it plans to develop nuclear warheads for its Shabab-3 missiles. 

Danger in South Asia

In recent years, India and Pakistan have acquired a variety of ballistic missiles able to carry nuclear warheads. These capabilities increase the ability of the two countries to wage nuclear war and conduct surprise attacks, creating a potentially unstable situation. On August 6, 2005, India and Pakistan agreed to notify each other before conducting ballistic missile tests, and to establish a hotline between their foreign ministries to prevent an accidental nuclear exchange. In July 2006, India unsuccessfully test-fired its 3,000-4,000 kilometer range Agni-3 ballistic missile that could potentially hit targets inside China. The Agni-3 is a two-stage solid-fuel rocket; it reportedly failed due to design flaws. Analysts warn that increased U.S.-India space and high technology cooperation could increase India's ability to develop and deploy inter-continental ballistic missiles.

Further Reading -
North Korea:

	NTI, DPRK Missile Overview
	CRS, Andrew Feickert, "Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries"
	CNS, East Asian Nonproliferation Program, "CNS Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities"
	CRS, Steven Hildreth, "North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States"
	CNS, Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) in Northeast Asia: An Annotated Chronology
	The Nonproliferation Review, Daniel Pinkston, "Domestic Politics and Stakeholders in the North Korean Missile Development Program"
	Wisconsin Project, "North Korea Missile Update -- 2005"

Further Reading - Iran:

	NTI, Iran Missile Overview
	CRS, Kenneth Katzman, "Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses"
	CNS, Iran Special Collection
	CRS, Andrew Feickert, "Iran's Ballistic Missile Capabilities"

Further Reading - South Asia:

	CRS, Andrew Feickert & K. Alan Kronstadt, "Missile Proliferation and the Strategic Balance
	Arms Control Today, Richard Speier, "U.S. Space Aid to India: On a 'Glide Path' to ICBM Trouble?"
	Disarmament Diplomacy, "Hesitant Rapprochement, Wary Diplomacy in South Asia"
	CRS, K. Alan Kronstadt, "Pakistan-U.S. Relations"
	CRS, K. Alan Kronstadt, "India-U.S. Relations"