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As one element of its efforts to meet this challenge, the United States is
developing missile defenses—systems that can destroy incoming missiles before they reach their targets.
The United States believes that traditional deterrence
and arms control agreements are sufficient to meet the Russian and Chinese
missile challenges. However, it is not clear how effective these approaches
will be against small, isolated, and confrontational states whose unpredictable
leaders have engaged in terrorism or aggression against the United States
and its allies and friends. Some analysts argue that in a conflict with Iran or North
Korea, the threat of U.S. nuclear retaliation might not deter the leaders
of those countries from attacking the United States with missiles carrying
WMD. This possible failure of deterrence might prevent the United States from
using conventional
military force against one of these rogue
countries to defend U.S. interests and allies in the Middle East or East
Asia. If the United States possessed missile defenses, however, it could protect
itself and its friends against a limited number of enemy missiles carrying
WMD payloads. Those advocating missile defenses also argue that if a rogue
country knew that it would confront an effective U.S. missile shield, it might
be discouraged from developing long-range missiles in the first place.
A small missile defense system would also protect against a separate threat,
the risk of an accidental or inadvertent missile launch against the United
States.
These concerns have led to increasing support within the U.S. Executive Branch
and Congress for the development of defenses against WMD-tipped missiles that
Iran or North Korea might deploy in coming years.
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