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It is possible that deterrence will, in
fact, work effectively against Iran and
North Korea.
Deterrence worked successfully against the Soviet Union, even when Josef Stalin
ruled that country. Stalin was one of history's most unrestrained and unpredictable
dictators. Deterrence also appeared to restrain Iraqi President Saddam Hussein
from using chemical or biological weapons (CBW) during the 1991 Gulf War.
In that war, the United States threatened to respond with devastating force
if Iraq resorted to CBW. This threat implied that the United States might
use nuclear weapons to retaliate. (The WMD
threat posed by Iraq has subsided in the wake of the March 2003 U.S.-led
invasion to overthrow the government of Saddam Hussein.)
It is also possible that U.S. diplomatic efforts will persuade states not to develop or deploy long-range WMD-capable missiles.
If the United States successfully renegotiates or successfully implements the
Agreed
Framework with North Korea, the United States may be able to eliminate
the risk of that country developing nuclear weapons.
U.S.-North Korean negotiations
could also result in a permanent extension of
the current freeze on flight-tests of the Taepodong-1
and Taepodong-2 and an end to North Korean missile exports.
Successful U.S. efforts to halt Russian nuclear and missile exports
to Iran would also constrain Iran's capabilities in this area. It also
appears that more moderate political leaders are emerging in
Iran. Such political changes could lead Iran to end its hostile
attitude towards the United States and its allies, reducing the threat posed
by any missiles and WMD. Libya also appears
to be adopting a more moderate foreign policy.
It is also possible to attack enemy missiles
in wartime before they can be fired. Highly accurate U.S. cruise
missiles could be used to destroy enemy missiles with fixed launchers,
especially those that use liquid rocket fuel and hence take a long time to
prepare for firing. Mobile missiles, however, are harder to destroy preemptively.
During the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq used mobile launchers for its short-range Scud
missiles. Although the United States devoted much effort to hunting the mobile
missiles, it was not able to destroy a single Iraqi Scud
on the ground. As a result, many Scuds were launched against Israel and U.S.
forces in Saudi Arabia. Although the United States has worked hard to address
this problem since the Gulf War, how much progress has been made remains secret.
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