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Issue. Russia's
command,
control, communication, and intelligence (C3I) capabilities
for managing its nuclear forces have deteriorated badly, including partial
loss of early-warning satellites to detect U.S. missile launches. This deterioration,
coupled with the high alert status of Russia's missile forces, raises concerns that Russia might
launch nuclear-tipped missiles at the United States in the mistaken belief
that it was under attack. Russian military leaders might fear that if they
did not immediately fire their own missiles in retaliation, they would be
destroyed by incoming U.S. warheads. In 1995, the launch of a Norwegian scientific
rocket triggered the first stages of a nuclear alert in Moscow, highlighting
the potential risks of this situation. Many
observers believe that accident or miscalculation is the most likely cause
of a nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia. Others,
however, do not consider such scenarios as threatening.
Options:
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Further Reading:
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Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies,
"Current Status and Future of
Russia Strategic Forces" |
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Philipp C. Bleek, "Fire
Shuts Down Russian Early-Warning System" |
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Geoffrey Forden, Pavel Podvig, and Theodore A. Postol, "Inside
the U.S. and Russian early-warning satellites" |
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Geoffrey Forden, Pavel Podvig, and Theodore A. Postol, "False alarm, nuclear danger" |
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NTI,
"Russia: Early Warning System Status" |
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WMD 411 Bibliography, Russia |
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