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 The United States
is concerned about the growing threat it faces
from intercontinental ballistic
missiles (ICBMs) armed with WMD. Shorter-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) already threaten U.S. allies or will soon.
For example, North Korea's Nodong can reach Japan. North Korea's Scuds
can reach South Korea. Iran's Shahab-3 and
other shorter-range systems can reach U.S.
allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Traditionally, the United States has differentiated between "national" and
"theater" missile defense to counter the threat from ICBMs and SRBMs,
respectively, but the Bush administration has eliminated these terms from the
U.S. vernacular. The proposed U.S. BMD architecture will employ systems capable of defeating both long-
and short-range ballistic missiles.
Background on the Threat. In July 1998, the Report
of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States,
also
known as the "Rumsfeld Commission Report," emphasized that missile threats
against the United States are growing and stressed that the threat could worsen
suddenly and unexpectedly. The report gained added influence on August 31, 1998,
when North Korea surprised the world with a test flight of its first three-stage
space launch vehicle (SLV), the Taepodong-1. Although the third stage failed, the
Taepodong-1 is the first North Korean missile that might be able to reach U.S.
territory (conceivably the western islands of the Aleutian chain in Alaska).
In 1999, the National Intelligence Council produced a report titled
"Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015."
According to that report, updated again in 2001, in addition to the
long-standing nuclear missile threats from Russia and China, the United States
by 2015 may also be threatened by:
- the North Korean Taepodong-1, a prototype satellite launch vehicle that
could be used in the future as an intermediate-range system able to cover
the entire territory of South Korea and Japan. Potentially, a three-stage
Taepodong-1 could be used as an ICBM able to carry a small chemical or biological
weapon to the United States;
- the North Korean Taepodong-2, a long-range missile believed to be under
development that might be able to deliver nuclear weapons, if North Korea
develops them;
- an Iranian ICBM able to deliver nuclear weapons (possibly based on the Taepodong-2).
As one element of its efforts to meet this challenge, the United States is
developing missile defense systems aimed at destroying incoming missiles before they reach their targets.
The United States believes that traditional deterrence
is sufficient to meet the Russian and Chinese
missile challenges; however, it is not clear how effective these approaches
will be against small, isolated, and confrontational states whose leaders have engaged in terrorism or aggression against the United States
and its allies and friends.
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Further Reading:
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National Intelligence Council,
"Foreign
Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
Through 2015" |
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CRS, Andrew Feickert,
"Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries" |
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Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, Joseph Cirincione,
"The Declining Ballistic Missile Threat, 2005" |
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NIPP, Keith B. Payne,
"The
Case for a National Missile Defense" |
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CRS, Steven Hildreth,
"Missile
Defense: The Current Debate" |
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White House,
Remarks
by the President to Students and Faculty at National Defense University |
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Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation,
Missile Defense |
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